Giants vs. Commanders NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 9)
Introducing the Week 9 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 9 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Giants vs. Commanders.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 9 Betting Primer>>
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
Sides:
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 14 games. They are 6-1 ATS and straight up in their last seven games.
- The Commanders have lost seven of their last 11 home games.
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 11 games as favorites.
- The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Giants are 9-7 ATS over their last 16 games.
- The Giants have lost nine of their last 13 road games.
- The Giants were the 6th-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1).
- The Giants are 8-13 ATS as road underdogs.
- They are 1-3 ATS at home this season.
- The road team has covered the spread in four of the Giants' last six games.
- Their opponents have scored first in each of the Giants' last four road games.
- The Giants are 12-6-1 at home ATS and as home underdogs, 69% ATS (9-4-1).
- New York is 6-3 ATS (67%) in their last nine divisional matchups.
- The Giants have lost each of their last four home games.
Totals:
- Four of the Commanders' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Commanders' last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Per DraftKings Sportsbook, seven of the Commanders’ last eight road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- When Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 6-3 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 13-3 toward the OVER.
- The Giants are 7-10 toward the over in the last 17 games
- New York has scored 20-plus points in seven of their last 14 games.
- Seven of the Giants' last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the Giants’ last 12 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
The Commanders’ defense is night and day on the road compared to at home. They are the No. 2 defense in yards per game at home this season. They rank 30th in that category on the road. Some might view this as noisy, but we saw this splits trend last season with the Browns.
The betting trends favor Big Blue catching points at home. We saw these teams face off earlier this season in a breakout game for Malik Nabers. The Giants didn't give up a touchdown on defense, but they still lost by three points (21-18).
New York has continued to stifle teams in the red zone, boasting the fifth-best red zone defense.
Their defense, in general, has been pretty underrated. According to Next Gen Stats, the Giants have recorded a 35.0% pressure rate this season (10th), including a 44.2% pressure rate when blitzing (11th). They have a 35.7% pressure-to-sack conversion rate (1st) while recording a sack on a league-high 12.5% of dropbacks.
They rank dead last offensively in the red zone. Washington's offense has also had red-zone struggles, ranking 24th in red-zone TD conversion rate.
MetLife Stadium is home to the unders (one over combined between Jets/Giants), whereas the Commanders' road defense has created shootout game environments.
There's a push-and-pull dichotomy here when choosing sides, which is pushing me away from this game with a spread of a field goal plus. Remember the last time these teams played, the Giants didn't have a kicker? Early in the week, I was bullish on Commanders -3. But I don't feel nearly as great with the line moved to 3.5/4 in certain spots.
Ultimately, my most confident projection in this game is betting on the Commanders’ rushing offense. As presented by Next Gen Stats, Brian Robinson has recorded +67 rushing yards over expected on inside rushes this season, the fifth-most in the NFL.
Robinson has totaled 69 carries for 311 yards and five touchdowns on such carries. Robinson recorded 10 carries for 109 yards (10.9 YPC) and +74 rushing yards over expected on inside rushes against the Giants in Week 2, the most RYOE on such carries by a running back in a game this season. The Giants have allowed +163 rushing yards over expected to inside carries this season, most in the NFL.
I expect both offenses to pile up yardage in this game, with the O/U likely coming down to red-zone efficiency. Washington's red-zone defense isn't great, and their lapses on the road have me looking toward the over.
And even though the Giants have a good red zone defense, you can only keep this Commanders offense at bay for so long. Had one of their seven field goals been a TD the last time these teams met, or the Giants converted any of their extra-point attempts, this game would have gone over 43.5 points.
Props:
Brian Robinson destroyed the Giants’ defense to the tune of 133 rushing yards when these teams first played back in Week 2.
Malik Nabers has four games with 7-plus catches and two with four or fewer. If he is going over his reception prop (like he did back in Week 2 against the Commanders with ten catches), it will go WAY over the line. Bet it at plus money.
Tight end Zach Ertz was a key target in Week 8, hauling in 7 of his 11 targets for 77 yards. Ertz commanded a high 32.35% target share, contributing 113 air yards (27.16%). He has at least 3.5 catches in three straight games as the pseudo No. 2 WR for the Commanders.
My Picks: