College Football Orange Bowl Odds & Picks: Georgia vs. Florida State (Saturday)
Here's a look at the spreads and totals for today's College Football Bowl Games, along with my custom projections and handicaps. Here are my best bets for Saturday’s college football bowl games. Below we dive into Georgia vs. Florida State.
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Best College Football Bowl Game Bets: Georgia vs. Florida State
Georgia vs. Florida State
Orange Bowl | Miami, FL
Saturday, December 30 | 4:00p | ESPN
Total: 44.5 | ATL: UGA -25.1 | ATT: 47.6
Georgia Bulldogs
- QB Brock Vandagriff | 55 snaps | Transfer portal
- WR Jackson Meeks | 85 snaps | Transfer portal
- WR/PR Mekhi Mews | 85 snaps | Transfer portal
- WR Zeed Hayes | 21 snaps | Transfer portal
- TE Brock Bowers | 520 snaps | NFL Draft
- OT Amarius Mims | 297 snaps | NFL Draft
- OT Austin Blaske | 29 snaps | Transfer portal
- DL Jonathan Jefferson | 67 snaps | Transfer portal
- EDGE CJ Madden | 49 snaps | Transfer portal
- EDGE Darris Smith | 39 snaps | Transfer portal
- LB Marvin Jones Jr. | 247 snaps | Transfer portal
- LB Xavian Sorey | 188 snaps | Transfer portal
- LB EJ Lightsey | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
- LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson | 336 snaps | Transfer portal
- CB Nyland Green | 93 snaps | Transfer portal
QB2 Vandagriff announced his transfer to Kentucky on Dec. 6. The No. 37 overall recruit in 2021, Vandagriff attempted 18 passes in 2023 as Carson Beck's backup. Gunner Stockton will be QB2 for the bowl game.
Superstar TE Brock Bowers and stud OT Amarius Mims both did not travel with the team to this game. Though no official announcement has been made, they are both presumed out. Bowers did not appear to be 100-percent healthy in the SEC title game after coming back from a high-ankle sprain. Mims left that game after aggravating his own high-ankle sprain.
Georgia HC Kirby Smart said the Bulldogs don't have many healthy opt-outs for the Orange Bowl. "Right now we've got our guys that are healthy playing. Guys that are completely healthy cleared to play, they've all said they're going to play," Smart said on Dec. 27.
Other opt-out news: Georgia has a number of potential opt-outs. The list of expected declarees for the NFL Draft on the roster includes TE Brock Bowers (520 snaps), WR Ladd McConkey, OG Tate Ratledge, OT Amarius Mims (297 snaps), C Sedrick Van Pran (821 snaps), DT Nazir Stackhouse (388 snaps), CB Kamari Lassiter (678 snaps), and S Javon Bullard (555 snaps).
Injury news: WR Rara Thomas (391 snaps/23 recs/383 yards/16.7 YPC) missed the final two games with a foot issue. Superstar TE Brock Bowers missed the final game of the season and was limited in the SEC Championship Game. Perhaps most importantly, OT Amarius Mims left the SEC Title game which could affect his decision whether or not to opt-out.
Coaching News: HC Kirby Smart is a career 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in bowl games. DB coach Fran Brown left to become Syracuse's new HC.
