MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (8/20)
Last Friday got us back on track with three winners. Tonight's slate of games had two spots that immediately jumped out to me in the No Runs First Inning (NRFI) market. Each of the four pitchers in this article had a spot on their respective league's All-Star game this year, though three of them I wouldn't consider to be high-profile names. I'm also choosing to fade some pretty decent offenses, but they provide us some pretty decent prices in each game and I'm comfortable with it because the pitching matchups and/or splits are working in our favor.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
2024 NRFI Record: 44-38 (+0.40 Units) | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Starting Pitchers: Reynaldo Lopez vs. Zack Wheeler
Right-handed veteran Reynaldo Lopez has had an excellent season for the Braves, serving as a stable presence in what has been a pretty injury-riddled rotation throughout the year. Though his advanced numbers aren't necessarily outstanding, he has a very respectable 1.19 WHIP with a terrific 2.06 ERA. On Baseball Savant, his pitching run value grades out in the 99th percentile, with fastball and breaking balls grading out in the 95th and 99th percentiles, respectively. Perhaps the most impressive statistic of all is the fact Lopez has surrendered more than three earned runs in a start only one time this entire season. While he'll be taking on a Phillies lineup certainly among the best in the MLB, with a nice diversity of right-handed and left-handed batters with power throughout, Lopez dominated in his only start against them this season, tossing six innings of shutout baseball while striking out six and only allowing two hits. The Phillies will also be in their worst hitting splits against the righty Lopez this evening, which will work to his benefit.
The current runner-up in the National League Cy Young race is Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler, who has put together another phenomenal season. He holds a 2.72 ERA with an 88th percentile xERA, a 0.98 WHIP and a 91st percentile xBA of 0.203. He's been excellent at avoiding hard contact, with a hard-hit% and average exit velocity that both rank in at least the 86th percentile. His K% and chase% both also grade out above the 80th percentile, with nearly all of his other advanced numbers ranking comfortably above league average. Wheeler draws a Braves offense that's a shadow of its 2023 self, middling in most categories and ranking bottom-10 in on-base percentage (OBP). Like the Phillies, they will also be in their worst hitting splits against the right-hander Wheeler tonight.
Pick: NRFI (-115)
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers: Cole Ragans vs. Tyler Anderson
Lefty Cole Ragans will go for Kansas City tonight, looking to continue his outstanding year in his first season as a full-time starter for the Royals. Ragans ranks among the league leaders in terms of strikeouts, ranking above the 88th percentile in both K% and whiff% with a chase% that sits in the 71st percentile. He doesn't get hit particularly hard either, with a hard-hit%, barrel%, xBA and xERA that all rank in the top third of pitchers. While the Angels have a slight advantage against left-handed pitching, their lineup isn't all that imposing. On the year, they rank 23rd or worse in batting average (AVG), OBP, OPS, slugging rate (SLG) and home runs. I like Ragans to go deep into this game, dominating the Angels all night long.
Angels All-Star southpaw Tyler Anderson will take the opposing mound, a pitcher who seems to consistently outperform expectations. Anderson does not throw hard at all, with a fastball that averages just 89.2 miles per hour (MPH), which does not lead to a very high strikeout rate. He does, however, limit hard contact with the best of them, with a hard-hit% and average exit velocity that both rank above the 86th percentile. He's also been in really good form lately, pitching well above league average in terms of xWOBA dating back to his previous 100 batters faced, and that includes a performance against the Blue Jays where he was roughed up a bit. While the Royals certainly have a potent offense, especially at home, their power numbers do take a dip against left-handed pitching. I will defer to Anderson and his funky delivery to continue to generate soft contact tonight, and get through the first inning unscathed.
Pick: NRFI (-115)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: