Bogman’s Best College Football Bets for Week 12 (2021)
Check out my best bets for Week 12 of the college football season!
- Week 11 Record:
- Season Record: 57-51-2
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Western Kentucky (-10) vs. FAU
This one is all about the incredible WKU offense! Western Kentucky is the #1 passing offense in the country and has been beating the brakes off the C-USA competition in their current five-game win streak. Since a 6 point loss to undefeated UTSA, the Hilltoppers have an average margin of victory of 23.6 points in the recent five-game win streak. FAU is sitting at 5-5 and is aggressively average, ranking just below average in offensive scoring, passing (offense and defense), rushing (offense and defense), and slightly above average in scoring defense. The Owls have also dropped 2 in a row, and the last one they lost was by 2 TDs as a TD favorite against Old Dominion, who is sitting at 4-6 on the season. WKU QB Bailey Zappe is leading the nation in TD passing TDs with 42, and I think he’ll put up five more against FAU this week, and they’ll blow the Owls out!
I know that Florida is in a rough spot right now, but Missouri is pretty awful. Missouri is coming off a win against South Carolina and sitting at 5-5, but the combined record of the teams they beat is 19-31. Florida just let Samford, an FCS team, put up 52 against them and had to play come-back to beat them last week and put up 70 points to win. The talent is still there for Florida, and I think the Gators shook something loose by putting up 70 here, and that QB Emory Jones found a grove in his 464 yards and 6 TD performance. After an embarrassing performance against Samford and the media asking about celebrating after playing a close one against an FCS team, Florida will also play with a bit of fire. Missouri will put up some points. They average over 30 ppg, but they have the 129th ranked rushing defense, and Florida ranks 9th in the country averaging over 228 ypg. I think if Mullen has any chance of keeping this job, this Gator team is going to have to show some passion and that they haven’t given up, they have to get at least one more win to get a bowl game, so I think this game is the one they win going away!
UCLA has been fairly predictable after the Week 3 loss to Fresno State (which, of course, I picked them to win). They have beat the bottom-end teams of the PAC-12 and lost to the top teams. The issue in this game is where we should put USC among those teams? USC is 4-6 in actual record and 3-6 ATS. They have lost 3 of their last four and haven’t won ATS since October 2nd. UCLA lives and dies by their run game. They average 236 yards rushing in their six wins and only 143 yards per game in their four losses. In their five losses, USC allows an average of 219 yards on the ground and only 93 in their four wins. This is just not a great matchup for USC, they might be a little better on offense with Jaxson Dart getting his first start, but the defense will get run over. UCLA should win this one by way more than 3.
Tennessee vs. South Alabama Over 62
I took the Georgia defense for granted last week and said I didn’t think the Volunteers would put up the most points on Georgia and ate my words as the Over hit last week! While 17 points aren’t impressive, they were the first team to score 2 TDs against Georgia and are a top 20 scoring offense averaging over 36 points. Tennessee also gives up around 30 points per game, so on averages, we are already at the Over. I expect it to be more lopsided in Tennessee’s favor, of course, as they are 28 point favorites. In their wins, Tennessee is averaging 49 points. They will win this game for sure, so all we are asking South Alabama to do is put up 2 TDs. South Alabama has been without QB Jake Bentley for the last two weeks, but he has been back at practice this week, so I expect him to be back. Tennessee could easily get even more of this total, but I think this one is a lock and the public does too, as the OVERWHELMING majority of the money has been placed on the over. Lock this one up!
Check out all of our college football game previews and picks of the week >>
West Virginia vs. Texas Over 56.5
West Virginia doesn’t have a great offense but Kansas had a season-high of 33 before putting up 57 on Texas. I’ve watched every Longhorns game this year and they can not tackle! Texas is 107th in the country in defensive scoring, allowing 32.5 PPG, and has allowed an average of 41 PPG in their current five-game losing streak. WVU has averaged 21.4 PPG on offense in their last four but allowed an average of 30.2. Texas QB Casey Thompson has had some outbursts in offensive competence from time to time, and he scored 7 TDs last week in a comeback overtime loss to Kansas. Similar to my thought process on the Florida offense syncing up, I think the Longhorns will at least put up points. Texas lost starting RB Bijan Robinson, but they have capable depth with experience in Roschon Johnson and Keilan Robinson. I feel Texas will give up points, but score points too. Last week there were 49 points scored at halftime in their loss to Kansas. West Virginia has put up some points and can easily get in a rhythm, and Texas will let them get in a groove. I think this is an easy lock this week, and we’ll have the majority of this by halftime!
Other Bets I Like:
SMU (+10.5) @ Cincinnati
OK State (-10) @ Texas Tech
Tulane (-5.5) vs. South Florida
Notre Dame (-17) vs Georgia Tech
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