You smell that? That’s the smell of the first full Sunday slate of NFL action. For those who are just tuning into my featured weekly BettingPros piece for the very first time, welcome! And for those coming back after last season…LFG. Glad to have you on board for another season of NFL betting action.
This weekly piece has a simple goal. Help you identify the best bets and player props for the Sunday main slate (as I hit all the prime-time games in their own stand-alone betting primers). You can find all my 2026 betting articles here.
What’s going to be different this year, beyond the intros (adding some personal touches), is the picks. I’m challenging myself to narrow down each main slate to five (ish) official picks: ATS/Total/ML. No more fluff. All gas. No brakes. Again, I’m bound to cover more than five actual bets in my analysis and breakdown of the marquee matchups. Five-six player props will also be included as the week progresses…even if they are added later in the week (injuries, man). But that will ensure all the games get covered in some capacity. Whether it’s an official play, a prop, or just a general lean.
For Week 1, we’ve got six official plays from the rip (I’ve had a lot of time thinking about these Week 1 matchups). And when in doubt…take the under.
The shift in 2026 is all about simplifying the process without sacrificing results. This will let me dive deeper into the games and trends I feel I have an advantage in… instead of forcing picks in matchups I don’t have a great read on. There are so many paths you can take to enrich your Sunday football experience, so let me be your guide. I’ve got my own fantasy football and betting knowledge, plus the tools on BettingPros to help push us over the top.
Here’s to starting 2026 on a high note. I’m looking forward to an extremely fun Sunday. My niece is turning one. Happy Birthday, Claire! Excited to celebrate on Sunday, sweating out all my moneyline bets and unders. Uncle Erickson knows best.
Because that’s the recipe for Week 1 (trends provided by BetMGM).
- Fade Big Favorites
- Back Road Dogs (specifically divisional ones)
- Home underdogs (divisional)
- Teams that were good ATS in 2025
- Since 2005, Week 1 unders have hit at a 55% rate.
LFG.
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For my thoughts on all the games on the Week 1 slate, be sure to check out the weekly lookahead lines show I do every week with Worm (Monday release following every Sunday slate) on the BettingPros YouTube Channel.
Week 1 NFL Betting Primer
Offical Plays
- Houston Texans ML (+108) vs. Buffalo Bills
- Tennessee Titans ML (-108) vs. New York Jets
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts Under 48.5 (-113)
- Minnesota Vikings ML (-115) vs. Green Bay Packers
- Miami Dolphins ML (+115) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-113) vs. Cleveland Browns
- Jonathan Taylor OVER 76.5 rushing yards vs. BAL (-115)
- Juwan Johnson OVER 42.5 receiving yards @ DET (-114)
- Greg Dulcich OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards @ LV (-122)
- Jalen Hurts UNDER 29.5 pass attempts VS WAS (-116)
- Quinshon Judkins UNDER 58.5 rushing yards
Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills
Betting Lines & Odds
Erickson’s Pick: Texans to win, straight up (moneyline)
Trends
- The home team has won each of the last 8 meetings in this series. Houston is the home team and is catching points.
- Texans finished 7-2 straight up at home in 2025.
- In 15 of 19 games last season, the Texans have covered +3.5 (79%).
- Houston has given Buffalo real trouble the last two seasons: road losses by 3 and 4 points (Oct. 2024: Texans 23, Bills 20; Nov. 2025: Texans 23, Bills 19).
- Josh Allen specifically has struggled against Houston across that stretch: 52.7% completion, 1 TD/2 INT, sacked 9 times combined in the losses.
- Each of the last five games between the Bills and Texans has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Since 2021, teams with an ATS percentage between 50 and 59% against prior playoff teams are 20-7 ATS, including 10-2 as a market favorite (BetMGM).
- Falcons, Texans, Vikings and Panthers qualify on the main Sunday slate
- Houston’s O/U record at home over 2024-2025 is 6-12 (6 overs, 12 unders) - a 66.7% Under rate at NRG Stadium across those two seasons.
- 2024 home games went 4-5 (Under-leaning, 55.6%), and 2025 home games went 2-7 - a much stronger 77.8%
- Early in the 2025 season, Houston opened 0-4 to the Under across their first four games league-wide (via SportsBettingDime).
