Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 4 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets
In this article each week I’ll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
All odds are from the following sportsbooks.
Click on the sportsbook links above to check out their promotional offers. If you’re not taking advantage of these deals, you’re basically admitting to yourself that you hate money.
Also check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 4 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 4 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team. (For the London game, the Saints are technically the home team.)
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Sept. 28, 9 am ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| CIN | MIA | -4 | -2.5 | 1.5 |
| NO | MIN | 2.5 | 2.25 | -0.25 |
| ATL | CLE | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 |
| DAL | WAS | -3.5 | -2.25 | 1.25 |
| BAL | BUF | 3 | 1.75 | -1.25 |
| HOU | LAC | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| NYG | CHI | -3.5 | -1.5 | 2 |
| DET | SEA | -4.5 | -5.5 | -1 |
| PHI | JAX | -6.5 | -7 | -0.5 |
| IND | TEN | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 |
| PIT | NYJ | -3.5 | -4 | -0.5 |
| CAR | ARI | -1.5 | 1.75 | 3.25 |
| LV | DEN | -2.5 | 0.25 | 2.75 |
| GB | NE | -10 | -10 | 0 |
| TB | KC | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| SF | LAR | -2.5 | 0.25 | 2.75 |
Based on my current projections, I’m willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.
- Bears +3.5 at Giants
- Cardinals +1.5 at Panthers
- Broncos +2.5 at Raiders
- Buccaneers +2 vs. Chiefs
- Rams +2.5 at 49ers
Freedman’s Week 4 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.
Chicago Bears at New York Giants
Check out our Bears at Giants matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium
- TV: FOX
Bears at Giants: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Giants -3.5
- Over/Under: 49.5
- Moneyline: Giants -170, Bears +145
Bears at Giants: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 28.
- Spread: Bears – 48% bets, 54% money
- Over/Under: Over – 21% bets, 55% money
- Moneyline: Bears – 48% bets, 74% money
Bears at Giants: Key Injuries
Bears: Week 4 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Matthew Adams | OLB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Dane Cruikshank | DB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Jaylon Johnson | CB | Quad | DNP |
| David Montgomery | RB | Ankle/Knee | DNP |
| Ryan Griffin | TE | Achilles | LP |
| Velus Jones Jr. | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Roquan Smith | ILB | Quad | LP |
Bears: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Byron Pringle | WR | IR | Calf |
| Doug Kramer | C | IR | Foot |
| N’Keal Harry | WR | IR | Ankle |
| Dakota Dozier | G | IR | Knee |
| Alex Leatherwood | OT | PUP | Illness |
Giants: Week 4 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Cordale Flott | CB | Calf | DNP |
| Nick McCloud | CB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Kadarius Toney | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Jihad Ward | OLB | Knee | DNP |
| Leonard Williams | DE | Knee | DNP |
| Justin Layne | CB | Concussion | LP |
| Aaron Robinson | CB | Appendix | LP |
Giants: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | IR | Knee |
| Elerson Smith | EDGE | IR | Leg |
| Rodarius Williams | DB | IR | Knee |
| Collin Johnson | WR | IR | Achilles |
| Darrian Beavers | LB | IR | Knee |
| Shane Lemieux | G | IR | Toe |
| Marcus McKethan | G | IR | Knee |
| Matt Peart | T | PUP | Knee |
| Nick Gates | T | PUP | Leg |
Bears at Giants: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Bears Trends
- QB Justin Fields: 4-9 ATS (33.5% ROI for faders) overall
- Road Underdogs: 382-327-16 ATS (5.3% ROI) in Weeks 1-4
Giants Trends
- QB Daniel Jones: 8-13 ATS (21.8% ROI for faders) at home
- QB Daniel Jones: 2-6 ATS (43.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
- QB Daniel Jones: 1-4 ATS (43.0% ROI for faders) as home favorite
- Home Favorites: 82-106-8 ATS (9.8% ROI for faders) off a loss as home favorites
Bears at Giants: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Bears Offense vs. Giants Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.032 | 17 | 0.054 | 19 | 2 |
| Total SR | 38.2% | 31 | 46.2% | 24 | -7 |
| Total DVOA | -15.3% | 28 | 16.6% | 28 | 0 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.134 | 28 | 0.037 | 17 | -11 |
| Dropback SR | 32.8% | 31 | 45.9% | 17 | -14 |
| Pass DVOA | -47.4% | 32 | 20.5% | 25 | -7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 18.1% | 32 | 3.5% | 30 | -2 |
| Rush EPA | 0.044 | 6 | 0.079 | 29 | 23 |
| Rush SR | 42.2% | 12 | 46.7% | 26 | 14 |
| Rush DVOA | 12.8% | 6 | 11.5% | 28 | 22 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.79 | 9 | 5.09 | 30 | 21 |
| Yards per Play | 5 | 24 | 5.9 | 24 | 0 |
| Points per Game | 17.3 | 20 | 19.7 | 12 | -8 |
Giants Offense vs. Bears Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.05 | 21 | -0.015 | 13 | -8 |
| Total SR | 40.6% | 26 | 45.9% | 22 | -4 |
| Total DVOA | -7.5% | 20 | -2.9% | 11 | -9 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.098 | 24 | 0 | 11 | -13 |
| Dropback SR | 40.5% | 26 | 43.6% | 12 | -14 |
| Pass DVOA | -8.3% | 25 | -6.9% | 10 | -15 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 13.3% | 31 | 6.6% | 14 | -17 |
| Rush EPA | 0.039 | 7 | -0.031 | 21 | 14 |
| Rush SR | 40.8% | 18 | 48.4% | 29 | 11 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.5% | 11 | 0.6% | 22 | 11 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.31 | 17 | 4.82 | 25 | 8 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 21 | 5.7 | 19 | -2 |
| Points per Game | 18.7 | 18 | 19 | 11 | -7 |
Bears at Giants: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 48 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Justin Fields
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | -0.05 | 31 |
| AY/A | 3.5 | 32 |
| QBR | 23 | 31 |
ATS Value vs. Average: -3.0 (No. 33)
Career: Justin Fields
- AY/A: 5.5
- QB Elo per Game: -118.2
2022: Daniel Jones
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.027 | 24 |
| AY/A | 5.8 | 27 |
| QBR | 34 | 27 |
ATS Value vs. Average: -1.1 (No. 28)
Career: Daniel Jones
- AY/A: 6.3
- QB Elo per Game: -35.8
Key Matchup: Bears Rush Offense vs. Giants Rush Defense
No. 1 RB David Montgomery (ankle, knee) didn’t practice on Wednesday, but he’s theoretically day to day …
… so there’s a chance he’ll play in Week 4. And even if he doesn’t I don’t think that will matter given how well No. 2 RB Khalil Herbert has played in Montgomery’s stead. He went off with 20-157-2 rushing last week as an in-game fill-in, and last year he had 78-344-1 rushing in four games while subbing in for Montgomery.
And QB Justin Fields is always a rushing threat with his 27 carries this year.
The Bears are top-12 in all the key rushing efficiency metrics, and the Giants defense is outside the top 20 and might be without DL Leonard Williams (knee) and EDGE Jihad Ward (knee).
I think the Bears will control the ball with their running attack to keep this game close.
Best Line: Bears +3.5 (-109, Bet Rivers)
First Recommended: Bears +3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Bears +1.5
Limit: Bears +3
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Check out our Cardinals at Panthers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2022, 4 pm ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium
- TV: FOX
Cardinals at Panthers: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Panthers -1.5
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Moneyline: Panthers -125, Cardinals +105
Cardinals at Panthers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 28.
