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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/30)

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We have been profitable with our last three player prop articles and are coming off a plus-unit day on Thursday, highlighted by a +150 cash with Austin Hays going hitless.

Entering the second-to-last day of the MLB regular season, just eight teams remain that have neither clinched a playoff spot nor been eliminated from playoff contention. Thus, be sure to check each team’s starting lineups as we get closer to game time, as many teams may rest key players with nothing to play for this weekend.

Saturday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Jazz Chisholm Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Pirates (+155)

The Miami Marlins made significant strides towards securing their first playoff berth in a full season since 2003 with last night’s 4-3 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Now as -148 moneyline favorites in a game with a high projected total (9.0 runs), the Marlins look to feast offensively against Pirates rookie Quinn Priester, who has been lit up for a 7.86 ERA in nine appearances this season.

Priester has been especially forgiving against left-handed batters, whom Priester has pitched to a .322 OBA and 2.08 WHIP against. Thus, we have the most confidence in Marlins lefty Jazz Chisholm to plate a run today, especially as four of his last five hits have gone for extra bases, which should make up for his .227 batting average over the previous seven days. Priester is allowing a GO/AO ratio of 0.39 less after the All-Star Break than pre-All-Star Break, which means batters are elevating his pitches more, and has us banking that Chisholm will get a hold of at least one today.

Justin Verlander Under 3.5 Earned Runs vs. Diamondbacks (-165)

Houston Astros righty Jose Urquidy shut down the Arizona Diamondbacks in an emergency start yesterday, limiting them to two hits over six scoreless innings. With an AL East title in sight (they start the day one game back of the Texas Rangers), we expect a similarly dominant performance from ace Justin Verlander, who knows a thing or two about pitching in big games.

Verlander has held current Diamondbacks hitters to a .272/.302/.418 slash line in 81 combined at-bats, with just one of his 18 hits allowed being a home run. Verlander entered his last start with a 2.88 career ERA in September/October, which is his best of any singular month, while his 1.074 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 rate were tied for second-best. He followed that up with an eight-inning, three-hit effort where he allowed just one earned run to the Seattle Mariners, a team that is neck-and-neck with them for not only the division title but an overall playoff spot.

Verlander may be given a longer leash today, given how much is on the line for the Astros, as evidenced by his lofty O/U of 3.5 earned runs. However, he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 14 of his last 17 starts, and we expect him to be at his best tonight.

Austin Slater Under 0.5 Hits vs. Dodgers (+120)

San Francisco Giants left fielder Austin Slater is one of the few hitters on the team with some career success against Los Angeles Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw, slashing .240/.240/.600 against him in 25 career at-bats, with three of his six hits going for home runs. However, Kershaw will likely be on a strict pitch count today, as the team has been allowing him just one start per week down the stretch to keep him healthy and rested for the playoffs.

So Slater could see a mix of three-plus Dodgers pitchers in his plate appearances tonight. In addition, Slater is slashing just .214/.283/.330 since the All-Star Break, and Kershaw has allowed just two hits apiece in each of his last two appearances while pitching to a 2.03 ERA in his previous seven starts.

Even at age 35, Kershaw still ranks in the top quarter of the league in chase percentage, strikeout percentage and ground-ball rate. We do not expect Slater to contribute much offensively to a team whose team total Under has cashed in 53 of its last 83 games (+20.17 units, 21% ROI).

Check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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