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NFL Betting Primer, Picks & Predictions: Week 10

Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Nov 14, 2026
Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Nov 14, 2026
NFL Betting Primer, Picks & Predictions: Week 10

Andrew Erickson's best NFL bets for Week 10 are the Steelers +3.5 at Cincinnati (his favorite bet of the slate), Ravens -4 vs. the Chargers, Chiefs -3 at Atlanta, Titans +11 vs. Jacksonville, the Over 55.5 in 49ers-Cowboys and the Under 39.5 in Dolphins-Colts. He's also betting eight player props, led by a 5-star Nico Collins Under 4.5 receptions. Erickson is 60-46 (56.6%) on the season after a 7-4 Week 9. Below are his picks, predictions, and the key betting trends for every Sunday and Monday game on the Week 10 slate.

Welcome back to yet another edition of Andrew Erickson’s NFL Betting Primer powered by BettingPros.

My Week 9 betting card finished 7-4 with one prop voided (1-3 on sides/totals and 6-1 on player props), although my props on the Week 9 Props Show went 4-0.

Season record: 60-46 overall for 56.6%.

The Giants -3 at Philadelphia (New York won 19-11) was the only game-level winner. The Raiders +10 at the 49ers (San Francisco won 38-17), the Over 50.5 in Lions-Dolphins (28 points), and the Under 40.5 in Texans-Chargers (Houston won 44-22 and the game finished with 66 points) all missed. On props, Caleb Douglas Over 40.5 receiving yards (70), Tetaiora McMillan Under 5.5 receptions (4), Mike Washington Under 9.5 rushing attempts (6), Blake Corum Over 48.5 rushing yards (58), Drew Lock Under 28.5 pass attempts, and Aaron Jones Under 32.5 rushing yards (16) all cashed. Ashton Jeanty over 35.5 receiving yards missed (-5). George Pickens Over 55.5 receiving yards was voided because he was inactive.

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Four things stand out in the league-wide trends heading into Week 10. First, home teams are having an ugly stretch. Home teams went 3-11 ATS in Week 9 (home underdogs went 0-8, and the one neutral-site game was Madrid), the second time in three weeks that home teams cover roughly one game in five after going 3-10 in Week 7. Home teams are now 57-68-4 ATS for the season (45.6% of decided bets, 7 neutral-site games excluded), and home underdogs are 20-29-2 ATS (51 games, 15 outright wins). This week’s home underdogs on the listed numbers are the Jets (+8.5 vs. Buffalo), Titans (+11 vs. Jacksonville), Browns (+5.5 vs. Houston), Falcons (+3.5 vs. Kansas City) and Raiders (+6.5 vs. Seattle), plus the Cardinals and Cowboys.

Second, low totals keep leaning Under, and big totals are mixed. Totals of 42 or lower are 14-22 toward the Under for the season (61.1%, 36 games) after going 2-2 in Week 9 (Jaguars-Ravens and Texans-Chargers went Over; Giants-Eagles and Cardinals-Seahawks stayed Under). Totals of 50 or more are 12-10 Over after a 1-3 week (only Raiders-49ers went Over), and totals of 52 or more are 7-4 Over. Seven Week 10 games sit at 42 or lower on the listed numbers (Commanders-Giants 40.5 to 41.5, Vikings-Packers 41.5 to 42.5, Dolphins-Colts 37.5 to 39.5, Texans-Browns 40.5 to 41.5, Seahawks-Raiders 40.5, Rams-Cardinals 38.5 to 39.5 and Chargers-Ravens 38.5 to 39.0) and three sit at 50 or higher (Patriots-Lions 50.5 to 51.5, Bills-Jets 50.5 to 51.5 and 49ers-Cowboys 55.5 to 56.5), so watch the closing numbers. Scoring ticked down in Week 9 to 44.5 points per game against an average closing total of 45.8.

Third, prime-time underdogs have cooled off. Underdogs covered 10 straight prime-time games earlier in the season, but they are 2-7 ATS over the last nine (0-3 in Week 7, 1-2 in Week 8 and 1-2 in Week 9, with Tampa Bay’s 27-24 loss at Chicago the lone cover). Prime-time underdogs are still 16-11-1 ATS for the season, and favorites are 11-16-1; Thursday-night underdogs are 5-4 ATS (nine games), and prime-time home underdogs are 6-3 ATS. The prime-time games this week are Commanders-Giants on Thursday (Giants -1.5 at in its own primer), Steelers-Bengals on Sunday night (Cincinnati -3.5 at BettingPros) and Chargers-Ravens on Monday night (Baltimore -4.0).

Fourth, big favorites got their revenge and rest still matters. All four favorites of 7 or more covered in Week 9 (Jaguars, Chiefs, Seahawks and 49ers), so underdogs of 7 or more fell to 19-12-2 ATS (33 games, 9 outright wins) from 19-8-2. Teams with at least three more days of rest than their opponent are 22-9-1 ATS and 27-5 straight up in 2026 (4-2 ATS in Week 9), and the favorites in that spot are 18-4-1 ATS (23-0 straight up). Pittsburgh (14 days vs. 7 for Cincinnati) and Tennessee (14 vs. 10 for Jacksonville) are both coming off byes and are underdogs with the edge, a group that is 4-5 ATS, while teams off a bye are 10-4 ATS this season. The flip side: underdogs facing an opponent with at least three extra days of rest are 4-18-1 ATS and 0-23 straight up. Teams coming off a loss of 20 or more points are 13-7-1 ATS (21 games), including Cleveland’s cover in Week 9 and non-covers by Baltimore and Indianapolis.

A reminder that Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay are on bye, so we have 14 games this week. Commanders-Giants on Thursday night has its own stand-alone primer, and Patriots-Lions kicks off at 9:30 AM ET in Munich, Germany.

For my thoughts on all the games on the Week 10 slate, be sure to check out the weekly lookahead lines show I do every week with Ryan Wormley (Monday release following every Sunday slate) on the BettingPros YouTube channel:

Now let's get into business because I’ve got a feeling the underdogs are ready to bite BACK in Week 10 after the favorites ran hot in Week 9. When in doubt…side with the dog.

NFL Betting Primer, Picks & Predictions: Week 10

League-Wide Trends

Week 9 Recap

  • Favorites went 12-3 ATS; underdogs went 3-12 ATS (15 games). Underdogs won 1 of the 15 outright (the Packers at New England).
  • Home teams went 3-11 ATS; road teams went 11-3 ATS (the Bengals-Falcons game in Madrid was neutral). That is a reversal from Week 8, when home teams went 10-4.
  • Home underdogs went 0-8 ATS (3-5 toward the Over). Road underdogs went 3-3.
  • Overall O/U: 7-8. Totals of 42 or lower went 2-2, totals above 42 went 5-6, and totals of 50 or more went 1-3 (Raiders-49ers Over; Bengals-Falcons, Cowboys-Colts and Lions-Dolphins Under).
  • Favorites of 7 or more went 4-0 ATS (Jaguars at -8.5, Chiefs and Seahawks at -9.5, 49ers at -8.5). Divisional underdogs went 0-2 ATS and 0-2 straight up (the Eagles and Cardinals).

Full Season 2026 (through Week 9)

  • Favorites went 69-62-5 ATS; underdogs went 62-69-5 ATS (136 games). Underdogs have won 42 of 136 games outright (31%; one game was a tie).
  • Home teams went 57-68-4 ATS; road teams went 68-57-4 ATS (7 neutral-site games excluded).
  • Overall O/U: 69-67.
  • Closing totals of 42 or less are 14-22 toward the Under (61.1%, 36 games), including 2-2 in Week 9; closing totals above 42 are 55-45 Over (100 games), including 5-6 in Week 9.
  • Closing totals of 50 or more are 12-10 Over (22 games), and went 1-3 in Week 9.

Home Underdogs (through Week 9)

  • Home underdogs are 20-29-2 ATS (51 games; neutral-site games excluded), which is 40.8% of decided bets. That is down from 20-21-2 a week ago after the 0-8 week.
  • Home underdogs have won 15 of those 51 games outright (29%), and the O/U is 27-24 toward the Over.
  • Divisional home underdogs are 8-7 ATS (6-9 straight up, 15 games); non-divisional home underdogs are 12-22-2 ATS (36 games, 9 outright wins) and 21-15 toward the Over, in games that averaged 48.6 points against an average closing total of 44.8.

Prime-Time Highlight (Wed Opener/TNF/SNF/MNF, through Week 9)

  • Favorites went 11-16-1 ATS; underdogs went 16-11-1 ATS (28 games). Underdogs have won 13 of the 28 outright.
  • Home teams went 14-12-1 ATS; road teams went 12-14-1 ATS (1 neutral-site game excluded).
  • Overall O/U: 14-14.
  • Streaks: prime-time underdogs covered 10 straight games earlier in the season, then are 2-7 over the last nine (0-3 in Week 7, 1-2 in Week 8 and 1-2 in Week 9; the Bears, then the Buccaneers, were the lone covers on Monday and Sunday night).
  • Prime-time home underdogs are 6-3 ATS (all 6 covers were outright wins; the Ravens and Vikings lost in Week 9).
  • By slot: Thursday-night underdogs are 5-4 ATS (including the Melbourne opener), Sunday-night underdogs 6-3 and Monday-night underdogs 5-4; the O/U is 5-4 on Thursday, 5-4 on Sunday and 4-5 on Monday. The Wednesday opener (Patriots-Seahawks) was a push on the spread and stayed Under.
  • Prime-time games with totals of 48 or higher are 4-4 Over (8 games), and prime-time games with totals of 45 or lower are 5-6 toward the Over (11 games).

Totals by Range (through Week 9)

  • Closing totals of 40 or lower: 6-10 Over (16 games; the average closing total was 38.8 and the average game finished with 36.2 points).
  • Closing totals of 40.5 to 42: 8-12 Over (20 games; 41.0 average total, 40.4 average points). Combined, totals of 42 or lower are 14-22 (61.1% Under, 36 games; 40.1 average total, 38.5 average points).
  • Closing totals of 42.5 to 45: 20-15 Over (35 games; 43.6 average total, 45.0 average points). Underdogs are 19-13-3 ATS in this range and favorites 13-19-3.
  • Closing totals of 45.5 to 47.5: 17-14 Over (31 games; 46.6 average total, 50.8 average points).
  • Closing totals of 48 to 49.5: 6-6 Over (12 games; 48.7 average total, 47.4 average points). Totals of 48 or higher are 18-16 Over (34 games).
  • Closing totals of 50 to 51.5: 5-6 Over (11 games; 51.1 average total, 46.8 average points). Totals of 52 or higher are 7-4 Over (11 games; 53.9 average total, 56.7 average points), which is what keeps the mark for totals of 50 or more at 12-10 Over.
  • Scoring by week (average combined points / average closing total): Week 1 49.4 / 45.2, Week 2 40.4 / 45.5, Week 3 47.2 / 45.0, Week 4 47.8 / 45.1, Week 5 48.4 / 44.5, Week 6 43.6 / 45.6, Week 7 45.1 / 44.9, Week 8 46.6 / 45.5, Week 9 44.5 / 45.8. The season average is 45.9 points per game against an average closing total of 45.2, and the Over is 69-67 (week-by-week O/U: 8-8, 6-10, 8-8, 9-7, 8-7, 7-7, 9-5, 7-7, 7-8).

Divisional Games (through Week 9)

  • Divisional underdogs are 24-18 ATS (57.1%, 42 games) and 17-24-1 straight up; divisional favorites are 18-24 ATS. In non-divisional games, underdogs are 38-51-5 ATS (94 games) and 25 of 94 won outright.
  • Home divisional underdogs are 8-7 ATS and 6-9 straight up (15 games), and those games are 6-9 toward the Over (42.3 average points against a 42.7 average total).
  • Road divisional underdogs are 14-11 ATS and 9-16 straight up (25 games), and those games are 14-11 toward the Over (44.1 average points against a 45.0 average total).
  • Divisional home teams are 19-21 ATS and road teams 21-19 ATS. Divisional games overall are 21-21 on the total (43.7 average points against a 44.2 average total).
  • Non-divisional underdogs are 12-22-2 ATS at home (36 games) and 25-26-2 ATS on the road (53 games).

Spread Size and Roles (through Week 9)

  • Games with a spread of 3 or fewer (51 games): underdogs are 20-28-3 ATS and 20-30-1 straight up.
  • Spreads of 3.5 to 6.5 (52 games): underdogs are 23-29 ATS and 13-39 straight up.
  • Spreads of 7 to 9.5 (25 games): underdogs are 14-9-2 ATS and 7-18 straight up. Spreads of 10 or more (8 games): underdogs are 5-3 ATS and 2-6 straight up. All spreads of 7 or more combined: underdogs are 19-12-2 ATS (61.3% of decided bets) and 9-24 straight up.
  • By role: home favorites are 37-39-2 ATS and road favorites 29-20-2; home underdogs are 20-29-2 ATS and road underdogs 39-37-2 (78 games). Home favorites of 7 or more are 9-15-1 ATS (25 games), and home favorites of 10 or more are 2-5 (7 games; none closed at 10 in Week 9).

Rest and Schedule Spots (through Week 9)

  • Teams with at least three more days of rest than their opponent are 22-9-1 ATS and 27-5 straight up (32 games). Favorites in that spot are 18-4-1 ATS and 23-0 straight up; underdogs with the rest edge are 4-5 ATS and 4-5 straight up.
  • Underdogs facing an opponent with at least three more days of rest are 4-18-1 ATS and 0-23 straight up.
  • Teams coming off their bye are 10-4 ATS (14 games) and 6-8 toward the Over; the Week 9 off-bye teams (Texans, Giants, 49ers) covered and the Saints did not.
  • Teams coming off a loss of 20 or more points are 13-7-1 ATS (21 games). Cleveland covered in Week 9; Baltimore and Indianapolis did not. Teams coming off any loss are 58-54-7 ATS (119 games), and teams coming off a win are 57-61-1.

Margins and Key Numbers (through Week 9)

  • Of 136 games, 29 (21%) were decided by 3 points or fewer, 70 (51%) by 7 or fewer, 46 (34%) by 14 or more, and 23 (17%) by 21 or more. Twenty-one games ended on a margin of exactly 3 and 13 on exactly 7.
  • Games with a spread of exactly 3 (22 games): underdogs are 7-12-3 ATS and 7-15 straight up. At 3.5 (27 games) underdogs are 12-15 ATS; at 2.5 (18 games) underdogs are 9-9 ATS and every one of those covers was an outright win.
  • Games with a spread of exactly 7 (10 games): underdogs are 6-2-2 ATS; at 7.5 (5 games), underdogs are 3-2 ATS without winning outright.

How This Maps to Week 10

  • Spreads of 7 or more on the listed numbers: Jaguars -10 at Tennessee and Bills -7.5 at the Jets, and Rams -9.0 at Arizona.
  • Divisional games: Commanders-Giants, Vikings-Packers, Panthers-Saints, Bills-Jets, Jaguars-Titans, Rams-Cardinals and Steelers-Bengals. Divisional underdogs are 24-18 ATS, and home divisional underdogs 8-7 (the Jets, Titans and Cardinals are home divisional underdogs this week; the Commanders, Vikings, Panthers and Steelers are road divisional underdogs).
  • Home underdogs on the listed numbers: Jets, Titans, Browns, Falcons and Raiders, Cardinals and Cowboys.
  • Totals of 42 or lower: Commanders-Giants, Vikings-Packers, Dolphins-Colts, Texans-Browns and Seahawks-Raiders, Rams-Cardinals and Chargers-Ravens. Totals of 50 or higher: Patriots-Lions, Bills-Jets and 49ers-Cowboys.
  • Rest edges: Steelers (14 days vs. 7 for the Bengals) and Titans (14 vs. 10 for the Jaguars) are underdogs coming off byes. Both Thursday teams are on four days of rest.
  • Neutral site: Patriots-Lions in Munich (Detroit is the designated home team and a 1.5-point favorite on BettingPros best prices). Favorites in 2026 neutral-site games are 3-3-1 ATS (7 games), and the O/U is 2-5.

Week 10 Official Plays

New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Patriots ML

Trends

  • As a favorite in a neutral-site game (the role it plays here), DET is 4-3 ATS (57%) and 4-3 O/U in 2026 (n=7, through Week 9). Overall: across all games as a favorite, 4-3 ATS and 4-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-4 ATS and 5-3 O/U. Neutral-site games are excluded from home/road splits.
  • As an underdog in a neutral-site game (the role it plays here), NE is 1-2-1 ATS (33%) and 2-2 O/U in 2026 (n=4, through Week 9). Overall: across all games as an underdog, 1-2-1 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-5-1 ATS and 6-3 O/U. Neutral-site games are excluded from home/road splits.
  • NE streaks through Week 9: 5-4 straight up (1-game losing streak), 3-5-1 against the spread (4-game non-cover streak), 6-3 toward the total (6-game Over streak). DET streaks through Week 9: 6-2 straight up (4-game win streak), 4-4 against the spread (2-game cover streak), 5-3 toward the total (3-game Under streak). NE comes in off a 27-45 home loss to GB as a 3.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 9). DET comes in off a 19-9 road win at MIA as a 6.5-point favorite, covering (Week 9).
  • International games: favorites are 52-18 straight up, and 43-26-1 ATS (62%) with a 31-39 O/U (44% Over) in NFL international games per the Covers.com base logged in the trends database (rolled through the Week 9 Madrid game). In 2026’s seven neutral-site games (Melbourne, Brazil, London three times, Paris and Madrid), favorites are 3-3-1 ATS and the O/U is 2-5.
  • Games with closing totals of 50 or more are 12-10 toward the Over in 2026 (22 games, through Week 9), averaging 51.8 combined points against an average closing total of 52.5. Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): NE 46.4 against 45.2 (6-3 O/U); DET 51.4 against 51.2 (5-3 O/U). NE is 2-4 ATS and 6-0 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 4 through Week 9); DET is 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 9).