- The Texans scored fewer than 40 combined points in 10 games in 2025.
Overall
The Houston Texans’ elite defense has given Josh Allen fits. The Bills QB has struggled in his last two matchups versus this defense, and I see no reason why 2026 will be much different. They added WR DJ Moore in the offseason, but it might not be enough to overcome the Texans’ suffocating defense. Houston was a Vegas home underdog (+6) and won outright last year versus Buffalo (Davis Mills started).
Meanwhile, CJ Stroud – coming off reportedly his best training camp as a pro – has a much better matchup versus a softer Bills’ defense. Under a new defensive coordinator, Jim Leonhard, who is switching the scheme to a 3-4 defense, Buffalo will have some growing pains early on. Advantage Texans (who were the 5th-most injured offense last season).
I also lean toward this game going under the total. These matchups have typically been more of a rock fight than an Old West shootout. I don’t need to sell anybody on Houston’s defense slowing down Buffalo, but keep in mind the Bills added to their defense this offseason. They added Bradley Chubb, CJ Gardner-Johnson, and Dee Alford at slot CB. They should have a healthy Ed Oliver. Drafted impact defensive players. They were the 4th-most injured defense last season.
But without second-year WR Jayden Higgins (out for the season with a torn ACL) and OT Braden Smith on short-term IR…Houston’s offense still might stumble out of the gate. If David Montgomery is the engine of this Week 1 offense (especially given the Bills’ poor track record of stopping the run), this game could SLOG.
Tennessee Titans vs. New York Jets
Betting Lines & Odds
Erickson’s Pick: Titans to win, straight up (moneyline)
Trends
- Robert Saleh returns to face his old team in his Titans debut against the Jets, who fired him in Oct. 2024.
- Retread head coaches (previously an NFL HC elsewhere) have covered better at home than on the road since 2020: 48-43 ATS (52.7%) at home vs. 47-52 ATS (47.5%) on the road via VSIN. Saleh, as a retread HC, fits the favorable home bucket directly in this spot.
- Two defenses overhauled this offseason face off, supporting the lower-scoring game script.
- The Titans have scored first in eight of their last nine games.
Injuries
Titans
- Cedric Gray (LB - concussion) - Questionable
Jets
- Breece Hall (RB - groin) - Questionable - trending toward playing per NFL.com
- Joseph Ossai (DE - foot) - Questionable - week-to-week per Rick Cimini
Overall
I’m taking the Titans to win at home in Week 1 versus the Jets. Robert Saleh is stepping in as the new HC, with a totally revamped defense (especially in the secondary). Just a few notable additions: John Franklin-Meyers, Jermaine Johnson, Anthony Hill, Alontae Taylor, Cor'Dale Flott, and Keldric Faulk. Saleh’s Jets defenses were borderline elite and helped him squeak out 7-win seasons with a carousel of QBs, including Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco, and Trevor Siemian.
And let’s not forget how he was able to make chicken salad out of chicken sh*t last year with the injury-plagued 49ers.
Losing Gray (in concussion protocol after suffering a concussion in a UTV accident, according to Turron Davenport) is a big deal given Gray's 164 tackles were the fourth most in the NFL this past season, per ESPN.
Tennessee also hired Brian Daboll as the new offensive coordinator, and he has a track record of success with developing young QBs (Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, Jaxson Dart, etc.). Cam Ward (despite his preseason woes) is slated to see a massive improvement in Year 2 with better coaching and actual weapons to throw to, between rookie Carnell Tate and free agent acquisition Wan'Dale Robinson.
Saleh said after the second preseason game, the team ran its base vanilla offense. Regarding Tate: “When it's time to gameplan and get people the rock, we'll get him the rock.” He also praised the top-5 overall pick from this year’s draft for a strong training camp.
Now back to Ward.
The former first overall pick faced terrible circumstances as a rookie. Even so, during his last 7 games: 11 TDs (two rushing and 9 passing) and 1 pick. We see teams go from worst to first in the division every single year, and the Titans fit the bill to a tee as a major surprise team in 2026. Keep in mind that the Titans faced a BRUTAL schedule during Ward’s rookie year. Texans twice, Broncos, Rams, Chargers, Seattle, Jaguars twice, Browns, Chiefs.
Per Sharp Football, Ward faced the most difficult schedule of pass defenses in 2025. They also played in 7 one-score games, going 2-5.
The Jets secondary, featuring the likes of rookie D‘Angelo Ponds, Nashon Wright, Azareye'h Thomas, and Brandon Stephens, will be a breath of fresh air for the Titans QB. Even if the second-year signal caller does throw an interception (regression for the Jets to get an interception will happen sooner rather than later), I expect the Titans to take care of business at home.
Props
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
Betting Lines & Odds
Erickson’s Pick: Under 48.5 (total)
Trends
- League-wide Week 1 Under bias: Unders have hit 55% of the time since 2005 per BetMGM, and 12 of last year’s Week 1 games went Under.
- NFL Week 1 Opener Unders – 54.6% since 2014.
- The Ravens have brand-new offensive/head-coaching setups calling plays for the first time together: Ravens HC Jesse Minter (hired after John Harbaugh was fired in Jan. 2026) and OC Declan Doyle are running Lamar Jackson’s offense for the first time in a live game - new-scheme Week 1s tend to play cautiously early.
- Daniel Jones (Colts) is making his first regular-season start since tearing his Achilles in Week 14 of 2025 - reportedly fully healthy, but first-game-back QBs are a real caution flag for offensive rhythm/scoring pace.
- Stud CB Sauce Gardner bolsters an Indianapolis secondary that should make Baltimore work for its yardage. The Colts’ defense overall is just underrated with Sauce, a healthy Charvarius Ward, and a dynamic defensive tackle duo of Grover Stewart/DeForest Buckner plugging up the interior.
Injuries
Colts
- Daniel Jones (QB - Achilles (2025 tear)) - Off report - fully cleared, first action back
- Alec Pierce (WR - recovering from offseason ankle/heel surgery) - Expected to play
- A.J. Haulcy (S (rookie) - ankle) - Uncertain - HC Steichen: “we’ll see how the week goes” (9/8)
Ravens
- Zay Flowers (WR - lower body) - Questionable, expected to play per beat reporter
- Nnamdi Madubuike (DT - neck) - Questionable - genuinely uncertain per HC Minter
- Teddye Buchanan (LB - knee) - Questionable
Overall
Taking the under in any dome game featuring Lamar Jackson is terrifying (especially in Week 1 with a new offensive play caller). Fast track in Indy has been as advertised. Seventeen of the Colts’ last 26 games at Lucas Oil Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
And unfortunately, the line movement is not working in our favor – given the total has dropped from 49.5 points to 48.5 points (47.5 on some other sportsbooks).
And the 2025 Colts beat down on Jesse Minter's strong Chargers defense last season - 38 to 24 (most points LAC allowed all season). I think all the question marks regarding the Colts’ offense between their QB and WRs are very real. So to me, I think this just might be a monster 30-touch Jonathan Taylor game to keep pressure off Jones in his first action back. JT was very productive versus Minter’s defense last season, and this team tends to ride or die on their workhorse RB. 16 carries, 94 yards, and 3 TDs last year versus the Bolts.
Usually a run-heavy game script backs the under…but not when it’s a guy like Taylor. Especially against a defensive front like Baltimore…where DT Nnamdi Madubuike is still not a lock to play in Week 1 (coming off a season-ending neck injury). Calais Campbell can only do so much as a 40-year-old defensive tackle.
Worm mentioned this in the Week 1 early lookahead show that this was his favorite UNDER on the slate. He also mentioned this Mike Madonald/Minter-style defense allows some rushing production, which I think the Colts will gladly jump at with a healthy Taylor.
A strong run game also alleviates the potential pass rush of the Ravens’ newcomer off the edge, Trey Hendrickson. He will have his fair share of opportunities against new Colts RT, Jalen Travis, in Week 1.
Conversely, I don’t think the Ravens’ run game will be as productive. I highlighted the Stewart/Buckner dynamic in the trends section as major upgrades to the Colts’ run defense. Pair that with the Ravens starting Jovaughn Gwyn at center (major downgrade from Tyler Linderbaum), and that’s a cause for concern. Baltimore is set to have three new starters on the offensive line, all in the interior.
And Derrick Henry did show some signs of slowing down last season.
