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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (8/12)

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Another profitable 2-1 day from our last player prop article on Thursday brings us to a 5-1 overall record this week and has us itching to end another week on a high note.

With our three player prop selections today, Aug. 12, we look at two pitcher props among starters that have been dominant at home this season, as well as a batter prop from a leadoff hitter that has been one of the hottest players in MLB over the last two weeks.

Saturday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Chris Bassitt Under 2.5 Earned Runs vs. Cubs (-105) 

If this were our MLB Best Bets article, we would have a play on the Under in this matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Toronto Blue Jays, considering the Under has cashed in 13 of Toronto’s last 16 games. However, while Chris Bassitt has gotten little run support in his starts of late, we cannot overlook his dominance at the Rogers Centre all season.

Bassitt is one of four Blue Jays starters that ranks in the top 17 in the AL in ERA and is in his much better split pitching at home, as his home ERA and WHIP are 2.56 and 0.92 compared to 5.19 and 1.57 on the road. In addition, his seven starts of 6+ IP without allowing an earned run are tied with teammate Kevin Gausman for the most in the majors. 

While Chicago entered Friday tied for the second-best record in the NL (21-14) since June 1, its lineup also ranks dead-last in the majors with a 26.8% hard contact rate in road games against right-handed pitchers in that span. Thus, Bassitt should have no issue limiting the damage in this start, and we are getting a reasonable price considering the Cubs have cashed the team total Over in 29 of their last 49 games (+6.89 units).

Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs vs. Angels (-150)

The Houston Astros have scored seven or more runs in four of their last six games. They should be comfortable in this hitting split tonight facing Los Angeles Angels southpaw Tyler Anderson, as they rank top-seven in wRC+, OPS, wOBA, and BB/K rate against left-handed pitching this year.

Since July 27, when Jose Altuve’s 13-game hitting streak began, few hitters in MLB have been hotter. Altuve’s .434 batting average ranks fifth in that span (min. 20 PA), with an even more eye-popping .500 BABIP and 1.214 OPS. Altuve also has a wRC+ of 238 during his hitting streak (the next-highest Astros hitter’s is 192), and he has had success against Anderson, slashing .273/.333/.545 in 11 career at-bats. Several hitters batting behind him in the lineup, like Kyle Tucker, have hit better all season against southpaws, so Altuve should have no trouble scoring a run if he continues to get on base at a high clip or driving in runs in as the table-setter for this deep Astros lineup.       

Alex Cobb Under 2.5 Earned Runs vs. Rangers (-140)

Few could have predicted that Alex Cobb would be the most dominant starting pitcher in home starts this season, let alone the best on his own staff. Cobb’s 1.46 ERA in nine home starts is the best in the majors. In addition, he has thrown a quality start in six of his last seven appearances at Oracle Park and benefits by facing a short-handed Rangers lineup without Jonah Heim or Josh Jung, who accounted for 26 combined home runs and 100 RBIs against right-handed pitching before landing on the IL.

Perhaps Cobb is due for regression as there is a big gap between his xERA (4.55) and actual ERA (3.30), and his .273 xBA is higher than the league average of .245 (ranks in the 14th percentile). If he were making this start in Texas, we would not be as excited about Cobb’s chances for success. However, the Rangers’ power will be limited in the cool Bay Area climate, and Cobb has done nothing in his home starts to suggest he will not pitch well tonight.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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