College Football Peach Bowl Odds & Picks: Penn State vs. Ole Miss (Saturday)
Here's a look at the spreads and totals for today's College Football Bowl Games, along with my custom projections and handicaps. Here are my best bets for Saturday’s college football bowl games. Below we dive into Penn State vs. Ole Miss.
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Best College Football Bowl Game Bets: Penn State vs. Ole Miss
Penn State vs. Ole Miss
Peach Bowl | Atlanta, GA
Saturday, December 30 | 12:00p | ESPN
Total: 48.5 | ATL: PSU -2.2 | ATT: 59.1
Penn State Nittany Lions
- WR Cristian Driver | 27 snaps | Transfer portal
- EDGE Chop Robinson | 303 snaps | NFL Draft
- CB Jace Tutty | 3 snaps | Transfer portal
- CB Johnny Dixon | 497 snaps | NFL Draft
- P Alex Bacchetta | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
EDGE Robinson is a devastating pass-rusher, and a potential Round 1 pick. He confirmed in his declaration announcement that he will not play in this game.
CB Johnny Dixon, out of eligibility, decided to start his draft process early by opting-out of this game. He recently accepted a Senior Bowl invite. Over 31 targets, Dixon allowed a 21-244-0 receiving line. He was an All-Big Ten third-team selection in 2023. Penn State CB coach Terry Smith said in September that Dixon was "going to be drafted very high.”
Bacchetta was PSU's backup punter. The writing was on the wall with the NCAA granting starting P Riley Thompson, an Aussie who was a 2022 Freshman All-American, two more years of eligibility.
Other opt-out news: LT Olu Fashanu (722 snaps) declared for the NFL Draft and is a potential top-10 pick. Fashanu said in a statement that he would be with the team for this game. He has been practicing with the team in advance of this game. He could still elect not to play, but many believe he’ll log at least some snaps. “Fashanu likely will play limited reps in the game,” reported Sports Illustrated on Dec. 23. Fashanu was the Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year and a consensus All-American.
TE Theo Johnson (615 snaps) declared for the NFL Draft but was very clear that he intends to play in this game. It’s possible he will play decreased snaps. Johnson had 325 yards and a career-high six TD in 2023.
Penn State star CBs Kalen King (481 snaps) announced he will play in this game, a big development with CB Dixon out the door.
Injury news: WR Harrison Wallace (21 targets/61.0 PFF overall grade) battled injuries all year, playing in six games with his final appearance coming in Week 9 when he ran four routes before departing.
Coaching News: Penn State will have interim coordinators on both sides for the bowl game. Duke hired PSU DC Manny Diaz - a semifinalist for the Broyles Award - as HC. Diaz's Nittany Lion defense leads the NCAA with a streak of 17-straight games holding opponents to 24-points-or-less. PSU hired former Indiana HC Tom Allen to replace Diaz, but Allen won’t be coaching in the bowl. Instead, PSU has named Anthony Poindexter and Robb Smith interim co-DCs for the bowl.
Offensively, PSU fired OC Mike Yurcich on Nov. 12 after the 24-15 loss to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions hired former Kansas OC Andy Kotelnicki to replace him. During Peach Bowl preparations and the game itself, Kotelnicki will be with the team, but only in what the Nittany Lions deemed "an observatory role."
PSU went 2-0 in the final two games with interim co-OCs Ja’Quan Seider and Ty Howle. That pair will once again call plays in the Peach Bowl.
While PSU's offense struggled this year, HC James Franklin's teams have a track record of going over the total in bowl season. In Franklin's 11 career bowl games, nine have gone over the total. Franklin himself is a career 7-4 ATS in bowl games.
Ole Miss Rebels
- QB Spencer Sanders | 67 snaps | NFL Draft
- WR Rayf Vinson | 2 snaps | Transfer portal
- WR Bralon Brown | 56 snaps | Transfer portal
- WR JJ Henry | 27 snaps | Transfer portal
- TE Kyrinn Heath | 121 snaps | Transfer portal
- TE Michael Trigg | 79 snaps | Transfer portal
- OT Cedric Melton | 27 snaps | Transfer portal
- EDGE Cedric Johnson | 526 snaps | Transfer portal
- EDGE Reginald Hughes | 40 snaps | Transfer portal
- S Isheem Young| 130 snaps | Transfer portal
- S Demarko Williams | 153 snaps | Transfer portal
QB2 Sanders was deemed academically ineligible following the fall semester. He is not able to participate in the Peach Bowl, and will begin his NFL Draft prep.
EDGE Johnson, who recently accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, had 5.5 sacks this year and 19 in his career. He's a solid pass-rusher, but not as effective against the run.
Other opt-out news: QB1 Jaxson Dart will start. He's been emphatic about that. He just won't answer questions about his future until after the game, stating: “We’re going to take that decision as a family decision, and there’s a time and place for that. Right now, I’m fully just focused on the bowl game and winning this game.”
Injury news: Starting RT Micah Pettus (608 snaps/63.3 overall grade) is out for the year after being injured in Ole Miss' Week 10 contest against Texas A&M. WR Zakhari Franklin has had knee issues all season long and hasn't suited up since Week 10 when he ran just three routes before leaving the game.
Coaching News: Since 2012, all five bowl games that HC Lane Kiffin led a team into went under the total. The Rebels are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 bowl games - with six-straight going under - though Kiffin is a modest 2-4 ATS in bowls as HC. One of Kiffin's analysts, Sterlin Gilbert, a former FBS OC, left to become Cal's new QB coach. TE coach John David Baker left to become ECU's new OC.
The Handicap
Matchup between a pair of 10-2 teams whose only losses were to elite opponents. Ole Miss lost games to Alabama and Georgia. Penn State lost to Michigan and Ohio State.
EDGE Cedric Johnson became the first significant Ole Miss player to opt-out of a bowl in the past three seasons. Outside of him, Ole Miss was unscathed.
Penn State, meanwhile, had two enormous opt-outs on the defensive side. It remains unclear how much LT Fashanu will play.
Based on the losses on both sides, my system believes this line is short.
Ole Miss' offense, which ranks No. 6 in adjusted tempo, puts a ton of pressure on opposing defenses with its breakneck pace and ability, at all times, to be multiple.
Penn State didn't allow more than 24 points to any opponent this season. I believe that changes in this game. Penn State is going to return fire, of course. But I believe Ole Miss pulls off the upset in a back-and-forth affair that jumps over the total.
Let's call it Ole Miss 31-28.
The picks: Ole Miss +5 | Over 49.5
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