Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 3 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets
In this article each week I’ll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
All odds are from the following sportsbooks.
Click on the sportsbook links above to check out their promotional offers. If you’re not taking advantage of these deals, you’re basically admitting to yourself that you hate money.
Also check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 3 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 3 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team.
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Sept. 21, 1 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| CLE | PIT | -4.5 | -1 | 3.5 |
| IND | KC | 6.5 | 5.25 | -1.25 |
| NE | BAL | 3 | -0.5 | -3.5 |
| MIA | BUF | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 |
| CHI | HOU | -3 | -3.75 | -0.75 |
| CAR | NO | 3 | 2.25 | -0.75 |
| MIN | DET | -6 | -5 | 1 |
| TEN | LV | 2 | -0.5 | -2.5 |
| NYJ | CIN | 4.5 | 5.75 | 1.25 |
| WAS | PHI | 6.5 | 3.25 | -3.25 |
| LAC | JAX | -7 | -9.5 | -2.5 |
| ARI | LAR | 4 | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| SEA | ATL | -2 | -2.75 | -0.75 |
| TB | GB | -2 | -1.25 | 0.75 |
| DEN | SF | 1.5 | -0.5 | -2 |
| NYG | DAL | -2.5 | -1 | 1.5 |
Based on my current projections, I’m willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.
- Steelers +4.5 at Browns
- Patriots +3 vs. Ravens
- Titans +2 vs. Raiders
- Commanders +6.5 vs. Eagles
- Chargers -7 vs. Jaguars
Freedman’s Week 3 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Check out our Steelers at Browns matchup page.
- Kickoff: Thursday, Sept. 22, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: FirstEnergy Stadium
- TV: Prime Video
Steelers at Browns: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Browns -4.5
- Over/Under: 38.5
- Moneyline: Browns -200, Steelers +165
Steelers at Browns: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.
- Spread: Browns – 24% bets, 26% money
- Over/Under: Under – 51% bets, 88% money
- Moneyline: Browns – 15% bets, 22% money
Steelers at Browns: Key Injuries
Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed |
| Devin Bush | ILB | Foot | LP | FP | FP |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | FS | Lower Leg Cramps | NA | NA | LP |
Pittsburgh Steelers: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE T.J. Watt (pectoral, IR): OUT
- S Damontae Kazee (wrist, IR): OUT
- S Karl Joseph (ankle, IR): OUT
- WR Calvin Austin (foot, IR): OUT
Cleveland Browns: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed |
| Jadeveon Clowney | DE | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP |
| Harrison Bryant | TE | Thumb, Thigh | DNP | LP | FP |
| Isaiah Thomas | DE | Hand | FP | FP | FP |
| Joel Bitonio | G | Biceps | DNP | DNP | LP |
| Jack Conklin | OT | Knee | LP | LP | LP |
| Chris Hubbard | OT | Illness | DNP | LP | LP |
Cleveland Browns: IR, PUP & Out
- QB DeShaun Watson (suspension): OUT
- EDGE Chase Winovich (hamstring, IR): OUT
- CB Greedy Williams (hamstring, IR): OUT
- C Nick Harris (knee, IR): OUT
- WR Jakeem Grant (Achilles, IR): OUT
- EDGE Stephen Weatherly (knee, IR): OUT
- TE Jesse James (biceps, IR): OUT
- EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (ankle): OUT
Steelers at Browns: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Pittsburgh Steelers Trends
- HC Mike Tomlin: 46-23-3 ATS (29.4% ROI) as underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin: 38-34 ML (34.0% ROI) as underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin: 51-37-3 ATS (13.4% ROI) in division
- HC Mike Tomlin: 63-27-1 ML (16.9% ROI) in division
- HC Mike Tomlin: 20-6-2 ATS (44.9% ROI) as divisional underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin: 16-12 ML (42.2% ROI) as divisional underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin: 4-0 ATS (89.9% ROI) vs. Browns HC Kevin Stefanski
- HC Mike Tomlin: 3-1 ML (62.5% ROI) vs. Browns HC Kevin Stefanski
Cleveland Browns Trends
- HC Kevin Stefanski: 7-15 ATS (31.1% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kevin Stefanski: 1-11 ATS (74.6% ROI for faders) in division
