MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Sunday (4/19)
If you parlayed the opposite of all of my MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks last week, you could’ve cashed in a pretty juice payday. Alas, we aim to get some positive momentum going and get back in the black where we were for the entire season up to this week.
There are several quality pitchers to back from an NRFI perspective on today’s slate, and others I am happy to oppose for early runs at decent odds.
Let's dive into some games on this April 19th slate and make some MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks.
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Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 3-5 (-2.64 units, -33% ROI)
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers: Framber Valdez vs. Garrett Crochet
Before Detroit had a five-game winning streak halted with a 1-0 10-inning pitchers' duel in Friday’s series opener, it outscored opponents 20-5 during the streak. Instead of focusing on the offensive side of that number, I am more intrigued by the five runs the Tigers allowed in that stretch. It led to their team ERA being ranked sixth entering the weekend. In fact, at one point Detroit’s starting pitchers went at least 5.2 innings and allowed one or fewer runs in six consecutive starts for the first time since 2006.
Meanwhile, Garrett Crochet had a start to forget last time out, as a former AL Central rival, the Minnesota Twins, tagged him for 11 runs over 1.2 innings while the southpaw didn't record a single strikeout.
This is a great buy-low spot with Crochet facing another former AL Central foe.Especially since he dominated the Tigers to the tune of a 0.90 ERA and 12.6 K/9 rate in two starts last season.
Pick: NRFI (-172)
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Cole Ragans vs. Ryan Weathers
Showers are expected to linger around the time of first pitch and the weather will likely to clear up in the afternoon. That could cause the start of this game to be delayed and mess with the starting pitchers' routines. Yankees southpaw Ryan Weathers is coming off a subpar outing where he allowed four home runs and issued multiple walks for the third time in four starts.
Weathers is allowing a .500 slugging percentage to right-handed batters. This should give sluggers like Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez opportunities to play more like the back of their baseball cards.
Also, anytime Aaron Judge is due up, there is a strong chance of a run being scored. Judge hit five of his eight home runs over the last seven days entering Saturday, while posting a ridiculous 1.290 OPS over that span.
Pick: YRFI (+112)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros
Starting Pitchers: Matthew Liberatore vs. Mike Burrows
Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore's splits against left-handed batters versus righties are so egregious that I’ll also be adding Yordan Alvarez to homer to the day’s MLB bets portfolio.
Lefties are slashing .429/.455/.857 and have hit three home runs in just 21 at-bats against Liberatore, while he has held righties to a more respectable .254/.324/.365 slash line.
Meanwhile, among qualified pitchers, Astros righty Mike Burrows was one of two entering the weekend with a HR/9 rate higher than 2.0, as his 2.05 rate was only better than Liberatore.
Burrows has allowed four of his five home runs to left-handed batters (in just three more at-bats), which is a big reason for his eye-popping .694 slugging percentage and 1.157 OPS allowed in that split.
It may just take one swing of the bat to cash the YRFI in this interleague series finale.
Pick: YRFI (-115)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.