Navigate

MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (8/4)

by |

Several key series in Major League Baseball this weekend will go a long way in shaping the playoff picture, particularly in the National League. Recent upstart teams like the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres get an excellent litmus test against the top two teams in the NL when facing the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers, respectively. And in the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox each continue to jockey for position in the AL East, with Toronto looking for their first win of the season (0-7 entering this weekend) against Boston. Do any of these games catch our eye from a betting perspective?

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Houston Astros (-142) vs. New York Yankees (+120) | O/U 9 (-120/-102)

New York Yankees righty Luis Severino had a July to forget, pitching to an 11.22 ERA over five starts, which is the third-highest ERA in a calendar month by a Yankees pitcher (min. 20 IP), per Katie Sharp. Sharp added that Severino’s two outings where he allowed 9+ runs in July have not been replicated by a New York Yankees pitcher in any calendar month since 1934.

While four of Severino’s five July starts came against top-12 scoring offense, things will not get any easier when facing a Houston Astros offense that is arguably the healthiest it has been all season. Since Yordan Alvarez returned from injury on July 26, the team ranks second in the AL in wRC+, slugging, and walk percentage. The offense should provide plenty of run support for Hunter Brown, whose 10.2 K/9 rate is the best among all Astros starters. 

Houston, at times, has had trouble scoring runs for Brown, but when it has provided him with run support, Brown has capitalized. The Astros are 10-3 in games where they score 3+ runs for Brown, while opponents have averaged 8.6 runs per game in Severino’s previous five starts. If Houston wins, we expect it to come as part of a slugfest, so we are parlaying its moneyline with the Over for added value.    

Pick: Astros Moneyline/Over 9 Parlay (+157)

Pittsburgh Pirates (+146) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-174) | O/U 9 (-115/-105)

The Pittsburgh Pirates were +110 underdogs with ace Mitch Keller on the mound yesterday. They are relatively short +146 underdogs today, even though their starting pitcher, rookie Quinn Priester, has allowed 16 earned runs through 15 2/3 innings thus far. Much of the betting odds have to do with the Milwaukee Brewers trotting out arguably their worst starting pitcher, Colin Rea, who has a team-worst 0.2 WAR among starting pitchers. However, this is a fishy line, and one suggesting that oddsmakers do not think a Brewers team that has lost six of eight (with no consecutive wins since July 20) will snap out of their funk tonight. 

For Priester to have the most successful outing of his young career tonight, he should focus on utilizing his breaking pitches more, especially after Stuff+ gave his slider and curveball respectable 123 and 108 ratings in his debut. 

Pittsburgh needs to do better not to put itself in early holes, as it has trailed after three innings in each of its last seven divisional games. Milwaukee has won just one of its previous five series against teams not named the Cincinnati Reds, so we want to see more consistency from them before we back them, especially with Rea on the mound and having lost four of his previous nine starts.    

Pick: Pirates Moneyline (+146)

Seattle Mariners (-122) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+104) | O/U 8 (-120/-102)

When baseball fans think of the Los Angeles Angels pitching staff, most of their immediate attention goes to Shohei Ohtani, and with good reason. But with how Ohtani continues to amaze on a daily basis, southpaw Reid Detmers has gone much more under the radar this season.

Since May 19, Detmers has been one of the AL’s most dominant pitchers, as his 11.67 K/9 (30.9% K%) ranks fourth among AL starters (min. 60 IP). Additionally, out of the 11 pitchers with a K/9 rate of more than 11.00 in that span, Detmers is one of five with a BABIP of .290 or lower, suggesting opponents are not finding many holes even when they put the ball in play. Detmers has not induced a high ground-ball rate in that span (31.5%) but has limited the damage with an 11.8% HR/FB rate, which is a big reason for his respectable 3.56 FIP (tied for 21st in that span).

The Seattle Mariners rank 21st in wRC+, 22nd in slugging, and 27th in ISO in road games against left-handed pitchers. Thus, Detmers’ huge strikeout potential limits Seattle’s second-ranked .352 BABIP in that split. Conversely, Mariners righty Luis Castillo has offset a hard-hit percentage and barrel rate that rank in the 25th percentile or worse by pitching to a 2.88 ERA. We expect him to continue working his way out of trouble when facing an Angels squad that went 4-for-29 (.138) with runners in scoring position in their last series against the Braves.

The Under is 22-14 in L.A.’s last 35 home games (+6.95 units, 18% ROI), and we expect another pitcher’s duel here.

Pick: Under 8 Runs (-102)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App