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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/8)

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This is one of four remaining weekends in the Major League Baseball season, and several intriguing division and wild card races should keep bettors and fans glued throughout as the sport starts to compete with college football and the NFL.

With several games with moneyline odds either too steep or too close to our projections, we are targeting three totals for our best bets today.

      Today's Best MLB Bets

      (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

      Seattle Mariners (-112) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-104) | O/U 7.5 (-114/-106) 

      This matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays is the only one on the day’s slate between two teams with 78-plus wins, and oddsmakers project a pitcher’s duel, as it is tied for the lowest projected total of any game today. This seems like a fishy line, given how each team’s starting pitcher has struggled recently, but we are taking the bait and expecting a high-scoring affair.

      Mariners right George Kirby started August on fire by holding the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles to a combined one run in 16 innings. However, this is his fourth consecutive road start, and his last three have produced subpar numbers despite facing poor offenses. Over his previous three starts, Kirby has pitched to a 6.34 ERA despite facing three offenses that rank in the bottom 11 of the league in runs scored. At one point in mid-August, Kirby led MLB in WHIP, and while he still ranks fourth, his drop in velocity on his two primary pitches (fastball and slider) in his last start, which he throws a combined 59.2% of the time, is a concern. Tampa Bay ranks eighth in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at home since August 1, and Kirby’s xBA ranks in the league’s bottom quarter.  

      Kirby is opposed by Rays righty Taj Bradley, who has not earned a win in seven consecutive starts while pitching to a 7.92 ERA in that span. Just one of those starts has come since the end of July, as Bradley returned from a month-long absence to throw five innings of two-run ball against the Cleveland Guardians. The Mariners must get to Bradley early, as Tampa Bay’s bullpen has the lowest xFIP since August 1. But its relievers are beatable, allowing an OBA that ranks outside the top ten in that span.

      Pick: Over 7.5 (-114)

      San Diego Padres (+116) vs. Houston Astros (-136) | O/U 8.5 (-118/-114)

      Since a 9-2 win on August 26 against the Detroit Tigers, the Houston Astros offense has been on fire. They have averaged an MLB-best 8.9 runs per game in that span while leading the majors by a wide margin in nearly every statistical offensive category, including OPS (1.037), BABIP (.349), wRC+ (183), and wOBA (.436). However, the most impressive number in that stretch is an MLB-low 12.7% strikeout rate, and they are one of 10 teams that have struck out less than 20% of the time.

      Padres southpaw Blake Snell enters the day as the odds-on favorite (-200 at FanDuel) to win the NL Cy Young Award, in large part because he ranks third in K/9 rate (11.67) and leads the majors in ERA (2.50) and hits per nine innings (6.1). However, while Snell has recorded eight-plus strikeouts in five of his previous seven starts, an Astros offense that is red hot should knock him out of the game before the sixth inning (he has recorded 18-plus outs in five consecutive starts), thus lowering his ceiling for strikeouts and an effective outing overall.

      We do not have faith in Houston’s Hunter Brown to out-duel Snell, as the team is 7-9 in his previous 16 starts, and he has recorded 15 or fewer outs in four consecutive starts. Thus, the Over is the safest play, especially as it has cashed in 20 of Houston’s last 29 games (+11.40 units, 35% ROI).

      Pick: Over 8.5 (-118)

      Colorado Rockies (+180) vs. San Francisco Giants (-215) | O/U 8 (-120/-102)

      The San Francisco Giants have been carried by their pitching staff all season, but even a top-10 rotation and bullpen cannot make up for their offensive inefficiencies of late. Since June 25, the Giants rank dead-last in the majors with 210 runs scored. Entering Thursday, the gap of 26 runs between them and the next lowest team was the same as the gap between the 29th and 25th-ranked offenses in that span.

      San Francisco faces a lefty in Ty Blach, who has a respectable 4.08 ERA away from Coors Field. The Giants will miss catcher Patrick Bailey’s bat in this game as he remains on the concussion list. Bailey’s .319 batting average against left-handed pitchers leads the team, and he ranks top two among all Giants hitters in slugging (.527), wOBA (.382), and wRC+ (145) against southpaws.

      Meanwhile, the Colorado Rockies offense should struggle against Giants phenom Kyle Harrison, as Colorado has the highest strikeout rate (28%) against left-handed pitchers in road games this year. Harrison has burst onto the scene with a 32.8% strikeout rate through his first three MLB starts, so we do not expect the Rockies to put many balls in play.

      The Under is 5-1 in the previous six meetings between these teams this year, and we expect another low-scoring affair in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

      Pick: Under 8 (-102)

      Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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      Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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