Here's a look at the spreads and totals for today's College Football Bowl Games, along with my custom projections and handicaps. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Here's a look at the spreads and totals for today's College Football Bowl Games, along with my custom projections and handicaps. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Peach Bowl | Atlanta, GA
Saturday, December 30 | 12:00p | ESPN
Total: 48.5 | ATL: PSU -2.2 | ATT: 59.1
Penn State Nittany Lions
EDGE Robinson is a devastating pass-rusher, and a potential Round 1 pick. He confirmed in his declaration announcement that he will not play in this game.
CB Johnny Dixon, out of eligibility, decided to start his draft process early by opting-out of this game. He recently accepted a Senior Bowl invite. Over 31 targets, Dixon allowed a 21-244-0 receiving line. He was an All-Big Ten third-team selection in 2023. Penn State CB coach Terry Smith said in September that Dixon was "going to be drafted very high.”
Bacchetta was PSU's backup punter. The writing was on the wall with the NCAA granting starting P Riley Thompson, an Aussie who was a 2022 Freshman All-American, two more years of eligibility.
Other opt-out news: LT Olu Fashanu (722 snaps) declared for the NFL Draft and is a potential top-10 pick. Fashanu said in a statement that he would be with the team for this game. He has been practicing with the team in advance of this game. He could still elect not to play, but many believe he’ll log at least some snaps. “Fashanu likely will play limited reps in the game,” reported Sports Illustrated on Dec. 23. Fashanu was the Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year and a consensus All-American.
TE Theo Johnson (615 snaps) declared for the NFL Draft but was very clear that he intends to play in this game. It’s possible he will play decreased snaps. Johnson had 325 yards and a career-high six TD in 2023.
Penn State star CBs Kalen King (481 snaps) announced he will play in this game, a big development with CB Dixon out the door.
Injury news: WR Harrison Wallace (21 targets/61.0 PFF overall grade) battled injuries all year, playing in six games with his final appearance coming in Week 9 when he ran four routes before departing.
Coaching News: Penn State will have interim coordinators on both sides for the bowl game. Duke hired PSU DC Manny Diaz - a semifinalist for the Broyles Award - as HC. Diaz's Nittany Lion defense leads the NCAA with a streak of 17-straight games holding opponents to 24-points-or-less. PSU hired former Indiana HC Tom Allen to replace Diaz, but Allen won’t be coaching in the bowl. Instead, PSU has named Anthony Poindexter and Robb Smith interim co-DCs for the bowl.
Offensively, PSU fired OC Mike Yurcich on Nov. 12 after the 24-15 loss to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions hired former Kansas OC Andy Kotelnicki to replace him. During Peach Bowl preparations and the game itself, Kotelnicki will be with the team, but only in what the Nittany Lions deemed "an observatory role."
PSU went 2-0 in the final two games with interim co-OCs Ja’Quan Seider and Ty Howle. That pair will once again call plays in the Peach Bowl.
While PSU's offense struggled this year, HC James Franklin's teams have a track record of going over the total in bowl season. In Franklin's 11 career bowl games, nine have gone over the total. Franklin himself is a career 7-4 ATS in bowl games.
Ole Miss Rebels
QB2 Sanders was deemed academically ineligible following the fall semester. He is not able to participate in the Peach Bowl, and will begin his NFL Draft prep.
EDGE Johnson, who recently accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, had 5.5 sacks this year and 19 in his career. He's a solid pass-rusher, but not as effective against the run.
Other opt-out news: QB1 Jaxson Dart will start. He's been emphatic about that. He just won't answer questions about his future until after the game, stating: “We’re going to take that decision as a family decision, and there’s a time and place for that. Right now, I’m fully just focused on the bowl game and winning this game.”
Injury news: Starting RT Micah Pettus (608 snaps/63.3 overall grade) is out for the year after being injured in Ole Miss' Week 10 contest against Texas A&M. WR Zakhari Franklin has had knee issues all season long and hasn't suited up since Week 10 when he ran just three routes before leaving the game.
Coaching News: Since 2012, all five bowl games that HC Lane Kiffin led a team into went under the total. The Rebels are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 bowl games - with six-straight going under - though Kiffin is a modest 2-4 ATS in bowls as HC. One of Kiffin's analysts, Sterlin Gilbert, a former FBS OC, left to become Cal's new QB coach. TE coach John David Baker left to become ECU's new OC.
The Handicap
Matchup between a pair of 10-2 teams whose only losses were to elite opponents. Ole Miss lost games to Alabama and Georgia. Penn State lost to Michigan and Ohio State.
EDGE Cedric Johnson became the first significant Ole Miss player to opt-out of a bowl in the past three seasons. Outside of him, Ole Miss was unscathed.
Penn State, meanwhile, had two enormous opt-outs on the defensive side. It remains unclear how much LT Fashanu will play.
Based on the losses on both sides, my system believes this line is short.
Ole Miss' offense, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted tempo, puts a ton of pressure on opposing defenses with its breakneck pace and ability, at all times, to be multiple.
Penn State didn't allow more than 24 points to any opponent this season. I believe that changes in this game. Penn State is going to return fire, of course. But I believe Ole Miss pulls off the upset in a back-and-forth affair that jumps over the total.
Let's call it Ole Miss 31-28.
The picks: Ole Miss +5 | Over 49.5
Music City Bowl | Nashville, TN
Saturday, December 30 | 2:00p | ABC
Total: 47.5 | ATL: Auburn -4.0 | ATT: 49.6
Auburn Tigers
DL James broke out in 2023 with 11 TFL and seven sacks. He was also amongst the highest-graded PFF interior run-defenders in the nation.
It also appears that Auburn will be without four starters in the secondary. That’s concerning on its face. But the devastation is softened by Maryland not having QB1 Taulia Tagovailoa — Maryland reverts to a run-heavy attack with QB2 Billy Edwards in.
CB James, who opted-out to begin his NFL Draft process, was a strong starter who posted an 83.8 PFF grade (No. 29 nationally). He was also No. 9 nationally in coverage grade. James is a potential Day 2 pick.
The starter across from James, CB Pritchett, likewise accepted a 2024 Reese's Senior Bowl invitation and is opting-out to begin his preparations. Pritchett, a three-year starter, was limited to seven games due to injury this fall.
HC Hugh Freeze also strongly insinuated in the days leading up to this game that starting safeties Jaylin Simpson (88.7 cover grade) and Zion Puckett (63.8 PFF grade) would skip this game to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Injury news: Starting EDGE Mosiah Nasili-Kite (176 snaps) was lost in Week 5 to an injury presumed to be season-ending.
Coaching News: First-year HC Hugh Freeze went 6-1 SU and ATS in bowl games at his previous stops. Auburn analyst Kendall Simmons, a former NFL standout, left to become MTSU's new OL coach. DB coach Wes McGriff was transitioned to an off-field role during the regular season to address a "personal matter."
Maryland Terrapins
QB1 Taulia Tagovailoa opted-out on Dec. 19. He finishes his career as the Terps’ all-time leading passer. It goes without saying that this is an enormous loss. This line shifted from Auburn -2.5 to Auburn -6 within 20 minutes of that news hitting the wire.
Maryland is expected to go with a QB platoon of veteran QB Bill Edwards and freshman QB Cam Edge in the bowl game. That pair is expected to compete with NC State transfer QB M.J. Morris for the 2024 QB1 gig next summer.
RB2 Littleton’s defection elevates Colby McDonald to backup RB duties in this game behind Roman Hemby.
Starting LB Barham transferred to Michigan.
Other opt-out news: OL DJ Glaze and DB Beau Brade are heading to the NFL Draft, but both said they will play in this game.
Coaching News: HC Mike Locksley is a perfect 2-0 ATS in bowls.
The Handicap
Earlier this month, I bought Auburn -2.5 and u50.5 tickets.
With where both respective prices sit as I type this - Auburn -6.5 and 47.5, respectively - I can no longer advocate for plays on those sides. The value has been zapped.
My action is done for this game But if I had to make a play at the current number, I would take the points with Maryland.
While the market aggressively penalized Maryland for the loss of QB Tagovailoa, it didn't penalize Auburn any for losing an impact defensive line starter and all four starters in the secondary.
The pick: Auburn -2.5 | Under 50.5
Orange Bowl | Miami, FL
Saturday, December 30 | 4:00p | ESPN
Total: 44.5 | ATL: UGA -25.1 | ATT: 47.6
Georgia Bulldogs
QB2 Vandagriff announced his transfer to Kentucky on Dec. 6. The No. 37 overall recruit in 2021, Vandagriff attempted 18 passes in 2023 as Carson Beck's backup. Gunner Stockton will be QB2 for the bowl game.
Superstar TE Brock Bowers and stud OT Amarius Mims both did not travel with the team to this game. Though no official announcement has been made, they are both presumed out. Bowers did not appear to be 100-percent healthy in the SEC title game after coming back from a high-ankle sprain. Mims left that game after aggravating his own high-ankle sprain.
Georgia HC Kirby Smart said the Bulldogs don't have many healthy opt-outs for the Orange Bowl. "Right now we've got our guys that are healthy playing. Guys that are completely healthy cleared to play, they've all said they're going to play," Smart said on Dec. 27.
Other opt-out news: Georgia has a number of potential opt-outs. The list of expected declarees for the NFL Draft on the roster includes TE Brock Bowers (520 snaps), WR Ladd McConkey, OG Tate Ratledge, OT Amarius Mims (297 snaps), C Sedrick Van Pran (821 snaps), DT Nazir Stackhouse (388 snaps), CB Kamari Lassiter (678 snaps), and S Javon Bullard (555 snaps).
Injury news: WR Rara Thomas (391 snaps/23 recs/383 yards/16.7 YPC) missed the final two games with a foot issue. Superstar TE Brock Bowers missed the final game of the season and was limited in the SEC Championship Game. Perhaps most importantly, OT Amarius Mims left the SEC Title game which could affect his decision whether or not to opt-out.
Coaching News: HC Kirby Smart is a career 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in bowl games. DB coach Fran Brown left to become Syracuse's new HC.
Florida State Seminoles
At current count, 23 players on Florida State have opted-out of this game! That doesn’t count injuries, such as the one to QB Jordan Travis.
Things are so bad that FSU shifted players to other positions to flesh out its depth chart in advance of this game — for example, WRs Ja’Khi Douglas and Joshua Burrell are listed as RBs for the bowl.
QB2 Rodemaker opted-out on Christmas Day. He would have started this game with QB1 Jordan Travis OFY with a leg injury (below). This means that freshman QB3 Brock Glenn, who started against Louisville in the ACC Championship Game, will draw the start. Glenn completed 8-of-21 passes for 55 yards in that game. It also means that FSU does not have an scholarship QB on the roster to back up Glenn (since QB4 AJ Duffy is also in the portal).
This is a truly hairy situation — the Seminoles will dress walk-ons Dylan McNamara and Michael Grant as the immediate backups to Glenn. Though, really, if Glenn goes down, FSU is likely go to Wildcat the rest of the game. You’re going to see a heavy-dose of that as is, as you did against the Cardinals. Wildcat was by far and away FSU’s most efficient source of offense in that game.
RB1 Benson, who is Mel Kiper’s No. 2 draft-eligible RB, ran for 905 yards and 14 TD this season.
WR Wilson is a 6-foot-7 matchup nightmare. His absence is notable for multiple reasons. Not only a strong starter, Wilson was also very clearly QB2 Rodemaker’s favorite target. Fellow star WR Keon Coleman, a potential Round 1 pick who led the ACC with 11 TD, had 50 catches for 658 yards in his only season in Tallahassee.
TE Bell is listed No. 3 on Mel Kiper’s FB/H-Back position rankings.
EDGE Verse could have been a first-rounder last spring, but he elected to return for one final season. He confirmed he will skip this game to begin his NFL Draft preparations.
Other opt-out news: DB Jarrian Jones declared for the NFL Draft, but says he will play in this game.
Injury news: QB Jordan Travis suffered a gruesome leg injury which has pressed backup QB Tate Rodemaker into the starting role. Rodemaker has gone 32-for-56 (57%) for 510 passing yards, 9.1 yards per pass attempt and a 5-to-0 TD/INT ratio thus far in 2023.
