MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Friday (7/12)
Reminiscent of last Friday, today brings a lot of options to the table when putting together a No Runs First Inning (NRFI) card. I've selected three games that stand out, featuring some frequent flyers in the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, along with other teams that I haven't backed in this market this year.
Tonight's picks feature a southpaw-heavy diet with some pretty poor offenses in some brutal hitting environments, which is all you can ask for to get an NRFI to the window in the middle of July. I'll also mention that the White Sox vs. Pirates game may be a late add for me as Garrett Crochet is going for the White Sox, but the Pirates have not yet committed to a starting pitcher.
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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
2024 NRFI Record: 37-23 (+4.84 units)
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal vs. James Paxton
The Tigers have frequented these articles perhaps more than any other team in MLB. American League Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal has a lot to do with that. I've laid it out numerous times before, but Skubal has been nothing short of phenomenal this season. He ranks above the 90th percentile in xERA, whiff%, K%, walk rate and hard-hit%. His xBA, average exit velocity and chase rate all also come in above the 79th percentile. His ground ball rate of 46.9% ranks in the 69th percentile. While the Dodgers’ lineup is certainly one of the more formidable in the entire league, they've hit a bit of a rough patch where they have lost eight of their past 12 games, scoring three runs or fewer in six.
Veteran lefty James Paxton is certainly past his prime and far less effective than he used to be, but I'm backing him to hold up his end of the bargain on this play against a terrible Detroit Tigers offense. The Tigers rank 20th or worse in slugging percentage (SLG) and home runs, and 24th or worse in batting average (AVG), on-base percentage (OBP) and OPS. They also have a worse OBP and OPS against left-handed pitching, which will help Paxton out in this matchup. Comerica Park is also one of my favorite venues to target for NRFI plays, as it ranks 22nd overall in offensive ballpark factors and fourth-worst in homer run rate since 2022. I trust Skubal to navigate through a tough Dodgers lineup and I trust Paxton to get through a much more inferior Tigers lineup in the opening fame tonight.
Play: NRFI (-115 @ FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Anderson vs. Bryan Woo
Lefty Tyler Anderson gets the ball for the Angels tonight as their lone representative to the All-Star game next week. His success has been a little perplexing, as he doesn't throw hard nor generate a ton of strikeouts, so the underlying metrics don't necessarily love him. He has done an excellent job of limiting hard contact though, as he ranks above the 80th percentile in both hard-hit% and average exit velocity. He draws a Mariners lineup that has been objectively dreadful and perplexing in its own right, ranking 25th or worse in AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG. They haven't hit anyone all year long, and I don't expect them to start tonight against the All-Star Anderson.
A guy who figures to make an All-Star game at some point is Mariners SP Bryan Woo, who has been absolutely lights out this season in limited action. Woo has only eight starts but holds a 1.77 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. His numbers are backed by his advanced metrics, as he ranks in the 99th percentile with an xERA of 2.17 and in the 87th percentile with an xBA of 0.210. He also doesn't strike out a ton of batters, but he ranks in the 99th percentile in barrel% and the 72nd percentile in hard-hit% with a minuscule walk rate of 2% that puts him in the 100th percentile. He'll face an Angels offense that has had struggles of their own this season, ranking in the bottom 10 in AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG.
Play: NRFI (-130 @ BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook)
San Francisco Giants vs. Minnesota Twins
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Harrison vs. Joe Ryan
While Giants LHP Kyle Harrison doesn't have the baseball card to blow you away, he's a guy I look to back in certain situations. For starters, he's a better pitcher at home, allowing fewer home runs and walks while striking out more and allowing a lower AVG to his opponents. He's also a reverse splits guy, with better numbers against righties than lefties, which will be critical in this game against a platoon-based Twins lineup that should be able to deploy a lot of righties against Harrison. They will also be without the services of Royce Lewis, who just can't seem to stay consistently healthy. I'm rolling the dice a little bit with this play, but I like the spot for Harrison.
The Twins will send out Joe Ryan, who continues to fly under the radar as a terrific starting pitcher. Ryan's xBA and xERA both rank over the 79th percentile, with a chase% and K% that both qualify over the 70th percentile. His walk rate is a minuscule 3.7%. His average exit velocity and hard-hit% both come in around league average. The Giants are middling overall as an offense, though they will be in their inferior hitting splits against the righty Ryan on Friday evening. Lastly, Oracle Park is another environment I look to target in these NRFI plays, as it ranks third-worst in overall offensive ballpark factors and dead-last in home run rate since 2022.
Play: NRFI (-130 @ Caesars Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: