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NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Week 1)

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Introducing the Week 1 edition of the NFL Betting Primer, proudly brought to you by BettingPros.com. I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL Sunday main slate.

We are off to a hot start after a strong Thursday Night Football (spread, total, player props 3-1), so let’s roll these winnings into Sunday.

Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, live betting tips, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive same-game parlays (SGP).

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks.

Below you will find my top picks for Week 1. Note that the Sunday Night Football matchup will have its own dedicated article.

Because let's be honest...it deserves one.

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NFL Week 1 Betting Primer (2025)

Top Favorites:

  • Broncos -8.5

Top Underdogs:

  • Panthers +3.5
  • Giants +6.5

Top Totals:

  • LAR/HOU under 43.5
  • PIT/NYJ under 38

Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)

Market snapshot:

Erickson's pick: Patriots -2.5 lean + Over 43.5 lean

Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5) 

Why:

  • Explosive rookie RB additions on both sides add chunk-play upside
    • The Raiders’ offense is expected to be up-tempo with Chip Kelly as OC.
  • Pats D improved, but CB health (Christian Gonzalez, hamstring) is out
  • Raiders' secondary is bottom-ranked entering the year per PFF.
    • Maxx Crosby is the primary pass-rush threat.
  • Foxboro opener + Mike Vrabel bump favors NE playing at home.

Trends

Sides:

  • The Patriots have lost 10 of their last 12 games at Gillette Stadium.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 19 games at Gillette Stadium.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 16 games.
  • The Patriots have lost 15 of their last 19 games.
  • The Patriots have lost 15 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Raiders have lost each of their last 11 games as underdogs.
  • The Raiders are 15-11-1 ATS over their last 27 games.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in 11 of their last 21 games.
  • The Raiders have lost 11 of their last 13 games.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in seven of their last 12 road games.
  • The Raiders have lost 12 of their last 16 road games.
  • The Raiders have lost six of their last seven road games.
  • In 11 of the Raiders' last 13 games, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.

Totals:

  • Fifteen of the last 22 Patriots games have gone OVER the projected game total.
  • Ten of the Patriots' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Patriots' defense allowed 300-plus yards in 12 out of 16 games in 2024.
    • NE had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 in 2023.
  • The Patriots went 11-6 toward the OVER in 2024.
  • They finished 7-1 toward the OVER at home (45.3 PPG)
  • Each of the Patriots' last six home games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Raiders' last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Sixteen of the Raiders' last 27 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
    • 19-14 toward the under.
  • Eight of the Raiders' last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Raiders' last nine games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Two head coaches are making their debut appearances with new teams. Two super-explosive RBs added to both offenses. You guys know I'm a Patriots fan... so naturally I can sometimes be slightly biased toward them in the W-L column (although I try to suppress my fandom as best I can).

But if this isn't a spot for a sneaky over, then I don't know what is. The Patriots are on a streak of six straight overs from last season. Now, I want to be mindful and not overweigh trends from last year's teams because of the roster changes that have occurred with both teams.

I think with both offenses improving during the offseason, we could see some fireworks.

The Raiders’ defense looks like it could be a sieve with a bottom-ranked secondary and a defensive line that has Maxx Crosby and more question marks. OC Josh McDaniels (former HC of the Raiders) knows he has to stop Crosby to limit the Raiders’ defensive effectiveness.

Ultimately, even as a homer, I think the Pats win. They have been so bad at home that I think Mike Vrabel’s coaching bump results in immediate success for Week 1.

Keep in mind that the Patriots have never been favored in the Drake Maye era. They had a brutal schedule last season, which contributed to their loss of many games. That streak will end after Sunday. Fans finally have something to cheer for at Gillette Stadium.

I like the Pats to cover (-2.5) and for the total to go over the total at 43.5 points. Although I think my best bet is actually on the Patriots to cover as opposed to the game total, which was my initial lean. Again, with new HCs, we need to make sure we are understanding these trends correctly. It's probably more likely that with an improved defense, the Patriots will have more games go under than over in 2025. Conversely, they have been terrible at home, which should also improve with Vrabel calling the shots. But the Gonzalez injury (trending to not play) opens the door for us to see more blown coverages in DC Terrell Williams’ debut as the Patriots’ defensive play caller.

If LV jumps out early, Patriots live ML at +150 or better is a strong angle to take. Might also consider waiting until we get concrete news about Gonzalez. That might shift money toward the Raiders and give New England a better number before kick off.

Prop Angles:

The Patriots want to lean on rookie RB TreyVeon Henderson as a receiver out of the backfield. There’s heavy juice on his receptions going over 2.5 (-158) because he is going to see targets. For a better payout, just take the over on his receiving yards (or dabble in longest rush/reception, etc.). Bet on Henderson’s explosive skill set being on full display.

The Raiders allowed the 4th-most yards to TE in Patrick Graham’s defense in 2024. Hunter Henry is in a great spot to hit all kinds of overs. He has at least 3.5 receptions in 8 of his last 10 games. I love his TD odds more than anything.

Positive touchdown regression, anyone?

With Drake Maye under center in nine games last year, Henry averaged 8.8 PPG and was on pace for 85 catches, 850 yards.

If Maye makes a leap, Henry comes with him (especially in the red zone). The Patriots TE has averaged nearly 5 TDs/year since joining the Pats. He has a long history of red-zone usage.

Let's not forget that Henry's best fantasy season came back in 2021 when Josh McDaniels was the Patriots' OC: nine receiving TDs and top-3 in total red-zone targets among TEs.

