Best NFL Player Props & Picks: Dolphins vs. Colts (Week 10)
The Miami Dolphins visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday for a Week 10 matchup, with IND -3.5 and a total of 38.5 on the supplied odds board. Looking for Dolphins vs. Colts player props? The BettingPros NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet has generated +210 units and a 4.8% ROI across 4,395 picks rated 3-5 stars, with a 53.8% win rate and a five-week winning streak. Rushing-yard props lead the way at +79.7 units, followed by receptions at +52.6 units. Below are our matchup analysis, picks, same game parlay and player prop tools.
NFL Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Dolphins vs. Colts
Dolphins vs. Colts Game Information & Odds
- When: Sunday, November 15, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
- Spread: IND -3.5
- Total: 38.5
Matchup odds supplied via DraftKings. Analyst picks and parlay prices below reflect the source articles and may differ from the matchup odds above.
Here are Andrew Erickson's predictions for Dolphins vs. Colts. Read all of his NFL Week 10 picks and predictions.
Dolphins vs. Colts Preview & Picks
Erickson's pick: Under 39.5
My favorite angle here is the Under. Closing totals of 40 or less are 10-6 Under in 2026, and totals of 39.5 or less are 9-5 Under. I expected this number to be closer to 39.5 than 42.5, and it had already moved from 42.5 to 41.5 in the hour and a half before I recorded the early lookahead (now bet down even further to 38.5). The Colts have gotten worse since the trade deadline after jettisoning Josh Downs and Keenan Allen. Malik Willis was placed on IR.
Kyle McCord is an unproven starter with zero NFL experience, and Miami’s offense has been poor even with Willis, scoring 16 points per game and just 9 last week against the Lions. The Dolphins have scored more than 13 points on the road only once this season, against the Jets.
There is some history on the Colts’ side as well. Shane Steichen faced the Packers defense led by now Dolphins HC Jeff Hafley in Week 2 of the 2024 season (Hafley was GB’s DC), and the final score was 10-16. Bobby Slowik was with Miami last year when the Dolphins faced Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, and Miami scored just 8 points in Indianapolis.
From an X’s and O’s standpoint, McCord is going to be constantly under pressure. Malik Willis faced pressure on 42.9% of his dropbacks this season, the third-highest rate among quarterbacks. The Colts have generated the lowest pressure rate in the NFL this season (27.5%), but they convert pressure into sacks at the fifth-highest rate (23.2%). Dolphins center Aaron Brewer also missed practice with a concussion and will not play. WR Chris Bell is also out for Miami.
I do think Miami can hang here, because the Dolphins’ defense plays hard. Again, it held the Lions to 19 points and 270 net yards in a 19-9 home loss, which was just 28 combined points. The strength of that defense is actually its run defense, which allows just 3.8 yards per carry, the eighth-best mark in the NFL, though it ranks 19th in EPA per rush, and the goal is to slow down Jonathan Taylor. The Colts have no wide receivers, and the Dolphins have no secondary, so in my opinion this is a wash.
Indianapolis ranks 31st in EPA per pass play, and Miami ranks 32nd in pass defense, which makes this a weakness on weakness. The Dolphins are also the most run-heavy team in the league in pass rate over expectation, and the Colts rank 10th. Run, run, run and a cloud of dust.
Under. Under. Under. But if somebody does find the end zone…I have a certain lead.
Tyler Warren has scored in 3 of 7 games this season. The Colts have no other wide receivers to throw to after trading Josh Downs and Keenan Allen, and Warren also occasionally sees goal-line carries. He is averaging nearly 1 red-zone attempt or target per game this season. Miami allows the 5th-most passing touchdowns per game and the 8th-most touchdowns to tight ends. This is a 3-star bet on the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets Sheet.
Props & Picks
Best NFL Same Game Parlay for Dolphins vs. Colts
Here is our top NFL same game parlay for Dolphins vs. Colts. View all of our Week 10 NFL same game parlays. Parlay odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Leg 1: Ollie Gordon II Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts (+101)
- Leg 2: Ollie Gordon II 80+ Rushing Yards (+109)
- Leg 3: Tyler Warren 50+ Receiving Yards (+107)
Kyle McCord will start at quarterback for Miami this week, with Malik Willis landing on IR. This will be McCord's first NFL regular-season appearance since he was drafted last year. His inexperience should push Miami toward a run-heavy game plan, giving Ollie Gordon II plenty of work in a favorable matchup.
The Colts allow the third-most rushing yards per game and the fourth-most yards per carry. It's an ideal defense for Miami to lean on the run as it introduces a new quarterback. Gordon is averaging 19.5 carries over the past four games in his workhorse role. He also has at least 16 carries in five of the last six games. Plus, Gordon has eclipsed 80+ rushing yards three times in this stretch.
Meanwhile, Tyler Warren should be plenty involved in the Colts' passing attack. Indianapolis traded away both Keenan Allen and Josh Downs this week. That leaves a ton of unproven wideouts on the depth chart. Expect Daniel Jones to lean on his tight end with the rapport already there, especially against this defense.
Miami allows the eighth-most receiving yards and seventh-most receptions per game to tight ends this year. Admittedly, Warren's production has been up and down. However, he can reach 50+ yards in a matchup where he’s likely to see more action. He's averaged 48.2 yards over the past five games, with at least 41 yards in four of them. Warren will be on the high end of that against a depleted Colts receiving corps.
Parlay Odds: +420
Best NFL Player Props for Dolphins vs. Colts
We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the NFL player prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best NFL player prop bet picks. View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
Our NFL Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily NFL projections.
What is an NFL player prop bet?
An NFL player prop bet is a type of wager where you’re betting on the performance of a specific player in a game rather than the overall outcome. For example, you might place a bet on how many passing yards a quarterback will throw for, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. It’s a fun way to get more invested in the action, especially if you’re confident in how a particular player will perform, regardless of who wins or loses the game. It’s like focusing on one slice of the pie instead of the whole thing.
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