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NFL Betting Primer, Picks & Predictions: Week 2 (2026)

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Welcome back to the NFL Betting Primer. Week 1 is in the books, and we saw a lot of points scored. Last week tied for the most points ever to open an NFL season. But interestingly enough, the primetime games were a perfect 4-0 toward the under.

My Week 1 betting card was slightly positive because of player props, not sides/totals, going 6-5 overall (2-4 on game picks, 4-1 on player props).

Still, I was on cloud nine watching these games play out on Sunday. Again, for those who read last week’s article, I was celebrating my niece’s birthday. But because she knows Uncle Erickson is a football aficionado, the celebration was at a beer hall. NFL Red Zone. Wings. Huge TVs. It was a blast. And my highest conviction play of the day (Jaguars dismantling the Browns) came through. Let’s keep the vibes high as we head into Week 2.

I imagine the unders will bite back, so keep that in mind while handicapping all your games on the Week 2 Sunday main slate.

 

For my thoughts on all the games on the Week 2 slate, be sure to check out the weekly lookahead lines show I do every week with Ryan Wormley (Monday release following every Sunday slate) on the BettingPros YouTube Channel.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Week 2 NFL Betting Primer

Official Plays

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7.5 versus Cleveland Browns (-106)
  • New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens UNDER 47.5 points (-120)
  • Cincinnati Bengals +3 @ Houston Texans (-125)
  • Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans UNDER 39.5 points (-105)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline @ Denver Broncos (+130)
  • Quinshon Judkins UNDER 49.5 rushing yards (-108)
  • Bijan Robinson OVER 126.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114)
  • Mack Hollins OVER 35.5 receiving yards (-112)
  • Brock Purdy OVER 19.5 completions (-122)
  • Rashod Bateman OVER 2.5 receptions (-135)
  • Jeremiyah Love OVER 15.5 receiving yards (-114)

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Under 47.5 Points

Trends

  • The Saints are 3-18 against the spread (ATS) in Weeks 1-2 since 2013 - a strong trend running against New Orleans covering this week.
  • Lamar Jackson is 7-16 ATS as a home favorite. Baltimore is a big home favorite here and typically (at least during the John Harbaugh era) would play down to the level of their competition.
  • Saints’ 2025 full-season ATS: 9-8. Ravens: 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games - a rough recent stretch for Baltimore.
  • The Saints have covered seven straight games ATS, including six straight as an underdog and six straight on the road.
  • The Ravens are on a fresh one-game straight up (SU) win/ATS cover streak and a four-game OVER streak.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook: Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.
  • New Orleans finished 3-5 to the over/under on the road as an underdog in 2025.

Injuries

  • Saints: Oscar Delp and Cameron Jordan are both questionable.
  • Ravens: Zay Flowers (hamstring, questionable, hurt in Week 1), Ja’Kobi Lane (wrist, OUT), plus several more questionable.
  • Baltimore is dealing with offensive line injuries as well.
  • Both teams went OVER in Week 1 (Baltimore scored 41 points; New Orleans and Detroit combined for 61 points).

 

Overall

The Saints ran 86 offensive plays in Week 1. The league average in 2025 was 62 offensive plays per game. I think we could see this team playing its second straight road game and coming out flat after an exhausting Week 1.

Then, on Baltimore’s side, we saw their offense cool off in the second half versus the Colts after losing Zay Flowers. They scored just 10 points, compared to 31 points in the first half.

Per the FantasyPros Are They Playing Tool, Flowers has just a 12% chance of playing. He’s as good as out for Week 2.

Taking the under in a Ravens home game after they posted a 40-burger in Week 1 feels scary. But this spot is a bit different than last week. Two of the Ravens’ top receivers are likely out.

And the Ravens’ defense in head coach Jesse Minter’s debut (presuming Trey Hendrickson plays) gave the Colts all sorts of pressure problems up front.

Baltimore’s defense finished sixth in expected points added (EPA)/play allowed in Week 1 and had the best pressure rate (53%). I think we see more of the “bad” version of Tyler Shough in Week 2 - similar to what he was putting on display through the first three and a half quarters versus a terrible Lions defense indoors in Week 1. The Saints-Lions game looked like it would finish well below the total, but New Orleans rallied late to force overtime. Shough played in just one road game in 2025 in which the total was over 44 points (five out of six games went under 44.5 points).

This was one of Worm’s favorite bets of the week on the early lookahead show, and I agreed with him.

Worm and I both landed on the UNDER here - take the free points, since this number was 46.5 before Week 1, and it’s already drifted up to 47.5 in some spots, despite Baltimore missing two receivers. I said I don’t want to bet either side outright given the Flowers injury, but I’m comfortable with the UNDER as one of my favorite bets of the week.

Rashod Bateman’s box score (1 target, 0 catches, 0 yards) badly understates his game. He actually hauled in a real 19-yard catch on a separate drive, but it was wiped out by an unrelated holding penalty. His true line - 2 targets, 1 catch, 19 yards.

Bateman’s 96.3% route participation rate was the highest among Baltimore pass-catchers, and his 79.7% snap share confirms he was a full-time piece on the field all game. Minter mentioned that big days are still ahead for Bateman even after an empty box score in Week 1. Declan Doyle was regretting not getting Bateman more touches in Week 1: “Man, I gotta get Bate a touch, here.”

Props

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Bengals +3

Trends

  • Bengals are 5-4 ATS as a road underdog since 2024.
  • Texans are 6-8 ATS as a home favorite since 2024.
  • O/U since 2024: Bengals 21-14 (OVER lean), Texans 15-24 (strong UNDER lean). Both went OVER in Week 1, but Cincinnati’s was fluky (two defensive/special-teams touchdowns inflated the final score).
  • Houston’s six-game SU regular-season win streak (closing out 2025) was snapped in Week 1 - Houston is now on a two-game ATS non-cover streak. Cincinnati is on a fresh one-game SU win/ATS cover streak.
  • Separately, Joe Burrow is 13-1 ATS in his last 14 games as a road underdog of 2.5+ points since 2020.
  • According to BetMGM, Joe Burrow is 64% ATS as a career underdog (trailing only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson).
  • C.J. Stroud is just 43% ATS as a favorite.
  • Without Nico Collins, the Texans are 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS and 3-4-1 to the over/under.
    • Two of those three wins came against backup quarterbacks.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Houston has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games in September - directly relevant given this is a September game and Houston is favored at home. They are notorious for slow starts (started 0-3 last season).
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, each of the Texans’ last four games has gone OVER the total.

Injuries

  • Texans: LB Jake Hummel is doubtful (groin).
  • Texans: WR Nico Collins’ hamstring is being tested to assess the severity of his injury (probably not playing, given the history of mid-week hamstring injuries).
  • The FantasyPros “Are They Playing Tool” has Collins tabbed with a 27% chance of playing in Week 2.

Overall

The situational numbers on both sides actually argue against laying the points with Houston here - Houston has been a losing team as a home favorite the last two years, and Joe Burrow, specifically, has been excellent as a road underdog of this size for half a decade. Advantage Cincinnati.

And this is not what I thought earlier in the week. On the early lookahead show, I said I liked the Texans laying the points. I thought what Buffalo did to Houston’s defense said more about Josh Allen having a Superman game than about Houston’s defense actually being overrated.

Cincinnati is more of a pocket-passing operation, which I felt was better for Houston than facing a dual-threat quarterback. I also pointed out the Bengals’ own defensive showing against Tampa Bay came with a lot of help from four Buccaneers turnovers, not just dominant play on their part.

But then I dove more into the numbers from Week 1. Upon rewatching the Bengals’ defense, it was definitely better than it was in 2025, generating nearly a 40% pressure rate in Week 1.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats (NGS), the Bengals’ defense generated a higher pressure rate in Week 1 (38.9%) than it did last season (33.1%). Not that surprising, considering they added four key players to their defensive front: Boye Mafe, Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen and rookie Cashius Howell (not to mention safety Bryan Cook in the secondary).

In Week 1, Mafe and Howell each had four pressures off the edge, while Allen (3) and Lawrence (2) had multiple pressures aligned as interior linemen.

And Burrow gets the ball out very quickly, which helps slow down an opposing pass rush. The Bengals signal-caller had 2.54 seconds to throw in Week 1, faster than any game last season. This helped lead to a pressure rate of just 24.1%, also lower than any rate faced during the 2025 season (NGS). Burrow tied for the league lead with 20 quick completions in Week 1, going 20-of-25 for 170 yards and a touchdown on such attempts, while completing just 5-of-10 attempts with a time to throw longer than 2.5 seconds and an interception.

Despite a lack of teamwide success in getting to the quarterback for the Texans in Week 1, with a 28.1% pressure rate, down 7.5% from last season, Will Anderson Jr. generated six pressures on 28 pass rushes (21.4%). Anderson has recorded the second-most pressures in the NFL since the start of last season (93), with 40 happening in under 2.5 seconds (third-most).

Give me the Bengals as the road underdogs. Burrow is a great ATS underdog, and the absence of Nico Collins might make life tough for C.J. Stroud against an improved Bengals defense - even at home (where the Texans have typically been overrated ATS anyway).

No Collins means more heavy personnel. More tight ends. Ergo, some random Texans tight end will score this week. My money is on rookie Marlin Klein. He had 1 catch last week on only a couple of routes. But he has been a buzzy player for Houston all offseason. And he just celebrated his birthday. Get this man a touchdown early on Sunday.

Props

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Buccaneers -8.5

Trends

  • Browns are 4-11 ATS as a road underdog since 2024.
  • The Browns are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games.
  • Buccaneers are 4-9 ATS as a home favorite since 2024 - below .500 in this exact role despite being an 8.5-point favorite now.
  • Both defenses allowed 30+ points in Week 1 (Cleveland: 34; Tampa Bay: 33) - supports the OVER on the 40.5 total.
  • Current streaks (through Week 1, 2026): A three-game Browns ATS cover streak (closing out 2025) was snapped by the Week 1 loss at Jacksonville - Cleveland is now on a fresh one-game non-cover and one-game SU losing streak. Tampa Bay is on a 10-game ATS non-cover streak - extended by the Week 1 non-cover turnover-inflicted loss to Cincinnati.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games. Per ESPN, this is the longest streak on record of non-covers in the Super Bowl era.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, five of Tampa Bay’s last six home openers have gone OVER the total.
  • The Browns ranked fourth-worst in average scoring margin on the road in 2025 (-11.6). Lost to Jacksonville by 24 points in Week 1 (Biggest margin of loss that week).

Injuries

  • Browns: QB Deshaun Watson is still expected to start.
  • Buccaneers: WR Jalen McMillan is expected to return for Week 2.

Overall

There’s only one way the Buccaneers can break their 0-10 ATS cold streak: A Baker Mayfield revenge game special against his former team, which chose to trade for and sign Deshaun Watson to a fully guaranteed contract.

One of the best bets from last week was laying the points with Jacksonville at home (my Polymarket Prediction of the week on the BettingPros Best Bets Show was taking the Jaguars to win by two touchdowns). That hit, so let’s rinse and repeat.

Cleveland is 4-11 ATS as a road underdog, and just vastly overrated as a defensive unit when they play outside the state of Ohio. Bad offensive lines don’t travel, and Cleveland has five offensive linemen on the Week 2 injury report.

If Watson struggles early, as Cleveland’s offense did in Week 1’s blowout loss, this could get out of hand fast, regardless of Tampa’s cover history.

I’ve been pretty vocal about the Browns in 2026: Auto-lay the points against Cleveland for as long as Watson is their starter.

Nothing about Jacksonville dismantling that offense in Week 1 changes my mind; if anything, it confirms it. I’ve pointed out that Cleveland’s defense has historically been worse on the road than at home, which matters here, and I like Tampa Bay’s staff, especially Zac Robinson as offensive coordinator, given his familiarity with Jaguars head coach Liam Coen (having just dismantled the Browns’ defense in Week 1).

Expect a highly motivated Mayfield to do many of the same things Jacksonville just did to the Browns’ defense. The Buccaneers were live to win as underdogs last week had it not been for the four turnover fumbles against Cincinnati.

Browns running back Quinshon Judkins has surpassed 48.5 rushing yards once in his last six road games dating back to his rookie season. Tampa Bay also boasts an elite run defense because that’s just how Todd Bowles runs his unit up front. Per NGS, the Buccaneers’ rush defense under Bowles has allowed a 38.2% success rate to opposing rushers, the lowest in the league since Bowles took over defensive duties in 2019. In 2025, opposing rushers recorded a 38.4% success rate against the Buccaneers’ rush defense, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.

In Week 1, Judkins rushed just 12 times for 33 yards. He also posted a 25.0% success rate on 12 carries in his Week 1 matchup against the Jaguars, the fourth-lowest rate of his career, per NGS. This marks a slight downtick from his 33.0% success rate last season, the second-lowest among rushers with over 100 carries in the league.

Props

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Under 39.5 Points

Trends

  • Eagles ATS as favorites (2024-26): 18-16. Eagles ATS on the road: 12-5 (70.6%) - strong, and Philadelphia is the road favorite this week.
  • Eagles O/U: 18-22 (UNDER lean). Eagles went UNDER in eight of their final 10 games of 2025, but already broke in their first 2026 test - Week 1’s Commanders-Eagles game closed at 44.5 and finished at 46 points, an OVER. But… 3-9 to the over/under in non-division games.
  • Eight of the Eagles’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line (the three overs coming versus NFC East division rival Washington).
  • Titans ATS as an underdog: 9-20 (.310).
  • Titans ATS at home: 4-14 - brutal, and this week they’re a home underdog.
  • Titans O/U: 21-14 (OVER lean).
  • The Eagles snapped a two-game SU skid with the Week 1 win but did not cover as a favorite (won by only two points) - a fresh one-game ATS non-cover streak.
  • Philadelphia’s well-known underdog cover streaks (6-0 ATS in their last six games as an underdog; 5-0 ATS in the last five games as a road underdog) do not apply this week.
  • Titans are on a three-game SU losing streak as the season crosses the boundary.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the road team has covered in each of the Eagles’ last five games - Philadelphia is the road team this week (as the favorite), so this trend favors Philadelphia covering.

Injuries

  • Eagles: OG Landon Dickerson battled through injuries after a rough Week 1 outing (was placed on injured reserve and is out ~4-6 weeks).
  • Eagles: LB Jonathan Greenard is questionable (pectoral). Saquon Barkley’s Week 1 run efficiency was poor, aside from one big run.
  • Titans: Titans starting LB Cedric Gray is returning in Week 2 (practicing in full). Cam Ward struggled badly in Week 1. The Titans allowed 152 rushing yards and two touchdowns to the Jets in Week 1 without Gray.

 

Overall

Where will points go to die in Week 2? Nashville, Tennessee.

Both of these offensive lines have issues, and I think there’s a clear case that the defensive lines on both teams will dominate in the trenches. Cam Ward was pressured on 41% of his dropbacks in Week 1 versus the Jets. Jayden Daniels was pressured on 50% of his dropbacks against the Eagles in Week 1.

I don’t need to sell anyone on the idea that the Titans’ offense could struggle. But the Eagles’ offense might not fare so well either. This unit is still going through growing pains under new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion.

In Week 1, they had 10 completed first downs. The only worse team? Denver with nine. The team ahead of them? The Titans with 11.

Philadelphia is notorious for going UNDER the projected total, and that’s been the case whenever they aren’t playing the Washington Commanders’ defense.

Eight of the Eagles’ last 11 games have gone under the total points line (the three overs came against Washington).

Robert Saleh has faced Jalen Hurts before (last postseason), and the 49ers upset the Eagles outright as 6-point underdogs (the game also went UNDER the 44.5-point total).

The Eagles also lost to the Jets back in 2023, when Saleh was the head coach, as 6-point favorites. The game went under the 43.5 total. The Eagles’ offense averaged under 20 points per game in both contests versus Saleh’s defenses.

Jeffery Simmons and John Franklin-Myers could be problematic against the Eagles’ interior offensive line, which will be without Landon Dickerson. When the Eagles lose pieces upfront, things tend to unravel quickly.