- Spread: Cardinals – 76% bets, 78% money
- Over/Under: Under – 63% bets, 80% money
- Moneyline: Panthers – 10% bets, 25% money
Cardinals at Panthers: Key Injuries
Cardinals: Week 4 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Kelvin Beachum | OT | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Marquise Brown | WR | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Zach Ertz | TE | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Rodney Hudson | C | Knee | DNP |
| Rashard Lawrence | NT | Hand | DNP |
| Justin Pugh | G | Elbow | DNP |
| Zeke Turner | LB | Ankle | DNP |
| J.J. Watt | DE | Calf | DNP |
| A.J. Green | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Zaven Collins | ILB | Shoulder | LP |
| James Conner | RB | Knee | LP |
| Greg Dortch | WR | Back | LP |
| Rondale Moore | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Matt Prater | K | Right Hip | LP |
Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Tae Daley | DB | IR | Head |
| Joshua Miles | OT | IR | Undisclosed |
| Cody Ford | OL | IR | Ankle |
| Colt McCoy | QB | IR | Calf |
| Antoine Wesley | WR | IR | Groin |
| Charles Washington | DB | IR | Chest |
| Marquis Hayes | G | IR | Knee |
| Antonio Hamilton | DB | PUP | Foot |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | Suspended | Disciplinary |
Panthers: Week 4 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | Thigh | DNP |
| Jaycee Horn | CB | Calf | LP |
| Ian Thomas | TE | Ankle | LP |
| Stantley Thomas-Oliver | CB | Achilles | LP |
| Xavier Woods | S | Hamstring | LP |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | WR | Hamstring | LP |
Panthers: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Bravvion Roy | DL | IR | Hamstring |
| Andre Roberts | WR | IR | Knee |
| Julian Stanford | LB | IR | Undisclosed |
| Zane Gonzalez | K | IR | Groin |
| Sam Darnold | QB | IR | Ankle |
| Matt Corral | QB | IR | Foot |
Cardinals at Panthers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Cardinals Trends
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 18-6-2 ATS (42.4% ROI) on road
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 19-9-2 ATS (30.0% ROI) as underdog
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 14-3-2 ATS (53.4% ROI) as road underdog
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 12-7 ML (79.3% ROI) as road underdog
Panthers Trends
- HC Matt Rhule: 5-13 ATS (40.6% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Matt Rhule: 3-10 ATS (48.5% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Matt Rhule: 1-7 ATS (70.0% ROI for faders) as home favorite
- HC Matt Rhule: 1-7 ML (99.8% ROI for faders) as home favorite
Cardinals at Panthers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Cardinals Offense vs. Panthers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.004 | 11 | -0.047 | 10 | -1 |
| Total SR | 43.2% | 18 | 40.4% | 7 | -11 |
| Total DVOA | -8.9% | 21 | -0.9% | 14 | -7 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.023 | 20 | 0.021 | 13 | -7 |
| Dropback SR | 40.6% | 25 | 40.6% | 8 | -17 |
| Pass DVOA | -5.1% | 24 | 6.3% | 17 | -7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.1% | 9 | 4.4% | 27 | 18 |
| Rush EPA | 0.073 | 4 | -0.154 | 10 | 6 |
| Rush SR | 50.0% | 2 | 40.0% | 15 | 13 |
| Rush DVOA | -5.8% | 16 | -10.3% | 13 | -3 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.33 | 15 | 4.19 | 13 | -2 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 26 | 5 | 10 | -16 |
| Points per Game | 20.7 | 13 | 19.7 | 12 | -1 |
Panthers Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.05 | 21 | 0.191 | 31 | 10 |
| Total SR | 37.9% | 32 | 51.4% | 31 | -1 |
| Total DVOA | -12.8% | 25 | 22.0% | 31 | 6 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.135 | 30 | 0.366 | 31 | 1 |
| Dropback SR | 32.0% | 32 | 57.4% | 32 | 0 |
| Pass DVOA | -22.9% | 30 | 39.4% | 30 | 0 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 10.1% | 28 | 2.3% | 32 | 4 |
| Rush EPA | 0.082 | 2 | -0.105 | 15 | 13 |
| Rush SR | 47.0% | 3 | 41.2% | 18 | 15 |
| Rush DVOA | 7.3% | 9 | -10.0% | 14 | 5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.98 | 6 | 4.60 | 18 | 12 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 21 | 6.7 | 32 | 11 |
| Points per Game | 20.7 | 13 | 29 | 31 | 18 |
Cardinals at Panthers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 48 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Baker Mayfield
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | -0.057 | 32 |
| AY/A | 7 | 14 |
| QBR | 18.8 | 32 |
ATS Value vs. Average: -2.4 (No. 32)
Career: Baker Mayfield
- AY/A: 7.0
- QB Elo per Game: -38.5
2022: Kyler Murray
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.019 | 26 |
| AY/A | 5.7 | 28 |
| QBR | 49.5 | 14 |
ATS Value vs. Average: 1.8 (No. 8)
Career: Kyler Murray
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 65.0
Key Matchup: QB Kyler Murray vs. Panthers Pass Defense
Both teams have similar advantages in the running game. The Cardinals offense is No. 2 in rush SR, and the Panthers defense is No. 15 in rush SR. The Panthers offense is No. 2 in rush EPA, and the Cardinals defense is No. 15 in rush EPA.
I think both teams will want to lean on the ground game.
But when the Cardinals choose to pass, QB Kyler Murray will have a massive edge relative to Panthers QB Baker Mayfield and a direct edge against the Panthers defense and secondary (per our FantasyPros unit power rankings).
| Rank | Quarterback | Offense | Opp Defense | Defense Rank | Secondary Rank | QB-Def Edge | QB-Sec Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kyler Murray | ARI | CAR | 19 | 12 | 10 | 3 |
And as bad as we might think the Cardinals offensive line is, it’s no worse than the Panthers defensive line, so I don’t expect Murray to be under a great amount of pressure.
| Rank | Offensive Line | Opp DL | DL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | ARI | CAR | 24 | 0 |
Per usual, Murray will be the difference in this game.
In the offseason market, this line was Cardinals -2. This line has moved too far in not even a month of action.
Best Line: Cardinals +2 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Cardinals +1.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Cardinals -1.75
Limit: Pick’Em
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Check out our Broncos at Raiders matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
- Location: Allegiant Stadium
- TV: CBS
Broncos at Raiders: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Raiders -2.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Raiders -140, Broncos +120
Broncos at Raiders: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 28.
- Spread: Raiders – 68% bets, 85% money
- Over/Under: Under – 84% bets, 96% money
- Moneyline: Raiders – 62% bets, 72% money
Broncos at Raiders: Key Injuries
Broncos: Week 4 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Tyrie Cleveland | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Jonathon Cooper | LB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Randy Gregory | OLB | Knee | DNP |
| D.J. Jones | NT | Concussion | DNP |
| Darius Phillips | CB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Dalton Risner | G | Ankle | DNP |
| Billy Turner | OT | Knee | DNP |
| Baron Browning | LB | Knee | LP |
| Melvin Gordon | RB | Neck | LP |
| P.J. Locke | DB | Ankle | LP |
| Quinn Meinerz | G | Hamstring | LP |
| Aaron Patrick | LB | Shoulder | LP |
| Mike Purcell | NT | Neck | LP |
| Caden Sterns | SAF | Hip | LP |
| K’Waun Williams | DB | Wrist | LP |
Broncos: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Justin Simmons | DB | IR | Quadriceps |
| Michael Ojemudia | DB | IR | Elbow |
| Christopher Allen | EDGE | IR | Foor |
| Greg Dulcich | TE | IR | Hamstring |
| Damarea Crockett | RB | IR | Knee |
| Tim Patrick | WR | IR | Knee |
| Tom Compton | T | PUP | Back |
Raiders: Week 4 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Neil Farrell | DE | Shoulder | FP |
| Andre James | C | Concussion | FP |
| Nate Hobbs | CB | Concussion | DNP |
| Hunter Renfrow | WR | Concussion | DNP |
| Foster Moreau | TE | Knee | DNP |
| Tre’von Moehrig | FS | Hip | LP |
| Rock Ya-Sin | CB | Knee | LP |
| Kolton Miller | OT | Ankle | LP |
| Denzel Perryman | MLB | Ankle | LP |
| Bilal Nichols | DT | Shoulder | LP |
Raiders: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| DJ Turner | WR | IR | Ankle |
| Anthony Averett | DB | IR | Thumb |
| Jordan Jenkins | EDGE | IR | Knee |
| Brandon Parker | T | IR | Triceps |
| Micah Kiser | LB | IR | Leg |
| Sincere McCormick | RB | IR | Undisclosed |
Broncos at Raiders: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Broncos Trends
- QB Russell Wilson: 83-71-7 ATS (5.1% ROI) overall
- QB Russell Wilson: 27-13-2 ATS (30.3% ROI) as underdog
- QB Russell Wilson: 22-19-1 ML (34.2% ROI) as underdog
- Divisional Road Underdogs: 130-95-8 ATS (12.6% ROI) in Weeks 1-4
Raiders Trends
- QB Derek Carr: 13-25-1 ATS (26.9% ROI for faders) as favorite
Broncos at Raiders: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Broncos Offense vs. Raiders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.009 | 13 | 0.087 | 25 | 12 |
| Total SR | 40.1% | 29 | 48.3% | 28 | -1 |
