Both of my MLB picks tonight come from the American League East, where I'm looking to take advantage of two teams moving in opposite directions as we pass the midway point of the season and draw nearer to the All-Star break.
The slumping Yankees find themselves as favorites tonight against Tarik Skubal and the Tigers, which I cannot justify even with Cam Schlittler on the bump. Meanwhile, the Rays find themselves as very short favorites tonight against one of the most dysfunctional teams in the Royals. They should be favored, but the price is way too short and I'm happy to take advantage of that.
I think these are two great angles to attack tonight, and I see the Rays extending their division lead before the night concludes.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees
The Yankees are in a bad spot right now, losers in eight out of their last 10 and still without the services of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Trent Grisham. That's bad news, as Tarik Skubal comes into town looking to avenge his loss against the Yankees that came just last week.
While Skubal hasn't quite exhibited the same dominance we've seen in his previous American League Cy Young Award-winning seasons, he's still among the top handful of pitchers, with an argument for the top spot on any given day. His swing-and-miss stuff is elite, grading out above the 80th percentile in both whiff rate and strikeout rate, with a 94th-percentile chase rate.
Skubal prides himself on not allowing free passes, either, with a 99th percentile 3.4% walk rate. His 77th percentile groundball rate is also really impressive for his profile as a power pitcher. Paul Goldschmidt took him deep twice last week, as did righty Jasson Dominguez, and I don't see Skubal making those same mistakes tonight.
Skubal should go deep in this one and have a big night against a sputtering Yankees offense that has failed to score more than four runs in each of their previous 10 games. The Yankees have a great counter in American League Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler, but this play is all about backing Skubal in a huge revenge spot.
The Yankees always seem to have a mid-season slump around this time of year, which usually coincides with key injuries, and I'm counting on that to continue tonight against the two-time reigning American League Cy Young Award winner.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline (+102 at BetRivers)
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
The Rays have certainly taken advantage of the Yankees’ struggles, winning five straight to reclaim the top spot in the American League East. They'll face Royals southpaw Noah Cameron this evening, whom they just handed a loss to after forcing him to rack up five earned runs in five innings.
Cameron has been really ineffective this season, with a 4.50 ERA that is nearly identical to his 36th-percentile xERA of 4.42, paired with an elevated 1.33 WHIP. His xBA of 0.268 puts him in the 18th percentile, and he ranks below the league average in chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, barrel rate and groundball rate.
Cameron’s fastball and breaking pitches also grade out in the bottom third of all pitchers in terms of run value. That's a really bad pitching profile against a Tampa Bay team that strikes out at the lowest rate of any team in baseball and lives on the basepaths, ranking in the top five in batting average and on-base percentage (OBP), with an 11th-best OPS.
The Rays will counter with Griffin Jax, who has converted from a reliever to a starter with a fair amount of success in the Rays organization. Jax has gone at least five innings in six of his last eight starts, to the tune of a season-long 3.33 ERA.
Jax’s swing-and-miss stuff has been outstanding, grading out in the top quartile of pitchers in terms of both chase rate and whiff rate, in large part thanks to his 79th-percentile breaking pitches.
Jax has done a nice job keeping the ball out of the air as well, as evidenced by his 77th percentile groundball rate of 47.4%. He just posted his best start of the season against these Royals, striking out seven and allowing zero earned runs in five innings. I'm looking for him to run that back tonight.
The Royals have been one of the most disappointing teams this season, especially offensively, ranking in the bottom half of baseball in OBP and in the bottom 10 in OPS, slugging rate, home runs and walks drawn. They can also credit their lack of overall success to their abysmal bullpen, which ranks second-worst in MLB with a 5.43 ERA and a sky-high league-worst WHIP of 1.58.
I give Tampa Bay the edge at starting pitcher, even with a converted reliever, and a decisive edge in the bullpen and on offense. I'm happy to take them on the Moneyline tonight, especially at this price.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
