MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (8/5)
Monday features a modest nine-game MLB slate. There are some questionable starting pitchers scheduled and many historical BvP matchups that favor the hitters. Because of that, there are only a pair of NRFI (No Runs First Inning) bets I am playing on Monday.
Here are my two favorite NRFI bets for Monday, August 5th.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified)
New York Mets (-118) at St. Louis Cardinals (+100) | O/U 8.5 (-128/+104)
Starting Pitchers: Sean Manaea vs. Andre Pallante
The first game on Monday's MLB slate is also our first NRFI bet of the day.
Sean Manaea and the New York Mets take on Andre Pallante and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Both pitchers have been excellent in the first inning so far this season. Manaea is 18-3 to the NRFI, while Pallante is 9-1. I like both hurlers to continue their early dominance in this game.
The Mets enter Monday's matchup with MLB's longest active first-inning scoring drought by a country mile. New York has not scored in the first inning in their last 20 games. No other MLB team even has a 10-game current scoreless streak.
Since July 1st, New York has a -2 wRC+ when facing a right-handed pitcher in the first inning. That includes six singles and 29 strikeouts in 66 at-bats. Pallante has given up just three singles in the first inning across five home starts this year.
St. Louis has had issues offensively in the first inning against left-handed pitchers all season long. They are hitting .188 versus lefties this year in the first inning, including a .111 mark since July 1.
Manaea's 1.29 ERA and .171 opposing batting average in the first inning rank in the top 25 among 150 qualified starting pitchers this season. I like both Pallante and Manaea to kick off Monday's action by tossing scoreless first frames.
Bet: NRFI (-104 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Phillies (+115) at Los Angeles Dodgers (-134) | O/U 8 (-109/-110)
Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola vs. Tyler Glasnow
I am going to bookend my NRFI plays with the final game on the schedule for Monday. Tyler Glasnow and the Los Angeles Dodgers host Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies. While both teams sport potent offenses, I am trusting two elite pitchers to get the job done early.
Glasnow is 17-3 to the NRFI this season. In 20 first innings, the Dodgers right-hander has allowed a .106 batting average, .155 on-base percentage (OBP) and .158 weighted on-base average (wOBA). Glasnow ranks in the top three in all three metrics among 150 qualified starters this year.
He has also had success against the top of Philadelphia's lineup throughout his career. Glasnow has held the trio of Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper to a combined 4-for-22 (.182) lifetime mark. Included in those 22 at-bats are 10 Glasnow strikeouts.
Philadelphia's top three hitters have also struggled of late. The triumvirate enters Monday's contest with a combined .191 batting average (13-for-68) over the past seven days. I believe Glasnow will be able to shut down the Phillies in the first frame on Monday.
On the other side of the NRFI equation is Aaron Nola. Nola is 17-5 to the NRFI this year. That includes an 8-2 record on the road. It also includes a scoreless inning against the Dodgers on July 11.
To that point, Nola has excellent historical numbers against most of the Dodgers he is expected to face in Monday's first inning. Nola has held Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, Gavin Lux and Teoscar Hernandez to a combined .182 batting average (6-for-32) with just two walks and 11 strikeouts.
You may have noticed I left Freddie Freeman out of that equation. Freeman is currently on the Family Medical Emergency list as he deals with his son's illness. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said recently Freeman may return in this series. I remain skeptical given the circumstances. Here's hoping for the best for the Freeman family.
For what it is worth, Nola has had solid success against Freeman in their head-to-head encounters. Freeman is hitting just .233 with six extra-base hits in 83 career trips to the plate against Nola. Regardless of Freeman's status, I expect Nola to navigate his way through another scoreless first inning on Monday night.
Bet: NRFI (-125 via BetRivers)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: