NBA Playoffs First Basket Scorer Odds & Picks: Monday (4/28)
The Cleveland Cavaliers will look to sweep the Miami Heat in their first-round series tonight. Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets hope to tie up the series at two apiece in tonight’s Western Conference showdown.
I’ve got a couple of first-basket bets you’ll want to consider for tonight’s two games.
Follow along and make sure to check out our NBA First Basket Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for help identifying all of today’s best prop bets.
Monday’s Best NBA First Basket Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Who will score the first basket in today’s NBA games? We compare historical first-basket stats to prop bet odds to help identify today’s best bets. View first-basket odds across sportsbooks here.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat
The Cleveland Cavaliers have earned the first possession in two of the first three games of this series. Bam Adebayo was the tip-off man for most of the season. However, the Heat have relied on Kel’el Ware against Jarrett Allen in each tip-off this series.
Both teams are good at getting the first possession and scoring. However, Allen won the opening tip in 75% of games this season. He’s won three out of every four tips this year. If he wins tonight against Ware, he’ll have won three of the first four opening tips in the playoffs.
This season, the Heat allowed the first basket to point guards 34% of the time. That was easily the highest rate allowed to point guards this season, in front of Boston, which allowed the first basket to go to point guards 29% of the time.
That said, Darius Garland has scored the first basket just once in 57 starts. He’s added the first basket in only 2% of games played this season. It’s unlikely Garland takes the first basket. Therefore, the shooting guard and power forward for the Cavaliers have the best chance.
Donovan Mitchell has added the team’s first basket in 40% of games and has added the team’s first field goal attempt in 33% of games. That’s more like it. Roll with Mitchell at +490.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell (+490)
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors and Draymond Green have gained the first possession in two of the first three games of the series. This is pretty crazy, especially since Green won the tip in only 29% of his 28 tip-offs in the regular season.
Meanwhile, Alperen Sengun won the tip in 49% of games and helped the Rockets score first 49% of the time. Houston scored the first basket just 1% more than the Warriors in the regular season. Meanwhile, Sengun easily added more opening tips than Green this season. Sengun has won the tip in nearly 50% of games this season. Therefore, after losing two and winning one, the probability is on Sengun’s side to win the tip tonight.
Meanwhile, the Warriors have allowed the first basket to power forwards and small forwards 23% each. Amen Thompson scored the first basket for the Rockets in Game 2 and got to the foul line first in Game 1 for the Rockets. He only added two first baskets this season, but he has a terrific matchup against the Warriors in this series. Let’s ride with Thompson to score first tonight.
Pick: Amen Thompson (+800)