| Total DVOA | -11.1% | 22 | 6.6% | 20 | -2 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.115 | 9 | 0.227 | 29 | 20 |
| Dropback SR | 40.5% | 26 | 50.8% | 27 | 1 |
| Pass DVOA | 10.5% | 14 | 17.0% | 23 | 9 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.0% | 24 | 3.2% | 31 | 7 |
| Rush EPA | -0.222 | 27 | -0.133 | 13 | -14 |
| Rush SR | 39.5% | 22 | 44.3% | 24 | 2 |
| Rush DVOA | -18.3% | 21 | -6.5% | 15 | -6 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.77 | 10 | 4.14 | 9 | -1 |
| Yards per Play | 5.2 | 20 | 5.7 | 19 | -1 |
| Points per Game | 14.3 | 31 | 25.7 | 24 | -7 |
Raiders Offense vs. Broncos Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.008 | 10 | -0.142 | 6 | -4 |
| Total SR | 43.8% | 17 | 40.2% | 6 | -11 |
| Total DVOA | -12.5% | 24 | -24.3% | 5 | -19 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.048 | 14 | -0.133 | 6 | -8 |
| Dropback SR | 45.3% | 18 | 39.5% | 3 | -15 |
| Pass DVOA | 3.0% | 20 | -25.9% | 4 | -16 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.4% | 17 | 8.8% | 8 | -9 |
| Rush EPA | -0.098 | 20 | -0.161 | 8 | -12 |
| Rush SR | 39.6% | 21 | 41.8% | 19 | -2 |
| Rush DVOA | -21.5% | 23 | -21.6% | 8 | -15 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.08 | 3 | 4.52 | 15 | 12 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 10 | 4.7 | 6 | -4 |
| Points per Game | 21.3 | 10 | 12 | 2 | -8 |
Broncos at Raiders: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 48 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Russell Wilson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.076 | 16 |
| AY/A | 7 | 14 |
| QBR | 45.2 | 21 |
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.2 (No. 19)
Career: Russell Wilson
- AY/A: 8.2
- QB Elo per Game: 37.4
2022: Derek Carr
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.085 | 14 |
| AY/A | 6.6 | 20 |
| QBR | 48.8 | 16 |
ATS Value vs. Average: 0.0 (No. 17)
Career: Derek Carr
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 14.4
Key Matchup: QB Russell Wilson vs. Raiders Pass Defense
The Raiders have no offensive edge in this game, but the Broncos have a big one: QB Russell Wilson.
It’s not that Wilson has been great this year, but the Raiders have been subpar in pass defense, ranking bottom-six in both dropback EPA and SR. Even with the strong EDGE duo of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, they’ve managed a league-low two sacks as a unit.
They let QB Justin Herbert walk all over them in Week 1 (279 yards, three touchdowns, 76.5% completion rate, 10.0 AY/A).
They let QB Kyler Murray come back from a 20-0 halftime deficit while getting minimal offensive support in Week 2.
And they let QB Ryan Tannehill save his job and maybe the Titans’ season in Week 3 (264 yards, one touchdown, 70.4% completion rate, 8.9 AY/A).
And they’re injured. They’re already without No. 2 CB Anthony Averett (thumb, IR), and they might be without No. 3 CB Nate Hobbs (concussion). Even No. 1 CB Rock Ya-Sin (knee) is on the injury report.
And S Tre’von Moehrig (hip) and LB Denzel Perryman (ankle) have both missed the past two games and are uncertain to return this week.
The Raiders defense is exploitable, and I expect Wilson to have his Broncos breakout against it.
This line was a pick’em in the offseason. Maybe the Broncos aren’t as good as the market anticipated they would be months ago — but that’s definitely true for the Raiders too.
Best Line: Broncos +2.5 (+100, Caesars)
First Recommended: Broncos +2 (-109)
Personal Projection: Broncos -0.25
Limit: Broncos +1.5
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Check out our Chiefs at Buccaneers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2022, 8:20 pm ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium
- TV: NBC
Note: This game might be played in Minneapolis due to Hurricane Ian. Different sportsbooks have different policies when it comes to change in venue. Please be advised.
Chiefs at Buccaneers: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Chiefs -2
- Over/Under: 45
- Moneyline: Chiefs -130, Buccaneers +110
Chiefs at Buccaneers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 28.
