Five English Premier League matches will be played on Saturday, and I'm making picks for three of the biggest games. Below, I highlight why Everton should shut down Chelsea's scorers, why Manchester City should continue its dominant start, and why Aston Villa should be able to exploit a weak Newcastle United defense.
Here are the best bets for the English Premier League matches being played on October 17.
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Premier League Picks & Predictions: Matchday 7
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Everton vs. Chelsea
Chelsea has scored 15 goals, the third-most in the Premier League behind only Brighton & Hove Albion and Manchester City. However, Chelsea has struggled in recent matches against top defensive teams. They were shut out by Brentford on Sept. 18 and scored just once against Arsenal earlier this season.
Everton enters this match having allowed just five goals, which is tied for the fewest in the league. Everton has shut out three opponents this season, allowing more than one goal just twice. Including the English Carabao Cup and Club Friendlies, no squad has scored more than twice against Everton in 10 consecutive matches.
Joao Pedro, Chelsea's leading goalscorer, hasn't scored against Everton in two matches with Chelsea. Additionally, Chelsea hasn't scored more than twice in its last four matches against Everton, scoring once in one match and failing to score twice.
Pick: Chelsea Under 1.5 Goals (-122)
Manchester City vs. Ipswich
Manchester City sits atop the table after rolling through its first six matches. Led by Erling Haaland and Rayan Cherki, Man City has outscored Premier League opponents 16-5. Three of Manchester City's six wins have been by multiple goals, including the club's most recent league performance, which resulted in a 3-0 win over Liverpool.
While Ipswich has picked up nine points this season, the team has a -3 goal differential, scoring just nine times in six matches. Ipswich has lost two of six matches by multiple goals, including a 5-2 loss to Manchester United.
While taking Manchester City Over 2.5 goals may seem like the safest bet, the price of -131 isn't as valuable as the price of +150 for Manchester City to simply win by three or more. If you want to play it safe, you can, as Manchester City covering a spread of -2.5 obviously means they'll score three times. But I'm going with the value, as the defense has six clean sheets in its last 10 matches.
Pick: Manchester City -2.5 (+150)
Newcastle United vs. Aston Villa
After sleepwalking through the early matches of the season, Aston Villa has only six goals in six Premier League matches. However, the offense has come to life of late, scoring six times in its most recent UEFA Champions League match, and at least twice in five consecutive matches overall.
Newcastle has accumulated eight points this season, but the defense has struggled, allowing 13 goals, which is tied for the most in the league. Newcastle has allowed at least two goals in three of its last four Premier League matches, allowing four in two of its last three contests.
If this match were being played a few weeks ago, I wouldn't have as much confidence in Aston Villa's offense. But the team seems to have turned a corner, and with Newcastle's defense struggling for answers, I'll back one of the league's lowest-scoring teams to find the net at least twice.
Picks: Aston Villa Over 1.5 Goals (+115)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.