- HC Kevin Stefanski: 0-7 ATS (89.1% ROI for faders) as divisional favorite
Steelers at Browns: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Steelers Offense vs. Browns Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.1 | 24 | 0.142 | 28 | 4 |
| Total SR | 38.7% | 29 | 40.2% | 7 | -22 |
| Total DVOA | -13.6% | 22 | 9.9% | 22 | 0 |
Steelers Offense vs. Browns Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.051 | 23 | 0.019 | 18 | -5 |
| Total SR | 40.2% | 30 | 42.0% | 6 | -24 |
| Total DVOA | -11.0% | 25 | -2.5% | 11 | -14 |
Browns Offense vs. Steelers Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.178 | 5 | -0.062 | 6 | 1 |
| Total SR | 47.2% | 10 | 42.7% | 11 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | 29.0% | 4 | -10.5% | 8 | 4 |
Browns Offense vs. Steelers Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.014 | 18 | 0.006 | 16 | -2 |
| Total SR | 43.7% | 21 | 43.5% | 12 | -9 |
| Total DVOA | 4.2% | 14 | -0.6% | 14 | 0 |
Steelers at Browns: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 32 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Mitchell Trubisky
- EPA + CPOE: -0.011 (No. 28)
- AY/A: 5.0 (No. 27)
- QBR: 38.4 (No. 24)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.2 (No. 16)
2021: Mitchell Trubisky
- EPA + CPOE: N/A
- AY/A: N/A
- QBR: N/A
- ATS Value vs. Average: N/A
Career: Mitchell Trubisky
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -17.2
2022: Jacoby Brissett
- EPA + CPOE: 0.153 (No. 8)
- AY/A: 6.1 (No. 23)
- QBR: 59.3 (No. 12)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.9 (No. 26)
2021: Jacoby Brissett
- EPA + CPOE: 0.025 (No. 31)
- AY/A: 5.3 (No. 31)
- QBR: 48.2 (No. 22, if qualified)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -1.9 (No. 39)
Career: Jacoby Brissett
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -34.7
Key Matchup: Steelers Offensive Line vs. Browns Defensive Line
I know that the Steelers offense is supposedly bad and the Browns defense is presumably good. But based on how they’ve performed so far in 2022 they seem fairly even.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.1 | 24 | 0.142 | 28 | 4 |
| Total DVOA | -13.6% | 22 | 9.9% | 22 | 0 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.117 | 24 | 0.225 | 28 | 4 |
| Pass DVOA | -7.2% | 22 | 15.7% | 24 | 2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.7% | 15 | 7.7% | 16 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.066 | 16 | -0.05 | 16 | 0 |
| Rush DVOA | -14.0% | 20 | -2.6% | 20 | 0 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.88 | 23 | 4.68 | 19 | -4 |
We have the Steelers offensive line at No. 30 in our FantasyPros unit power rankings. It’s not good — but it has been decent enough to allow the offense as a whole to put up league-average numbers, and the Browns defense has been middling to date.
All-Pro EDGE Myles Garrett could have a big day against LT Dan Moore — but maybe he won’t. Moore this year has allowed just one pressure and quarterback hit on 77 pass rush opportunities (per PFF), and Garrett will have little support, given that fellow EDGEs Jadeveon Clowney (ankle), Chase Winovich (hamstring, IR) and Stephen Weatherly (knee, IR) are all out with injuries.
On top of that, Garrett (neck) is dealing with a spine issue of his own.
If the Steelers provide Moore with help against Garrett, they could keep QB Mitchell Trubisky clean in the pocket — and an unpressured Trubisky might just be good enough to cover.
Especially against this guy.
This line was +3 in the lookahead market, so +4.5 feels like too much.
Best Line: Steelers +4.5 (-110, BetMGM, PointsBet, Caesars, probably DK and FD)
First Recommended: Steelers +3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Steelers +1
Limit: Steelers +3
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Check out our Ravens at Patriots matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium
- TV: FOX
Ravens at Patriots: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Ravens -3
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Moneyline: Ravens -155, Patriots +135
Ravens at Patriots: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.