- Career-low elusive rating in 2025- middle of the pack last season.
- 14th-lowest missed tackles forced per attempt
- YPC falls from 5.6 YPC to 4.7 without tight end Charlie Kolar (Chargers TE1).
- From Weeks 1-10, Henry’s missed tackle-forced rate of 12.8% was the lowest among running backs (min. 60 carries).
But I’d be lying if I wasn’t afraid of what Henry could do if he gets to the second level against a lighter LB core featuring Akeem Davis-Gathers and rookie CJ Allen.
Process still says we want to lean UNDERs in Week 1, and as one of the highest totals on the slate, that is still my preferred way to attack this matchup (along with JT props).
Speaking of which. Take the OVER on Taylor’s 76.5 rushing yards prop. He cleared this number in 54% of his games last season with Daniel Jones, including 5/7 at home. He has averaged over 100 rushing yards per game at home during his NFL career.
Props
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns
Betting Lines & Odds
Erickson’s Pick: Jaguars -7.5
Trends
- The Browns are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games
- Cleveland traded All-Pro EDGE Myles Garrett to the Rams this offseason - a major downgrade to the Browns’ pass rush and overall defense.
- Browns QB Deshaun Watson is making his first regular-season start since October 2024, coming off a torn Achilles that required two surgeries - first-start rust is a genuine risk factor working in Jacksonville’s favor.
- Jaguars went 7-2 ATS at home last season (first) and finished first in average scoring margin at home (+13.7).
- The Browns ranked fourth-worst last season (-11.6) in average scoring margin on the road last season.
Injuries
Jaguars
- Jakobi Meyers (WR - hand/wrist/thumb) - Trending toward playing
- LeQuint Allen Jr. (RB - soft-tissue) - GTD
- Cole Van Lanen (RT – knee) – GTD
Browns
- Maliek Collins (DT – Quad) – Limited
- Teven Jenkins (OG – Back) – Limited
Overall
You will only get so many opportunities to fade Deshaun Watson.
And against the Jaguars, a team that definitely hasn’t gotten enough publicity after how strong they finished the 2025 season? This one is an absolute layup for me. Last season, the Jaguars ran up the score on bad teams like the Titans and Jets. Jacksonville went 7-2 ATS at home last season and finished first in average scoring margin at home (+13.7).
The Browns are a completely different defense on the road. The Browns ranked fourth-worst last season (-11.6) in average scoring margin on the road last season.
No Myles Garrett, and no defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. Linebacker Carson Schwesinger only recently returned to practice after missing nearly four weeks with an undisclosed injury. DT Maliek Collins is coming off a torn quad injury (still listed on the injury report).
The Jaguars finished 2025 with the third-toughest matchup against RBs. Fourth-lowest YPC. Fewest rushing yards allowed. They have a very similar starting defense, sans linebacker Devin Lloyd, CB Greg Newsome, and S Andrew Wingard from last season. They also traded for DL Ruke Orhorhoro to further bolster their front-7. Quinshon Judkins surpassed 58.5 rushing yards once in his last five road games during his rookie season.
The Brownies, as touchdown underdogs behind a brand-new starting O-line with Watson under center, are a recipe for an offensive disaster. Bad OLs don't travel. And OG Teven Jenkins is already banged up.
Lay the points with DUVAL. Wouldn’t surprise me if they win by at least two touchdowns.
Props
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
Betting Lines & Odds
Erickson’s Pick: Vikings to win, straight up (moneyline)
Trends
- When the 2026 schedule was released in May, Green Bay opened as 1.5-point favorites (Vikings +1.5) - Minnesota WAS the “divisional home underdog”. The number has since moved a full 3 points to Vikings -1.5.
- Micah Parsons (Packers) is confirmed OUT for Week 1 - on PUP with a knee/ACL issue, targeting a return around Week 5. Green Bay went 0-4 (0-5-1 ATS, one push in their last six games) the rest of the way after his Week 15 injury last season.
- Vikings are 4-2 ATS within the division and have won 9 of their last 13 home games.
- GB is just 3-7 ATS on the road in their last 10 appearances (third-worst).