- Spread: Chiefs – 70% bets, 88% money
- Over/Under: Under – 64% bets, 89% money
- Moneyline: Chiefs – 84% bets, 88% money
Chiefs at Buccaneers: Key Injuries
Chiefs: Week 4 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | Shoulder | FP |
| Andrew Wylie | OT | Hip | FP |
| Michael Danna | DE | Calf | DNP |
| Mecole Hardman | WR | Heel | DNP |
| Chris Jones | DT | Not Injury Related | DNP |
| Ronald Jones | RB | lllness | DNP |
| Harrison Butker | K | Left Ankle | LP |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | Abdomen | LP |
Chiefs: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Trent McDuffie | DB | IR | Hamstring |
| Blake Bell | TE | IR | Hip |
| Justyn Ross | WR | IR | Foot |
| Lucas Niang | T | PUP | Knee |
| Willie Gay | LB | Suspended | Disciplinary |
Buccaneers: Week 4 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Tom Brady | QB | Right finger | FP |
| Akiem Hicks | DE | Foot | DNP |
| Breshad Perriman | WR | Knee/hamstring | DNP |
| Russell Gage | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Chris Godwin | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Logan Hall | DE | Groin | LP |
| Julio Jones | WR | Knee | LP |
| Donovan Smith | OT | Elbow | LP |
Buccaneers: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Josh Wells | OT | IR | Calf |
| Giovani Bernard | RB | IR | Ankle |
| Cam Gill | EDGE | IR | Foot |
| Aaron Stinnie | G | IR | Knee |
| Kenjon Barner | RB | IR | Groin |
| Ryan Jensen | C | IR | Knee |
Chiefs at Buccaneers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Chiefs Trends
- HC Andy Reid: 24-15 ATS (21.3% ROI) in Weeks 1-4 (with Chiefs)
- HC Andy Reid: 45-27-1 ATS (22.4% ROI) on road (with Chiefs)
Buccaneers Trends
- QB Tom Brady: 23-9-2 ATS (38.4% ROI) as underdog
- QB Tom Brady: 20-14 ML (45.0% ROI) as underdog
- QB Tom Brady: 43-16 ATS (43.9% ROI) off a loss
- QB Tom Brady: 48-11 ML (29.6% ROI) off a loss
- QB Tom Brady: 10-0 ATS (96.0% ROI) as underdog off a loss
- QB Tom Brady: 8-2 ML (102.1% ROI) as underdog off a loss
Chiefs at Buccaneers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Chiefs Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.202 | 2 | -0.275 | 1 | -1 |
| Total SR | 48.9% | 4 | 40.1% | 5 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | 13.5% | 10 | -34.3% | 1 | -9 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.337 | 2 | -0.293 | 1 | -1 |
| Dropback SR | 55.9% | 3 | 39.7% | 5 | 2 |
| Pass DVOA | 41.2% | 7 | -43.1% | 1 | -6 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 2.3% | 1 | 9.4% | 6 | 5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.080 | 15 | -0.235 | 5 | -10 |
| Rush SR | 34.4% | 28 | 41.0% | 17 | -11 |
| Rush DVOA | -31.2% | 29 | -17.4% | 10 | -19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.04 | 23 | 4.53 | 16 | -7 |
| Yards per Play | 6.2 | 4 | 4.5 | 3 | -1 |
| Points per Game | 29.3 | 4 | 9 | 1 | -3 |
Buccaneers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.129 | 30 | -0.042 | 11 | -19 |
| Total SR | 41.0% | 25 | 44.7% | 18 | -7 |
| Total DVOA | -14.8% | 27 | -10.0% | 9 | -18 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.002 | 17 | -0.02 | 10 | -7 |
| Dropback SR | 43.5% | 19 | 45.0% | 15 | -4 |
| Pass DVOA | 4.0% | 18 | 0.6% | 14 | -4 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.6% | 11 | 8.1% | 10 | -1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.335 | 32 | -0.088 | 16 | -16 |
| Rush SR | 37.0% | 25 | 43.9% | 20 | -5 |
| Rush DVOA | -25.1% | 26 | -28.4% | 6 | -20 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.22 | 19 | 3.98 | 6 | -13 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 26 | 4.6 | 5 | -21 |
| Points per Game | 17 | 22 | 21.7 | 17 | -5 |
Chiefs at Buccaneers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 48 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Patrick Mahomes
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.209 | 1 |
| AY/A | 8.9 | 4 |
| QBR | 76.2 | 4 |
ATS Value vs. Average: 4.7 (No. 2)
Career: Patrick Mahomes
- AY/A: 8.7
- QB Elo per Game: 117.6
2022: Tom Brady
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.048 | 20 |
| AY/A | 6.7 | 18 |
| QBR | 47.5 | 17 |
ATS Value vs. Average: 2.6 (No. 6)
Career: Tom Brady
- AY/A: 7.8
- QB Elo per Game: 72.6
Key Matchup: Buccaneers Secondary vs. Chiefs Pass Catchers
TE Travis Kelce (17-230-2 receiving, 24 targets) is still one of the best players in the league, but the new trio of WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore has been unable to replicate or replace the lost production of WRs Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson.
And against the Buccaneers secondary (No. 1 in our unit power rankings) they are at a clear disadvantage.
| Rank | WRs & TEs | Opp Secondary | Secondary Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | KC | TB | 1 | -12 |
With WRs Mike Evans (suspension) and Julio Jones (knee) slated to return this week, the Buccaneers offense should be able to do just enough to make the heroic efforts of their secondary against QB Patrick Mahomes and his pass catchers not in vain.
This line was Buccaneers -2.5 in the offseason. They’ve struggled in Weeks 1-3 — but so have the Chiefs. This line has moved too far.
Best Line: Buccaneers +2.5 (-109, Sugar House)
First Recommended: Buccaneers +3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Pick’Em
Limit: Buccaneers +1.5
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Check out our 49ers at Rams matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 3, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: Levi’s Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Rams at 49ers: Consensus Lines
- Spread: 49ers -2.5
- Over/Under: 42
- Moneyline: 49ers -135, Rams +110
Rams at 49ers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 28.
- Spread: 49ers – 35% bets, 70% money
- Over/Under: Under – 74% bets, 99% money
- Moneyline: 49ers – 20% bets, 75% money
Rams at 49ers: Key Injuries
Rams: Week 4 Injury Report
Not available at time of writing.
Rams: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Tremayne Anchrum | G | IR | Leg |
| Troy Hill | DB | IR | Groin |
| Kyren Williams | RB | IR | Ankle |
| Daniel Hardy | LB | IR | Ankle |
| Logan Bruss | G | IR | Knee |
| Van Jefferson | WR | IR | Knee |
| Quentin Lake | S | PUP | Knee |
| Travin Howard | LB | PUP | Groin |
| Brycen Hopkins | TE | Suspended | Disciplinary |
| Bobby Brown | DL | Suspended | Disciplinary |
49ers: Week 4 Injury Report
Not available at time of writing.
49ers: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Trey Lance | QB | IR | Leg |
| Jordan Willis | EDGE | IR | Knee |
| Elijah Mitchell | RB | IR | Knee |
| Curtis Robinson | LB | IR | Groin |
| Jimmie Ward | DB | IR | Hamstring |
| Jordan Matthews | TE | IR | Knee |
| Maurice Hurst | DL | IR | Biceps |
| Kalia Davis | DL | PUP | Knee |
| Jason Verrett | DB | PUP | Knee |
Rams at 49ers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Rams Trends
- HC Sean McVay: 15-10-1 ATS (15.7% ROI) in primetime (including postseason)
- HC Sean McVay: 24-18 ATS (12.2% ROI) on road
- HC Sean McVay: 9-7 ATS (10.3% ROI) as underdog
- HC Sean McVay: 8-3 ATS (43.0% ROI) as road underdog
- HC Sean McVay: 18-12-1 ATS (16.6% ROI) in division
49ers Trends
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 8-3 ATS (38.8% ROI) vs. McVay (including postseason)
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 15-22-1 ATS (14.9% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 17-26-1 ATS (21.6% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 7-15-1 ATS (29.7% ROI for faders) as home favorite
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 11-12 ML (50.6% ROI for faders) as home favorite
Rams at 49ers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Rams Offense vs. 49ers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.048 | 19 | -0.166 | 4 | -15 |
| Total SR | 48.3% | 6 | 34.5% | 1 | -5 |
| Total DVOA | -6.1% | 18 | -28.5% | 3 | -15 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.027 | 21 | -0.169 | 5 | -16 |
| Dropback SR | 52.6% | 5 | 35.3% | 1 | -4 |
| Pass DVOA | 5.2% | 16 | -24.7% | 5 | -11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.5% | 25 | 10.2% | 3 | -22 |
| Rush EPA | -0.086 | 19 | -0.161 | 8 | -11 |
| Rush SR | 40.3% | 20 | 33.3% | 4 | -16 |
| Rush DVOA | -3.2% | 14 | -32.6% | 3 | -11 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.15 | 22 | 3.36 | 5 | -17 |
| Yards per Play | 5.3 | 18 | 3.9 | 1 | -17 |
| Points per Game | 20.3 | 15 | 12.3 | 3 | -12 |