This game projects like a total slog. Take the UNDER.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Jaguars Moneyline

Trends

  • Broncos ATS as favorites: 12-9. Broncos ATS at home: 13-6 - strong, and they’re a home favorite this week.
  • Jaguars ATS as underdogs: 13-8. Jaguars ATS on the road: 10-7 overall, but improved sharply in 2025 (6-2 ATS on the road).
  • O/U leans conflict: Broncos 18-19-1 (slight UNDER), Jaguars 20-16 (OVER lean).
  • Jaguars snapped a one-game skid (Wild Card playoff loss) with the Week 1 win - a fresh one-game SU win/ATS cover streak. Also 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games overall, 4-0 ATS in the last four road games and - most directly on point - 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings specifically in Denver. Plus, they have gone OVER in four straight games as a road underdog.
  • Broncos are on a two-game SU losing streak (AFC Conference Championship loss and Week 1); Denver has gone UNDER in 4 straight games following a SU loss, and UNDER in four straight following a loss by 14+ points - Denver’s Week 1 loss was by 21 points, resetting that trend for this week’s total.
  • Since 2024, Denver is 2-8 to the over/under after a loss (6-4 SU).
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Denver’s last seven season home openers have all gone UNDER.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Jaguars have won nine of their last 10 games SU and they are 9-1 ATS over that span- both favorable to Jacksonville.
  • The Jaguars beat the Broncos 34-20 last season in Denver as 3.5-point underdogs. The game went OVER the 47-point total.
  • Denver is coming off short rest (playing on Monday Night Football).
  • The Jags went 2-0 ATS with a rest advantage in 2025.

Injuries

Overall

I mentioned on the early lookahead show that I like Jacksonville with the points, but honestly, I like their Moneyline even more - they beat Denver handily on the road last season, and I don’t think this offense taking a real step forward with Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence is a mirage.

Per NGS, Denver went 8-1 at home in 2025, with their only loss a 34-20 defeat to Jacksonville in Week 16 - the most points allowed by the Broncos in a single game in 2025 (18.3 points per game allowed on the season, third-best in the NFL) and the largest home loss in their last 40 home games, including playoffs. The Jaguars carry the longest active regular-season win streak in the NFL at nine games, one short of the franchise’s second-ever double-digit win streak (11 straight in 1999).

Only Seattle has a better ATS record than the Jags since the start of 2025 (13-6 ATS). The Jaguars have won nine of their last 10 games SU and are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games.

Denver is just 4-4 ATS as a home favorite. They went 6-0 ATS in Bo Nix’s first season as a home favorite. With higher expectations, the Broncos have not always risen to the occasion. Even behind the crowd and altitude advantages at Empower Field at Mile High.

The spread was +3 before the Jaguars played in Week 1. The Jaguars smashed, and the Broncos looked terrible on both sides of the ball on Monday Night. Bo Nix, new offensive coordinator Davis Webb and Jaylen Waddle looked all out of sync. I understand the concern about backing Jacksonville, as Denver is in a typical bounce-back spot after a huge primetime loss, but that’s market expectation. The line has barely moved after Week 1.

Updated point spread: Jags +2.5.

Always fade Sean Payton in Week 2 - 4-14 ATS and 6-14 SU in Week 2.

Remaining Matchups

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Panthers -2.5

Trends

  • Panthers’ 2025 full-season ATS: 11-7 (Home 6-3, Road 5-4) - Carolina is the road favorite this week (after opening as a 1.5-point underdog).
  • Panthers hold a 6-4 ATS edge over Atlanta across recent meetings and have won three straight outright, including a 30-0 shutout and a 30-27 overtime win in 2025.
  • O/U last 10 for each team: Panthers: 6-4, Falcons: 6-4.
  • Current streaks (through Week 1, 2026): Carolina is actually on a four-game SU losing streak entering Week 2.
  • Atlanta is on a two-game ATS non-cover streak and a two-game UNDER streak.
  • Atlanta’s OVER record is 6-1-1 following a SU loss, which is directly relevant since the Falcons just lost SU in Week 1.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Carolina has covered the spread in 11 of its last 12 games following a loss - directly relevant given Carolina is coming off a loss (part of their four-game SU skid) heading into this week.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Carolina is 3-0 SU versus Atlanta in the last three matchups, consistent with the three straight-outright note above.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, three of the last four matchups played in Atlanta have gone to overtime - a competitiveness note worth keeping in mind for the total.

Injuries

  • Falcons: The quarterback room is unsettled. Michael Penix Jr. (recovering from a partial ACL tear) is targeting a return in Week 3 or later, per Adam Schefter. Cooper Rush started Week 1. Tua Tagovailoa missed Week 1 with an oblique injury. Rookie Jack Strand would be next if the veterans are all ruled out.
  • Falcons: CB A.J. Terrell logged a full practice on Thursday; OG Chris Lindstrom was limited (concussion). 

 

Overall

Setting the Atlanta quarterback question aside, the shape of this game still favors Carolina in a few real ways - they’ve won this series outright three straight times, including a shutout, and their situational profile (road-favored at a place they’ve had recent success, money ATS after a loss) supports the Cardiac Cats in a divisional matchup.

I’ve changed my tune a bit since the early lookahead show, when I was more steadfast on avoiding this matchup. I like Carolina’s offense more on paper - Bryce Young got real contributions across the board (Jalen Coker with two touchdowns last week, productive games from the running backs), whereas Atlanta was way too dependent on getting the ball to Bijan Robinson a hundred times and not much else.