- Eight of the Vikings’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Since 2021, teams with an ATS percentage between 50 and 59% against prior playoff teams are 20-7 ATS, including 10-2 as a market favorite (BetMGM). The Vikings are the lone “favored” qualifier on the main Sunday slate
- Kyler Murray – Per StatMuse – is 3-2-1 SU in six career Week 1 appearances (5-1 ATS).
Overall
I was all over the Vikings ML play when these Week 1 lines first dropped back in May. Divisional home underdog? Easy money. The lines have since moved dramatically in favor of the Vikings, after it was announced that Kyler Murray would be the team’s starting QB. Murray has always started seasons hot, just to fizzle out in the second half (right around late October/early November when a certain video game FPS has its annual release). The new Vikings QB is 9-11-1 in September and 15-9 in October for a 24-20-1 combined record through the first two months of the year (53%). The remaining months? 14-28 (33%). Woof.
But backing the Vikings is more about fading the Packers. They couldn’t be trusted to win any games last year without star edge rusher Micah Parsons. They were also bad on the road (4-6 SU).
The Packers also lost their DC, Jeff Hafley, replacing him with former Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon.
I think the Gannon matchup against Kyler Murray is fascinating. We discussed it more in-depth on the Tailgate Show, where both Alfredo Brown and Derek Brown cited it as a reason to be in on GB in this spot. But if Gannon is familiar with Murray’s strengths and weaknesses, Murray knows this defense as well (which also wasn’t particularly great in Arizona). The argument works both ways, in my opinion.
I think the Minnesota run game is being undersold here. RB Jordan Mason got a lot of hype this offseason, and I like his odds to be even more productive behind a healthy Vikings offensive line. This Packers’ DL is being front-lined by a lot of players coming off season-ending injuries (Devonte Wyatt). FA acquisition and former Vikings player Javon Hargrave is 33 years old and missed a lot of training camp with a knee injury (listed on the Week 1 injury report).
And defensively, Minnesota is never an easy out with defensive coordinator Brian Flores dialing up his unique pressures. This Packers OL (bottom-5 by consensus rankings) will have its work cut out for them. Jordan Morgan is not only making the switch from guard to tackle, but he is also dealing with a lingering knee issue. One of just three Packers’ offensive linemen who are battling injuries. Minnesota ranked first in pressure rate in 2025 (44.5%).
Jordan Morgan was a limited participant in practice today with a knee injury. On the first injury report of the season for the Packers, three of their preferred starting offensive linemen-Aaron Banks, Zach Bako-Bewele, and Morgan-are hindered by knee issues.
— Zach Jacobson (@zachjacobson) September 9, 2026
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Betting Lines & Odds
Erickson’s Pick: Dolphins to win, straight up (moneyline) - “Upset of the Week”
Trends
- Kirk Cousins was named the Raiders’ new starting QB for 2026, over rookie Fernando Mendoza.
- The Dolphins beat a Cousins-led Falcons team 34-10 last season.
- Las Vegas’s new HC is Klint Kubiak and Miami’s new HC is Jeff Hafley, and both are making their first NFL head-coaching debuts this week.
- Per VegasInsider: Rookie HCs are 42-39-2 ATS in home openers since 2002, but just 8-14-1 ATS in home openers since 2016 - and rookie HCs favored -3.5 or more at home specifically are only 10-11 ATS (despite going 15-6 SU). The Raiders are only 3-point favorites.
Injuries
Raiders
- Ashton Jeanty (RB - ankle) - Questionable - Expected to play
- Brock Bowers (TE - out)
Overall
I’ve been on the Miami Dolphins’ upset train at Las Vegas since the schedule release in May. And that was with full acknowledgment of the roster discrepancies between these two franchises. The Raiders have a better team on paper, and they were projected to have the best offensive player in the game (Brock Bowers). But with Bowers out due to his meniscus, I feel even more strongly about Miami coming away with the upset.
Last year without their star TE, the Raiders looked lost offensively. They went 2-3 SU/ATS, but their point differential was insane. They were outscored by 77 points (15.4 PPG). Losing him matters a lot, given the Dolphins’ glaring weakness is their secondary.
Do the Raiders have the pass-catchers between Michael Mayer, Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor, and Jack Bech to take advantage of the league’s worst secondary? With Kirk Cousins under center? I remain skeptical given what we saw from Cousins last season.
His 6.4 YPA and 84.8 passer rating were the second-lowest of his career last season (same with aDOT). He doesn't have the same power in his throws since his Achilles injury: 34th in EPA/play, 26th in success rate, 28th in completion rate, 32nd in YPA.
Miami does have some talent at LB and on their DL (Chop Robinson, Jordyn Brooks, Jacob Rodriguez), so I think they can at least do something against Cousins, given his subpar weaponry. Although they will not have last year’s first-rounder, Kenneth Grant.
I also do not fear the Raiders’ defense in any capacity under their new DC, Rob Leonard. He’s been the DL coach since 2023. Leonard is an unproven commodity who will face a new-look Malik Willis Miami offense sure to feature plenty of new wrinkles Las Vegas can’t fully prepare for. Leonard’s scheme is similar to Seattle’s Mike Macdonald, which suggests plenty of QB rushes and RB/TE targets. Exactly what you want to hear if you are the Dolphins’ OC, Bobby Slowik. Expect plenty of Willis rushing attempts and De’Von Achane targets out of the backfield.
Hafley also coached the opposing Raiders’ new starting LB, Quay Walker, in Green Bay. Overall, the Raiders’ interior defensive line projects as a weakness Miami can exploit. Because I also think the Dolphins’ OL is underrated. The projected starting 5 is one of the league’s youngest units, which underscores their upside.
All in all, the 3-point line just suggests to me the Raiders are the home team. Neither roster is good, and it’s two rookie head coaches going H2H (where the home coach has struggled to cover the number). When I don’t see a clear advantage with the favored team (especially in Week 1), I love the underdog here.
Give me the unknown upside of Willis with Achane, Greg Dulcich, and some plucky rookie WRs against a 38-year-old immobile QB without his best receiver. Willis ranked first in EPA/play last season. Cousins ranked 34th.
Fins. Up.
And speaking of Dulcich…let’s talk props.
Dulcich OVER 24.5 yards. He hit the over in his last 5 games played with the Miami Dolphins last season. Over 21.5 receiving yards in all but one of his last nine games played. The line has moved since it opened at 16.5 yards, but I still like the over play here against the Raiders LB/S room. Isaiah Pola-Mao was PFF’s 4th-worst graded coverage safety last season. Jeremy Chinn allowed the 8th-highest passer rating when targeted. Walker allowed the 5th-most yards as a coverage linebacker last season in Green Bay.
Props
Remaining Matchups
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Betting Lines & Odds
Erickson’s Pick: Steelers -4.5, Under 41.5
Trends
- The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four Week 1 road games.
- Falcons starting QB Michael Penix Jr. is OUT for Week 1 with a third ACL tear - newly signed Tua Tagovailoa is expected to be the Week 1 starter, a significant continuity downgrade with this specific roster.
- Atlanta is also down two starting edge rushers: Jalon Walker (torn ACL in camp, season-ending IR) and James Pearce Jr. (suspended through Week 9) - a thin pass rush heading into Acrisure Stadium.
- Since 2024, the Steelers are 6-2 ATS at home as a favorite.
- Since 2024, the Steelers are 11-6 ATS overall at home.
- The Steelers have won the first half in each of their last seven of their last 8 games at Acrisure Stadium
Injuries
Steelers
- Joey Porter Jr. (CB – Back) - Wants a new contract and might not play, according to Andrew Fillipponi.
Falcons
- Tua Tagovailoa (QB – Oblique) appeared to suffer an oblique injury during practice on Thursday
- Jawaan Taylor (RT – Knee)
Overall
This is such a tough spot for Atlanta. On the road outdoors with a less-than-100 % Tua Tagovailoa. Steelers play better at home, and I think this one is a layup. This was one of Seth’s best bets on our Week 1 BettingPros betting show, and I see no reason to go in the opposite direction. Screams like a positive Rico Dowdle game script where he can feast as a rusher and find the end zone against a lackluster Falcons’ defensive line.
Props
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Betting Lines & Odds
Erickson’s Pick: Tampa Bay +3.5
Injuries
Buccaneers
- Sean Tucker (RB – Hamstring)
Bengals
- Shermar Stewart (DE – Knee)
- DJ Turner (CB – Hamstring)
Trends:
- This unusually high 50.5+ total lines up with Cincinnati’s 2025 defense: 30th in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed.
