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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (8/5)

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In three of the six divisions in Major League Baseball (NL Central, AL East, AL West), the favorite to win the division entering the day had -125 odds or shorter at DraftKings, which suggests we are in for a fun next two months.

With division races kicking into high gear, which players stand out from a player prop perspective on this 15-game slate?

Saturday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Justin Verlander to record a win vs. Yankees (+135) 

Justin Verlander likely could not waive his no-trade clause fast enough when presented with the opportunity to rejoin the Houston Astros after a rocky couple of months with the New York Mets. Not only is Verlander joining a team that is one of the biggest favorites to make the World Series, but no pitcher in the live-ball era performed better than Verlander did with the Astros, as Paul Hembekides pointed out.

The New York Yankees cannot get away from Verlander this season, having already faced him in both Subway Series against the New York Mets. The Yankees have mustered just one run on five hits in 12 innings against Verlander this season while striking out 12 times. And five Yankees regulars (Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge, Jake Bauers, Giancarlo Stanton, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa) are a combined 11-for-72 (.153) against Verlander with just four extra base-hits and a 36.1 percent strikeout rate in that span. Thus, with more than half the lineup struggling mightily against Verlander, it lowers their offensive ceiling considerably.

Meanwhile, we expect Yankees southpaw Nestor Cortes to be rusty in his first start since May 30, and his 42.1 percent hard-hit contact rate allowed only ranks in the 30th percentile. New York won four of Cortes’s last five starts before his injury, but the team provided him with six plus runs of support in four of those, which we do not see happening against Verlander.

Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Rockies (+115)

Only two hitters on today’s slate have a 1.500 OPS or better in a minimum of ten at-bats against their opposing pitcher today, and one of them is St. Louis Cardinals slugger Nolan Arenado against Colorado Rockies southpaw Ty Blach.

Arenado is an impressive 10-for-16 with four extra-base hits and a 1.563 OPS against Blach. We are not backing Arenado to homer, as Blach has done an excellent job keeping the ball in the yard, allowing just two home runs in his 21.1 innings. But we like the price we are getting for Arenado to drive in a run, as right-handed hitters are batting .355 against Blach this year, and his ERA is 1.37 runs higher away from Coors Field.

Arenado has a team-best .850 OPS against left-handed pitching (min. 50 ABs) this season. And he should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs hitting behind Paul Goldschmidt, who is slashing .300/.364/.600 in 10 career at-bats against Blach. 

St. Louis has cashed the Over in 28 of its last 47 games at home (+8.40 units, 16% ROI), and we expect Arenado to play a key role in its offensive success again tonight.

Tarik Skubal Under 2.5 earned runs vs. Rays (-150)

The biggest storyline surrounding this game will be former Cleveland Guardians pitcher Aaron Civale making his team debut for the Tampa Bay Rays. Civale comes in red-hot to his first start with the Tampa Bay Rays, as he pitched to a 1.45 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and .176 OBA in six July starts. Civale has not lost a decision since June 14, but we expect his counterpart, Tarik Skubal, to be up to the task of keeping his team in the game.

Skubal and Civale each rank in the top 12 pitchers in baseball in WHIP since July 2. Skubal has allowed just four hits in 13 scoreless innings at home this season, and he leads the majors with a 1.33 FIP since the calendar turned to July. In addition, his top-five K% in that span (32.1%) offsets a substandard .340 BABIP in that span.

Tampa Bay scored an AL-worst 87 runs in July and had the worst team batting average (.216) and on-base percentage (.288) in that span. The Rays’ team total Under has cashed in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.55 units, 29% ROI), and we like the contrarian nature of this play, with most bettors’ attention likely going to Civale in his high-profile debut.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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