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MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (7/5)

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We have a full slate of MLB action on Friday, July 5. However, it seems some sportsbooks did not get the memo, which makes my job of cooking up Same-Game Parlays (SGPs) a bit difficult, at least temporarily.

As I went to write these up, I noticed Caesars Sportsbook removed the entire MLB slate from their website and app. DraftKings Sportsbook also deleted multiple games. BetRivers and ESPN Bet usually wait until the morning to post lines, so that was not a surprise.

Because of this, I will make notes as needed where applicable. As usual, on Fridays, FanDuel offers a 30% boost on all qualifying (+400 or better) parlays for those interested.

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    Friday’s Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bets

    St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals

    What better way to follow up our celebration of America than to play an SGP featuring the Washington Nationals? And a Nationals game involving Patrick Corbin no less.

    While I love to attack Corbin, I also expect this game to be relatively low-scoring early. That includes a scoreless first inning, so I am taking the NRFI (No Run First Inning) at even money.

    Corbin has done well limiting damage in the first inning. He is 15-2 to the NRFI this year, while Sonny Gray is 13-2. Both offenses have been anemic in first innings recently. St. Louis has gone 10 straight games without scoring a first-inning run, while Washington has scored just once in their last 16 games.

    The Cardinals’ offense has produced a 78 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching over the last 30 days, so I think Corbin has a puncher's chance on Friday. I expect both he and Gray to post solid starts, so I am taking the under on the alternate total of 5.5 runs across the first five innings.

    My selection of St. Louis on the Moneyline has more to do with Gray being on the mound for the Redbirds than anything. Among 71 qualified pitchers, Gray ranks 12th in ERA, 10th in xERA and fifth in both FIP and xFIP.

    Washington has adjusted their lineup in recent days to give it a spark. They have called up prized prospect James Wood while releasing Eddie Rosario and optioning Joey Meneses to the minors. Even with the slight upgrade, however, I give Gray and the Cardinals the edge in this matchup.

    Corbin has recorded at least three strikeouts in eight straight starts and 14 out of 17 overall. He also has had three or more strikeouts in all seven of his home starts this season. This is a pretty low bar to clear and gets us to the +400 threshold and thus the 30% boost.

    If this is below the +400 mark by the time you try to play it, I would suggest incorporating a reduced strikeout total for Gray or perhaps lowering the F5 total to 4.5.

    Parlay Odds: +520 (including 30% Boost via FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

    I like the Arizona Diamondbacks to come through offensively in the early going in this game. Over the past 30 days, Arizona has a 125 wRC+ when facing a right-handed pitcher. And this does not factor in Thursday's game when the Diamondbacks tagged London Knack for three home runs in 4.1 innings. I expect them to take care of business against Randy Vasquez.  

    Vasquez has some brutal metrics. He has a 6.64 xERA, which incorporates his 13.9% strikeout rate and .338 opposing batting average allowed. And there has not been much bad luck involved. His xBA allowed is .334 is the worst among 381 pitchers with a qualifying amount of batted ball events, per Statcast.

    Vasquez has gone under this strikeout line in eight of his 11 starts this year. That includes a June 6 outing against Arizona where he fanned three hitters. What I find noteworthy about that start is Vasquez set career-highs with 6.2 innings pitched and 27 batters faced. Yet, he still could not strike out four Diamondbacks.  

    In his other 10 starts, he has averaged 4.5 innings and 20.4 batters faced. If he regresses towards those numbers, I think he will be hard-pressed to strike out four hitters on Friday. Arizona has the third-lowest strikeout rate (17.6%) versus right-handers over the last 30 days.

    One of the hitters who should have success on Friday is Christian Walker. Walker is the hottest hitter in the game right now. In his last five games, he has 13 hits, including five home runs. If Vasquez gives Walker anything to hit, he should make him pay for it.

    Parlay Odds: +445 (via Fanatics Sportsbook)

    Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies

    I could not build an SGP for this game anywhere else, so feel free to adjust as you see fit once the other books get back to business on Friday.

    The Kansas City Royals will have ace Cole Ragans on the hill when they face the Colorado Rockies. That should give them a decided edge against Kyle Freeland and Colorado.

    All of Ragans' earned run indicators sit at 3.4 or lower, including a 2.64 FIP. That is the sixth-lowest number among 71 qualified pitchers. The Rockies will not be the team to figure Ragans out.

    Over the past month, Colorado has the league's highest strikeout rate (28.0%) versus left-handed pitching. That number is rather steady even in Coors Field at 27.3%. I expect Ragans to lead the Royals to victory and record at least seven strikeouts in this game.

    It has been a while since I have seen a hitter with prop lines like those of Bobby Witt Jr. today. But it is hard to argue with any. Witt Jr. has nine hits over his last four games and gets to face Kyle Freeland.

    Witt Jr. is hitting .321 versus lefties this year. Freeland has allowed right-handed hitters to bat .311 since the beginning of last season. Given the matchup and the ballpark, I expect Witt Jr. to record multiple hits in this game.

    Freeland has not exactly been stingy when facing left-handed hitters either. Lefties are hitting .293 against Freeland since 2021. Vinnie Pasquantino enters Friday's game with multiple hits in five of his last eight games. I expect him to remain hot in this game. 

    Another aspect I like about Witt Jr. and Pasquantino is that they do not draw walks when facing left-handed pitchers. Each player has only walked twice against left-handers all season long. That should increase the likelihood of Witt Jr. registering multiple hits and Pasquantino recording multiple total bases in a very favorable matchup.

    Parlay Odds: +410 (via Fanatics Sportsbook)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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