New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens Odds & Game Pick

by Raju Byfield |
Nov 02, 2019

The New England Patriots have ridden one of the easiest schedules in the league to a perfect 8-0 record. Their first tough test of the season comes this week against a Baltimore Ravens team that has been much better than expected. Lamar Jackson has joined Patrick Mahomes in leading an AFC quarterback revolution of sorts, as three of the most talented and exciting quarterbacks now reside outside of the NFC. Brady vs. Jackson is sure to be a marquee matchup until the Patriots quarterback finally decides to hang up his cleats, and this week is no different. The NFL agrees as this game got the prime time slot on Sunday night. In what should be a true litmus test for both teams, this battle could have postseason ramifications. The early action has pushed the point spread to -3 from its open of -4 on New England. Let's dig in.

Special Offer: Bet $1 and win $100 if New England Patriots score a point this week >>

Details

Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened at -4 on the New England Patriots. The over/under total opened at 44.5 points. The point spread has seen a slight decrease to -3. The over/under total has seen a minuscule increase to 45 points.
Current Line: New England -3
O/U: 45
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
Start Time: 8:20 PM EST, Sunday, November 3rd
Last Meeting: New England defeated Baltimore 30-23 - December 12, 2016

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Patriots at Ravens >>

Overview

Everyone knew that the New England Patriots had a cupcake schedule with no tough tests until Week 9 of the 2019 season. Week 9 is here, and the Patriots are traveling to Baltimore, Maryland to face one of the most impressive teams in the league. The Patriots are one of the two remaining undefeated teams, but much like what we have seen with the San Francisco 49ers, their strength of schedule, or lack of it, has been called into question. The Patriots have seen some disturbing turnover at the wide receiver position, most recently releasing Josh Gordon from injured reserve early on Thursday. A team that looked set to boast one of the most talented and dynamic wide receiver trios of all time now has Julian Edelman, Mohamed Sanu, and Phillip Dorsett as their top three receivers. The Patriots’ schedule will see a significant increase in difficulty starting this week. While bets have started to pour in on the Patriots going undefeated this season, they still have Baltimore this week and have four consecutive tough matchups coming out of their Week 10 bye. The Patriots should get to 11 wins this season, with 14 a distinct possibility.

Baltimore has been one of the most impressive teams in the NFL this season. Lamar Jackson has quieted all of his doubters and has proved that, much like he showed in college at Louisville, that he is much more than just one of the most electric running quarterbacks in NFL history. Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews provide the young signal-caller with two near-elite weapons who have to be accounted for by opposing defenses. They make loading up to stop the run game or using a constant spy an impractical task. The Ravens sit at 5-2 on the season and look like an easy bet to win the AFC North. They appear to have at least six more wins on the schedule and will be looking to come out of their Week 9 bye with an upset victory of the defending NFL Champions.

Trends

The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight contests between these two teams.
The underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight contests between these two teams.
Over is 4-1 in the last five contests between these two teams.
Over is 4-0 in the last four contests between these two teams played in Baltimore.
New England is 6-2 ATS on the season.
New England is 3-1 ATS on the road this season.
Baltimore is 2-5 ATS on the season.
Baltimore is 0-3 ATS at home this season.
New England is 5-1 ATS in their last six November contests.
New England is 5-1 ATS in their last six road contests.
New England is 7-2 ATS in their last nine contests against the AFC.
New England is 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests against teams with winning records.
Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests following a straight up win.
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests.
Baltimore is 0-6 ATS in their last six home contests.
Baltimore is 0-4 ATS in their last four contests against the AFC.
Under is 5-1 in New England's last six contests against the AFC.
Under is 4-1 in New England's last five contests.
Under is 4-1 in New England's last five November contests.
Under is 4-1 in New England's last five contests following a straight up win.
Over is 4-1 in Baltimore's last five contests against the AFC.
Under is 8-3 in Baltimore's last 11 contests following a bye.
Under is 7-3 in Baltimore's last 10 November contests.

Prop Bets

Baltimore +10/over 38.5 (-110)
With no player props in this contest worth laying the heavy juice on, the teasers have increased appeal. The over/under for this contest was set at a much lower number than one would expect from two explosive offenses. This suggests that Vegas has this contest pegged to be in the 40 to 44 point range. With the current over/under total sitting at 45 points, and 44.5 points at PointsBet, the over 38.5 point offering looks very attractive. Being able to combine that total with +10 on Baltimore almost seems too good to be true. You still have to lay ten cents juice to get in on this action, but the win probability makes it well worth it. This could be a contest to wait to lay action on as the public will undoubtedly be slamming New England all throughout the weekend, and up until game time.

Bottom Line

The full-game spread, which now sits at -3, offers little value on either side. The trends suggest that New England has been a cover machine recently, but that has as much to do with the opponents they have faced as his has to do with their own high-level play. The Ravens have a good chance to win this game outright, making the three-point cushion a welcomed bonus. New England has yet to face a team with the talent and explosiveness of the Ravens and will be in for a tough test. The opening line and its resulting movement tells us all we need to know about what the sharps think of this contest. Despite 70 percent of the action coming in on the Patriots, this line has still dipped from -4 to -3. This suggests the higher percentage of dollar value has come in on the Ravens. Vegas has projected this to be a very tight contest, with the Ravens having a chance to win it all. When line shading is taken into account, the true opening line for this contest could very well have been between -1 and -3. -4 was posted to encourage action on the Patriots. Follow the sharps and fade the public. Baltimore is the play.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens +3

Deposit $50 at PointsBet and get a free $100 bonus! >>

Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 9

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-4)
Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills (-10.5)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+3.5)
Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1)
Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (+4)
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+7)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.

Navigate