- Spread: Patriots – 11% bets, 19% money
- Over/Under: Under – 31% bets, 48% money
- Moneyline: Patriots – 78% bets, 97% money
Ravens at Patriots: Key Injuries
Baltimore Ravens: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Calais Campbell | DE | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Devin Duvernay | WR | Concussion | DNP |
| Justin Houston | OLB | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Marlon Humphrey | CB | Groin | DNP |
| Marcus Peters | CB | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | Knee | FP |
| Travis Jones | DT | Knee | FP |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | Right Elbow | LP |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | Groin | LP |
| James Proche | WR | Groin | LP |
| Ronnie Stanley | OT | Ankle | LP |
| Brandon Stephens | CB | Quad | LP |
| Damarion Williams | CB | Ankle | LP |
Baltimore Ravens: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE Steven Means (Achilles, IR): OUT
- CB Kyle Fuller (knee, IR): OUT
- OT Ja’Wuan James (Achilles, IR): OUT
- LB Vince Biegel (Achilles, IR): OUT
- EDGE David Ojabo (Achilles, PUP): OUT
- EDGE Tyus Bowser (Achilles, PUP): OUT
- RB Gus Edwards (knee, PUP): OUT
New England Patriots: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Kyle Dugger | S | Knee | DNP |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Joshuah Bledsoe | SAF | Groin | LP |
| Cody Davis | DB | Calf | LP |
| Davon Godchaux | NT | Back | LP |
| Raekwon McMillan | MLB | Thumb | LP |
| DaMarcus Mitchell | DE | Knee | LP |
| Adrian Phillips | DB | Ribs | LP |
New England Patriots: IR, PUP & Out
- RB Ty Montgomery (ankle, IR): OUT
- WR Tyquan Thornton (shoulder, IR): OUT
- EDGE Ronnie Perkins (undisclosed, IR): OUT
- CB Joejuan Williams (shoulder, IR): OUT
Ravens at Patriots: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Baltimore Ravens Trends
- HC John Harbaugh: 59-48-6 ATS (8.4% ROI) on road
- QB Lamar Jackson: 16-9 ATS (26.5% ROI) on road
New England Patriots Trends
- HC Bill Belichick: 29-24-1 ATS (7.9% ROI) without QB Tom Brady
- HC Bill Belichick: 30-16-2 ATS (26.8% ROI) as underdog
- HC Bill Belichick: 25-23 ML (33.5% ROI) as underdog
- HC Bill Belichick: 5-1-1 ATS (54.1% ROI) vs. Ravens HC John Harbaugh
- HC Bill Belichick: 5-2 ML (49.3% ROI) vs. Ravens HC John Harbaugh
Ravens at Patriots: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Ravens Offense vs. Patriots Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.17 | 6 | -0.015 | 11 | 5 |
| Total SR | 43.8% | 17 | 45.7% | 21 | 4 |
| Total DVOA | 31.9% | 1 | -5.3% | 11 | 10 |
Ravens Offense vs. Patriots Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.009 | 19 | -0.063 | 4 | -15 |
| Total SR | 46.4% | 10 | 42.5% | 7 | -3 |
| Total DVOA | 1.7% | 17 | -12.8% | 4 | -13 |
Patriots Offense vs. Ravens Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.033 | 17 | 0.103 | 26 | 9 |
| Total SR | 47.5% | 9 | 45.2% | 17 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 7.4% | 11 | 9.9% | 21 | 10 |
Patriots Offense vs. Ravens Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.07 | 10 | 0.078 | 27 | 17 |
| Total SR | 48.6% | 4 | 43.2% | 11 | 7 |
| Total DVOA | 10.5% | 9 | 9.3% | 28 | 19 |
Ravens at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 32 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Lamar Jackson
- EPA + CPOE: 0.180 (No. 5)
- AY/A: 10.3 (No. 1)
- QBR: 76.5 (No. 4)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 2.3 (No. 6)
2021: Lamar Jackson
- EPA + CPOE: 0.084 (No. 20)
- AY/A: 6.9 (No. 18)
- QBR: 56.8 (No. 17)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.4 (No. 14)
Career: Lamar Jackson
- AY/A: 7.8
- QB Elo per Game: 82.1
2022: Mac Jones
- EPA + CPOE: 0.058 (No. 14)
- AY/A: 6.4 (No. 19)
- QBR: 32.0 (No. 26)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.1 (No. 17)
2021: Mac Jones
- EPA + CPOE: 0.114 (No. 12)
- AY/A: 7.0 (No. 16)
- QBR: 56.9 (No. 16)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.7 (No. 21)
Career: Mac Jones
- AY/A: 6.9
- QB Elo per Game: -14.6
Key Matchup: Patriots Run Defense vs. Ravens Run Offense
Even though this year the Ravens are “only†No. 11 with a 43.0% rush rate, they are a running team at their core. That’s what happens when you have QB Lamar Jackson (a ground attack cheat code) and OC Greg Roman (a run game coordinator by trade).
In trading away No. 1 WR Marquise Brown this offseason and replacing him in the draft with two tight ends (instead of wide receivers), the Ravens signaled that they want to return to their 2019 run-heavy ways.
But they could struggle to run against the Patriots. No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins (knee) is yet to return from last year’s season-ending injury. No. 2 RB Gus Edwards (knee, PUP) is out. Backup RBs Kenyon Drake (17-39-0 rushing) and Mike Davis (7-15-0) have been pedestrian injury fill-ins.
Additionally, starting LT Ronnie Stanley (ankle) is yet to play this year after appearing in just one game last year and six games the year before that. And backup LT Ja’Wuan James (Achilles, IR) is out.
With all these injuries, the Ravens offense has been predictably terrible on the ground this year, and the Patriots defense has been average at worst.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.264 | 29 | -0.046 | 17 | -12 |
| Rush SR | 27.9% | 31 | 48.8% | 27 | -4 |
| Rush DVOA | -43.5% | 32 | -6.3% | 17 | -15 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.04 | 31 | 3.73 | 8 | -23 |
| Yards per Play | 7 | 1 | 4.7 | 6 | 5 |
| Points per Game | 31 | 4 | 17 | 8 | 4 |
As a result, the Patriots defense has been a top-five unit in yards per play and points game through two games — just like the Ravens offense.
If the Patriots keep the Ravens in check on the ground, that could force them into a heavy reliance on the passing game, and while the Ravens have had success in the air this year (No. 1 in pass DVOA, 103.8%) it’s never a positive development to become one dimensional against a Belichick defense.
Plus, the Ravens have had fortuitous matchups to open the year, facing the bottom-two defenses in pass DVOA in Weeks 1-2.
- Jets (Week 1): 55.4% (No. 32)
- Dolphins (Week 2): 48.2% (No. 31)
I’m skeptical that the Ravens pass offense is as good as it has recently looked — and if their run offense struggles in Week 3 then they could have an underwhelming performance overall.
In the preseason market, this number was a pick’em. Not that much has changed between then and now.
Best Line: Patriots +3 (+100, Caesars)
First Recommended: Patriot +3 (-108)
Personal Projection: Patriots -0.5
Limit: Patriots +2
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Las Vegas Raiders at Tennessee Titans
Check out our Raiders at Titans matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Nissan Stadium
- TV: FOX
Raiders at Titans: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Raiders -2
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Raiders -129, Titans +110
Raiders at Titans: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.
