MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (8/18)
Another exciting weekend in Major League Baseball is set to begin, with five of the 16 matchups between teams with winning records. As such, the playoff picture will look much different on Monday than it does today as we enter the final stretch of August.
Today's Best MLB Bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians (Game 2)
Note: Full odds for Game 2 of the doubleheader have not yet been released. Be sure to check out the updated MLB betting lines later today.
The Cleveland Guardians have overcome a multitude of pitching injuries this year to rank third in MLB in ERA. Still, their horrendous offensive numbers are preventing them from being serious contenders in the AL Central race.
Cleveland has hit an MLB-low 26 home runs and has the fifth-worst slugging percentage among all AL teams against right-handed pitchers at home this season. In addition, Cleveland has gotten just 14 total home runs from its outfielders combined, less than half the next lowest team.
Detroit Tigers righty Matt Manning has pitched much better on the road than at home this year, with a 3.89 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in seven road starts compared to a 6.05 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in four home starts. And while Manning’s 0.55 GO/AO ratio on the road is lower than his 0.79 rate at home, that should not trouble Manning, given Cleveland’s lack of power.
Detroit has won three of Manning’s last four road starts while holding the opposition to an average of fewer than three runs per game in the previous three. And while Manning ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in hard-hit contact allowed (23rd percentile), he should have success against a Guardians team with the second-worst hard-hit contact rate in home games against righties.
The Under has cashed in 10 of Detroit’s last 16 road games (+4.55 units, 26% ROI), and we expect it to do its part in keeping the scoring down in the second game of tonight’s doubleheader.
Pick: Guardians Team Total Under (Game 2)
Milwaukee Brewers (+100) vs. Texas Rangers (-118) | O/U 8 (-122/+100)
The Milwaukee Brewers are in their much worse hitting split in this series opener, as they are just 16-20 against left-handed starting pitchers compared to 49-36 vs. righties, making them the only first-place team under .500 in any split.
Given Milwaukee’s struggles against southpaws, it is surprising to see such relatively low moneyline odds on this interleague tilt, especially since the Texas Rangers have scored the most runs and have the best run differential of any AL team. The likeliest reason for those odds is the concern around southpaw Andrew Heaney, who left his last start after recording just four outs. However, manager Bruce Bochy revealed that Heaney had been battling an illness and had not thrown his usual bullpen session earlier that week, leading to his ineffectiveness. We still believe in what should be a healthy Heaney in this start, as he entered his last outing with a 15 2/3 inning scoreless streak.
Milwaukee counters with righty Brandon Woodruff, who has pitched to a 1.99 ERA in four starts this season (he has made just two starts since August 6). However, Woodruff is facing his stiffest challenge of the season, as he has opposed more bottom-seven offenses (two) than top-ten offenses (one) this year. The Brewers are still licking their wounds after a three-game road sweep in Los Angeles in which the Dodgers out-scored them 14-3, and should be vulnerable in this opener against a Rangers team coming off a day’s rest (Texas is 9-6 following an off day).
Pick: Rangers Moneyline (-118)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+154) vs. San Diego Padres (-184) | O/U 8.5 (-128/+104)
Arizona Diamondbacks righty Brandon Pfaadt was ranked 26th in Baseball America’s top 100 prospects entering the season. But considering the youngster is still looking for his first win in his 12th start (0-6, 6.91 ERA through 11 starts), he has a long way to go to deserve that preseason hype.
Pfaadt is coming off season-highs in number of pitches (92) and strikeouts (eight) in his last start against the San Diego Padres, and his top two strikeout totals have been among his three August starts. But Pfaadt still allows alarming numbers with his fastball, a pitch he throws 46.5% of the time, as his OBA and slugging are .353 and .696, respectively. And despite Pfaadt’s lofty strikeout total against the Padres, he still generated just eight swings and misses (four whiffs on 19 swings against his fastball), and we should not see a similar 31% CSW% in this start as the Padres will likely take a more aggressive approach.
Pfaadt is opposed by Padres righty Seth Lugo, who is making a fourth consecutive start against a division rival. His last appearance was also against Arizona, so seeing him twice in five days should tilt the advantage toward the hitters. And while Lugo has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his previous eight starts, he still ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in xSLG and xBA, and his 4.35 xERA compared to his actual 4.16 ERA suggests regression is looming.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-128)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.