Coaching News: HC Mike Norvell is a career 0-5 ATS in bowl games. DC Adam Fuller, who received interest from Texas A&M, ultimately inked a new three-year contract to stay in Tallahassee.
The Handicap
I don't know how you could draw up a bigger deflation spot than the one Florida State is in. You know plenty about that, so I won't dwell.
But we also have never seen an opt-out situation quite as bad as this one.
The Seminoles are going to, essentially, be playing their second- and third-stringers against a Georgia team that is close to full strength.
The Bulldogs, remember, were wire-to-wire No. 1 in the country prior to losing to Alabama in the SEC title game. It goes without question that Georgia's talent is top-three in the nation.
I'm not going to sugarcoat it. This is a legitimate David vs. Goliath scenario. The only difference is that David went into his fight believing he could win.
I'm holding a Georgia -14 ticket. But this is playable all the way to Georgia -23.5. I'm not sure how Florida State is going to score in this game. And I'm not sure how their decimated defense keeps QB Carson Beck and friends off the scoreboard.
The pick: Georgia -14
Arizona Bowl | Tucson, AZ
Saturday, December 30 | 4:30p | Barstool
Total: 44.6 | ATL: Wyoming -5.8 | ATT: 44.1
Toledo Rockets
A dual-threat QB who is coming off his best passing season, Finn completed 63% of his passes for 2,660 yards, 8.3 yards per attempt and a 22-to-9 ratio. He handled the rush extremely well as is evidenced by his 8.4% pressure-to-sack rate, and his 78.9 PFF overall grade is a 5.7 point increase over the previous season.
RB Boone, who led the MAC in rushing yards, entered the transfer portal and has already released his top-3 list of potential suitors. All signs point to him being out.
Starting OG Sciury was picked up in the portal by Texas Tech after posting a superb 89.4 PFF pass blocking grade and allowing just one sack on 412 pass block reps this season. He was one of the G5’s best interior offensive linemen in 2023.
Other opt-out news: CB1 Quinyon Mitchell is the top cornerback at the G5 level and could choose to opt out of the bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft. Mitchell allowed just 27 receptions on 62 targets for a 43.5% catch rate, 14 PBU and a sterling 51.1 NFL passer rating when targeted.
Coaching News: HC Jason Candle is 0-5 ATS in bowl games as permanent HC. The Rockets won their first bowl game SU under Candle last year against Liberty. Interestingly, that came in the Boca Raton Bowl - the game Candle won as interim HC in 2015 over Temple before taking over the gig permanently.
Wyoming Cowboys
Starting CB Taylor missed the last two games of the regular season, so Wyoming at least has recent experience making-do without him.
Injury news: RT Caden Barnett started the first 10 games before going down with an injury against UNLV in Week 11. He was barely able to play over the final two games, logging just eight total reps, but the extra recovery time is encouraging for his availability.
Coaching News: HC Craig Bohl announced that he will retire after this game. Bohl, one of the most successful coaches in program history, made six bowl games in 10 seasons. He's 4-0-1 ATS in his previous five trips. Bohl produced eight NFL Draft picks at Wyoming, including QB Josh Allen and LB Logan Wilson. Wyoming went 7-0 SU at home in 2023, in what turned out to be Bohl's final regular season. Wyoming promoted DC/safeties coach Jay Sawvel to permanent HC and made it official with a five-year, $5.8 million deal. Sawvel has no previous head coaching experience. Sawvel was previously DC at Minnesota and Wake Forest. OC Tim Polasek was hired as FCS NDSU’s new HC.
The Handicap
Not only is this a "win one for the Gipper" game in HC Craig Bohl's final game, but Wyoming has the better roster heading into this game when you factor in opt-outs.
Toledo's offense three enormous losses in QB Finn, RB Boone, and OG Sciury were all among the best players at their positions in the entire G5.
Toledo is going to struggle throwing the ball with QB2 Tucker Gleason. Already an extremely run-heavy team, the Rockets' game plan is going to go right into Wyoming's defensive strength, its run defense.
Wyoming grinds out enough points here to send HC Bohl out a winner.
The pick: Wyoming -3
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