- Spread: Raiders – 41% bets, 44% money
- Over/Under: Under – 45% bets, 91% money
- Moneyline: Raiders – 36% bets, 57% money
Raiders at Titans: Key Injuries
Las Vegas Raiders: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Andre James | C | Concussion | DNP |
| Chandler Jones | DE | NIR-rest | DNP |
| Tre’von Moehrig | FS | Hip | DNP |
| Bilal Nichols | DT | Shoulder | DNP |
| Denzel Perryman | MLB | Ankle | DNP |
| Hunter Renfrow | WR | Concussion | DNP |
| Brandon Bolden | RB | Hamstring | LP |
| Jermaine Eluemunor | OT | Hip | LP |
| Neil Farrell | DE | Shoulder | LP |
Las Vegas Raiders: IR, PUP & Out
- CB Anthony Averett (thumb, IR): OUT
- RT Brandon Parker (triceps, IR): OUT
- EDGE Jordan Jenkins (knee, IR): OUT
- LB Micah Kiser (leg, IR): OUT
Tennessee Titans: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Ugo Amadi | SAF | Ankle | DNP |
| Bud Dupree | OLB | Hip | DNP |
| Jamarco Jones | OT | Triceps | DNP |
| Taylor Lewan | OT | Knee | DNP |
| Ola Adeniyi | OLB | Neck | LP |
| Denico Autry | DT | Not Injury Related | LP |
| Treylon Burks | WR | Ankle | LP |
| Kristian Fulton | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| Dontrell Hilliard | RB | Hamstring | LP |
| Joe Jones | LB | Hamstring | LP |
| Kyle Philips | WR | Shoulder | LP |
Tennessee Titans: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE Harold Landry (knee, IR): OUT
- CB Elijah Molden (groin, IR): OUT
- LB Monty Rice (ankle, IR): OUT
- RB Trenton Cannon (knee, IR): OUT
- LT Taylor Lewan (knee): DNP on Wed., feared OUT for year
Raiders at Titans: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Las Vegas Raiders Trends
- QB Derek Carr: 13-24-1 ATS (25.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
- QB Derek Carr: 1-7-1 ATS (60.9% ROI for faders) as favorite vs. playoff team
Tennessee Titans Trends
- HC Mike Vrabel: 18-12 ATS (15.3% ROI) as underdog
- HC Mike Vrabel: 8-4 ATS (27.7% ROI) as home underdog
- HC Mike Vrabel: 5-1-1 ATS (54.2% ROI) off back-to-back losses
Raiders at Titans: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Raiders Offense vs. Titans Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.083 | 22 | 0.141 | 27 | 5 |
| Total SR | 43.9% | 16 | 45.6% | 19 | 3 |
| Total DVOA | -16.0% | 24 | 17.9% | 29 | 5 |
Raiders Offense vs. Titans Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.001 | 20 | -0.018 | 10 | -10 |
| Total SR | 45.2% | 13 | 42.6% | 8 | -5 |
| Total DVOA | -3.4% | 19 | -2.3% | 12 | -7 |
Titans Offense vs. Raiders Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.153 | 31 | 0.065 | 23 | -8 |
| Total SR | 42.5% | 19 | 48.0% | 30 | 11 |
| Total DVOA | -19.2% | 29 | 0.8% | 15 | -14 |
Titans Offense vs. Raiders Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.025 | 15 | 0.061 | 25 | 10 |
| Total SR | 44.7% | 15 | 44.5% | 15 | 0 |
| Total DVOA | -4.2% | 20 | 0.6% | 17 | -3 |
Ravens at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 32 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Derek Carr
- EPA + CPOE: 0.038 (No. 20)
- AY/A: 6.5 (No. 17)
- QBR: 40.6 (No. 21)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.3 (No. 19)
2021: Derek Carr
- EPA + CPOE: 0.105 (No. 16)
- AY/A: 7.4 (No. 12)
- QBR: 58.4 (No. 14)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.0 (No. 16)
Career: Derek Carr
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 14.0
2022: Ryan Tannehill
- EPA + CPOE: 0.042 (No. 18)
- AY/A: 6.3 (No. 20)
- QBR: 48.3 (No. 17)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.6 (No. 22)
2021: Ryan Tannehill
- EPA + CPOE: 0.113 (No. 13)
- AY/A: 6.6 (No. 20)
- QBR: 61.8 (No. 8)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.1 (No. 15)
Career: Ryan Tannehill
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: -4.6
Key Matchup: Titans Pass Rush vs. Raiders Pass Blocking
Even without EDGE Harold Landry (knee, IR), the Titans defensive line has a marked advantage over the Raiders offensive line in our FantasyPros unit power rankings.
| Rank | Defensive Line | Opp OL | OL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | TEN | LV | 30 | 17 |
Specifically, the Titans this year have exceled at rushing the quarterback, and the Raiders have struggled most in pass protection.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.6% | 25 | 9.5% | 6 | -19 |
If C Andre James (concussion) misses another game, I think the right side of the offensive line will be especially vulnerable. In his absence last week, rookie RG Dylan Parham shifted to center, and undrafted fourth-year backup Lester Cotton got his first NFL start filling in at right guard. Second-Team All-Pro DT Jeffery Simmons (8.5 sacks last year) could wreak havoc against those two.
And on the end of the line is RT Jermaine Eluemunor, a journeyman backup who has played most of his snaps at guard. He will likely be outmatched by EDGEs Denico Autry and Bud Dupree (hip, assuming Dupree plays).
This line was Titans -1.75 in the preseason market. Yeah, the Titans are 0-2 — but so are the Raiders.
Best Line: Titans +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Titans +2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Titans -0.5
Limit: Titans +2
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Check out our Eagles at Commanders matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: FedExField
- TV: FOX
Eagles at Commanders: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Eagles -6.5
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Moneyline: Eagles -278, Commanders +240
Eagles at Commanders: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.
- Spread: Eagles – 55% bets, 58% money
- Over/Under: Under – 51% bets, 81% money
- Moneyline: Eagles – 67% bets, 67% money
Eagles at Commanders: Key Injuries
Philadelphia Eagles: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Quez Watkins | WR | Illness | DNP |
| Avonte Maddox | CB | Back | LP |
| Haason Reddick | OLB | Knee | LP |
Philadelphia Eagles: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE Derek Barnett (knee, IR): OUT
- OT Andre Dillard (arm, IR): OUT
- OL Brett Toth (knee, PUP): OUT
- TE Tyree Jackson (knee, PUP): OUT
Washington Commanders: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Shaka Toney | DE | Illness | DNP |
| Casey Toohill | DE | Concussion | DNP |
| Daniel Wise | DT | Ankle | DNP |
| Saahdiq Charles | OT | Shoulder | LP |
| Cole Holcomb | LB | Quad | LP |
| Trai Turner | G | Quad | LP |
Washington Commanders: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE Chase Young (knee, PUP): OUT
- C Chase Roullier (knee, IR): OUT
- C Tyler Larsen (Achilles, PUP): OUT
- RB Brian Robinson (leg, PUP): OUT
- DT Phidarian Mathis (knee, IR): OUT
Eagles at Commanders: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Philadelphia Eagles Trends
- HC Nick Sirianni: 1-4-1 ATS (44.4% ROI) in division
Washington Commanders Trends
- Divisional Underdogs: 205-146-11 ATS (13.8% ROI) in Weeks 1-4
- Divisional Underdogs: 140-100-6 ATS (13.2% ROI) vs. team with two-game win streak
- Divisional Underdogs: 24-10-2 ATS (36.1% ROI) vs. team with two-game win streak in Weeks 1-4
Eagles at Commanders: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.212 | 4 | 0.068 | 24 | 20 |
| Total SR | 50.0% | 4 | 43.0% | 12 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 27.3% | 5 | 16.2% | 28 | 23 |
Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.061 | 12 | 0.08 | 28 | 16 |
| Total SR | 46.4% | 10 | 45.1% | 18 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 8.1% | 11 | 5.8% | 27 | 16 |
Commanders Offense vs. Eagles Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.069 | 10 | -0.028 | 9 | -1 |
| Total SR | 41.7% | 22 | 45.7% | 21 | -1 |
| Total DVOA | -0.1% | 15 | -9.6% | 9 | -6 |
Commanders Offense vs. Eagles Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.036 | 21 | 0.009 | 17 | -4 |
| Total SR | 44.8% | 14 | 46.2% | 22 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | -5.3% | 21 | 4.7% | 25 | 4 |
Eagles at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 32 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jalen Hurts
- EPA + CPOE: 0.154 (No. 7)
- AY/A: 8.7 (No. 5)
- QBR: 70.8 (No. 7)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 1.7 (No. 7)
2021: Jalen Hurts
- EPA + CPOE: 0.088 (No. 18)
- AY/A: 7.1 (No. 15)
- QBR: 54.6 (No. 19)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.5 (No. 12)
Career: Jalen Hurts
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: 48.0
2022: Carson Wentz
- EPA + CPOE: 0.112 (No. 11)
- AY/A: 7.5 (No. 9)
- QBR: 51.7 (No. 14)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.2 (No. 18)
2021: Carson Wentz
- EPA + CPOE: 0.070 (No. 22)
- AY/A: 7.3 (No. 13)
- QBR: 60.6 (No. 9)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -1.6 (No. 35)
Career: Carson Wentz
- AY/A: 6.9
- QB Elo per Game: -2.2
Key Matchup: Commanders Interior Offensive Line vs. Eagles DTs Fletcher Cox & Javon Hargrave
If QB Carson Wentz is to exorcise his demons in this #RevengeGame against his former team, the interior of his offensive line will need to play well.