And with Atlanta’s quarterback room a total unknown - most likely bad - I don’t have a ton of confidence betting on either side, and I’m not touching the 44-point total.

I even joked that if Cooper Rush gets announced as the starter, you could see a scenario where Carolina becomes a road favorite after Atlanta just gave up 59 at home. And that’s how the line has since moved, with Carolina now a slight road in-division favorite. What could go wrong for Carolina?

Well, the Falcons’ defense is leaps and bounds ahead of the Bears. So we might not see the same type of production from Carolina’s offense.

Honestly, this game might just be as simple as Robinson versus the Panthers’ defense. Carolina’s run defense just got boat-raced by the Chicago Bears, and I’d anticipate the Falcons will follow a similar strategy.

Robinson went OVER 130 yards from scrimmage last week and has done so in four out of the last five games. He averaged 127 yards from scrimmage in both games last season versus the Panthers’ defense.

Robinson forced 12 missed tackles in Week 1, tying his career high previously set in Week 17, 2025, with nine of those missed tackles coming on rushing plays. Robinson totaled 83 rushing yards and 99 yards after contact, his 10th career game with more yards after contact than total yards.

Last season, the Panthers allowed 2.8 yards after contact per carry, the eighth-lowest mark in the NFL. In Week 1, they allowed 4.8 yards after contact per carry, their highest in a game since Week 10, 2020 (5.2), and missed 13 tackles on rushing plays, tied for their third-most in a single game since at least 2018, per NGS.

Against the Steelers, Robinson gained a career-high 114 yards after the catch, the second-highest total by a running back in a single game since 2024, trailing only Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 11, 2025 (122 yards).

Eight of Robinson’s 10 targets came behind the line of scrimmage, where he recorded 41 yards after contact and forced two missed tackles on catches. Robinson recorded a career-high 50 yards after contact on total receptions and forced three missed tackles on catches, tying him for the third-most in his career. Robinson was targeted on 47.6% of his routes in Week 1, his highest target rate since Week 12, 2023, per NGS.

The Falcons’ defense also played relatively well in Week 1 versus the Steelers, and I would expect Carolina’s offense to come back down to Earth.

Last season, it was the Lasso Lag trend (teams notoriously went UNDER the total the week after playing Dallas), and we saw something similar in post-Bears matchups. Bear backslide? Bad News Bears? Work in progress, folks.

I’ll let my co-host Seth on the BettingPros Best Bets Show lay the points with Carolina. That’s my lean as well, but I’m not confident because this game screams a wide range of outcomes. Just give me Bijan Robinson versus the Carolina defense.

Props

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Patriots -5.5

Trends

  • Patriots are 7-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2024.
  • Steelers are 5-5 ATS as a road underdog since 2024.
  • O/U since 2024: Patriots 23-16 (OVER lean, ~59%), Steelers 17-20 (mild UNDER lean). Market pricing leans UNDER 41.5 (implied).
  • The Steelers are on a two-game SU win streak and a two-game ATS cover streak, both crossing the season boundary.
  • New England has now lost two straight to that same Seattle team (Super Bowl + Week 1 rematch).
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Patriots are 13-0 SU in their last 13 games as favorites - an emphatic number in New England’s favor as -5.5 favorites this week.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, New England is 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the last eight Steelers road game openers as underdogs have gone UNDER the game total.

Injuries

  • Patriots: WR A.J. Brown (high-ankle sprain) placed on injured reserve after leaving the Seattle loss early (out at least four games).
  • Patriots: RB TreVeyon Henderson expected to return.
  • Steelers: CB Joey Porter Jr. trending toward returning from his back injury.
  • Steelers: WR Michael Pittman Jr. did not practice on Thursday.

Overall

New England’s home-favorite trend is genuinely one of the better situational numbers on the Week 2 slate, which is why (besides my Patriots’ homerism) I lean toward the home favorites.

Pittsburgh hardly looked like a juggernaut at home versus a bad Falcons team in Week 1, so they are hardly a unit to be feared. Pittsburgh had every opportunity to smash and only won by seven points - that’s a real red flag regarding how good the Steelers’ offense actually is. The fact that the Steelers needed a pick-six to beat the Falcons at home is alarming in itself.

Therefore, I like the Patriots - it’s their home opener, they’re coming off a brutal stretch (the Super Bowl loss and the Week 1 loss to Seattle, on top of losing A.J. Brown), but they’ve also had more than 10 days of rest since that game.

Mack Hollins has gone OVER 35.5 receiving yards in seven of his last 10 games. He also went over in both games last season when Kayshon Boutte was out of the lineup. In the last 10 games where Hollins has captured at least a 66% snap share, he has gone OVER 35.5 receiving yards eight times (80%), averaging 4.3 receptions and 6.4 targets for 60 yards per game. The rumblings from Patriots practice this week are that Hollins has been leading the receivers in all the drills because he is expected to take on a large share of the targets in Brown’s absence.

While Romeo Doubs was dropping passes in Week 1, Hollins stepped up big time. The journeyman wideout - not the wideout the Patriots paid for in free agency - drew four targets after Brown left, the most of any New England receiver in that span, en route to a game total of five targets (15.2% target share/14.7% adjusted target share).

