The Milwaukee Brewers advanced to the World Series after sweeping the Dodgers. The Cleveland Guardians or Tampa Bay Rays will be on the other side. The Guardians lead the series 2-1 after yesterday’s win. Will they grow the lead to 3-1, or will the Rays tie up the series at two?
I’ve got three MLB home run props for tonight’s American League Championship Series (ALCS) Game 4 below.
Find the best price on every home run prop >>
Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jose Ramirez (+610)
Josee Ramirez has a .293 ISO and a .420 wOBA against his last 45 righties. Additionally, he’s socked 35.1% of fly balls, 45.9% of hard contact and below 30% of ground balls against righties during that time.
Ramirez is set to face Nick Martinez of the Tampa Bay Rays, who has allowed his last 40 lefties to hit a .162 ISO and a .334 wOBA. Martinez has added only 15% of strikeouts against lefties and has allowed a .323 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against lefties in the last 30 days.
Ramirez and many lefties in Cleveland’s lineup have potential.
Chase DeLauter (+820)
Chase DeLauter has earned a .226 ISO and a wOBA of .436 with only 7.3% of strikeouts against righties in the last month. He’s another lefty who can take advantage of Nick Martinez’s struggles.
Again, Martinez has been poor against lefties. He’s allowed 56.2% of hard contact and has just a 5% swinging strike rate against lefties in the last 30 days.
DeLauter has hit 53.6% of hard contact and nearly 36% of line drives. Hopefully he can hook a line drive over the wall tonight.
Patrick Bailey (+920)
At +920, Patrick Bailey looks great on paper. The switch-hitting catcher has smashed a .353 ISO and a .419 wOBA against his last 37 righties. While his strikeout rate is high, you wouldn’t expect him to look bad at the plate against Martinez, who, again, has just 15% of strikeouts against lefties in the last month.
Additionally, Martinez has struck out just 15.8% of lefties this season while allowing nearly 33% of fly balls to lefties.
Bailey has hit 35% of fly balls in the last month against righties and has a 70% hard-hit rate, the best in the Guardians’ lineup against righties over the last month.
Give Bailey a try at +920.