C Chase Roullier (knee, IR) is out, as is backup C Tyler Larsen (Achilles, PUP). And missing from last year’s starting unit are LG Ereck Flowers (released) and RG Brandon Scherff (free agency). So in Week 3 the Commanders will have three new year-over-year starters on the interior of their line, and this exact trio has never played together as a unit.
Given the situation, this looks like an excellent setup for DTs Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave.
Even so, I think the Commanders will perform adequately on their interior offensive line. RG Wes Schweitzer will shift to center, and he has made 19 starts in the interior for the Commanders since 2020: He knows the system. Replacing Schweitzer at right guard will be backup Trai Turner — a Pro-Bowler for HC Ron Rivera and OC Scott Turner from their time together with the Panthers. And although LG Andrew Norwell is new to the team, he is another Panthers transplant and was an All-Pro in 2017. He and Turner manned the interior of the Panthers offensive line together for four years (2014-17).
Even with injury issues and new starters, this is not a patchworked interior. It has decent continuity — and Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell could be significant drivers of success for the Commanders.
Without EDGE Derek Barnett (knee, IR), the Eagles defense is just No. 27 in adjusted sack rate (3.7%) through two games. If Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell are competent, they might be able to keep Wentz clean in the pocket.
And despite the offseason additions of DT Jordan Davis (draft), EDGE Haason Reddick (free agency) and LBs Kyzir White (free agency) and Nakobe Dean (draft), the Eagles are still bottom-five in run defense in every key metric.
- Rush EPA: 0.204 (No. 32)
- Rush SR: 50.0% (No. 28)
- Rush DVOA: 23.1% (No. 29)
- Adj. Line Yards: 5.56 (No. 29)
If Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell are able to hold their own against Cox and Hargrave in run blocking, the Commanders could use the rushing game to extend drives, grind down the clock, keep the explosive Eagles offense on the sideline — and keep the game close.
This line was -1 in the preseason and -3 in the lookahead market last Thursday. The -6.5 we see in the market now is an overreaction to the Eagles’ 2-0 start and their 24-7 Week 2 win against the Vikings on Monday Night Football.
Best Line: Commanders +6.5 (-105, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Commanders +6.5 (-105)
Personal Projection: Commanders +3.25
Limit: Commanders +5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers
Check out our Jaguars at Chargers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium
- TV: CBS
Jaguars at Chargers: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Chargers -7
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Moneyline: Chargers -315, Jaguars +265
Jaguars at Chargers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.
- Spread: Jaguars – 48% bets, 94% money
- Over/Under: Under – 46% bets, 87% money
- Moneyline: Jaguars – 6% bets, 36% money
Jaguars at Chargers: Key Injuries
Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 3 Injury Report
No injuries.
