MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (7/8)
Monday comes with an abbreviated seven-game MLB slate. Luckily, there are still multiple games that foster favorable No Run First Inning (NRFI) conditions.
With that in mind, here are two of my favorite NRFI picks along with a bonus play for Monday, July 8.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise specified)
New York Mets (-105) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) | O/U 8.5 (-120/+100)
Starting Pitchers: Christian Scott vs. Mitch Keller
Our first NRFI bet for Monday features the finale of a four-game set between the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates. None of the first three games of this series have resulted in a first-inning run. That has been a trend for both offenses in recent games.
The New York Mets have been held scoreless through one inning in nine consecutive games. Not to be outdone, Pittsburgh has not scored a first-inning run in 10 straight ballgames. Both starting pitchers scheduled for Monday have also been stingy in the first inning, particularly of late.
Mitch Keller is 14-3 overall to the NRFI this year. That includes 11 consecutive first-inning shutouts. And after allowing a run in his Major League debut before recording an out, Christian Scott has settled in nicely. He has held all five subsequent opponents scoreless in the first inning.
The Mets are likely to start Monday's game with Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Martinez, Pete Alonso and Francisco Alvarez atop their lineup. Keller has held that quintet to a combined 3-for-26 mark in his career, including no extra-base hits.
All of these trends should continue on Monday and result in a scoreless first inning. Most sportsbooks have this in the -115 to -120 range. I am fine playing this NRFI bet at that price.
Bet: NRFI (-105 via BetMGM Sportsbook)
Colorado Rockies (+150) at Cincinnati Reds (-185) | O/U 9.5 (+100/-120)
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Feltner vs. Andrew Abbott
This NRFI bet is more of a bet against the respective offenses in this game rather than one in favor of the starting pitchers involved. Having said that, I do believe the season-long NRFI numbers for Andrew Abbott and Ryan Feltner may be a bit misleading.
For the season, Abbott is 10-7 to the NRFI, while Feltner's record sits at 9-8. However, Abbott has four straight NRFIs under his belt. He is also 4-1 to the NRFI in his last five home starts. Similarly, Feltner has held three straight opponents scoreless in the first inning. He is 5-1 to the NRFI in his last six road starts.
The hitting numbers are still the primary reason I like this bet, though. Let's start with the Rockies.
Colorado has scored a total of one first-inning run across their past 13 games. That is especially damning considering that seven of those games were played in Coors Field. And they have been particularly inept in the first inning when a left-handed pitcher is on the mound this season.
They have the lowest first-inning wRC+ in the Major Leagues (45) when a left-hander starts this year. If you think that is bad, that number drops to -27 in road games versus lefties.
Abbott has solid numbers against most of the hitters that make up the top of Colorado's expected lineup. Brendan Rodgers is 2-for-3 with a home run against Abbott. But the southpaw has held the trio of Ezequiel Tovar, Ryan McMahon and Elias Diaz hitless in nine combined at-bats. I think he can get the job done against a weak offense.
Cincinnati has been held scoreless in the first inning in nine straight games overall. And while Great American Ball Park is a hitter's park, that has not helped the home team get off to fast offensive starts this year.
When the Reds are at home and facing a right-handed pitcher this season, they have the second-lowest first-inning batting average (.178) along with the second-highest strikeout rate (33.9%). They also have the lowest batting average on balls in play (BABIP) at a clip of .196 in this split.
Feltner has done a solid job at keeping the ball in the park on the road this year. He has allowed just six home runs to 217 hitters on the road. As long as he can avoid the home run ball, I like him to do his part to help us cash this plus-money NRFI bet.
Bet: NRFI (+105 via BetMGM Sportsbook)
Bonus Bet: St. Louis Cardinals No First Inning Runs
I could not advocate playing the NRFI in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals because I do not trust Miles Mikolas against Washington's revamped lineup. However, I think there is a lot to like on the other side of this equation.
Nationals starter Mitchell Parker has allowed just two singles in the first inning across six home starts. He has yet to give up a run or walk in this split while striking out eight out of 19 hitters faced. His opponents’ .093 first-inning wOBA is the second-lowest among 125 pitchers who have made at least six home starts this season.
St. Louis is arguably a worse offense than Colorado when it comes to facing left-handed pitchers on the road. In 14 games when facing a left-hander, the Cardinals have scored just one run this year. That came via a Paul Goldschmidt home run back on Memorial Day.
If you would like to play the NRFI for this game, the best price is +106 on FanDuel Sportsbook. I would rather take the Cardinals not to score a first-inning run and pair that with something else. The best price I have found for this play is -285 at Fanatics Sportsbook.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: