Erick Fedde will start his second game against the Orioles tonight, and I expect it to be a relatively successful one against one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the league. I also explain why Nolan McLean is going to come back down to Earth after two great starts and why Yordan Alvarez is set to break out of his slump. Here are the best MLB player props for Tuesday, June 3oth.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Erick Fedde Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+106)
The Orioles have struck out 778 times this season, which is the third-most in the league. While Erick Fedde is far from a strikeout pitcher, this is still a great matchup, and the price of +106 doesn't seem to factor in just how much trouble the Orioles have making contact.
Fedde has only 50 strikeouts in 74.2 innings this season. However, he has four strikeouts in three of his last four starts. Two of those three opponents are among the least strikeout-prone teams in the league.
Though Fedde has only struck out nine Orioles in 58 at-bats, he faced Baltimore earlier this season and struck out four batters. Since then, Fedde hasn't pitched very deep into games, going five or fewer innings in 10 consecutive starts. But Fedde struck out four Dodgers in 2.2 innings just over two weeks ago. If he can do that, he can find a way to strike out at least four Orioles no matter how long he's on the mound. For this price, there's no reason not to take a chance on him.
Nolan McLean Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+104)
I was hoping to get this number even higher, given how well Nolan McLean has been pitching lately. He's struck out nine batters in back-to-back games, and he now has 106 strikeouts in 89.1 innings this season. But for as great as McLean can be, he has six or fewer strikeouts in five of his last seven starts, posting five or fewer in three of those games.
McLean faces a brutal matchup against one of the least strikeout-prone teams in the league. The Blue Jays have struck out just 624 times, which is the third-fewest in the MLB. Through 84 games, they're averaging just 7.4 strikeouts per contest.
McLean doesn't have any history against hitters in the Blue Jays' lineup, so I'll give one of the best contact teams in baseball the edge here. I think you could wait on this until closer to first pitch, as recent performances may have bettors betting this line up to 6.5. However, at +104, taking under 5.5 is worth it.
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-135)
Yordan Alvarez is hitless in four consecutive games, but he still leads the league in total bases (185), and he's seventh in the league in batting average (.308).
Tonight, Alvarez will face the Twins and starter Joe Ryan. Ryan actually has solid numbers against Alvarez, holding him to just four hits in 18 at-bats. However, three of those four hits are home runs. Additionally, while Ryan has a WHIP of just 1.03 this season, he's coming off a rough start in which he allowed eight hits and four earned runs over six innings.
While Alvarez's recent performances are worrying, he had hit safely in 12 of his 13 games before his current four-game hitless streak. And though he only has four doubles in June, Alvarez has hit five home runs, and he has seven multi-hit games this month. That means there are various ways for him to break out of his slump and hit this over tonight.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.