Jacksonville Jaguars: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE Jordan Smith (knee, IR): OUT
Los Angeles Chargers: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| J.C. Jackson | DB | Ankle | DNP |
| Corey Linsley | C | Knee | DNP |
| Keenan Allen | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Justin Herbert | QB | Ribs | LP |
| Donald Parham | TE | Hamstring | LP |
| Trey Pipkins | OT | Foot | LP |
Los Angeles Chargers: IR, PUP & Out
- DT Forrest Merrill (undisclosed, IR): OUT
Jaguars at Chargers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Jacksonville Jaguars Trends
- HC Doug Pederson: 15-25 ATS (21.4% ROI for faders) on road
- East Coast Teams: 116-94-8 ATS (6.7% ROI) on West Coast for afternoon games
Los Angeles Chargers Trends
- Home Favorites: 24-15-1 ATS (19.6% ROI) after a Thursday Night Football road loss
Jaguars at Chargers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Jaguars Offense vs. Chargers Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.09 | 9 | -0.015 | 11 | 2 |
| Total SR | 46.0% | 12 | 44.1% | 14 | 2 |
| Total DVOA | 18.6% | 9 | -14.3% | 7 | -2 |
Jaguars Offense vs. Chargers Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.079 | 28 | 0.044 | 24 | -4 |
| Total SR | 44.0% | 19 | 46.8% | 27 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | -15.1% | 27 | 4.8% | 26 | -1 |
Chargers Offense vs. Jaguars Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.045 | 11 | -0.11 | 4 | -7 |
| Total SR | 47.8% | 6 | 36.9% | 2 | -4 |
| Total DVOA | 10.3% | 10 | -30.6% | 3 | -7 |
Chargers Offense vs. Jaguars Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.088 | 5 | 0.111 | 31 | 26 |
| Total SR | 47.4% | 5 | 47.0% | 28 | 23 |
| Total DVOA | 16.0% | 4 | 11.7% | 31 | 27 |
Jaguars at Chargers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 32 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Trevor Lawrence
- EPA + CPOE: 0.185 (No. 4)
- AY/A: 7.3 (No. 10)
- QBR: 73.1 (No. 5)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.8 (No. 24)
2021: Trevor Lawrence
- EPA + CPOE: 0.009 (No. 35)
- AY/A: 5.2 (No. 32)
- QBR: 39.1 (No. 28)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -2.5 (No. 44)
Career: Trevor Lawrence
- AY/A: 5.4
- QB Elo per Game: -58.4
2022: Justin Herbert
- EPA + CPOE: 0.206 (No. 5)
- AY/A: 8.4 (No. 6)
- QBR: 70.6 (No. 8)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 3.3 (No. 3)
2021: Justin Herbert
- EPA + CPOE: 0.123 (No. 9)
- AY/A: 7.6 (No. 10)
- QBR: 70.9 (No. 3)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 3.3 (No. 5)
Career: Justin Herbert
- AY/A: 7.6
- QB Elo per Game: 79.2
Key Matchup: EDGEs Joey Bosa & Khalil Mack vs. LT Cam Robinson & RT Jawaan Taylor
This offseason, the Jaguars took steps to fortify the interior of their offensive line by drafting C Luke Fortner and signing RG Brandon Scherff. With those moves, QB Trevor Lawrence has seen significant year-over-year improvement.
But they still have LT Cam Robinson and RT Jawaan Taylor as their offensive line bookends, and they’re average. As plenty of teams know, having average tackles is better than having nothing at all — but average play won’t be good enough against EDGEs Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. With those two leading the charge (#NailedIt), the Chargers defense is No. 7 with a 9.2% adjusted sack rate.
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Chargers defensive line has a massive edge over the Jaguars offensive line, and that’s primarily because of Bosa and Mack, who already have six sacks this year.
| Rank | Defensive Line | Opp OL | OL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | LAC | JAC | 24 | 21 |
I expect to see Bosa and Mack combine for multiple sacks against the Jaguars.
Given that he got in a limited practice on Wednesday and has three extra days (from Thursday Night Football) to recover, I expect to Chargers QB Justin Herbert to play in Week 3.
And if he plays I think this line should be significantly higher. In the preseason, it was -10. In the lookahead market — before the Chargers played well against the Chiefs on TNF — it was -9.
The Jaguars’ 24-0 Week 2 over the Colts was impressive — but not enough to justify this move down to -7.
Best Line: Chargers -7 (-105, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Chargers -9 (-110)
Personal Projection: Chargers -9.5
Limit: Chargers -7.5
Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
The five spreads I’ve highlighted above are the ones that right (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.
- Steelers +4.5 at Browns
- Patriots +3.5 vs. Ravens
- Titans +2.5 vs. Raiders
- Commanders +6.5 vs. Eagles
- Chargers -7.5 vs. Jaguars
Also in consideration are:
- Bears -2.5 vs. Texans
- Rams -3.5 at Cardinals
- Seahawks -1.5 vs. Falcons
- Broncos +1.5 vs. 49ers
- Cowboys +1.5 at Giants
Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.
UPDATE (Sun. 9/25): Here’s the tweet.
Week 2 Record
- Picks in BettingPros tracker: 7-3-1 (+3.64 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 4-1
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros tracker: 11-6-1 (+5.39 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 7-3
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