Florida State Seminoles
- QB Tate Rodemaker | 141 snaps | Transfer portal
- QB AJ Duffy | 6 snaps | Transfer portal
- RB CJ Campbell | 43 snaps | Transfer portal
- RB Trey Benson | 413 snaps | NFL Draft
- RB Rodney Hill | snaps | Transfer portal
- WR Johnny Wilson | 459 snaps | NFL Draft
- WR Winston Wright | 29 snaps | Transfer portal
- WR Keon Coleman | 672 snaps | NFL Draft
- TE Jaheim Bell | 451 snaps | NFL Draft
- TE Markeston Douglas | 210 snaps | Transfer portal
- TE Preston Daniel | 82 snaps | Transfer portal
- iOL Qae'shon Sapp | 3 snaps | Transfer portal
- OL Bless Harris | 390 snaps | Transfer portal
- OT Daughtry Richardson | 5 snaps | Transfer portal
- OT Thomas Shrader | 47 snaps | Transfer portal
- DT Malcolm Ray | 246 snaps | Transfer portal
- DT Fabien Lovett | 337 snaps | NFL Draft
- DT Joshua Farmer | 427 snaps | Transfer portal
- DT Ayobami Tifase | 20 snaps | Transfer portal
- EDGE Jared Verse | 451 snaps | NFL Draft
- EDGE Patrick Payton | 466 snaps | Transfer portal
- LB Dylan Brown-Turner | 3 snaps | Transfer portal
- LB DJ Lundy | 403 snaps | Transfer portal
- CB Renardo Green | 651 snaps | NFL Draft
- CB Jarrian Jones | 453 snaps | NFL Draft
- S Akeem Dent | 446 snaps | NFL Draft
At current count, 23 players on Florida State have opted-out of this game! That doesn’t count injuries, such as the one to QB Jordan Travis.
Things are so bad that FSU shifted players to other positions to flesh out its depth chart in advance of this game — for example, WRs Ja’Khi Douglas and Joshua Burrell are listed as RBs for the bowl.
QB2 Rodemaker opted-out on Christmas Day. He would have started this game with QB1 Jordan Travis OFY with a leg injury (below). This means that freshman QB3 Brock Glenn, who started against Louisville in the ACC Championship Game, will draw the start. Glenn completed 8-of-21 passes for 55 yards in that game. It also means that FSU does not have an scholarship QB on the roster to back up Glenn (since QB4 AJ Duffy is also in the portal).
This is a truly hairy situation — the Seminoles will dress walk-ons Dylan McNamara and Michael Grant as the immediate backups to Glenn. Though, really, if Glenn goes down, FSU is likely go to Wildcat the rest of the game. You’re going to see a heavy-dose of that as is, as you did against the Cardinals. Wildcat was by far and away FSU’s most efficient source of offense in that game.
RB1 Benson, who is Mel Kiper’s No. 2 draft-eligible RB, ran for 905 yards and 14 TD this season.
WR Wilson is a 6-foot-7 matchup nightmare. His absence is notable for multiple reasons. Not only a strong starter, Wilson was also very clearly QB2 Rodemaker’s favorite target. Fellow star WR Keon Coleman, a potential Round 1 pick who led the ACC with 11 TD, had 50 catches for 658 yards in his only season in Tallahassee.
TE Bell is listed No. 3 on Mel Kiper’s FB/H-Back position rankings.
EDGE Verse could have been a first-rounder last spring, but he elected to return for one final season. He confirmed he will skip this game to begin his NFL Draft preparations.
Other opt-out news: DB Jarrian Jones declared for the NFL Draft, but says he will play in this game.
Injury news: QB Jordan Travis suffered a gruesome leg injury which has pressed backup QB Tate Rodemaker into the starting role. Rodemaker has gone 32-for-56 (57%) for 510 passing yards, 9.1 yards per pass attempt and a 5-to-0 TD/INT ratio thus far in 2023.
Coaching News: HC Mike Norvell is a career 0-5 ATS in bowl games. DC Adam Fuller, who received interest from Texas A&M, ultimately inked a new three-year contract to stay in Tallahassee.
The Handicap
I don't know how you could draw up a bigger deflation spot than the one Florida State is in. You know plenty about that, so I won't dwell.
But we also have never seen an opt-out situation quite as bad as this one.
The Seminoles are going to, essentially, be playing their second- and third-stringers against a Georgia team that is close to full strength.
The Bulldogs, remember, were wire-to-wire No. 1 in the country prior to losing to Alabama in the SEC title game. It goes without question that Georgia's talent is top-three in the nation.
I'm not going to sugarcoat it. This is a legitimate David vs. Goliath scenario. The only difference is that David went into his fight believing he could win.
I'm holding a Georgia -14 ticket. But this is playable all the way to Georgia -23.5. I'm not sure how Florida State is going to score in this game. And I'm not sure how their decimated defense keeps QB Carson Beck and friends off the scoreboard.
The pick: Georgia -14
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