- Tampa Bay was one of the league’s worst ATS teams in 2025 - 5-12 ATS, tied for the league’s worst mark.
- The Buccaneers failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games.
- Each of the Bengals’ last four season openers have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Week 1 carries a mild historical Under lean overall (~55% since 2005) - a modest counterweight to how this total is being priced.
- Twelve of the Bengals’ last 16 home games have gone OVER the total points line (6-3 in 2025 toward the Over; 12-5 since 2024; 8-3 as home favorite toward Over)
- Since 2023, the Buccaneers are
- 61% ATS as an underdog
- 63% ATS on the road
- 68% as a road underdog
Overall
When do we bet on the Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield? When they are underdogs on the road. When do we fade the Bengals? Week 1. Take the Bucs with the points.
New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions
Betting Lines & Odds
Erickson’s Pick: Over 49.5
Injuries
Saints
- Cameron Jordan (EDGE – Hamstring) – Ruled out.
Lions
- Brian Branch (S -PUP)
- Kerby Joseph (S -PUP)
Trends
- 16 of the Lions’ last 23 home games have gone over the total - and Detroit’s covered that Over as a favorite in 12 of its last 15 home games as the chalk.
- The Lions’ last 34 home games have averaged 55.1 points, with 71% of those games (25-of-35) hitting at least 51 points. Ford Field is still the Coors Field of the NFL.
- Detroit has hit the Over in 12 of its last 13 Week 1 games and gone 7-1 ATS in its last 8 September games.
- New Orleans is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Week 1 games.
- New Orleans is committed to 2025 2nd-round pick Tyler Shough at QB - won 4 of his final 5 rookie starts, but the offense averaged under 20 points/game across those 9 starts. Very easy schedule against bottom-ranked teams/defenses.
- Eight of the Saints’ last nine games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
Never saw a game total in Detroit that I didn’t like the over in. Two dome teams going head-to-head…points are coming. Shootout game environment. All the overs.
The Lions’ secondary is still a total mess. Starting safety duo of Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are still hurt. And this Saints’ pass rush outside of Chase Young is non-existent. Veteran edge rusher Cameron Jordan has already been ruled out with a hamstring injury.
And that brings me to my favorite player prop: Saints tight end Juwan Johnson over 42.5 receiving yards. After the team moved on from Rashid Shaheed last season, Johnson cleared this mark in 5 of his last 8 games. As the clear-cut No. 2 receiver on the Saints offense behind Chris Olave, Johnson should FEAST in a high-scoring matchup. Johnson finished 5th in catches (77) and third in yards (889) among TEs in 2025. But he only scored three TDs. TD regression hitting in Week 1? You bet.
Props:
Chicago Bears versus Carolina Panthers
Betting Lines & Odds
Erickson’s Pick: Over 47.5, Panthers +3
Trends
- Carolina was excellent as a home underdog in 2025 - 8 times in that spot, covering 6 and winning 5 outright - and they’re a home dog again here (+3.5).
- Panthers’ O-line is thin: LT Ikem Ekwonu (torn knee ligament, opens on PUP) and RT Taylor Moton (blood clots, Reserve/NFI) are both out, forcing two new starters in - real risk to Bryce Young’s protection.
- 2025 ATS form was strong for both sides: Bears went 12-7 ATS, Panthers went 11-7 ATS.
- Bears went 6-2-1 to the Over on the road in 2025; Panthers went 5-4 Over at home but 10-8 Under overall for the season.
- Twelve of the Panthers’ last 16 games at Bank of America Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Panthers have covered the spread in each of their last 11 games following a loss (covered 14 straight as underdogs following a loss).
The Panthers are 14-7 over/under after a loss since 2024. - Eight of the Panthers’ last 12 games at home as underdogs have gone over the total points line
Injuries
Bears
- Rome Odunze (WR – Calf)
- Ozzy Trapilo (OT – Knee)
Overall:
The Panthers are coming off a playoff loss and catching points at home against the most hyped team during the preseason. Take the underdog, and bet the over. Bank of America Stadium isn’t the Coors Field of the NFL, but it’s the Coors Lite version. Chicago might have the worst defense in the NFL that even Bryce Young and company can put points on.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Betting Lines & Odds
Erickson’s Pick: Cardinals +9.5
Trends
- Arizona’s 2025 season completely collapsed - finished 3-14 with a franchise-record 9-game losing streak to close the year, got HC Jonathan Gannon fired, and released Kyler Murray (now Minnesota’s starter).