Injuries

Betting Preview

The Lions defense is playing better: DET has won three straight games (GB, MIN, MIA) without scoring more than 20 points for the first time since Weeks 5-8, 1974 (Next Gen Stats). Detroit’s defense is allowing 15.5 points per game since Week 5, second-best in the NFL, after allowing 31.8 points per game through the first four weeks, which ranked second-worst in the NFL. The Lions have allowed 21 or fewer points in four straight games for the first time since Weeks 7-15, 2016 (eight straight games). The Lions’ defense has allowed a 38.2% completion percentage on downfield passes since Brian Branch made his 2026 season debut in Week 7, the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL over that span (NGS).

The Lions also defend what Drake Maye does best… off-script plays and extended dropbacks. The Lions’ defense has allowed just four completions for 123 yards, a touchdown, and an interception when quarterbacks have held onto the ball for at least four seconds after the snap this season (i.e., extended dropbacks), resulting in a league-low 15.4% completion percentage.
Maye has recorded a league-high 46.8% success rate when holding the ball for at least four seconds after the snap this season (i.e., extended dropbacks), the highest rate by a qualified quarterback in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Detroit has also recorded a sack on 19 of its 45 extended dropbacks faced (42.2%), the second-highest sack rate in the NFL behind only the Steelers (52.8%). Detroit has allowed just four total successful plays on extended dropbacks, resulting in a league-low 8.9% success rate, the lowest rate allowed by a defense in a season during the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).

Could go either way with the side, as I’ve contemplated both the Patriots and Lions winning. The Pats rebounding off a big loss was my early lean, but I’m acknowledging DET might not be as bad defensively. Therefore, that variable has entered into my handicap of this overseas contest. Still…hardly a murderer’s row of offenses DET has faced outside of GB (also a divisional matchup where points were left on the cutting room floor). A.J. Brown and Rhamondre Stevenson also seem like they actually might play. Because I think this game is really closer to a pick ’em…I’ll take my chances with NE on the moneyline. Mike Vrabel’s team tends to bounce back after losses – 5-1 ATS after a loss since 2025. 6-0 SU after a loss.

So although I felt on the Week 10 Predictions Tailgate podcast that DET could smoke NE…I think I was letting recency bias take over. Pat Fitzmaurice talked more sense into me with backing NE as the sharp side here. Subscribe to the Tailgate Podcast here (help us get to 3K).

Amon-Ra St. Brown leads all wide receivers in red-zone targets per game, and New England allows the 6th-most receiving touchdowns (14 this season). This is a homecoming for St. Brown. His mother is from Germany; he has dual citizenship in Germany and the United States, and he speaks fluent German. He has not scored since Week 3, so I think he is due. Look for the Lions to dial up some red-zone plays for St. Brown to hit paydirt.

Props

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Packers -3, Player Props

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), MIN is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 0-2 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 9). Overall: across all road games, 3-1 ATS and 0-4 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-2 ATS and 0-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-4 ATS and 1-7 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), GB is 2-1 ATS (67%) and 1-2 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 9). Overall: across all home games, 3-1 ATS and 1-3 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-2-1 ATS and 1-4 O/U; across all 2026 games, 5-3-1 ATS and 3-6 O/U.
  • MIN streaks through Week 9: 6-2 straight up (2-game losing streak), 4-4 against the spread (3-game non-cover streak), 1-7 toward the total (7-game Under streak). GB streaks through Week 9: 6-3 straight up (2-game win streak), 5-3-1 against the spread (5-game cover streak), 3-6 toward the total (1-game Over streak). MIN comes in off a 6-23 home loss to BUF as a 3.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 9; MNF). GB comes in off a 45-27 road win at NE as a 3.5-point underdog, covering (Week 9).
  • Divisional underdogs are 24-18 ATS in 2026 (42 games, through Week 9): home divisional underdogs 8-7 (15 games) and road divisional underdogs 14-11 (25 games). MIN is a road divisional underdog in this game.
  • Games with closing totals of 42 or less are 14-22 toward the Over in 2026 (36 games, through Week 9), averaging 38.5 combined points against an average closing total of 40.1. Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): MIN 32.8 against 43.9 (1-7 O/U); GB 45.2 against 46.9 (3-6 O/U). MIN is 2-4 ATS and 0-6 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 9); GB is 5-0-1 ATS and 1-5 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 4 through Week 9).

Injuries

Betting Preview

It’s not enough points for Minnesota…even with the return of Kirk Cousins.  I think the Packers should be favored by more than a field goal given how good this offense has been, with Jordan Love playing at an MVP level. The first meeting was a weird one. Green Bay was up early, and then the Vikings scored a bunch of unanswered points to win 39-22, fueled by three separate Green Bay giveaways and failures in Vikings territory. Everything that could have gone wrong for Green Bay did, with interceptions and other plays coming back on penalties, and everything went right for Minnesota.

That makes this a good get-right spot for Green Bay. Teams most often split when they’re evenly matched, so I think the Packers get a little revenge, especially with the Vikings playing on a Monday night and coming off a short week.

Per Next Gen Stats: The Vikings’ defense has allowed league lows in receptions per game (3.9), fantasy points per game (9.3), touchdown receptions (1), catch rate (57.4%, the lowest since 2023), and catch rate over expected (-8.2%, the lowest since 2023) to tight ends this season. Kraft is coming off his lowest-scoring fantasy game of the season with 1.9 points, after recording an 11.1% target share and a 0.3% receiving yards share in Week 9 against the Patriots. The Packers TE had just 3 catches back in Week 1 vs. MIN.

No Josh Jacobs this week due to his finger injury - but MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks should return to join Strong and Kaleb Johnson in the Packers’ backfield. Pierre Strong is mostly a special teams guy with pass protection, but I think his reps reduce dramatically with Brooks and Lloyd back, even with Jacobs out.

He's been under 10.5 rushing yards in 3/5 games played this season. The Sharps are backing Pierre Strong Jr. under 10.5 rushing yards at -117 (based on $2.9K in prediction market liquidity).

Props

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Panthers +2.5, Over 48.5

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), CAR is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026 (n=1, through Week 9). Overall: across all road games, 2-2 ATS and 0-4 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-3 ATS and 3-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-5 ATS and 4-4 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), NO is 0-3 ATS (0%) and 3-0 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 9). Overall: across all home games, 0-4 ATS and 3-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-3 ATS and 4-0 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-5 ATS and 5-3 O/U.
  • CAR streaks through Week 9: 3-5 straight up (3-game losing streak), 3-5 against the spread (3-game non-cover streak), 4-4 toward the total (1-game Over streak). The Panthers’ last 7 road games have gone UNDER the total.
  • NO streaks through Week 9: 3-5 straight up (1-game win streak), 3-5 against the spread (2-game non-cover streak), 5-3 toward the total (1-game Over streak). CAR comes in off a 21-26 home loss to DEN as a 3.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 9). NO comes in off a 23-22 home win over CLE as a 5.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 9).
  • Divisional underdogs are 24-18 ATS in 2026 (42 games, through Week 9): home divisional underdogs 8-7 (15 games) and road divisional underdogs 14-11 (25 games). CAR is a road divisional underdog in this game.
  • Games with closing totals from 45.5 to 49.5 are 23-20 toward the Over in 2026 (43 games, through Week 9), averaging 49.9 combined points against an average closing total of 47.2. Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): CAR 52.2 against 45.2 (4-4 O/U); NO 50.1 against 45.2 (5-3 O/U). CAR is 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 9); NO is 1-5 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 9).

Injuries

Betting Preview

When you have to go to overtime to beat the Browns at home and barely come away with the win, and you still don’t cover, that doesn’t give me much confidence that they take care of business against Carolina. The Saints have not been good at home: they are 0-4 against the spread there, and they’ve been bad against the spread as a home favorite.

