The New England Patriots meet the Detroit Lions on Sunday for a Week 10 matchup, with DET -2.5 and a total of 49.5 on the supplied odds board. Looking for Patriots vs. Lions player props? The BettingPros NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet has generated +210 units and a 4.8% ROI across 4,395 picks rated 3-5 stars, with a 53.8% win rate and a five-week winning streak. Rushing-yard props lead the way at +79.7 units, followed by receptions at +52.6 units. Below are our matchup analysis, picks and player prop tools.
NFL Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Patriots vs. Lions
Patriots vs. Lions Game Information & Odds
- When: Sunday, November 15, 2026, 9:30 a.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Location: FC Bayern Munich Stadium, Munich, Germany
- Spread: DET -2.5
- Total: 49.5
Matchup odds supplied via DraftKings. Analyst picks and parlay prices below reflect the source articles and may differ from the matchup odds above.
Here are Andrew Erickson's predictions for Patriots vs. Lions. Read all of his NFL Week 10 picks and predictions.
Patriots vs. Lions Preview & Picks
Erickson's pick: Patriots ML
The Lions defense is playing better: DET has won three straight games (GB, MIN, MIA) without scoring more than 20 points for the first time since Weeks 5-8, 1974 (Next Gen Stats). Detroit’s defense is allowing 15.5 points per game since Week 5, second-best in the NFL, after allowing 31.8 points per game through the first four weeks, which ranked second-worst in the NFL. The Lions have allowed 21 or fewer points in four straight games for the first time since Weeks 7-15, 2016 (eight straight games). The Lions’ defense has allowed a 38.2% completion percentage on downfield passes since Brian Branch made his 2026 season debut in Week 7, the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL over that span (NGS).
The Lions also defend what Drake Maye does best… off-script plays and extended dropbacks. The Lions’ defense has allowed just four completions for 123 yards, a touchdown, and an interception when quarterbacks have held onto the ball for at least four seconds after the snap this season (i.e., extended dropbacks), resulting in a league-low 15.4% completion percentage.
Maye has recorded a league-high 46.8% success rate when holding the ball for at least four seconds after the snap this season (i.e., extended dropbacks), the highest rate by a qualified quarterback in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Detroit has also recorded a sack on 19 of its 45 extended dropbacks faced (42.2%), the second-highest sack rate in the NFL behind only the Steelers (52.8%). Detroit has allowed just four total successful plays on extended dropbacks, resulting in a league-low 8.9% success rate, the lowest rate allowed by a defense in a season during the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
Could go either way with the side, as I’ve contemplated both the Patriots and Lions winning. The Pats rebounding off a big loss was my early lean, but I’m acknowledging DET might not be as bad defensively. Therefore, that variable has entered into my handicap of this overseas contest. Still…hardly a murderer’s row of offenses DET has faced outside of GB (also a divisional matchup where points were left on the cutting room floor). A.J. Brown and Rhamondre Stevenson also seem like they actually might play. Because I think this game is really closer to a pick ’em…I’ll take my chances with NE on the moneyline. Mike Vrabel’s team tends to bounce back after losses – 5-1 ATS after a loss since 2025. 6-0 SU after a loss.
So although I felt on the Week 10 Predictions Tailgate podcast that DET could smoke NE…I think I was letting recency bias take over. Pat Fitzmaurice talked more sense into me with backing NE as the sharp side here. Subscribe to the Tailgate Podcast here (help us get to 3K).
Amon-Ra St. Brown leads all wide receivers in red-zone targets per game, and New England allows the 6th-most receiving touchdowns (14 this season). This is a homecoming for St. Brown. His mother is from Germany; he has dual citizenship in Germany and the United States, and he speaks fluent German. He has not scored since Week 3, so I think he is due. Look for the Lions to dial up some red-zone plays for St. Brown to hit paydirt.
Props & Picks
Best NFL Player Props for Patriots vs. Lions
We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the NFL player prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best NFL player prop bet picks. View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
Our NFL Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily NFL projections.
What is an NFL player prop bet?
An NFL player prop bet is a type of wager where you’re betting on the performance of a specific player in a game rather than the overall outcome. For example, you might place a bet on how many passing yards a quarterback will throw for, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. It’s a fun way to get more invested in the action, especially if you’re confident in how a particular player will perform, regardless of who wins or loses the game. It’s like focusing on one slice of the pie instead of the whole thing.
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