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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (3/8)

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New conference tournaments have popped up every day this week, and today is no different, as the Colonial, Southern, and Summit League all begin their Opening Round games. Elsewhere, the teams involved in the Ohio Valley championship will be known by the days’ end as both semifinal games are played tonight.

Read on for Friday’s College Basketball best bets.

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Friday's College Basketball Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Longwood (-1) @ Winthrop | O/U 145 (-105/-115) 

There is arguably no better rivalry in the Big South Conference than the Longwood-Winthrop rivalry, and this is one of the more exciting opening round matchups from a one-bid league that one will find anywhere.

Longwood was close to sweeping both regular season meetings against Winthrop this year, but the Lancers blew an 11-point second-half lead in the first meeting, and eventually lost in overtime. Even though the two rivals played five extra minutes, the first meeting saw just 128 combined points scored, and the game easily stayed under the projected total of 142.5. Both teams made adjustments in the rematch, as an 84-74 Longwood victory smashed the O/U of 143.5, as the Lancers shot 47.6% from 3-point range and scored 1.20 points per possession. However, with each team’s season on the line in the rubber match, we expect much more of a rock fight.

Longwood’s propensity to trap ball screens has been a major issue for Winthrop, as the Eagles have turned the ball over at a 21% rate or higher in each of the previous six meetings between the teams. We also expect the Eagles to use arguably the league’s best overall defender, Chase Claxton, to guard Longwood’s second-leading scorer, Michael Christmas (11.5 points per game) on a more consistent basis. Christmas has scored 41 combined points in the two meetings between the teams this year, but Winthrop’s second-ranked defense in league play in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency should have the answers in this rubber match.

The Under is 4-2-1 in Winthrop’s conference tournament games since 2020, and we expect it to be the right side of the total despite Longwood’s 5-1 record to the Over in six neutral site games in that span.

Bet: Under 145 (-115)

Boise State @ San Diego State (-7.5) | O/U 137 (-115/-105)

San Diego State and Boise State are both top-five teams in the Mountain West, and each is coming off losses in their last games, though Boise State’s 10-point home loss to Nevada is more concerning than San Diego State’s four-point road loss at UNLV.

The Aztecs entered their game against UNLV tied with the Runnin’ Rebels as the league’s best defenses since February. Thus, we are giving San Diego State a pass for its 7-for-31 (22.6%) shooting performance from inside the arc in that game, as it still managed a respectable 0.97 points per possession all things considered. The Aztecs played a clean game from a turnover standpoint (eight turnovers committed) against a defense that turns opponents over at the third-highest rate in the league, and we expect head coach Brian Dutcher to have answers if the Broncos double the post as often as UNLV did, given that the Aztecs shoot the third-highest percentage from 2-point range (53.2%) of any Mountain West team.

Boise State is a vulnerable team defensively off the ball, and it allowed Nevada to score 1.10 points per possession despite the Wolf Pack’s best player, Kenan Blackshear, being limited to just 23 minutes following a two-game absence.

San Diego State is 8-4 ATS as home favorites, and is has covered 60% of its games (15 of 25) after a loss since 2020. We expect the Aztecs to have the edge over a Boise State team that is 1-2 ATS in its previous three games against ranked opponents.

Bet: San Diego State -7.5 (-112)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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