Props

Green Bay Packers at New York Jets

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Jets +3.5 & Over 44.5 Points

Trends

  • Packers are 3-9 ATS as a road favorite since 2024 - just “one” bad number in their exact role this week.
  • The Packers have lost six in a row.
  • Jordan Love as a road favorite of 3+ points: 0-8 ATS.
  • Green Bay after a loss since 2025: a league-worst 1-6 ATS.
  • Jets are 4-5 ATS as a home underdog since 2024. Honestly thought it would be worse.
  • O/U trending OVER recently for both: Packers 7-3 (last 10), Jets 6-4 (last 10) - citing Green Bay’s second-half defensive collapse in Week 1.
  • The Packers are now on a four-game SU losing streak (three losses to close 2025 plus the Week 1 loss) and a six-game ATS non-cover streak. They still haven’t won a game since losing Micah Parsons.
  • Jets snapped a matching five-game SU losing streak and a matching five-game ATS non-cover streak in their Week 1 win over Tennessee.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Packers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Green Bay’s last six road games as a favorite have all gone OVER the total.

Injuries

  • Jets: FS Minkah Fitzpatrick (groin, hurt Week 1) is out for Week 2.

Overall

Green Bay’s situational number as a road favorite (3-9 ATS) was already bad before Week 1, and everything that happened last week makes it look worse, not better - a second-half defensive collapse and bad offensive line play on the road again. They will be without Micah Parsons for a few more weeks.

That’s not the profile of a team I want to lay the points with, even against a Jets team that is usually a mess.

But the Jets, to their credit, just snapped genuine five-game SU and ATS skids by winning on the road in Week 1. At a minimum, this suggests some things are trending in the right direction there, even if it’s a modest signal against a limited Titans defense.

This reads more like a fade Green Bay spot than a buy New York one - the Packers’ specific weak number in this specific role is the strongest signal in this game. Green Bay is 0-5 SU and 0-6-1 ATS after Parsons’ Week 15 injury last season.

Aaron Glenn was also Detroit’s former defensive coordinator and knows the Packers well from that time, which could mean the Jets have something schemed up on defense for Jordan Love and company.

I also think this is a sneaky over spot. The Jets have real weapons in Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Kenyon Sadiq and Adonai Mitchell. And the Packers are littered with playmakers at wide receiver and tight end against a pass-funnel Jets defense that will be without starting safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.

As Pat Fitzmaurice has said on several shows this week, take the overs in games featuring NFC North defenses.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Chargers -6.5

Trends

  • Chargers ATS vs. AFC West: 10-1-1 - dominant, including a 4-0 ATS record against the Raiders.
  • Raiders ATS versus AFC West: 5-7 overall, specifically 1-3 ATS versus the Chargers.
  • Chargers ATS as favorites: 16-11. Raiders ATS as underdogs: 12-16.
  • Both teams lean slightly UNDER (Raiders 17-18, Chargers 16-21).
  • Current streaks (through Week 1, 2026): Raiders are on a two-game SU streak crossing the season boundary (a Week 18 walk-off win, then the Week 1 2026 win over Miami) with a fresh ATS cover; also 4-0 ATS in the last four games versus AFC opponents.
  • Chargers are on a well-corroborated four-game SU losing streak (Week 18 loss, Wild Card loss to New England, Week 1 2026 loss) - a real, extending skid despite being big favorites again.
  • Multiple additional splits (4-1 ATS last five home games, UNDER in six of the last seven games in this exact Week 2 calendar slot).
  • Chargers have won the last two meetings SU and are 4-2 in the last six head-to-head games.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, favorites have covered the spread in the last eight games between the Chargers and Raiders - directly relevant since L.A. is favored again this week.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chargers are 5-0 at home against Las Vegas (SU or ATS not specified by the source) - broadly consistent with the 4-0 ATS figure against the Raiders above, though the exact metric isn’t confirmed to match.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chargers are 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four games - a streak worth weighing against their banged-up receiver corps.

Injuries

Overall

The Chargers’ 4-0 ATS/10-1-1 divisional record against Las Vegas is another strong trend on this week’s board. Still feels scary to lay almost a touchdown after the colossal egg the Chargers laid last week.

Los Angeles just got embarrassed as a bigger favorite (a 9.5-point home loss to Arizona); they’re carrying a genuine four-game losing streak into this spot, and Ladd McConkey is likely out.

However, it’s still going to be a buy-the-dip spot for me. I don’t think Justin Herbert and new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel not fully clicking in their first week together is a real signal - that kind of combination usually takes time to gel. The number moved from 9.5 down to 6.5 after one bad game, and I think that’s actually a more appropriate and actionable line to take on how good the Chargers’ roster is relative to Las Vegas, not proof that the market had it wrong before.

I want to zig while everyone else zags away from the Chargers’ Week 1 loss. The Raiders beat the Dolphins and won’t have Brock Bowers for another week; let’s not get carried away.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Seahawks -4

Trends

  • Seahawks ATS as favorites: 14-8-2. Seahawks ATS on the road: 13-4-1 - elite. Seahawks ATS in NFC West games: 9-5.
  • Cardinals ATS as underdogs: 14-11. Cardinals ATS at home: 7-10, specifically just 2-6 in 2025 - a real soft spot.
  • Total set relatively low (41.5) given both teams historically lean OVER, reflecting Seattle’s defense (allowed a league-low 17.2 points per game last season).
  • Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road favorite.
  • Cardinals snapped a brutal nine-game SU losing streak with their Week 1 upset win - a fresh one-game win streak.
  • Seahawks have dominated recently - winning both 2025 meetings and have beaten Arizona in six of the last seven meetings dating to 2021.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Seattle has won 11 straight games.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Seattle is 6-0 ATS when holding a rest advantage.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Arizona’s last six home openers have gone OVER the total (the exact definition of ‘opener’ is not specified by the source).

Injuries

  • Seahawks: QB Sam Darnold is OUT (soft-tissue glute/hip injury; initial 4-6-week estimate; some hope for a Week 3 return). Backup Drew Lock will start. He was 16-of-22 for 187 yards and a touchdown in relief of Darnold in the Seahawks’ Week 1 comeback win. This single injury moved the line from -10 to -4.5.

Overall

I get that it’s Drew Lock as a road favorite against a division opponent. But Seattle’s defense will be the reason why this team covers the 4-point spread and wins. Mike Macdonald’s squad is built to travel. Road Warriors.

Their road ATS record under him is an elite 12-4-1 (15-2 SU).

My favorite bet in this game, by a wide margin, is also the UNDER - I had this projected as the lowest-scoring game of the week at 40.5, well under the 43.5 it was posted at (now bet down to 40.5).

Seattle allowed a league-high 5.7 receptions per game to running backs (sixth-most yards per game at 37.6). We bet the OVER on Rhamondre Stevenson’s yardage prop in Week 1, and it hit gloriously. Rinse and repeat with rookie Jeremiyah Love in Week 2. Love had only 9 yards through the air last week, but he also had 4 targets. And more importantly, he looked healthy coming off his high-ankle sprain.

Props

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Over 50.5 Points

Trends

  • Cowboys ATS as favorites since 2023: 13-15 - a genuinely mediocre number. Cowboys O/U 2025-26 combined: 14-4 - a heavy OVER lean, relevant with a 50.5 total.
  • Commanders ATS on the road since 2023: 15-14-1. Commanders ATS in NFC East games since 2023: 9-10-1.
  • Commanders O/U 2025-26 combined: 11-7 (OVER lean) - both teams lean OVER, consistent with the highest total on the Week 2 board.
  • Commanders are on a three-game ATS covering streak crossing the season boundary, extending into this week’s road-underdog spot.
  • Cowboys have failed to cover in six straight games.
  • Cowboys have won five of the last six meetings.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, each of Washington’s last six games against division opponents has gone OVER the total.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Dallas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games against Washington - a real tension against Washington’s live three-game ATS cover streak and Dallas’s own six-game ATS non-cover streak; this specific head-to-head-at-home number argues the other way.

Injuries

    Overall

    Dallas’s recent head-to-head dominance and being home after an ugly loss both argue for a bounce-back performance, and that’s the intuitive read on this game. Washington’s own trend - a three-game cover streak as a road team - is a smaller sample, but it’s live and current, and it lines up with Jayden Daniels playing the full Week 1 game with no fresh injury concern. The total (50.5, the highest on the board) fits both teams’ OVER-leaning profiles cleanly - that’s the more straightforward way of how to approach this game than picking sides.

    Even though I said on the early lookahead show that I like Dallas laying the points here. Citing that this spread was almost identical to what the Cowboys were laying on the road against the Giants, compared to being back at home in Week 2.

    Even though that Dallas pick didn’t work out in Week 1, I think it was more about the New York Giants’ offense answering real questions - Malik Nabers looked healthy and Jaxson Dart looked good - in combination with Dallas’ stars failing to make huge plays. Dallas had the ball twice on offense in the second half, and scored twice. But their defense (dealing with more injuries) didn’t look much different than last year’s unit.

    I still don’t trust Washington’s offensive line on the road in a hostile, divisional environment, and I think Dallas scores more freely on this Commanders defense than Philadelphia did.

    I like Dallas ATS, but I have a stronger lean toward the total,  given how both of these teams have profiled creating shootout game environments.

    Props

    Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Dolphins +13.5

    Trends

    • 49ers ATS as home favorite since 2023: 11-13. 49ers O/U 2025-26 combined: 11-9. Dolphins O/U 2025-26 combined: 9-9.
    • Dolphins ATS in the last 10 games: 4-6.
    • Dolphins are on a two-game SU losing streak and a two-game ATS non-cover streak (2025 finale and Week 1 2026), extending into this week’s large-underdog spot.
    • Per DraftKings Sportsbook: San Francisco has failed to cover the spread in 15 of its last 16 games following a win - directly relevant, since the 49ers won in Week 1 and are now a 13.5-point home favorite.
    • 49ers are just 10-16-1 at home ATS since 2023.
    • This is a real tension against the situational case already made for laying the large number.

    Injuries

      Overall

      As Jonathon Jones noted, this Week 2 matchup pits the oldest team in the NFL (the 49ers) against the youngest team (the Dolphins).

      It’s the largest spread on the Week 2 board, and I think the situational case actually supports it more than a typical 13.5-point number would - Miami is starting a first-time starter behind a young offensive line against a healthier 49ers defense that just held Matthew Stafford, last year’s MVP, to one of his worst performances since joining the Rams. That’s not a favorable spot for Malik Willis by any measure.

      I’ll be honest, I don’t love saying this, but I said on the early lookahead show that I think the smart play is taking the points with Miami.

      San Francisco getting to Australia early was a smart Week 1 decision, not a Week 2 one - they had a full week to adjust to the time zone, and now they’re on a quick turnaround adjusting back to life in the United States. Two touchdowns is a lot to lay off that kind of travel swing, even against a team as bad as the Dolphins (that might be actively tanking based on how they built their roster).

      The 49ers have traditionally not covered big numbers well as home favorites - they play to survive and get to the next week, not to run up the score on purpose. They are also notorious for failing to cover the spread after big wins. San Francisco has failed to cover the spread in 15 of its last 16 games following a win.

      It’s not my best bet, but if forced to choose, I trust the process with Miami getting a number this large. I actually prefer the props in this game. If for some reason it’s much closer than the spread suggests (or stays within 14 points), Brock Purdy should have a field day passing.

      Miami arguably has the worst defense in the NFL, particularly in its secondary.

      Purdy has gone OVER 19.5 completions in seven out of the last 12 games and in four out of five home games. He completed 25 passes last week against the Rams. He also posted a sub-5.0 average depth of target (aDOT). If Purdy continues to operate more efficiently, he will crush this number. Kirk Cousins completed 21 of his 30 attempts last week against Miami (7.8 aDOT).

      This is a 5-star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet for Week 2.

      Props

      Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

      Betting Lines & Odds

      Erickson’s Picks: Bears -4.5 & Over 48.5 Points

      Trends

      • Bears’ 2025 full-season ATS: 12-6-1 (elite mark; Home 7-2-1).
      • Five of the last six meetings have been decided by a single score - a tight rivalry, in tension with this week’s 5.5-point line.
      • Both teams went OVER in Week 1; the total has moved up meaningfully, consistent with Minnesota’s defense allowing Jordan Love to throw for 387 passing yards in Week 1. And the Bears’ defense is arguably the worst in the NFL (allowing 37 points to the Panthers).
      • Public betting is 56% on Minnesota even as the line and total have both moved toward/with Chicago - reverse line movement, the same pattern seen in the Lions-Bills game this week.
      • Current streaks (through Week 1, 2026): The Vikings are on a six-game SU win streak.
      • Vikings are also 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings specifically at Chicago.
      • Vikings are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings, but have lost the last two games.
      • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, favorites have won the last nine matchups played at Soldier Field - directly relevant since Chicago is favored at home this week.
      • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
      • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, eight of the Vikings’ last 10 games have gone UNDER the total.

      Injuries

      • Minnesota: QB Kyler Murray is in the concussion protocol. Carson Wentz is expected to start (J.J. McCarthy dropped to QB3). Vikings are 3-3 ATS in Wentz starts since 2025 (small sample).

       

      Overall

      Minnesota’s six-game win streak is real and well-documented, but I don’t love walking into a game where the line and the public are disagreeing this clearly without a good explanation, and here there is one: Minnesota got bailed out last week by Green Bay’s implosion (refs, turnovers, etc.) after being down big.

      It was one of the wildest fourth-quarter collapses in Week 1. Green Bay led 22-10 after three quarters and 22-17 into the fourth quarter, but Minnesota scored 22 unanswered points in the final period to win 39-22 - fueled almost entirely by three separate Green Bay giveaways/failures in Vikings territory.

      A Green Bay interception in the end zone was wiped off the board by Green Bay’s own penalty, and Minnesota scored a touchdown two plays later. In the fourth quarter, Wentz’s pass intended for Jordan Addison was intercepted by Evan Williams and returned 17 yards - but a defensive holding penalty on Xavier McKinney was enforced, erasing the interception and handing Minnesota a fresh 1st-and-goal at the Packers’ 3-yard line instead of a turnover. Aaron Jones scored from there two plays later, and the ensuing 2-point conversion gave Minnesota its first lead of the game (25-22)

      A Green Bay field goal was also nullified by a penalty, resulting in an unusual outcome - it cost Green Bay points instead of earning them. A made 40-yard Trey Smack field goal in the fourth quarter was wiped out by a defensive offside penalty on Minnesota’s Dallas Turner, giving Green Bay a fresh set of downs instead of the three points - Green Bay went for it and was stuffed for no gain, turning a would-be field goal into zero points on the possession.

      The Vikings won despite being outgained by 180 total yards - the first win in franchise history by 15+ points while being outgained by 150+ total yards. Minnesota is the third team over the last 10 seasons to accomplish the feat, joining the 49ers (Week 11, 2025) and the Lions (Week 8, 2024), according to NGS.

      Carson Wentz is taking over as the team’s starting quarterback.

      There are too many red flags, and the market money has moved toward Chicago. The Bears’ own situational profile backs it up - a 12-6-1 ATS mark, elite by any measure, and specifically strong at home.

      I like laying the points with the Bears. Ben Johnson has shown he wants to win by as many points as possible; I don’t mind being on Chicago’s side of this number. I also floated on air that Caleb Williams has been one of the better ATS quarterbacks throughout his career, even before Johnson arrived - that’s a real, standing trend, not just a one-week thing. He’s 12-5-1 ATS at home for the Bears since 2024 - the best mark in the NFL. Not to mention, Johnson has had the upper hand versus Brian Flores’ defense. According to ESPN’s Benjamin Solak, Johnson is 5-1 versus Flores-led defenses.

      Worm made the case on the lookahead show that he’s essentially auto-betting the OVER in every Bears game until it fails once - not just the offense; he pointed out their defense has real issues too, and the numbers have consistently come in under what both units are capable of. I found that pretty convincing, especially with the total sitting at 48.5 after both teams combined for well over 90 points last week. Chicago laying the points plus the OVER is where we ended up.

      Props

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