49ers Offense vs. Rams Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.094 | 27 | -0.008 | 14 | -13 |
| Total SR | 41.3% | 24 | 44.0% | 14 | -10 |
| Total DVOA | -12.0% | 23 | -0.3% | 16 | -7 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.108 | 25 | 0.128 | 23 | -2 |
| Dropback SR | 41.0% | 24 | 47.4% | 19 | -5 |
| Pass DVOA | 3.9% | 19 | 16.4% | 22 | 3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.0% | 23 | 6.1% | 21 | -2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.080 | 15 | -0.290 | 1 | -14 |
| Rush SR | 41.6% | 14 | 36.9% | 8 | -6 |
| Rush DVOA | -16.2% | 20 | -30.6% | 4 | -16 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.20 | 21 | 4.17 | 10 | -11 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 21 | 5.3 | 14 | -7 |
| Points per Game | 15.7 | 28 | 23.3 | 20 | -8 |
Rams at 49ers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 48 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Matthew Stafford
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.086 | 13 |
| AY/A | 6 | 24 |
| QBR | 51.1 | 13 |
ATS Value vs. Average: 1.1 (No. 12)
Career: Matthew Stafford
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: 22.2
2022: Jimmy Garoppolo
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.036 | 23 |
| AY/A | 7.2 | 9 |
| QBR | 28.9 | 29 |
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.8 (No. 24)
Career: Jimmy Garoppolo
- AY/A: 8.1
- QB Elo per Game: -9.1
Key Matchup: Rams Defensive Line vs. 49ers Offensive Line
The 49ers offensive line is in a bad spot. LT Trent Williams (ankle) is almost certainly out after exiting Week 3 with a sprain. And C Daniel Brunskill (hamstring) is yet to play this year — and he didn’t even practice last week. He doesn’t seem likely to suit up.
So the 49ers are missing their two most important offensive linemen — and they’re now facing All-Pro DT Aaron Donald.
The 49ers offense is built around their running game. They’re No. 3 in teh league with a 53.4% rush rate. But the Rams defense is No. 1 in rush EPA (-0.290).
So the 49ers could struggle to run — and they also might struggle to pass protect without Williams and Brunskill. Given how good he is as a blocker, it’s probable that the 49ers will even use TE George Kittle more in pass protection to compensate for their weakness on the edge without Williams, which is a good idea in theory — but it means that Kittle will be running fewer routes, which is bad overall.
We see the Rams as having a significant edge over the 49ers in this trench matchup (per our FantasyPros unit power rankings).
| Rank | Defensive Line | Opp OL | OL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LAR | SF | 18 | 16 |
If the 49ers can’t run, and if they struggle to protect QB Jimmy Garoppolo, they will have very little going for them on offense — and we saw what that looked like in Week 3, when they scored just 10 points against the Broncos on Sunday Night Football.
This line was Rams -0.5 in the offseason, and I still think they should be favored.
Best Line: Rams +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Rams +2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Rams -0.25
Limit: Rams +1.5
Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
The five spreads I’ve highlighted above are the ones that right (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.
- Bears +3.5 at Giants
- Cardinals +2.5 at Panthers
- Broncos +2.5 at Raiders
- Buccaneers +1.5 vs. Chiefs
- Rams +2.5 at 49ers
Also in consideration are:
- Dolphins +4.5 at Bengals
- Lions -4.5 vs. Seahawks
- Titans +3.5 at Colts
- Ravens +3.5 vs. Bills
- Packers -9.5 vs. Patriots
Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.
UPDATE (Sun. 10/2): Here’s the tweet.
Week 3 Record
- Picks in BettingPros tracker: 7-6 (+0.47 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 4-1
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros tracker: 19-12-1 (+5.86 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 11-4
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