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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (8/1)

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Major League Baseball will be the center of the sports world today, as a flurry of deals is expected to be completed before the end of tonight’s trade deadline. So what will happen prior to today’s full 15-game slate, and what are our favorite prop bets from tonight’s schedule?

Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Whit Merrifield Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBIs (OFF) 

Whit Merrifield has been the Toronto Blue Jays’ most consistent hitter in the second half of the season, leading the team with a .404 batting average and 1.006 OPS entering Monday of all players with 34+ post-All-Star-Break at-bats. Merrifield is so hot that Blue Jays manager John Schneider has been experimenting with Merrifield batting leadoff for the last couple of games, and he has responded well in that spot. 

In the five games Merrifield has hit leadoff, he is slashing .375/.583/.958 with a 149 sOPS+. He is backed by Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who are a combined 10-for-30 with three home runs and just three strikeouts against Baltimore Orioles righty Kyle Bradish. Bichette and Guerrero have OPSs of .945 or better against Bradish, and Bradish’s ERA is 1.70 runs higher on the road than at home this season.

We would like Merrifield’s chances of scoring a run more if he batted leadoff again, while his chances of driving in a run are higher if he hits fifth behind Bichette and Guerrero. However, this hits/runs/RBIs wager gives us the flexibility to cash in a multitude of ways, and Merrifield has gone Over this prop in seven of his previous eight games.

DraftKings does not currently have any odds available for Toronto Blue Jays hitters, but Merrifield is -270 to get a hit, -105 to score a run, and +185 to record an RBI at FanDuel, which has us confident in cashing this Over.

Austin Riley Over 1.5 total bases vs. Angels (+100)

This is a strength vs. strength matchup, as Los Angeles Angels southpaw Patrick Sandoval has allowed just one home run over his previous 22 1/3 innings, while the Atlanta Braves have hit 4+ home runs in 16 games this season, the most in MLB. However, we expect Atlanta’s power to win out, as Sandoval has faced just one team in the top nine in home runs in his last four starts.  

All of Sandoval’s seven home runs allowed have been to right-handed batters, and his GO/AO ratio against righties is significantly lower than when facing left-handed batters (1.23 vs. 1.93). Thus, we are targeting Atlanta Braves slugger Austin Riley for a big power day, especially since he has two hits in both career at-bats against Sandoval. Riley is averaging a home run in every 10.7 at-bats against southpaws, and he is second on the team in ISO vs. lefties (.307), behind Marcell Ozuna’s .325.

Riley has gone Over his total bases prop in eight of the last 11 games, with six multi-hit games in that span. In addition, the Over is 33-21-1 in Atlanta’s 55 home games (61.1 percent), so we expect Riley to be a big part of the team’s offensive success again.

Jose Quintana to not record a win vs. Royals (-190)

After their weekend sweep of the first-place Minnesota Twins, the Kansas City Royals became the last team to win three straight games this season. Now the Royals face a New York Mets team that is playing its first series after dealing Max Scherzer, Mark Canha, and David Robertson (Justin Verlander may soon follow), so it would not be surprising to see a historically underachieving Mets team go through the motions in this series opener.

The only Mets hitter who has had more than three at-bats against Zack Greinke is Tommy Pham, who is 3-for-20 with a wOBA of .143. In addition, Greinke’s poor 1-11 record overshadows the fact that he has a decent 3.74 ERA in ten home starts this season. We have more faith in Greinke than in Mets southpaw Jose Quintana, who has allowed a .364 OBA and 1.88 WHIP to right-handed hitters. Thus, we expect the Royals to stack the lineup with righties (Quintana has not allowed a hit to lefties this season) and be competitive for the first half of the game. Kansas City has won eight of its last 14 home games +6.85 units, 49% ROI in their previous eight), so New York’s -155 moneyline odds nor Quintana’s +140 odds to record the victory are justified.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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