Bryce Young played a little better than expected against Denver, a tougher defense, and he was still productive even though 13 penalties for 119 yards killed the Cardiac Cats. Carolina has dropped three games in a row, and I don’t know if the Panthers are pressing a bit. The thing that makes it hard to choose a side is that the Saints swept Carolina last year with Tyler Shough starting both games, so this is the one matchup they were able to expose. But I don’t think this is the same Panthers team. Their defense is still bad, but Young has definitely played significantly better, and the Saints’ defense doesn’t scare me in any way. Road divisional underdogs have been on the profitable side this season, so I’ll take Carolina catching the +2.5. The Saints got OT Kelvin Banks last week, but will be without two additional OL starters, Erik McCoy and Taliese Fuaga, this week.

Also like the over in this game, considering both teams rank top-5 in pass rate this season. Both defenses rank below average in overall passing efficiency, rushing efficiency, and pressure rate. All Saints home games this season, when they have been favored, have gone over the total (3-0).

Jordyn Tyson made his NFL debut in Week 9, catching 4 of 5 targets for 30 yards (13.9% adjusted target share) on 18 of 75 snaps (24%). He was just two yards shy of scoring the first touchdown of his career last week. He caught a 9-yard pass on 2nd-and-10 at the Cleveland 11 (second quarter, 8:11) that took him to the Cleveland 2, and he fumbled when Carson Schwesinger hit him. But there was clearly an emphasis, and a play call by head coach Kellen Moore, to get the rookie wide receiver his first NFL touchdown. If at first you don’t succeed, try again. The rookie ran a route on 40% of dropbacks (16 routes run), and the coaches said after the game that they were easing him in and would continue to build his role. He has a hyper-targeted 31% target rate per route run.

Props

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Under 39.5

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), MIA is 2-2 ATS (50%) and 2-2 O/U in 2026 (n=4, through Week 9). Overall: across all road games, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-4-1 ATS and 4-4 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-4-1 ATS and 4-4 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), IND is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026 (n=1, through Week 9). Overall: across all home games, 1-3 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-5 ATS and 5-4 O/U.
  • MIA streaks through Week 9: 1-7 straight up (2-game losing streak), 3-4-1 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 4-4 toward the total (1-game Under streak). IND streaks through Week 9: 2-7 straight up (5-game losing streak), 4-5 against the spread (2-game non-cover streak), 5-4 toward the total (1-game Under streak). MIA comes in off a 9-19 home loss to DET as a 6.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 9). IND comes in off a 23-27 home loss to DAL as a 3.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 9).
  • Games with closing totals of 42 or less are 14-22 toward the Over in 2026 (36 games, through Week 9), averaging 38.5 combined points against an average closing total of 40.1. Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): MIA 40.8 against 43.4 (4-4 O/U); IND 48.1 against 45.5 (5-4 O/U). MIA is 3-2-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 9); IND is 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 4 through Week 9).

Injuries

Betting Preview

My favorite angle here is the Under. Closing totals of 40 or less are 10-6 Under in 2026, and totals of 39.5 or less are 9-5 Under. I expected this number to be closer to 39.5 than 42.5, and it had already moved from 42.5 to 41.5 in the hour and a half before I recorded the early lookahead (now bet down even further to 38.5). The Colts have gotten worse since the trade deadline after jettisoning Josh Downs and Keenan Allen. Malik Willis was placed on IR.

Kyle McCord is an unproven starter with zero NFL experience, and Miami’s offense has been poor even with Willis, scoring 16 points per game and just 9 last week against the Lions. The Dolphins have scored more than 13 points on the road only once this season, against the Jets.

There is some history on the Colts’ side as well. Shane Steichen faced the Packers defense led by now Dolphins HC Jeff Hafley in Week 2 of the 2024 season (Hafley was GB’s DC), and the final score was 10-16. Bobby Slowik was with Miami last year when the Dolphins faced Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, and Miami scored just 8 points in Indianapolis.

From an X’s and O’s standpoint, McCord is going to be constantly under pressure. Malik Willis faced pressure on 42.9% of his dropbacks this season, the third-highest rate among quarterbacks. The Colts have generated the lowest pressure rate in the NFL this season (27.5%), but they convert pressure into sacks at the fifth-highest rate (23.2%). Dolphins center Aaron Brewer also missed practice with a concussion and will not play. WR Chris Bell is also out for Miami.

I do think Miami can hang here, because the Dolphins’ defense plays hard. Again, it held the Lions to 19 points and 270 net yards in a 19-9 home loss, which was just 28 combined points. The strength of that defense is actually its run defense, which allows just 3.8 yards per carry, the eighth-best mark in the NFL, though it ranks 19th in EPA per rush, and the goal is to slow down Jonathan Taylor. The Colts have no wide receivers, and the Dolphins have no secondary, so in my opinion this is a wash.

Indianapolis ranks 31st in EPA per pass play, and Miami ranks 32nd in pass defense, which makes this a weakness on weakness. The Dolphins are also the most run-heavy team in the league in pass rate over expectation, and the Colts rank 10th. Run, run, run and a cloud of dust.

Under. Under. Under. But if somebody does find the end zone…I have a certain lead.

 

Tyler Warren has scored in 3 of 7 games this season. The Colts have no other wide receivers to throw to after trading Josh Downs and Keenan Allen, and Warren also occasionally sees goal-line carries. He is averaging nearly 1 red-zone attempt or target per game this season. Miami allows the 5th-most passing touchdowns per game and the 8th-most touchdowns to tight ends. This is a 3-star bet on the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets Sheet.

Props

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Props

Trends

  • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), BUF is 2-1 ATS (67%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 9). Overall: across all road games, 3-1 ATS and 3-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 5-2 ATS and 4-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 6-2 ATS and 5-3 O/U.
  • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), NYJ is 2-0 ATS (100%) and 0-2 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 9). Overall: across all home games, 3-2 ATS and 2-3 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-3 ATS and 2-4 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-5 ATS and 4-5 O/U.
  • BUF streaks through Week 9: 7-1 straight up (4-game win streak), 6-2 against the spread (2-game cover streak), 5-3 toward the total (2-game Under streak).
  • NYJ streaks through Week 9: 2-7 straight up (4-game losing streak), 4-5 against the spread (3-game non-cover streak), 4-5 toward the total (1-game Under streak). BUF comes in off a 23-6 road win at MIN as a 3.5-point favorite, covering (Week 9; MNF). NYJ comes in off a 12-35 road loss at KC as a 9.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 9). NYJ has failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs.
  • Divisional underdogs are 24-18 ATS in 2026 (42 games, through Week 9): home divisional underdogs 8-7 (15 games) and road divisional underdogs 14-11 (25 games). NYJ is a home divisional underdog in this game.
  • Favorites laying 7 or more points are 12-19-2 ATS in 2026 (33 games; 24 won outright, through Week 9). Home favorites of 7 or more are 9-15-1 ATS (25 games) and road favorites of 7 or more are 3-3-1 ATS (7 games). BUF is laying 7.5 in this game.
  • Games with closing totals of 50 or more are 12-10 toward the Over in 2026 (22 games, through Week 9), averaging 51.8 combined points against an average closing total of 52.5. Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): BUF 55.4 against 50.9 (5-3 O/U); NYJ 45.0 against 43.4 (4-5 O/U). BUF is 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 9); NYJ is 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 4 through Week 9).

Injuries

Betting Preview

Breece Hall has gone over this number in 3 straight games and has caught at least 2 passes in every game this season. The Bills have allowed the last 8 running backs to go over their receptions prop. They are tied for the second-most catches allowed to running backs this season (5.8 per game) and rank No. 1 in running back targets faced. The game script versus Buffalo should be negative/pass-happy for the Jets. Easy over.

Props

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Props

Trends

  • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), HOU is 2-1 ATS (67%) and 1-2 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 9). Overall: across all road games, 2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-5 ATS and 5-3 O/U.
  • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), CLE is 3-0 ATS (100%) and 1-2 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 9). Overall: across all home games, 3-0 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 5-3 ATS and 4-4 O/U; across all 2026 games, 6-3 ATS and 5-4 O/U.
  • HOU streaks through Week 9: 3-5 straight up (1-game win streak), 3-5 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 5-3 toward the total (3-game Over streak). CLE streaks through Week 9: 5-4 straight up (2-game losing streak), 6-3 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 5-4 toward the total (1-game Over streak). HOU comes in off a 44-22 road win at LAC as a 4.5-point favorite, covering (Week 9). CLE comes in off a 22-23 road loss at NO as a 5.5-point underdog, covering (Week 9).
  • Home underdogs are 20-29-2 ATS in 2026 (51 games, through Week 9, neutral sites excluded). CLE is a home underdog in this game.
  • Games with closing totals of 42 or less are 14-22 toward the Over in 2026 (36 games, through Week 9), averaging 38.5 combined points against an average closing total of 40.1. Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): HOU 50.1 against 43.4 (5-3 O/U); CLE 39.7 against 39.9 (5-4 O/U). HOU is 3-3 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 9); CLE is 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 4 through Week 9).
  • The Browns have won their last four games as home underdogs (dating back to the 2025 season; they are 3-0 as home underdogs in 2026).
  • Four of the last 5 Texans games have gone over the total (2026, through Week 9).
  • Each of the Browns’ last 7 home games has been decided by 7 or fewer points (dating back to the 2025 season; the three 2026 home games were each decided by 3).

