MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Rays vs. Guardians (Friday)
The Milwaukee Brewers advanced to the World Series after sweeping the Dodgers. The Cleveland Guardians or Tampa Bay Rays will be on the other side. The Guardians lead the series 2-1 after yesterday’s win. Will they grow the lead to 3-1, or will the Rays tie up the series at two?
I’ve got three MLB home run props for tonight’s American League Championship Series (ALCS) Game 4 below.
Find the best price on every home run prop >>
Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jose Ramirez (+610)
Josee Ramirez has a .293 ISO and a .420 wOBA against his last 45 righties. Additionally, he’s socked 35.1% of fly balls, 45.9% of hard contact and below 30% of ground balls against righties during that time.
Ramirez is set to face Nick Martinez of the Tampa Bay Rays, who has allowed his last 40 lefties to hit a .162 ISO and a .334 wOBA. Martinez has added only 15% of strikeouts against lefties and has allowed a .323 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against lefties in the last 30 days.
Ramirez and many lefties in Cleveland’s lineup have potential.
Chase DeLauter (+820)
Chase DeLauter has earned a .226 ISO and a wOBA of .436 with only 7.3% of strikeouts against righties in the last month. He’s another lefty who can take advantage of Nick Martinez’s struggles.
Again, Martinez has been poor against lefties. He’s allowed 56.2% of hard contact and has just a 5% swinging strike rate against lefties in the last 30 days.
DeLauter has hit 53.6% of hard contact and nearly 36% of line drives. Hopefully he can hook a line drive over the wall tonight.
Patrick Bailey (+920)
At +920, Patrick Bailey looks great on paper. The switch-hitting catcher has smashed a .353 ISO and a .419 wOBA against his last 37 righties. While his strikeout rate is high, you wouldn’t expect him to look bad at the plate against Martinez, who, again, has just 15% of strikeouts against lefties in the last month.
Additionally, Martinez has struck out just 15.8% of lefties this season while allowing nearly 33% of fly balls to lefties.
Bailey has hit 35% of fly balls in the last month against righties and has a 70% hard-hit rate, the best in the Guardians’ lineup against righties over the last month.
Give Bailey a try at +920.