An unfortunate missed-called strike turned a 2-1 day into a 1-2 outcome. That’s how the cookie crumbles with umpires in the MLB. Sometimes it works in your favor, other times you’re left wishing for robot umps. Let’s end the work week on a high note with three of my favorite player predictions for Friday, July 5.
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An unfortunate missed-called strike turned a 2-1 day into a 1-2 outcome. That’s how the cookie crumbles with umpires in the MLB. Sometimes it works in your favor, other times you’re left wishing for robot umps. Let’s end the work week on a high note with three of my favorite player predictions for Friday, July 5.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions
Sleeper Record: 123-77 (61.9%)
No one strikes out more against lefties than the Boston Red Sox. Their 28.6% K% against southpaws is 2.1% higher than Seattle in second. Trevor Rogers, who has a 7.47 K/9 this season, found six strikeouts against them just two days ago. Fifteen of the 20 left-handed starters to face them have gone over this line. On top of Rogers, that list includes names like Alex Wood, Martin Perez, Kyle Harrison, Cole Irvin and Andrew Abbott, who had 10 punchouts against them.
Nestor tends to find more strikeouts than those starters, so he should be able to get six here. Cortes has also pitched significantly better at home this season and has exceeded this line in seven of his nine home starts. He sports a 1.84 ERA at Yankee Stadium compared to a 5.63 ERA on the road. This is a small sample size but the Red Sox roster has a 30.6% K% across 36 plate appearances against Cortes.
A recent trend has the Blue Jays striking out a ton against righties. Over the past two weeks, they are seventh in K% (25.1%) against right-handed pitching. If we’re getting Luis Castillo at this palatable price, it’s worth the roll of the dice. Although he has not been performing at his absolute best, he can still find six or more punchouts on any given night. Castillo should be out there for six innings, so we’re only asking for a strikeout an inning. Is that too much to ask?
We faded the Braves yesterday with Logan Webb. It’s only right to do the same with Aaron Nola here. Atlanta has been horrendous at the plate these days, ranking fifth in K% (25.3%) and 26th in wRC+ (80) over the last 30 days against righties. As National League East foes with the Phillies, they have an extensive history facing Nola. He has generally found success when he faces them. Their roster has a combined 27.9% K% and .307 xwOBA across 341 combined plate appearances against Nola. Nola has gone over this line in nine of his last 14 starts.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
Tyler is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from him, follow @808Paperboi