Injuries

Betting Preview

Nico Collins has gone under 4.5 receptions in 3 straight games. His target share is 14.8% over the last 3 games versus 20.6% this season. This is a 5-star bet on the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, and 5-star NFL props are up +38.6 units in 2026. Collins’ target numbers have not increased week over week a single time this season, which means they have gone down every week, just like Ashton Jeanty’s carries. Over his last 4 games, he has 3 red-zone targets, and over the last three weeks he ranks 3rd in target share and 3rd in air yards share (11.5%) on Houston. The Sharps are also backing Nico Collins under 4.5 receptions at -120 (based on $3.0K in prediction market liquidity) per the Smart Money Tool on BettingPros.

Browns No.1 CB Denzel Ward has allowed 178 yards on 331 total coverage snaps, which is 0.5 yards per coverage snap, the fifth fewest among cornerbacks with at least 150 coverage snaps. He has nine passes defensed, tied for the fourth most among cornerbacks (Next Gen Stats). Ward has played 160 snaps with a man coverage assignment, six more than any other defensive back (Tyson Campbell, 154). In man coverage, he has allowed 4.7 yards per target, the sixth fewest among defensive backs (minimum 15 man targets).

The Browns are allowing the 5th-fewest targets per game to No. 1 wide receivers. Given that Collins spends about 80% of his time out wide, he will likely spend the majority of his afternoon shadowed by Ward.

Props

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Titans +10.5

Trends

  • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), JAX is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026 (n=1, through Week 9). Overall: across all road games, 2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 4-2 ATS and 4-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 5-3 ATS and 4-4 O/U.
  • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), TEN is 1-2 ATS (33%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 9). Overall: across all home games, 1-2 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 4-3 ATS and 4-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-4 ATS and 4-4 O/U.
  • JAX streaks through Week 9: 6-2 straight up (2-game win streak), 5-3 against the spread (2-game cover streak), 4-4 toward the total (3-game Over streak). TEN streaks through Week 9: 1-7 straight up (2-game losing streak), 4-4 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 4-4 toward the total (3-game Over streak). JAX comes in off a 33-10 road win at BAL as an 8.5-point favorite, covering (Week 9; TNF). TEN comes in off a 36-43 road loss at CIN as a 13.5-point underdog, covering (Week 8).
  • TEN has 4 more days of rest than JAX. Teams with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 22-9-1 ATS and 27-5 straight up in 2026 (32 games, through Week 9). Favorites in that spot are 18-4-1 ATS and 23-0 straight up; underdogs in that spot are 4-5 ATS and 4-5 straight up. TEN is the underdog with the rest edge.
  • TEN is coming off its Week 9 bye. Teams playing after a bye are 10-4 ATS in 2026 (14 games, through Week 9).
  • Games with closing totals from 45.5 to 49.5 are 23-20 toward the Over in 2026 (43 games, through Week 9), averaging 49.9 combined points against an average closing total of 47.2. Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): JAX 43.8 against 43.9 (4-4 O/U); TEN 42.9 against 41.1 (4-4 O/U). JAX is 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 9); TEN is 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8).

Injuries

Betting Preview

I’m a sucker for a double-digit divisional home underdog off a bye week. Too many points. Trust. The. Process.

Ergo…I’m taking the Titans plus the points. Tennessee is 3-1 ATS when getting at least 7 points this season and 2-0 ATS when getting double digits. All underdogs of 10 or more are 5-3 ATS, and 5-2 on the road. Tennessee covered twice on the road, at +11.5 at Baltimore and at +13.5 at Cincinnati, but it is 1-2 ATS as a home underdog. The Titans have scored first in each of their last 10 games as a home underdog, and four of the Jaguars’ last five games against AFC South teams have gone Over the projected total.

The injury report looks bleak for the Titans. Their starting linebackers, Carnell Tate, a starting offensive lineman, and others did not practice to start the week, and they traded away safety Amani Hooker.

I don’t care, because it’s football and anything can happen.

Tennessee covered the spread after its bye week in the 2025 season, and it is coming off its Week 9 bye again. Teams playing after a bye are 10-4 ATS in 2026. Teams with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 22-9-1 ATS and 27-5 straight up in 2026, although favorites in that spot are 18-4-1 ATS and 23-0 straight up and underdogs in that spot are only 4-5 ATS and 4-5 straight up. Tennessee is the underdog with the rest edge.

What Tennessee does have going for it is the points, the bye, and a Jacksonville team coming off back-to-back blowouts. They look and feel unstoppable…which is exactly why this game will be closer than the spread suggests. Not to mention there might be some bad blood between these teams after the “altercation” between the two HCs last season when the Jaguars played the 49ers (Saleh served as SF’s DC in 2025). Jags won 26-21 on the back of 4 Niners turnovers.

As for fun player props in this game. 1st TD opportunity. The Titans have scored first in each of their last 10 games as a home underdog. No Tate means an expanded role for second-year WR Chimere Dike.

Dike started in Week 8 with Tate out and caught 5 of 6 targets for 71 yards and an 11-yard touchdown (14.0% adjusted, from 0.0%). Snap share: 82% (+61), from 13 of 63 (21%) in Week 7. First half: 2 targets, a 3rd-and-6 deep-middle incompletion at the Cincinnati 28 (Q1 11:06, before the 46-yard field goal) and a 21-yard catch on 2nd-and-10 at the Cincinnati 48 (Q2 10:01). Second half: 3 targets and 3 catches for 44 yards (28 on 2nd-and-2 at the Cincinnati 49, Q3 10:15; 5 on 2nd-and-17; and the touchdown on 1st-and-10 from the Cincinnati 11, Q4 11:33). Overtime: a 6-yard catch on 3rd-and-9 at the Tennessee 29 (6:16), short of the line. Red zone: 1 target, the touchdown. He also returned 6 kickoffs for 160 yards (long 29) and a punt for 8. Week 7: no target on 13 snaps and a kick-return role. Coaches said he should play more moving forward (played season-high snaps along with season-highs in every other metric). The fact that Dike also returns kicks opens up another avenue for 1st TD appeal.

Props

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Chiefs -3

Trends

  • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), KC is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 9). Overall: across all road games, 1-3 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 4-2 ATS and 2-4 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-4 ATS and 3-5 O/U.
  • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), ATL is 1-2 ATS (33%) and 1-2 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 9). Overall: across all home games, 1-3 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-5 ATS and 3-5 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-6 ATS and 4-5 O/U.
  • KC streaks through Week 9: 6-2 straight up (1-game win streak), 4-4 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 3-5 toward the total (1-game Under streak). ATL streaks through Week 9: 3-6 straight up (2-game losing streak), 3-6 against the spread (2-game non-cover streak), 4-5 toward the total (3-game Under streak). KC comes in off a 35-12 home win over NYJ as a 9.5-point favorite, covering (Week 9). ATL comes in off a 17-34 loss against CIN at a neutral site as a 3.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 9).
  • Home underdogs are 20-29-2 ATS in 2026 (51 games, through Week 9, neutral sites excluded). ATL is a home underdog in this game.
  • Games with closing totals from 42.5 to 45 are 20-15 toward the Over in 2026 (35 games, through Week 9), averaging 45.0 combined points against an average closing total of 43.6. Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): KC 43.1 against 44.6 (3-5 O/U); ATL 45.7 against 46.5 (4-5 O/U). KC is 3-3 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 9); ATL is 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 4 through Week 9).
  • Teams playing the week after a neutral-site game with no bye in between are 4-6 ATS and 5-5 straight up in 2026 (10 games, through Week 9). Atlanta is in that spot this week, coming off the Madrid game against Cincinnati.

