Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars Odds & Game Pick
The Jaguars and Texans face off in London in a key matchup for the AFC South divisional race. J.J. Watt is out for the season, which will be a huge blow to the Texans’ defensive front. The last time the teams faced off, the Jags lost after going for two rather than an extra point to tie the game.
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Details
- Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Texans -3; O/U 47. The odds have tipped in favor of the Jags, probably because of the season-ending injury to Watt.
- Current Line: Texans -1.5
- O/U: 46
- Location: Wembley Stadium, London, England
- Start Time: 9:30 am ET
- Television: NFL
- Last Meeting: September 15, 2019 – The Texans defeated the Jaguars 13-12 in Houston.
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Overview
The Jaguars will be looking for revenge after their Week 2 matchup against Houston saw Leonard Fournette stood up at the inch-line on a two-point conversion attempt. That play is the only thing preventing the Jaguars from entering this game at 5-3 and the Texans at 4-4.
This will be the first time a team is getting a second look at rookie Gardner Minshew II, and it will be interesting to see what the Texans throw at him considering, in their first matchup, he completed 69.7 percent of his passes, the best number for him in a game he has started. He also led the team in rushing that game. Since then, the run-game has been much better, with Leonard Fournette rushing for at least 70 yards in his last five games. That includes three 100-yard performances and one monster 225-yard performance. He’s currently second in the league with 791 rushing yards, behind only Dalvin Cook.
It will be a battle of strengths this week, as the Texans’ defense is giving up the fifth-least rushing yards per game this season. They will look to neutralize Fournette and put the game entirely in Minshew’s hands. While they should be at an advantage seeing Minshew for the second time, losing J.J. Watt for the season is a brutal blow to their pass rush. The rest of the line will need to step up to put pressure on Minshew and stop the run.
Trends
- The Texans are 4-4 ATS this season.
- The Jaguars are 5-3 ATS this season.
- The Texans are 9-2 in their last 11 games against the Jaguars.
- The total has gone under in four of the last five games between the teams.
- The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the AFC.
- The Texans are 13-3 in their last 16 games against the AFC.
Prop Bet
FIRST HALF UNDER 23 (+100)
I was on the Jags’ first half under last week and could not have been more wrong, but this feels like a defensive struggle waiting to happen. Jacksonville’s defense has been playing very good, and the Texans’ defense should be able to slow down Minshew now that they have played against him once. The first game ended 13-12, and while this game should be higher scoring, these are two teams that want to possess the ball and run clock. Add in the long travel, and it seems like a recipe for a slow start.
Bottom Line
I’m very opposed to divisional games being played on neutral sites. It’s a huge advantage for the Texans to get a home game against the Jags, but for the Jags to not get the same. London has been good to the Jags in recent seasons, and they have a solid fan base out there, so this should feel somewhat like a home game despite not really being one. But the Texans are the better team right now, even without J.J. Watt. This should be another close game, and if I have to pick between Deshaun Watson and Gardner Minshew to lead a game-winning drive, I’m going with Watson.
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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.