Erickson's Props:

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)

Market snapshot:


Erickson's pick: Over 47.5

Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5) 

Why:

  • Default stance: keep betting Bengals overs until proven otherwise.
  • Bengals’ offense is healthy, with fast-start potential in 2025 after playing starters in the preseason.
  • Browns’ offense is capable of a volume spike if Joe Flacco is forced into a dropback-heavy game.
    • The 2024 Colts with Joe Flacco: 5-2 O/U (last five games 4-1).
  • Divisional matchup, but total points ceiling too high to fade if pace picks up.

Trends

Sides:

  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in 15 of their last 19 games.
  • The Browns have lost 16 of their last 19 games.
  • The Browns have scored last in each of their last 10 home games.
  • The Browns are 5-4 over their last nine games as home underdogs.
  • The Browns have covered the spread in eight of their last 14 home games.
  • Cleveland is 10-7 on the Moneyline at home.
  • The Browns have won five of their last eight home games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Browns have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 home games against teams with winning records.
  • The Browns have scored last in 15 of their last 17 games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in 12 of the Browns’ last 13 games.
  • In 14 of the Browns’ last 15 games, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in each of the last five games between the Bengals and Browns.
  • The Bengals have covered the spread in their last four of their last five games to end 2024 (winners of five straight).
  • The Bengals have covered the spread in seven of their last nine road games.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games against AFC North opponents.
  • Cincy is 17-8 ATS on the road.
  • The Bengals are 12-5 as road favorites ATS.
  • The Bengals have scored first in nine straight road games.
  • The Bengals have covered the spread in 12 of their last 13 games against teams with losing records.

Totals:

  • The Browns went 4-3 toward the over in their last seven games with Jameis Winston as their starting quarterback. He was 2-1 toward the over on the road.
  • Dorian Thompson-Robinson started Weeks 16 and 17, and both Browns totals have gone under the total. Week 18, the game went over.
  • Four of the Browns' last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Browns’ last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Browns' last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Cleveland finished under their team total in every game in 2024 (except for Week 8, Week 12, and Week 13 – two of which were divisional home matchups).
  • The 2024 Browns finished 3-5 toward the over at home (under 39.5 points per game).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 12-5 against the under at home.
  • Eleven of the Bengals' last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Bengals' last 18 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Sixteen of the Bengals' last 22 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bengals’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the six Bengals' games that have gone under the total (in 2024) were on the road.
  • Each of the Bengals’ last four season openers against AFC North opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

This game has to go over, right? The Bengals’ offense looks unstoppable, and they know they need to score 30-plus PPG to stand a chance of winning their weekly matchups. And unlike previous seasons, when the Bengals started extremely slow after resting their starters in the preseason, they should start much faster in 2025.

And the Cleveland Browns, well, they aren't afraid to drop back to throw 40-plus times with Joe Flacco under center (top-4 in pass attempts over the last two seasons). I'm going to fade the sides in a divisional matchup (especially with a road favorite and the Browns as home underdogs catching 5-plus points) and just bet on these two offenses (or against the Bengals defense). The line has been bet up to 47.5 points after opening at 45.5.

And I do find it interesting that both teams have performed well in this betting situation (Bengals as road favorites, Browns as home underdogs, etc.). And the Browns performed their best offensively last season in a home game against their division foes. Only one game failed to go over.

To be honest, I really liked the total more when it was closer to 45.5 points. Note that both Browns-Bengals games went under last season.

However, Dorian Thompson Robinson played in both games (one start and one due to a mid-game Deshaun Watson injury). Might be a better game overall for props (David Njoku smash game incoming) with the value on the line seemingly gone.

Or the live bet opportunity to be on the Browns catching even more points, as I do fully expect the Bengals to come out firing and aggressive. Cincy’s best chance defensively is to force the Browns to throw early and often, given Flacco’s propensity to turn the ball over. Those turnover odds increase with every additional drop back he takes.

Prop Angles:

David Njoku COOKED Cincy last season (60-plus yards in both contests). And with Joe Flacco under center, I expect the Browns TE to be his go-to target. Let's not forget the heater Njoku went on with Flacco back in 2023 (five games): 22% target share (9 targets per game) and a 29% target rate per route run.

I'd expect Njoku to remain a staple in the offense under new OC Tommy Rees, who served as the pass game specialist & tight ends coach for the Browns last season. Njoku finished third in expected points, third in targets per game (8.5), and second in end-zone targets (11) among TEs.

Love his TD odds as well at more than 2-1 in what should be a high-scoring affair.

Keep in mind that Njoku has heavy juice on his receptions prop at 4.5. Last season, in games where Njoku had at least five catches, he was also going over his yardage prop more often than not.

Erickson's Props:

Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)

Market snapshot:

Erickson's pick: Panthers +3.5 (Best Bet) & Moneyline Sprinkle + Under 46.5 lean (not official)

Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5) 

Why:

  • Week 1 volatility + short travel = home-field advantage overrated
  • Panthers' defense improved with offseason additions + DL Derrick Brown returning
  • Carolina’s offense is trending upward from a strong finish last season
    • Albeit Week 1 does have the Panthers without OT Ikem Ekwonu (appendectomy), Jalen Coker (IR), and Adam Thielen (traded).
  • Jaguars’ defense remains exploitable; matchup far closer to a coin flip than the market suggests
  • Bryce Young + Dave Canales continuity entering Year 2 vs the new-look Jaguars offense under Liam Coen
  • Treat it closer as a coin-flip game ?' take the plus-money

Trends

Sides:

  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five Week 1 home games.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games following a loss.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in six of their last nine games.
  • The Jaguars have lost 18 of their last 23 games.
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 23 games.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-5 overall as a favorite, dating back to 2023.
  • ATS, they are 8-3 as a home underdog and 6-6 on the Moneyline.
  • In nine of the Jaguars' last 11 games, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
  • The Panthers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the Panthers' last eight games.
  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with winning records.
  • The Panthers have not covered the spread in 12 of their last 19 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 20 of their last 27 games.

Totals:

  • Each of the Panthers’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Panthers’ last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Panthers’ last 27 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Panthers’ last 16 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Jaguars' last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Jaguars’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars finished 3-4 toward the over at home (Under 44.4 points per game) in 2024.

Overall

The Panthers' defense has nowhere to go but up after last year, with the additions they have made this offseason (also the return of DT Derrick brown). The offense looked primed to carry over last year's strong finish against a very subpar Jaguars defense.

Besides the Jaguars playing at home (keep in mind that Carolina to Jacksonville is hardly a far trip)…why are the Jags 3.5-point favorites? On paper, I think these teams are closer to an even playing field.

Now it’s unfortunate for Carolina that Ikem Ekwonu won't play, and the team is missing some of its WRs. It’s why I'd shy away from the game total going over. And as bad as these defenses have been/were in 2024, it’s possible they aren't as bad in Week 1 compared to last season.

Both OLs could also just be extremely underwhelming, not allowing for consistent offensive production/sustained drives from either side.

Even so, I’d rather bet on the continuity of Bryce Young and Dave Canales entering Year 2...versus the new shiny toy with Trevor Lawrence and Liam Coen. Lawrence is 8-13-0 (38.1%) as a favored QB – the second-worst ATS record for a starting QB in the AFC.

The Panthers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs. Expect the strong finish to last season to result in a fast start for the Cardiac Cats. Even if the offensive production isn’t as flashy, I think the Panthers come away with an upset victory on the road.

The overall OL downgrade from Tampa Bay to Jacksonville could be why the Jags’ offensive production doesn’t mirror the 2024 Bucs offensive production against Carolina.

Prop Angles:

Dyami Brown ended last season on a high note with the Commanders, earning him a solid contract with the Jaguars in free agency. But I’m not confident that he will necessarily see a boatload of volume in Week 1. He has never been a strong target earner at any point in his NFL career (4-plus targets in just 36% of games since 2023).

If he is just filling that “sacrificial” WR X role on the perimeter, he might just log a bunch of cardio on Sunday. Jags have so many other key pieces of the offense that I think will take priority over Brown.

The Panthers’ coaching staff has been singing the praises of Ja’Tavion Sanders all offseason. The second-year TE looks poised to take a larger role in 2025, especially with the Panthers looking for additional pass-catchers. I think this is an easy bet on volume, finding Sanders in this matchup as one of Bryce Young’s few returning targets from last season. Tight end teammate Tommy Tremble is expected to play, but he has missed most of the entire offseason with a back injury.

Part of why Young popped last season was because he was using his legs. The Panthers QB rushed for over 13.5 yards in six of his final eight games. Expect that to continue in Week 1.

Erickson's Props:

Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)

Market snapshot:

Erickson's pick: Colts ML (-110) + lean toward over 46.5

Confidence: ★★ (2 out of 5) 

Why:

  • True four-outcome game: either team could blow out or grind out a defensive slugfest. It could be fun or totally gross. 
  • Focus on tail scenarios = ladder Jaylen Waddle
  • Colts win when favored (10-2 SU since 2023); Dolphins historically poor underdogs (16 losses in last 18)
  • The market backs the Colts slightly; follow the implied confidence on their home-field advantage
  • Tua + top 3 playmakers healthy = Miami offense dynamic again
  • Indy OL edge vs Miami's questionable coverage unit; Colts secondary also exploitable

Trends

Sides

  • The Colts have lost each of their last five Week 1 home games.
  • The favorites have won 24 of the Colts' last 29 games.
  • The Colts are 4-3 ATS as favorites this season
  • The Colts are 10-2 as favorites straight up since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in 10 of their last 17 games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in 9 of their last 15 games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in 9 of their last 12 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in 16 of their last 19 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in their last six of seven road games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 12 of their last 20 games.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in 11 of its last 21 games.
  • The Dolphins have won the first half in nine of their last 12 games.
  • The Dolphins have lost 13 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 16 of their last 18 games as underdogs.
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime.
    • That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted to their old ways during their three-game losing streak.
    • In their Week 5 and Week 7 wins against the Patriots and Colts, they came back from first-half deficits.
    • They did not come back against the Packers on Thanksgiving Night or against the Texans in Week 15.
  • Miami is sub-25% ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has gone 3-11 overall since 2023. They are 5-12 as an underdog in their last 17 applicable games.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games as road underdogs.

Totals

  • Each of the Colts' last five games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the last 13 Colts' games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • With Joe Flacco in 2024: 5-2 O/U (last five games 4-1).
  • Twelve of the Colts' last 18 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the Colts’ last six games against AFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Dolphins’ last 10 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Dolphins finished 2024 6-3 toward the OVER with Tua Tagovailoa for the last nine weeks.
  • Without their starting QB, the Dolphins went 2-6 O/U.
  • Thirteen of the Dolphins’ last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

This game has a vast array of outcomes. Shootout, blow-out, offensive and/or defensive struggle, etc. Things could get wild here, with both coaches entering the year on the hot seat; I don’t think you’ll see these offenses/teams take anything for granted. Given that both coaches are offensive-minded, I expect them to try to impose their will as such.

Therefore, the best way to bet on this game is based on a high-end range of offensive outcomes with the largest payouts.

Hello Jaylen Waddle ladders. Keep in mind that both De’Von Achane and Tyreek Hill have been dealing with injuries during the preseason.

That being said, I still think the trends for this game are very telling.

TLDR version: The Colts win when they are favorites, and the Dolphins don't win when they are underdogs. Considering these trends are also attached to the respective HCs, I think there’s merit to buying into some of this.

“Trust” in the market backing the Colts as a slight home favorite (or just take them on the money line).

Daniel Jones can do enough with all the offensive talent at his disposal to take advantage of a very suspect Dolphins' secondary that went through a lot of roster turnover.

As for the total, I also lean toward the over. Miami's defense is a pass funnel (stronger defensive line but poor coverage players), putting the Colts in a position to score through the air.

The Dolphins offense always plays better with Tua Tagovailoa under center, and his top three explosive playmakers (Waddle, De'Von Achane, and Tyreek Hill) should all be available even if they aren’t quite 100%.

Take the over and for the Colts to win a close one. But expect this game to have chaos, making it far from my most confident wager this weekend.

Keep in mind that Miami had to place its starting kicker on IR, signing Riley Patterson as the replacement. If we are looking to win on the margins in a what projects like a tight game, I'll take the Colts at home with the superior HC/OL/offensive play caller.

The Colts are 10-2 as favorites straight up since the start of 2023. The Dolphins have lost 16 of their last 18 games as underdogs, and they’ve failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games as road underdogs.

Prop Angles:

Under DC Anthony Weaver, the Dolphins allowed 70-plus receiving yards per game to TEs (9/10 opposing TEs going OVER their closing line). I don’t expect the Colts to slow-play their top rookie because it’s Week 1. Tyler Warren will be peppered with underneath targets and flex his YAC ability with strong receiving totals in Week 1.

Waddle saw nine-plus targets in three of his final four games played at the end of 2024 (nearly averaged 100 yards per game in last three starts with Tua). When healthy, the Dolphins’ WR has shown a tremendous weekly ceiling.

Erickson's Props:

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)

Market snapshot:

Erickson's pick: Under 37.5 (Best Angle)

Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

Why:

  • Steelers games tend to skew UNDER
  • Jets' offense still gelling; Aaron Rodgers + Justin Fields in a transitional setup (injury on OL)
  • Pittsburgh defense understands Fields' tendencies - the only risk is broken plays on QB scrambles.
  • Some DL injuries for the Steelers
  • Injuries to the Jets’ OL + Rodgers’ desire to play a slower pace reduce the scoring ceiling
  • One of these teams ended last year on a 5-game losing streak (1-4 ATS). Spoiler, it wasn’t the Jets.
  • If live lines open with fast scoring on a big play, attack alternate UNDERs at 42.5+. The points in this game aren’t meant to last. They will come as a result of short fields and turnovers, etc.

Trends

Sides:

  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games against teams with winning records.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven home games.
  • The Jets have lost 11 of their 14 games.
  • The Jets finished last season 0-6 as underdogs.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 21 of their last 28 games. They finished 5-12 ATS last season.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games.
  • The Steelers have won 13 of their last 22 games.
  • The Steelers have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games.
  • The Steelers are 15-11 ATS on the road (60%)
  • The Steelers are 8-9 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
  • As road favorites, the Steelers are 5-4 ATS.

Totals:

  • Sixteen of the Jets’ last 28 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • At home, the Jets finished 5-4 O/U in 2024.
  • Six of the Jets' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line (Rodgers at QB).
  • The Steelers are 10-8 toward the under in 2024. 2-6 O/U at home this season (39.6 points per game).
  • Six of the Steelers' last eight road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Steelers’ last five games went UNDER the total points line.

Overall 

I actually hate this game for betting sides purposes, but if there's an edge, it's on the UNDER. This is the lowest total on the slate for good reason, yet I still want to lean that direction.

Pittsburgh knows Justin Fields' tendencies, and the matchup only breaks if Fields rips off multiple long runs. The Steelers' secondary, led by Joey Porter Jr., matches up well against Garrett Wilson, while the Jets counter with Sauce Gardner on DK Metcalf, giving both passing attacks tough sledding.

The Jets' offensive line will be without Alijah Vera-Tucker, further complicating their plan to "run the damn ball." I think they will continue to do it, whether it is inefficient or not. 

On the other side, Pittsburgh's defensive front is also banged up - missing key contributors like Derrick Harmon, Keeanu Benton, and possibly Cam Heyward - but I still expect Aaron Rodgers to slow the pace offensively. Fields' sack tendency kills drives and keeps possessions short, limiting opportunities to score for Gang Green.

The under also benefits from regression: both teams enter Week 1 riding some recent OVER streaks (Steelers’ road over streak, not overall), making this a prime candidate for the trend to flip.

New Jets head coach Aaron Glenn brings an aggressive defensive identity, deploying man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL last year (47.7%) with Detroit. The Jets thrived in man coverage themselves, holding opposing QBs to an 85.8 passer rating (4th-lowest) and a 39.2% success rate (5th-lowest) in 2024 (Next Gen Stats). 

Rodgers averaged the 5th-quickest time-to-throw in the NFL last season (2.69s) but posted the 4th-lowest completion percentage and 2nd-most interceptions on throws under 2.5 seconds. Glenn's aggressive man scheme historically disrupts quick passing concepts - an important matchup advantage.

Bet the under, and maybe watch a different game Sunday.

Prop Angles:

Justin Fields attempted more than 27.5 passes just twice in six starts last season. The Jets want to run the football, and I think that nukes Fields’ high-end passing attempts. Also consider that even if he drops back to throw, his propensity to take sacks or scramble results in passing plays that don’t return a pass attempt in the box score.

Fields averaged just 110.6 passing yards per game last season.

DK Metcalf beat the over for 4.5 receptions in just 3 of 14 games (21%) last season. And that was in one of the pass-happy offenses in the NFL.

Fade Arthur Smith’s WR1 into oblivion against one of the best CBs in the NFL. Versus New York in 2024, Metcalf was targeted nine times and came away with just four catches for 66 yards.