Injuries

Betting Preview

I like Kansas City here, and I’m laying the points. The road team has covered in each of the last four matchups between Kansas City and Atlanta, and road favorites are 29-20-2 ATS this season. Kansas City is 4-2 ATS as a favorite this season, while Atlanta is 3-6 ATS and comes off Madrid without a bye week. Teams coming off games in Europe with no bye are 1-4 ATS this season, and the Steelers were the only team to break the trend, with their win over the Browns. Atlanta is also 1-3 ATS at home this season, 4-8 at home since the start of the 2025 season, and 7-14 ATS at home since 2024.

I’m not concerned about the Patrick Mahomes injury. The guy is a warrior, and he had a full week of practice. The receiver room is also getting help, with Xavier Worthy back and Josh Downs in to help boost the group. Kansas City still has Kenneth Walker, who had a monster game last week, and Atlanta’s defense has been kind of leaky against the run. The Falcons allowed 5.4 yards per carry in Weeks 5 through 9, the second-most in the NFL. Even if Walker were to miss due to his late groin injury, rookie RB Emmett Johnson has looked great in spurts this season.

Kansas City’s defense also really showed out last week against Geno Smith, pressuring him all over the field, and that matters because the way you get Michael Penix to struggle is to put pressure on him. When he takes that one step and just fires it, he looks like the best quarterback in the NFL, but the minute he’s off his spot, he looks like the 32nd-ranked quarterback. When pressured, Penix has completed 17 of 50 attempts for a league-low 34.0% completion percentage. That is the second-lowest by a qualified quarterback in a season since at least 2018 and down from his 41.0% mark in the 2025 season, which was the second-lowest that year (Next Gen Stats).

The Chiefs’ defense has generated a 36.0% pressure rate, just above the league average, and it recorded a season-high 50.0% pressure rate with five sacks in Week 9. In the four games in which Kansas City has generated pressure on over a third of opponents’ dropbacks, it has held quarterbacks to a 42.6% completion percentage when pressured, a mark that would rank seventh-lowest in the NFL (NGS). The Falcons have not allowed a sack in the last three games, the longest active streak in the NFL, but I think the Chiefs can get Penix off his spot here.

Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Props

Trends

  • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), SEA is 1-2 ATS (33%) and 1-2 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 9). Overall: across all road games, 1-2 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 3-4-2 ATS and 4-5 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-4-2 ATS and 4-5 O/U.
  • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), LV is 2-1 ATS (67%) and 3-0 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 9). Overall: across all home games, 3-1 ATS and 3-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 5-3 ATS and 7-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 6-3 ATS and 7-2 O/U.
  • SEA streaks through Week 9: 5-4 straight up (1-game win streak), 3-4-2 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 4-5 toward the total (1-game Under streak). LV streaks through Week 9: 4-5 straight up (1-game losing streak), 6-3 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 7-2 toward the total (7-game Over streak). SEA comes in off a 17-3 home win over ARI as a 9.5-point favorite, covering (Week 9). LV comes in off a 17-38 road loss at SF as an 8.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 9).
  • Home underdogs are 20-29-2 ATS in 2026 (51 games, through Week 9, neutral sites excluded). LV is a home underdog in this game.
  • Games with closing totals of 42 or less are 14-22 toward the Over in 2026 (36 games, through Week 9), averaging 38.5 combined points against an average closing total of 40.1. Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): SEA 40.4 against 42.8 (4-5 O/U); LV 56.2 against 46.7 (7-2 O/U). SEA is 2-3-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 4 through Week 9); LV is 3-3 ATS and 6-0 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 4 through Week 9).

Injuries

Betting Preview

Seattle doesn’t need to throw the ball to beat the Las Vegas Raiders. They’re one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, and Seattle has healthy RBs to take advantage.
The Seahawks’ defense is the reason they win so many road games, and it’s one of the best things Mike Macdonald has brought to the table since becoming Seattle’s HC. Outside of the Bears, they’ve given up 3 points to the Cardinals, 3 to the Chiefs, and 17 to a good Denver team. The 32 they gave up to San Francisco came in a weird game with a lot of turnovers and short fields, and it finished 32-29. The Raiders’ four wins came against Miami, the Chargers, New Orleans and the Jets to start the season, so this is not a team that has proven it can play with the big boys…let alone with a rookie QB making his first NFL start.

Las Vegas can’t run the ball at all, so it becomes one-dimensional, dropping back to throw with Fernando Mendoza, and the Seahawks’ secondary and pass rush can tee off.

Per Next Gen Stats: Rookie quarterbacks have averaged 4.5 yards per attempt against Seattle since Mike Macdonald became head coach in 2024, the fewest by any defense over that span (min. 100 rookie attempts). Rookies have averaged 6.5 yards per attempt against all other defenses over that span. Against Seattle, they have a 29.9% success rate (40.9% against all other defenses), with one touchdown pass and seven interceptions on 174 dropbacks.

The interesting angle is Mike McDonald against Klint Kubiak, whose background is the Kyle Shanahan tree. When you go back to those Shanahan-style offenses, Seattle’s defense dominates, like we just saw against Arizona. The defense alone is enough to win this game by more than a TD.

That all being said…the line is still only 6.5 points. And there’s always a chance that Kubiak might have a few wrinkles up his sleeve to attack Macdonald’s defense. And what the Raiders lose in experience with Kirk Cousins, they gain in mobility and moxie with this year’s No. 1 overall pick.

Even versus Seattle, I think the Raiders offense will have its moments. Therefore, I’d be wary of laying the points with Seattle on the road.

Bet the props.

Sharps are backing Zach Charbonnet over 14.5 rush atts at -108 (based on $1.0K in prediction market liquidity). FanDuel offers -108 (Smart Money Tool). He has 74-plus rushing yards in 3 of his last 4 regular season games.  He should see plenty of work in a great matchup. Las Vegas ranks 32nd in the league in rushing yards allowed, which supports the over. The last 7 of 8 running backs to face the Raiders have gone over their rushing prop total. Charbonnet hit the over last week with 77 rushing yards on 16 carries against Arizona.

Props

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Props

Trends

  • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), LAR is 3-1 ATS (75%) and 3-1 O/U in 2026 (n=4, through Week 9). Overall: across all road games, 3-1 ATS and 3-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 5-4 ATS and 4-5 O/U; across all 2026 games, 5-4 ATS and 4-5 O/U.
  • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), ARI is 0-3 ATS (0%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 9). Overall: across all home games, 0-3 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 4-4 ATS and 4-4 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-5 ATS and 5-4 O/U.
  • LAR streaks through Week 9: 5-4 straight up (3-game win streak), 5-4 against the spread (3-game cover streak), 4-5 toward the total (2-game Under streak). Last four road Rams NFC West games have gone OVER the total.
  • ARI streaks through Week 9: 3-6 straight up (1-game losing streak), 4-5 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 5-4 toward the total (1-game Under streak). LAR comes in off a 20-13 road win at WAS as a 4.5-point favorite, covering (Week 9). ARI comes in off a 3-17 road loss at SEA as a 9.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 9). The Cardinals have failed to cover the spread in 7 straight home games.
  • Divisional underdogs are 24-18 ATS in 2026 (42 games, through Week 9): home divisional underdogs 8-7 (15 games) and road divisional underdogs 14-11 (25 games). ARI is a home divisional underdog in this game.
  • Favorites laying 7 or more points are 12-19-2 ATS in 2026 (33 games; 24 won outright, through Week 9). Home favorites of 7 or more are 9-15-1 ATS (25 games) and road favorites of 7 or more are 3-3-1 ATS (7 games). LAR is laying 9.5 in this game.
  • Games with closing totals of 42 or less are 14-22 toward the Over in 2026 (36 games, through Week 9), averaging 38.5 combined points against an average closing total of 40.1. Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): LAR 43.9 against 47.9 (4-5 O/U); ARI 48.1 against 47.2 (5-4 O/U). LAR is 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 4 through Week 9); ARI is 2-4 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 4 through Week 9).

Injuries

 

Betting Preview

This is one of the last of the divisional home underdogs on the slate. Recall that Arizona already beat the Rams this season, 18-16, so it’s not impossible they cover this spread again, even coming off the debacle at Seattle, which was kind of to be expected. Obviously, the optics have changed slightly…with rookie third-rounder Carson Beck making his debut for Arizona.

The Rams’ offense, especially the passing game, has not been the same. Puka Nacua is banged up, and Matthew Stafford has not played at the MVP level he did last year and is turning the ball over a lot more. That said, the Rams can still run the ball very effectively with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, probably the best one-two punch in terms of ground game, and their defense has played better, with 22 combined points allowed over its last two games. Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald are a dangerous duo.

The Cardinals’ offense is in bad shape, especially the offensive line, which is so banged up. That’s why my favorite bet earlier in the week was toward the Under. If you have a compromised Rams passing attack and a Cardinals offensive line that could be totally overwhelmed by what the Rams have up front, I like the Under, and the dome conditions don’t matter to me. But the total has been bet down to 39.5, so I want to pivot to the props in a lower-scoring game.

We hit on the Drew Lock under pass attempts versus Arizona last week. Let’s rinse and repeat. ARI has faced the 2nd fewest pass attempts against them this year. The last 8 QBs to face Arizona have finished UNDER their pass attempts prop. With the Rams’ offensive line banged up, Stafford dealing with this elbow injury, and all the receiver injuries…LA runs the crap out of the ball to get to their Week 11 bye week as quickly as possible.

Props

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Over 55.5

Trends

  • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), SF is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026 (n=1, through Week 9). Overall: across all road games, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 5-3 ATS and 4-4 O/U.
  • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), DAL has not yet been in that role in 2026 (n=0, through Week 9). Overall: across all home games, 1-2 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-1-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-4-1 ATS and 5-4 O/U.
  • SF streaks through Week 9: 7-1 straight up (1-game win streak), 5-3 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 4-4 toward the total (1-game Over streak). DAL streaks through Week 9: 4-5 straight up (1-game win streak), 4-4-1 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 5-4 toward the total (1-game Under streak). SF comes in off a 38-17 home win over LV as an 8.5-point favorite, covering (Week 9). DAL comes in off a 27-23 road win at IND as a 3.5-point favorite, covering (Week 9).
  • Home underdogs are 20-29-2 ATS in 2026 (51 games, through Week 9, neutral sites excluded). DAL is a home underdog in this game.
  • Games with closing totals of 50 or more are 12-10 toward the Over in 2026 (22 games, through Week 9), averaging 51.8 combined points against an average closing total of 52.5. Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): SF 48.9 against 48.5 (4-4 O/U); DAL 53.6 against 50.1 (5-4 O/U). SF is 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 9); DAL is 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 4 through Week 9).

Injuries

Betting Preview

Closing totals of 52 or higher are 7-4 toward the Over in 2026 (11 games, through Week 9). The only other 2026 game with a closing total of 55.5 was Green Bay at Detroit in Week 7, which finished with 37 points and went Under. That GB-DET game is the only game since 2022 to close at 55.5 or higher…and not hit the over. The other four games…all went over, averaging 67.6 PPG across all five games. So although the number feels scary big…history suggests we get fireworks in Jerry World.

Dallas allowed 33 points to Arizona and 23 to the Colts over the last two weeks, so how many are they going to allow to the 49ers? Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy can do whatever they want against this Dallas defense, and Dak Prescott and the offense are going to have to score every single time they get the ball, because the defense is going to allow points every time it goes on the field. It feels like the Niners are a lock to get over 30 points in this game. The question on the total is whether this is one of those Cowboys games like the back-to-back against Tampa Bay and Green Bay where they scored 16 and 13. They’ve had some dud games, but for the most part they’ve been getting over 25, and if you feel like the Niners are definitely getting 30, then we are hitting the over.  Especially if Joey Porter Jr. doesn’t play again (although the team seems optimistic about his availability)

Per Next Gen Stats: The Cowboys’ defense has allowed a 37.6% success rate across 93 dropbacks with Joey Porter Jr. on the field this season, a mark that would rank lower than the Vikings’ league-leading rate of 38.5% over the full season. When deploying man coverage with Porter Jr. on the field, Dallas has allowed 3.6 yards per play, which would rank fourth-fewest in the NFL.

Across 248 dropbacks with Porter Jr. off the field, they have allowed a 50.4% success rate, which would rank third-highest in the NFL.

The 49ers have two banged-up CBs as well: Renardo Green and Deommodore Lenoir (combined for the most snaps played for the Niners among CBs this season).

Dak Prescott leads the league with 1,947 passing yards while not under pressure, in addition to posting 15 touchdowns (to four interceptions), a 110.2 passer rating, 8.1 yards per attempt, a 55.0% success rate, and 0.32 EPA per dropback. The 49ers’ defense has generated a 31.6% pressure rate this season, the third-lowest mark in the league. San Francisco has also surrendered over 20 fantasy points to two of the last three QBs they have faced (21.0 to Jayden Daniels and 20.42 to Michael Penix Jr.) - Prescott has gone over 18 points in six of his last eight games, including three in a row (NGS).

With a full arsenal of WRs to throw to this weekend, Prescott should deal with a defense that ranks 30th in pressure rate this season. Can’t say I’m as optimistic about the run game for Big D.

Javonte Williams has gone over 61.5 rushing yards only 4 times this season, twice in the last 3 weeks, but it took 20 and 25 carries against the Colts and Eagles to do it.
The 49ers are a tough run defense (No.1 run in EPA/rush faced this season), and no running back has passed 63 rushing yards against them since Week 3. Dallas offensive coordinator Klayton Adams said Thursday (11/12) that he is wary of Williams’ heavy workload. He called Williams a physical runner who seeks contact and has done a great job for the offense, and said the team has to figure out who the next man up is and how to use him properly, because it is easy to wear a back out this time of year (S/O Coachspeak Index). Dallas added Kendre Miller to the backfield after he was released from the Saints. Izzy Abanikanda will be RB2 this week, while FB Hunter Luepke is also expected to see more touches.

Props

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Steelers +3.5, Steelers ML

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), PIT is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026 (n=1, through Week 9). Overall: across all road games, 1-2 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 6-2 ATS and 4-4 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), CIN is 1-2 ATS (33%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 9). Overall: across all home games, 1-2 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 3-3-1 ATS and 5-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-3-1 ATS and 5-3 O/U.
  • PIT streaks through Week 9: 6-2 straight up (4-game win streak), 6-2 against the spread (4-game cover streak), 4-4 toward the total (2-game Under streak). CIN streaks through Week 9: 6-2 straight up (4-game win streak), 4-3-1 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 5-3 toward the total (1-game Under streak). PIT comes in off a 27-6 home win over CLE as a 3.5-point favorite, covering (Week 8). CIN comes in off a 34-17 win against ATL at a neutral site as a 3.5-point favorite, covering (Week 9).
  • PIT has 7 more days of rest than CIN. Teams with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 22-9-1 ATS and 27-5 straight up in 2026 (32 games, through Week 9). Favorites in that spot are 18-4-1 ATS and 23-0 straight up; underdogs in that spot are 4-5 ATS and 4-5 straight up. PIT is the underdog with the rest edge.
  • PIT is coming off its Week 9 bye. Teams playing after a bye are 10-4 ATS in 2026 (14 games, through Week 9).
  • Games with closing totals from 45.5 to 49.5 are 23-20 toward the Over in 2026 (43 games, through Week 9), averaging 49.9 combined points against an average closing total of 47.2. Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): PIT 40.5 against 40.5 (4-4 O/U); CIN 51.9 against 47.7 (5-3 O/U). PIT is 5-1 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8); CIN is 2-3-1 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 9).
  • Teams playing the week after a neutral-site game with no bye in between are 4-6 ATS and 5-5 straight up in 2026 (10 games, through Week 9). Cincinnati is in that spot this week, coming off the Madrid game against Atlanta; Pittsburgh is coming off its Week 9 bye.

Injuries

Betting Preview

Getting 3.5 with the Steelers is my favorite bet of the entire slate, and I’m sprinkling a little on the moneyline too. Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS with a four-game cover streak, and it beat Cincinnati 30-27 in Week 3. The Steelers also scored 31 points on the Bengals’ defense in Cincinnati in the 2025 season in a 33-31 loss, and they have won five of their last six games as road underdogs against the Bengals. Aaron Rodgers has had a ton of success against this defense. Over his last two and a half games against Cincinnati, he threw for 292 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 249 yards with 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and 116 yards with 1 touchdown, which adds up to 8 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and 657 yards. Cincinnati is 1-2 ATS as a home favorite and 2-3-1 ATS over its last six, and as good as Joe Burrow is playing, that defense still has a ton of issues, especially against the run. I don’t care that this game is in Cincinnati, because the Steelers have played there plenty of times and there will be plenty of Terrible Towels in the building.

Now for my favorite angle, which is rest. The Steelers are coming off their Week 9 bye against a Bengals team fresh off international travel with no bye in between, which makes this a double whammy. Pittsburgh has 7 more days of rest than Cincinnati, and teams with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 22-9-1 ATS and 27-5 straight up in 2026 (32 games, through Week 9). Teams playing after a bye are 10-4 ATS in 2026 (14 games, through Week 9). The Madrid spot is only 4-6 ATS and 5-5 straight up for the team that played abroad, so that support is mild. More recently, though, teams coming off games in Europe with no bye are 1-4 ATS this season, and the Steelers broke that trend with their win over the Browns.

Per Next Gen Stats: NFL teams coming off a bye week facing a team coming off an international game the prior week are 5-0 all time, including the Panthers’ win over the Eagles earlier this season.

Aaron Rodgers is 10-6 in his career in games following a bye week, including 7-3 under Mike McCarthy as head coach. In those 10 games with McCarthy, Rodgers averaged 266.7 passing yards and 27.9 team points per game while compiling a 23-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 109.2 passer rating.

Steelers defensive tackle Derrick Harmon says he’s “back to 100 percent” and “ready to get back on the field.”

The counterpoint is that underdogs with the rest edge are only 4-5 ATS, and the 10-4 ATS record for teams after a bye is almost all favorites (9-3), with bye-week underdogs at 1-1. I’d sell this bet on Pittsburgh’s form and Cincinnati’s home struggles rather than on the rest of the edge alone. Favorites of 3 to 3.5 points cover 59% of the time (27-19-3), so +3.5 versus a flat 3 matters.

DK Metcalf has gone over this number twice in 8 games this season. In the last matchup against Cincinnati, he caught 3 passes for 31 yards on 5 targets, and he has gone under in 2 of 3 games against the Bengals over the last two seasons (2025 and 2026). The Bengals are allowing the 5th-fewest targets per game to No. 1 wide receivers (5.8) and the fewest yards per game. Cornerback DJ Turner is a legitimate No. 1 corner. Metcalf has only gone over 4.5 receptions in games where Aaron Rodgers attempted at least 40 passes this season (2 of 8 games, 25%). He needed at least 9 targets in both of those games (at Cleveland and at Tampa Bay) to catch just 5 passes. His catch rate of 51.6% is the second-worst, and his separation score ranks in the bottom 12.

Props

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Ravens -4

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), LAC is 0-3-1 ATS (0%) and 1-3 O/U in 2026 (n=4, through Week 9). Overall: across all road games, 0-3-1 ATS and 1-3 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 0-5-1 ATS and 2-4 O/U; across all 2026 games, 0-7-1 ATS and 2-6 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), BAL is 0-2 ATS (0%) and 0-2 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 9). Overall: across all home games, 0-4 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-3-1 ATS and 2-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-6-1 ATS and 5-4 O/U.
  • LAC streaks through Week 9: 0-8 straight up (8-game losing streak), 0-7-1 against the spread (7-game non-cover streak), 2-6 toward the total (1-game Over streak). BAL streaks through Week 9: 4-5 straight up (4-game losing streak), 2-6-1 against the spread (4-game non-cover streak), 5-4 toward the total (1-game Over streak). LAC comes in off a 22-44 home loss to HOU as a 4.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 9). BAL comes in off a 10-33 home loss to JAX as an 8.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 9; TNF).
  • BAL has 3 more days of rest than LAC. Teams with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 22-9-1 ATS and 27-5 straight up in 2026 (32 games, through Week 9). Favorites in that spot are 18-4-1 ATS and 23-0 straight up; underdogs in that spot are 4-5 ATS and 4-5 straight up. BAL is the favorite with the rest edge. Underdogs with at least 3 fewer days of rest than their opponent are 4-18-1 ATS and 0-23 straight up in 2026; LAC is an underdog with a rest deficit in this game.
  • Monday-night games in 2026 through Week 9: underdogs 5-4 ATS and favorites 4-5 ATS (9 games), O/U 4-5. Across all 28 prime-time games, underdogs are 16-11-1 ATS and favorites 11-16-1, with the O/U at 14-14. LAC has not played a prime-time game in 2026; BAL is 1-1 ATS and 2-0 O/U in 2 prime-time games.
  • Games with closing totals of 42 or less are 14-22 toward the Over in 2026 (36 games, through Week 9), averaging 38.5 combined points against an average closing total of 40.1. Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): LAC 42.5 against 44.1 (2-6 O/U); BAL 47.2 against 46.2 (5-4 O/U). LAC is 0-5-1 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 9); BAL is 1-5 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 4 through Week 9).

Injuries

Betting Preview

You have to hammer the Ravens at -4. Favorites with a 3+ day rest edge are 18-4-1 ATS and 23-0 straight up, and Baltimore has 3 more days of rest than the Chargers. The Chargers are 0-8 and 0-7-1 ATS, and underdogs with a 3+ day rest deficit are 4-18-1 ATS. They have lost 11 straight games. Los Angeles is 0-3-1 ATS as a road underdog this season and 1-5-1 in that spot since the start of the 2025 season.

Jacoby Brissett is the starting quarterback, and he already beat the Chargers back in Week 1 as a big underdog. He started for the Cardinals in their 26-14 Week 1 victory over the Chargers, which gives him the chance to beat the Chargers a second time in 2026 with a different team. In that game, he had a season-high 103.1 passer rating, 7.5 yards per attempt and EPA per dropback, and he took one sack. There is also a coaching-staff connection to Brissett, because the Ravens’ quarterback coach spent time with him in Arizona and their passing game coordinator spent time with him in Indianapolis. This offense is not complicated: feed Derrick Henry, throw the ball to Zay Flowers, and don’t take sacks.

Baltimore is 0-8 ATS at home, a streak that reaches back into the 2025 season, so I think the Ravens are due for some positive home ATS regression. The last time they covered at home was as a 2.5-point favorite against the Bears with Tyler Huntley after their bye week in the 2025 season. Jim Harbaugh will face one of his former NFL assistants for the first time in his career when the Chargers play Jesse Minter and the Ravens on Monday Night Football in Week 10. Minter was the Chargers’ defensive coordinator for the last two years, so he knows this personnel and what Justin Herbert likes and doesn’t like (his 2026 offense).

I think the Chargers are the worst team in the NFL. Nothing is going right for them, and Herbert is banged up with a finger injury on the same hand he broke last year. The Chargers also tried to trade away starting linebacker Daiyan Henley, who leads the team in tackles, but the trade fell through because he’s hurt again (although he logged a full practice on Thursday).

Week 10 NFL Betting FAQ

What are the best NFL bets for Week 10?

Andrew Erickson’s Week 10 official plays are Steelers +3.5, Ravens -4, Chiefs -3, Titans +11, Over 55.5 in 49ers-Cowboys and Under 39.5 in Dolphins-Colts. His player props include Breece Hall Over 2.5 receptions, Nico Collins Under 4.5 receptions, and Zach Charbonnet Over 62.5 rushing yards.

What is the best bet of Week 10?

Steelers +3.5 at Cincinnati is Erickson’s favorite bet of Week 10. Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS with a four-game cover streak, beat the Bengals in Week 3, and comes off a bye, while Cincinnati is coming off its Madrid game with no rest week. Teams with a 3+ day rest edge are 22-9-1 ATS in 2026.

What are the best NFL player props for Week 10?

Nico Collins Under 4.5 receptions is a 5-star prop. He has gone under in three straight games and draws Browns CB Denzel Ward. Erickson’s other props are Breece Hall Over 2.5 receptions, Zach Charbonnet Over 62.5 rushing yards, Matthew Stafford Under 31.5 pass attempts, Javonte Williams Under 61.5 rushing yards, and Unders on Tucker Kraft, DK Metcalf, and Pierre Strong.

Who are the best anytime touchdown bets for Week 10?

Erickson likes Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime TD (+104) in Munich and Tyler Warren anytime TD (+245) against Miami. For long-shot first touchdown scorers, he’s backing Jordyn Tyson (+1500) against the Saints and Chimere Dike (+3500) against the Jaguars.

Should you bet home underdogs in Week 10?

Be cautious. Home underdogs are 20-29-2 ATS in 2026 (40.8%), and they went 0-8 ATS in Week 9. This week’s home underdogs are the Jets, Titans, Browns, Falcons, Raiders, Cardinals, and Cowboys. Divisional home underdogs have fared better at 8-7 ATS.

Which NFL totals trends matter for Week 10?

Totals of 42 or lower are 14-22 toward the Under in 2026 (61.1%), and seven Week 10 games sit in that range, including Dolphins-Colts and Chargers-Ravens. Totals of 52 or higher are 7-4 toward the Over, which supports the Over 55.5 in 49ers-Cowboys.

How much does rest matter in NFL betting this season?

A lot. Favorites with at least three more days of rest than their opponent are 18-4-1 ATS and 23-0 straight up in 2026, and underdogs facing a 3+ day rest deficit are 0-23 straight up. Baltimore is the favorite with that edge against the Chargers in Week 10.

What is Andrew Erickson’s NFL betting record in 2026?

Andrew Erickson is 60-46 (56.6%) on his NFL betting picks in 2026. He went 7-4 in Week 9, including 6-1 on player props.