MLB Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Monday (4/28)
Only half of the MLB is active today. But there’s still plenty of value on the board to make a couple of same-game parlay (SGP) cards tonight. Check out the two same-game parlays I’ve constructed below and consider tailing them.
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Monday’s Best MLB Same Game Parlays
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
- Leg 1: Steven Kwan Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
- Leg 2: Gabriel Arias Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
- Leg 3: Gavin Williams Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-102)
The Minnesota Twins will send Bailey Ober to the mound tonight against the Cleveland Guardians. Ober has struck out 20.9% of batters and has allowed a .218 ISO and wOBA of .364 to his first 110 batters. In addition, Ober has allowed 36.7% of fly balls and 34.2% of line drives, while inducing just 26.6% of ground balls this season.
He’ll battle Steven Kwan and Gabriel Arias, who have put up consistently good numbers against right-handed pitchers this season. Kwan has delivered an ISO of .212 and wOBA of .455 with only 7.9% of strikeouts against righties. Meanwhile, Arias has earned a .218 ISO and wOBA of .363 against his first 60 righties this season.
Ober hasn’t even averaged 80 pitches in his starts yet. That’s how bad he’s been.
On the flip side. Gavin Williams will get the call for the Guardians. While Williams hasn’t been bad, he’s only struck out 23.9% of batters this season. Unfortunately for him, he’ll face a Twins lineup that has struck out only 19.1% of the time against righties this season. The projected lineup has six batters who have struck out no more than 18.8% of the time against righties. With a limited amount of targets, let’s back Williams to go under 5.5 strikeouts.
Parlay Odds: +804
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Leg 1: Andre Pallante Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+112)
- Leg 2: Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
- Leg 3: Brendan Donovan Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
The Cardinals will pitch Andre Pallante tonight. The right-hander has struck out only 14.3% of his first 112 batters this season. Pallante is a ground ball pitcher who should still have success. Just don’t expect high strikeouts. After all, he’s facing a Reds lineup that has just two batters who have struck out more than 22.5% of the time.
Conversely, Nick Martinez will get the call for the Reds. The right-hander has struggled drastically against left-handed hitters. He’s struck out 24.1% of righties but has also allowed a .275 ISO and wOBA of .364 to his first 54 lefties this season. Those lefties have hit more line drives than ground balls this season.
That said, Lars Nootbar has slugged a .171 ISO and wOBA of .381 with only 15.1% of strikeouts. Brendan Donovan is another lefty who has done well this season, hitting a .178 ISO and wOBA of .429 with only 7.5% of strikeouts against right-handed pitching. Both lefties have been putting the ball in play with ease against righties. Expect some hard contact against Martinez from those two.
Parlay Odds: +638