Erickson's Props:

Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)

Market snapshot:

Erickson's pick: Cardinals -6.5 + Live Bet Cardinals on the ML. 

Confidence: ★★ (2 out of 5)

Why:

  • Cardinals likely win outright, but Week 1 volatility + Kyler Murray's inconsistency make heavy road favorites feel risky
  • Public expected to pile on ARI ?' presents some value with Saints at home +6.5
  • Saints' home-field edge is limited, but dog trends still lean their way (although not super convincing)
  • Expect Cardinals offense to control pace via run game vs. Saints' PFF 32nd-ranked DL (potentially missing Chase Young)
  • Kyler tends to start seasons hot, but this number could be too inflated

Trends

Sides:

  • The home team has covered the spread in seven of the Saints’ last 10 games.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 13 games.
  • The Saints have lost 12 of their last 15 games.
  • The Saints are 5-8 ATS as home underdogs (9-17 on the money line as underdogs)
  • As home underdogs, the Saints are 3-10 straight up. Woof.
  • The Cardinals have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as road favorites.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 8 of their last 11 games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 road games.
  • Per Next Gen Stats, Arizona didn’t have back-to-back wins in 46 games, with its last winning streak coming in Weeks 11-13 in 2021.
    • A new streak started in 2024, with them winning their last four games.
    • They dropped three games in a row (two to the Seahawks) after a strong start. And that’s despite them trailing in all contests to start the games (except their last two losses when they opened with leads).
    • They lost in Week 16 and Week 17 after winning in Week 15.
    • They ended the season in Week 18 with a win.

Totals:

  • Five of the Saints' last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The 2024 Saints finished 5-5 toward the over at home (under 46 points per game).
  • Five of the Cardinals' last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Cardinals' last 15 Sunday home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Cardinals have been an UNDER machine on the road since the start of 2023 (5-10-1).
  • However, 2024 was a different story. The Cardinals’ 2024 road games totaled 52, 57, 47, 55, and 66 points.
  • Although three of their last five road games have been unders.
  • They finished “only” 3-4-1 toward the over on the road, but four points are the difference between a 6-2 record toward the over.
  • Each of the Cardinals’ last four games as favorites has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall

This matchup sets up as one of the trickier Week 1 bets. On paper, the Cardinals should handle business against a Saints team starting rookie QB Spencer Rattler. Arizona's defense is improved, its run game projects well, and Kyler Murray historically opens seasons fast.

However, heavy road favorites in Week 1 are historically volatile, especially when public money pushes numbers higher than fair value. While I believe Arizona wins, grabbing the Saints +6.5 feels like the smarter bet if this climbs to +7 or better.

The Saints' home-field advantage has largely evaporated (just 3-10 SU as home dogs), but there's still situational value backing them at a number approaching a touchdown. Chase Young's calf injury further weakens an already porous Saints defensive front, which could lead to explosive Cardinals rushing production.

Despite that, Arizona hasn't thrived ATS as road favorites (0-4 streak) and hasn't historically strung together multi-game winning streaks under Kyler. But overall, last season, they were pretty solid ATS.

While the Cardinals' improved roster is enticing, their volatility, paired with the Saints' perception of being terrible by the market, makes it feel like a rat line. It is Spencer Rattler after all, drawing the start for the Saints.

But I’m a believer in the Cardinals for 2025 (especially first half), and I see no reason to start betting on a vastly inferior Saints team until proven otherwise. Feels gross, but I think the Birds get it done here. And take care of business.

If you don’t want to bet the spread, take a shot on a fun Cardinals futures bet on ESPN Bet. +1100 for the Red Birds to start 5-0. Favorable schedule to start the year.

Prop Angles:

We only get so many healthy weeks of James Conner. Don’t miss out on an amazing matchup versus a terrible defensive line. Conner rushed for 90-plus rushing yards in his last three healthy games of 2024. He rushed for at least 84.5 rushing yards in 50% of his games last season.

Conner is averaging 73.6 rushing yards per game since the start of the 2023 season.

Two words: War. Daddy.

Erickson's Props:

New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)

Market snapshot: 

Erickson's pick: Giants +6 (Best Bet) & ML Sprinkle

Confidence: ★★★★★ (5 out of 5)

Why:

  • The Giants' defensive front creates a major mismatch vs. the Commanders' shaky offensive line that will likely be without Sam Cosmi
  • Washington's defense remains exploitable
  • Terry McLaurin's conditioning unclear after extended holdout
  • Regression flags flashing hard for the Commanders’ season-long; expect early-season struggles
  • Divisional matchup historically tight ?' 5-point margin or less in last season's two meetings between Commanders/Giants
  • In a lower-scoring divisional matchup, I want to be on the side of the underdog.

Trends

Sides

  • The New York Giants are 13-11 ATS on the road.
  • The Giants have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 games.
  • The Giants have lost 14 of their last 18 road games.
  • The Giants are 8-16 ATS as road underdogs.
  • Opponents have scored first in seven of the Giants' last eight road games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in seven of the Giants’ last 13 games.
  • New York is 6-6 ATS in their last 12 divisional matchups.
  • The Giants have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 games.
  • The Giants are 11-14 ATS over their last 25 games.
  • In 11 of the Giants' last 12 games, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
  • In 7 of the Giants' last nine games, the first score has been an opponent touchdown.
  • The Commanders have won the first half in 11 of their last 18 games
  • The Commanders have scored first in 10 of their last 16 games.
  • The Commanders are 12-7 ATS in their last 19 games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 18 games as favorites.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games against teams with losing records (73%).
  • The Commanders have lost eight of their last 16 home games.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in seven of their last 12 games.

Totals

  • Eight of the Giants’ last nine season openers have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Giants’ last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Giants are 11-15 toward the over in their last 26 games.
  • New York has scored 20-plus points in 10 of their last 23 games.
  • Twelve of the Commanders' last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 8-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 20-5 toward the OVER.
  • The 2024 Commanders were 6-3 O/U at home, averaging over 51.5 points per game.
  • Each of the Commanders' last five home games has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall

This is one of my favorite spots of Week 1. Give me Big Blue +6 and a moneyline sprinkle (+225).

The Giants' defensive line is going to cause serious problems for Washington's OL, forcing Jayden Daniels into some uncomfortable situations.

On the other side, Washington's defense remains a liability - bottom-third metrics across coverage and explosive play rates last year - and their secondary hasn't improved enough to flip the matchup. 

Russell Wilson ripped up the Commanders’ defense last season on the road with the Steelers, tossing 3 TD in a win as underdogs.

McLaurin's limited offseason and conditioning uncertainty add another layer of risk for Washington’s offense, especially if the Commanders fall behind. Regression indicators across the board also point toward early struggles for Washington following overperformance in close games and on 4th down conversions last year.

The Giants' roster has improved since 2024, and they've been competitive against Washington historically, with both matchups last year decided by 5 points or fewer. If the game script trends toward a grind, New York's pass rush and defensive efficiency give them a clear path to cover and potentially win outright.

Giants +6 and ML sprinkle. 5-star best bet.

Prop Angles:

Russell Wilson LOVES himself a good RB check-down pass. Tyrone Tracy is the lead back for the Giants (former WR-RB convert), so I expect him to see plenty of targets out of the backfield. Tracy went over 10.5 receiving yards in 5 of his last seven games in 2024.

The Commanders’ backfield is a mess. Therefore, I am fishing for unders. Chris Rodriguez is competing with Jacory Croskey-Merritt for starting A-Back duties. Early downs, goal line role, etc. But I just think that between limited touches and a tough matchup against the G-Men, slam the under.

Erickson's Props:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)

Market snapshot: 

Erickson's pick: Bucs -1.5 + Live Bet the Total (Over)

Confidence: ★★ (2 out of 5)

Why:

  • Trust Baker Mayfield on the road: Buccaneers are 13-5 ATS on the road under Baker (72%), one of the NFL's best QB-cover trends.
  • QB & red-zone edge: Mayfield + Tampa's strong red-zone defense give them a clear efficiency advantage.
  • Offensive firepower: Both teams have explosive skill players, and last season's matchups combined for plenty of points.
  • Tackle concerns minimized: While Tristan Wirfs (TB) and Kaleb McGary (ATL) being out is noteworthy, these specific defenses aren't structured to fully exploit shaky protection.

Key Trends

Sides:

  • The Buccaneers are 13-5 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield.
  • The Buccaneers have won each of their last four season openers.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in six of their last 10 games.
  • The Buccaneers have won seven of their last nine games following a loss.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 21 games.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 road games.
  • The underdogs have won 10 of the last 25 Buccaneers’ games.
  • Tampa Bay is 4-4 ATS against the NFC South, with two losses against the Falcons
  • Atlanta was favored in both contests versus Tampa Bay in 2024.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Falcons are 12-20-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing 9-8 straight up.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 10 games after coming off overtime.
  • The underdogs have won 13 of the Falcons' last 29 games.
  • The Falcons are 0-8 as underdogs following wins.
  • They are 0-7 ATS as underdogs following wins.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in five of their last eight games.
  • The Falcons have won eight of their last 16 games.
  • The Falcons have won seven of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Falcons are 5-4 ATS in their last nine home games as underdogs and 11-6 as home favorites on the Moneyline.

Totals:

  • The Falcons finished 7-10 O/U in 2024.
  • Atlanta went over their team total in all three of Michael Penix's starts in 2024.
  • They finished 3-6 O/U at home, averaging 48 points per game.
  • 7 of the Falcons' last 12 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Falcons' last five games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Falcons' last 16 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Buccaneers' last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Buccaneers’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Tampa Bay went 12-6 O/U in 2024 (6-4 at home, averaging shy of 51 points per game).
  • Each of the Buccaneers’ last six games against NFC South opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Both ATL-TB games went over the total last season.

Overall:

I'm officially siding with Tampa Bay -1.5 to cover and win this divisional matchup. Baker Mayfield gives the Bucs the superior QB play, and combined with their reliable red-zone defense, I expect Tampa to come out with a close road win by a field goal.

As for the total, it’s a no-play for me. The offensive line issues are enough to have me shy away, but I’m not sold on the under with all the talent at the skill positions for both teams.

However, I stand by the live betting opportunity to wait and see through a series of each offense and how each OL holds up. If they look good and unfazed by pressure, bet the live total going OVER. Love the upside of Michael Penix and Baker Mayfield going H2H. But given the Falcons’ rested their starters in the preseason…perhaps we get a slower start for the home team.

Prop Angles:

Get used to seeing this name in the Falcons prop section. Drake London. Guy is in line for a monster season. 7-plus catches in the last two games he played with Michael Penix Jr. at the end of 2024 (combined for 31 targets in those two games).

London is slated for a monster target share and should fly over his receptions prop at 6.5 versus the pass-funnel Buccaneers.

Erickson's Props:

Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET (CBS)

Erickson's pick: Broncos -8.5

Confidence: ★★★★★ (5 out of 5)

Why:

  • Awful setup for rookie QB Cam Ward's NFL debut at Mile High
  • Denver's elite defense + Sean Payton's history of throttling weaker opponents
  • Broncos feasted on bad teams last season; largest average margin of victory in the NFL (+19 PPG)
  • Expect Bo Nix, 8-0 ATS as a favorite, to manage effectively and avoid mistakes entering Year 2 with Payton.

Trends

Sides:

  • The Titans have lost each of their last six games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 13 games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 16 of their last 17 games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 18 of their last 21 games.
  • The Titans have lost 17 of their last 20 road games.
  • As road underdogs, the Titans are 8-13-1 ATS.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in 13 of the Broncos' last 14 games.
  • The favorites have won each of the Broncos' last 14 games.
  • The Broncos have scored first in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last nine games as favorites.
  • The Broncos have won each of their last nine games as favorites.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last seven games following a loss.

Totals

  • The Titans are 18-16-1 toward the under in their last 32 games.
  • Seven of the Titans’ last eight road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Broncos' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Broncos' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

This is one of my stronger Week 1 bets: Denver -7 or better.

The Broncos are built to bury inferior opponents under Sean Payton. In 2024, no team won by a larger average margin against bottom-tier teams, and Payton has shown repeatedly that he steps on the gas when given the opportunity. Now, Denver gets a Titans squad starting rookie QB Cam Ward at Mile High - a brutal environment for a debut.

Bo Nix, meanwhile, enters this spot as one of the most reliable favorites in college/NFL transition history, posting an 8-0 ATS record as a favorite. Add in Tennessee's major coaching question marks under Brian Callahan, who owned the worst ATS record in the NFL last year, and this sets up for a lopsided Denver victory.

Expect Payton to open aggressively, establish early leads with a revamped rushing attack featuring J.K. Dobbins/RJ Harvey, and lean on a defensive front that should overwhelm a Titans offensive line still looking to make strides. While the total is low, it's because this profiles more as a one-sided scoreboard than a shootout.

Prop Angles:

With a positive game script, I expect a heavy dosage of rushes from both Broncos RBs. RJ Harvey has seen plenty of action on early downs in the preseason, so I like him to see a decent chunk of carries in this spot.

Not as optimistic about Calvin Ridley against the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL. Ridley has averaged just four catches per game since his return to the NFL in 2023 (3.8 last season).

Erickson's Props:

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks - Sunday, 4:05 PM ET (FOX)

Market snapshot:

Erickson's pick: SF -1.5 if Christian McCaffery plays. Otherwise, lean toward under at 43.5.

Confidence: ★★ (2 out of 5)

Why:

  • Talent edge with some key stars (CMC, Brock Purdy, Trent Williams) active
    • Well, at least that was the idea before CMC popped up on the injury report.
  • Fade Sam Darnold starting for Seattle; offense looks capped (49ers familiar with his strengths along with their OC, Klint Kubiak, formerly of the 49ers).
  • Division volatility acknowledged, but the mismatch is too strong to ignore

Trends

Sides:

  • The Seahawks have won 14 of their last 16 home openers.
  • The Seahawks have lost seven of their last 14 games (50%)
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in five of their last eight games.
  • The favorites have won 26 of the Seahawks' last 32 games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 12 of the Seahawks' last 13 games.
  • The road team has won 11 of the Seahawks' last 13 games.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in seven of their last 13 games as underdogs.
  • Seattle is 10-18-1 ATS in their last 29 games played (9-15-1 over the last 25 games).
  • The Seahawks are 5-7-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • The 49ers are 9-10 ATS as road favorites in their last 19 games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 18 of the 49ers’ last 29 games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with winning records.
  • San Francisco is 15-9 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Seahawks’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Seahawks' last 14 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seattle went 4-5 toward the over at home in 2024, averaging 42.8 points per game.
  • Four of the Seahawks' last five home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Seahawks' last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Seahawks' last 22 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the 49ers' last 11 games following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the 49ers’ last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the 49ers’ last six road games against NFC West opponents has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall

This matchup is one where I can't back Seattle despite the divisional home dog angle. I've already invested in NFL futures on the Seahawks to finish last in the division, and Darnold at QB doesn't change my stance.

The road team trend jumps off the page:

Road team has covered 12 of the last 13 Seahawks games (92%).

Road team has covered 18 of the 49ers' last 29 games (62%).

Seattle has also failed to cover 8 of their last 10 home games (20%), while the 49ers are 15-9 ATS when scoring 23+ points (63%) since 2023.

Division games are inherently volatile, but with SF's superior roster and offensive weapons intact (CMC withstanding), I'm leaning heavily to the Niners if they have their star RB.

Totals are trickier: both teams show mixed profiles, but note the 49ers' divisional road games trend toward the Over - 6 straight vs NFC West opponents OVER - while Seattle's home games skew Under (4 of last 5).

I think with CMC’s injury, the under becomes the better play on the total. Removing him from the offense limits the 49ers’ ceiling. Also, there’s a chance that Jauan Jennings is also not 100% healthy.

We want to fade Sam Darnold, and fade an offense for San Fran that might not be totally 100%. Smells like an under to me.

Prop Angles:

Cooper Kupp went over 42.5 yards twice in his last seven games in 2024. In a run-heavy Seahawks offense built around fullbacks and the ground game, I’m not convinced the older WR will be a focal point.

Erickson's Props:

Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Rams - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET (CBS)

Market snapshot:

Erickson's pick: Under 43.5 (Official Play)

Confidence: ★★★★★ (5 out of 5)

Why:

  • Both defensive lines have clear mismatches vs. both offensive lines = constant pressure, negative plays, and stalled drives
  • Matthew Stafford returns but missed significant camp time = projects for a slower start, which is a common theme for the Rams. 
  • Houston Texans' offensive weapons are limited beyond Nico Collins; Christian Kirk is out, and Iowa State rookies have potential, but are unproven
  • Despite being indoors, the matchup projects to be grindy and low-scoring
  • Rams' season openers historically slow starts; Texans’ offense lacks ceiling against elite defensive front outside Collins going berserk. 

Overall

This is one of my favorite plays of Week 1: taking the Under 43.5.

The defensive trenches dominate this matchup. The Rams boast one of the league's deepest fronts, and the Texans' defensive line unit is one of their best asset. Both offensive lines enter Week 1 vulnerable - expect constant disruption, sacks, and negative plays limiting scoring opportunities.

Matthew Stafford is set to start, but missed extended time this offseason rehabbing his back. That creates an early-season rust narrative against a talented Texans pass rush. On the other side, Houston's offensive structure remains uncertain beyond Nico Collins, with Christian Kirk out and multiple rookies yet unproven.

Four of the Rams' last five season openers have gone under. Combine that with Stafford's slow start and Houston's offensive constraints, and this matchup screams grindy, low-scoring football.

Lock in Under 43.5 as an official best bet.

Trends

Sides

  • The favorites have won 25 of the Rams' last 29 games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 11 of the Rams' last 15 games.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 19 games.
  • The Rams have won 10 of their last 14 home games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as road favorites.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 20 games and are 8-10-1 ATS in 2024.
  • They are 11-21-1 ATS as underdogs, while 7-8 ATS (45%) as home underdogs ATS.
  • The Texans have scored first in 10 of their last 14 games.
  • Their opponents have scored last in six of the last 8 Texans games.
  • The Texans have won the first half in 12 of their last 16 games.
  • Thirteen of the Texans’ last 20 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • The Texans have covered the spread in their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.

Totals:

  • Houston went 7-12 O/U in 2024.
  • Twelve of the Texans' last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Texans have gone under in 23 of their last 38 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • Four of the Rams’ last five season openers have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Rams’ last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line (65%)
  • Six of the Rams’ last seven games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

Prop Angles:

Jaylin Noel will melt faces in Week 1. With Christian Kirk out, I expect Noel to be Houston’s starting slot WR. Smash the overs and ladder up to 40-plus receiving yards (Kirk’s prop was listed at 42.5 yards).

Erickson's Props:

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET (FOX)

Market snapshot:

Erickson's lean: Second quarter Over 13.5 points + (Live Over Bet preferred)

Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)

Why:

  • Both offenses possess explosive playmakers; the Lions’ defense is still recovering from injuries at the end of 2024.
  • Packers' pass defense still suspect; Hutchinson’s effectiveness post-injury limits Lions' pressure ceiling.
  • Jordan Love's return to full health boosts the Packers’ pace, efficiency, and high-end scoring potential. 
  • Both defenses are capable of generating turnovers with star pass rushers = short fields and scoring pops.

Trends

Sides

  • The Packers have won each of their last 12 home openers.
  • The home team has covered the spread in three of the Packers’ last four games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 11 of their last 15 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 18 of their last 25 games.
  • The Lions are 26-12 ATS as favorites.
  • They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 22-10 ATS over their last 32 games (71%).
    • When in doubt? Lions ATS has been extremely profitable.
  • The Lions have won 14 of their last 16 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 19 of their last 22 games.
  • The Lions have won each of their last 10 games following a loss
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 12 of their last 14 road games
  • Six of the Packers’ seven losses in 2024 came against playoff teams (Lions, Vikings, Eagles).
  • GB went 1-5 ATS against playoff teams in 2024.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 18-3 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 15-6 ATS. Green Bay is 4-12 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • The favorites have won 12 of the Packers’ last 14 games.
  • The Packers have won nine of their last 15 games.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in their last nine of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Packers are 9-10-1 ATS as home favorites.
  • In six of the Packers’ last seven games as favorites, the first score has been a Packers Touchdown.

Totals

  • Nine of the Lions’ last 10 season openers against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Lions’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nineteen of the Lions' last 29 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Three of the Lions' last five road games have gone under the total.
  • Five of the Lions' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Packers are 22-15 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • Fourteen of the Packers’ last 26 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Packers’ last 20 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall

This sets up as potentially one of the highest-upside shootout candidates on the Week 1 slate.

Detroit's defense remains a bit banged up, still integrating returning pieces after a 2024 season riddled with injuries. Key playmaker Aidan Hutchinson is expected to play, but conditioning and snap counts could be limited, and the Packers' OL offers a chance for Jordan Love to stay upright and attack vertically.

Green Bay's defensive secondary looks extremely thin, even after adding pass rusher Micah Parsons to help put less impact on the coverage unit.

Bo Melton was converted to CB this offseason to potentially compensate for injuries and depth issues - not ideal against a Detroit offense that thrives on mismatches.

Losing DT Kenny Clark in the middle also sets up David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs for production inside.

Dan Campbell's Lions are extremely profitable ATS and dominant when playing from ahead, but the Packers bring an offense with a deeper WR group and a rejuvenated Love. Given divisional familiarity, I'm avoiding the pre-game side and targeting the total instead.

Best approach: lean Over 47.5, but I prefer a live Over if these teams start slow. Both matchups last season combined for just 10 first-quarter points total, and I'll be waiting for a suppressed live number after the first quarter. Each game featured 17 points scored in the second quarter.

Second quarter over 13.5 points? Why not.

Just takes one massive Jameson Williams or Jahmyr Gibbs play to break the points seal after these two teams feel each other out in the first quarter.

Jared Goff didn’t play in the preseason and has a new OC/play caller in the headset.

Prop Angles:

Jordan Love was hurt for most of last season. The coaches have spoken about how he will run more in 2025. The Lions played a lot of man coverage under Aaron Glenn, and I’d expect some of that to carry over to this season. The last time Love faced Detroit, he rushed for 23 yards (season-high).

Erickson's Props:

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