- By contrast, the Chargers return everything intact: HC Jim Harbaugh and QB Justin Herbert, coming off a second straight playoff berth under Harbaugh. But they also added OC Mike McDaniel as an upgrade from Greg Roman.
- NFL underdogs have covered 56.8% of Week 1 games since 2019 (road dogs 59.0%, underdogs of 6+ points 60.7%) - a legitimate situational trend working against laying double digits here, regardless of how bad Arizona looked closing out 2025.
- Rookie head coaches have struggled in the large underdog role, going 27-114 SU (19%) and 67-74 ATS (47%) when catching 7 points or more since 2017 (VSIN).
- Five of the Chargers’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Cardinals are 4-8 against the spread (ATS) with Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback (1-8 in the last nine starts). They are 9-4 toward the OVER.
- The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
- In 2025, Arizona was within one score in all but seven games (2-8 record in close games).
- Trey McBride has scored at least one touchdown in 8 of the Cardinals’ last 9 games as road underdogs
Injuries
Cardinals
- Jeremiyah Love (RB – Ankle)
- Garrett Williams (CB – Achilles)
Chargers
- Keaton Mitchell (RB – Hamstring)
Overall
I love the Chargers in 2026, but laying this many points for no home-field advantage feels like a trap. The Arizona Cardinals defense is much healthier than it was last season, and they have enough offensive weapons for a backdoor cover. They added a lot of defensive depth upfront this offseason, and the Bolts will be starting a rookie center in Week 1.
I won’t go as far as Arizona winning outright, but I think they might give those Chargers’ Survivor picks quite the scare. These late-afternoon window games can get weird, and it would be so on brand for the Chargers to come out flat as 9.5-point favorites.
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Betting Lines & Odds
Erickson’s Pick: Eagles -5.5, Under 44.5
Trends
- Eight of the Eagles’ last 10 games have gone under the total points line (the two overs coming versus the Washington Commanders)
- The Eagles are 11-22-2 ATS when their defense has allowed 20+ points since the start of last season.
- The Eagles are 6-14 over/under at home since the start of 2024 (fewer than 44 points per game).
- Thirteen of the Eagles’ last 17 home games have gone under the total points line.
- Philly has scored 26-plus points in four of the last five games versus the Commanders, coached by Dan Quinn.
- The Eagles have won 11 of their last 12 home games against NFC East opponents.
- The Eagles are 22-5-2 ATS when their defense has allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of 2024 (75%).
- The Eagles are 6-13 O/U at home since the start of 2024 (<44 PPG).
- 12 of the Eagles’ last 16 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- When Washington allows 20 points or fewer on defense, they are 12-4 toward the Under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 30-8 toward the OVER (79%).
- The Commanders have lost 10 of their last 12 games.
Injuries
Eagles
- Jonathan Greenard (EDGE – Pectoral)
Commanders
- K’Lavon Chaisson (EDGE – Knee)
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB – Groin)
- Odafe Oweh (EDGE – Calf)
Overall
Philadelphia Eagles’ home games lean toward the under. And with an elite Eagles defense facing Washington’s bad offensive line, I don’t think this will be a high-scoring affair. Philly is unveiling a brand-new offense under Sean Mannion, so there’s bound to be some growing pains. It’s still a new install of an offense, so I’d expect them to dial up a fast pace of play.
Take the under at the Linc, and lay the points with the home team.
Given that, I love the under on the Eagles’ QB pass attempts. Mannion comes from the Green Bay Packers coaching tree – notorious for never letting Jordan Love cook. We should see something similar with Jalen Hurts in Week 1. Hurts has gone under 29.5 pass attempts in 7 of his last 10 starts with Lane Johnson at RT - and the Eagles O-line’s healthy again entering this matchup. They should be able to rely on the ground game to take care of business, and the projections agree (27 pass attempts). 5-star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet.
Props
