Navigate

MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (4/22)

by |

Tremendous pitching battles headline Saturday’s games. Former Cy Young Award winners Sandy Alcantara and Shane Bieber duel in Cleveland while AL Cy Young hopefuls Dylan Cease and Shane McClanahan do battle in Tampa Bay. Do any of these aces make our player prop best bets column?

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Saturday.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Saturday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
YTD: 22-30-1 (-5.80 units)

Sandy Alcantara Under earned runs allowed vs. Guardians

It would have been impossible for oddsmakers to make Miami a road favorite when facing an AL Central favorite, especially when they are throwing a former Cy Young winner who has made four consecutive quality starts to begin the season. However, many are making too big of a deal of Sandy Alcantara’s 5.84 ERA through four starts, as we are not buying into the narrative that Alcantara is tired after leading the league in innings pitched last year.

Alcantara allowed five runs (only three earned) in his previous start, but we are more focused on his 9:0 K:BB ratio, as his stuff was the most electric it has been all season. He has a 3.06 ERA in 17 career interleague starts, and only two Guardians have faced Alcantara in more than one game (Josh Bell and Amed Rosario are a combined 6-for-38), which should give the righty a huge advantage at least the first couple of times through the order.

Cleveland has scored three or fewer runs in eight of its last 12 games, and Alcantara should do his part in limiting the opposition once again. We expect him to be named the Game 1 starter to oppose Shane Bieber (since that was Friday’s originally scheduled matchup), and would confidently play this number at 2.5 when available.

Bet: Alcantara Under earned runs (Play down to 1.5) (OFF at DraftKings) 

Pablo Lopez to record a win vs. Nationals

Minnesota is the biggest favorite of any team on today’s slate and should soon endure positive regression from a +1 run differential through seven home games thus far.

The Twins are 2-2 in Pablo Lopez’s starts despite scoring eight total runs in that span. That is a testament to Lopez’s stuff, as he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in every start this year and has completed at least six innings in seven of eight starts dating back to last year. 

Offense should not be an issue for Minnesota when facing Chad Kuhl, who ranks in the eighth percentile or worse in average exit velocity, xSLG, barrels, and strikeout percentage.    

Lopez leads all Twins starting pitchers with an 11.4 K/9 rate, 93.5 pitches per start and is second in WAR behind Sonny Gray. Minnesota went 7-3 in his final ten starts last season against non-playoff teams, which makes these odds justified for him to earn the victory today.

Bet: Lopez to record a win (-130 at DraftKings)

Gio Urshela Over 1.5 total bases vs. Royals

The Royals are 0-4 in Zack Greinke’s starts, losing by a combined 21-6, and have allowed 16 of those runs in his last two appearances. And while a more usual suspect in the Angels lineup, Mike Trout has outstanding career numbers against Greinke (.318/.342/.682 slash line), so does Gio Urshela, whose props provide much better value.

Urshela has eight hits in 17 at-bats against Greinke, which results in a 1.291 OPS. He entered Friday with just nine RBI in 16 games but has a higher WAR than Shohei Ohtani (with his pitching stats excluded), largely because he is batting .297 with a .703 OPS. In addition, Urshela may rank in the bottom fourth of the league in hard-hit percentage and barrels but is still finding enough holes and is facing a pitcher in the 14th percentile in xBA.

Urshela has recorded a hit in eight of his last ten games, with three multi-hit games in that span. And with Greinke’s xERA of 4.93 much higher than his actual 4.03, it suggests he is in line for regression, which we are betting Urshela will take advantage of. Urshela’s odds to get a hit are too steep (-260), so we are opting for better value with his total bases prop.

Bet: Urshela Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at DraftKings)

Check out our other best bets for Saturday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.