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NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Week 2)

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Week 1 gave us plenty of overreactions, surprises, and betting lessons. Not a great week for me, going 1-4 on the official plays. Had a few leans that ended up working (along with a strong 2-0 record on live unders from the BettingPros Discord) – so hopefully I swayed you in the right direction (and far away from the Dolphins).

Now it's time to turn the page and attack the Sunday slate for Week 2. Whether you're building Same Game Parlays (SGPs), locking in best bets against the spread, or hunting for value in the player props market, we've got you covered.

This primer breaks down every matchup with actionable angles - sides, totals, live bet leans, and player props - to help you get ahead of the market.

Plus, with the new BettingPros App 3.0, you'll get instant alerts when a line hits your target, so you never miss the best number.

Check out our proven NFL Betting Systems, ride the momentum (or fade the noise) from Week 1, and set up your card for Sunday.

NFL Week 2 Betting Primer (2025)

Top Favorites:

  • Lions -6.5
  • Steelers -3
  • Broncos -2.5

Top Underdogs:

  • Patriots +2.5
  • Browns +12

Top Totals:

  • DET/CHI over 46.5
  • NO/SF under 40.5
  • BUF/NYJ over 47.5

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions – Sunday, 1:00 PM ET - FOX

BettingPros Consensus Odds:


Erickson’s Pick: Game Total Over 46.5, Lean Lions -6.5

Confidence:  ★★★ (3 out of 5)

Why:

  • Lions bounced back spot after a tough Week 1; offense gets a softer matchup.
  • Bears come off a short week, giving Detroit a rest advantage.
  • Ben Johnson’s revenge game - expect aggressive play calling from both sides.
  • Lean: Detroit as the favorite - strong home bounce-back spot.

Trends

Sides:

  • The Bears have lost each of their last 11 games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
  • The Bears have lost 11 of their last 12 games.
  • The Bears are 13-12-1 ATS and 11-15 straight up in their last 26 games.
  • The Bears have lost nine of their last 10 road games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in 15 of the Bears’ last 22 games.
  • The Lions have won each of their last 10 games following a loss
  • The Lions are 26-12 ATS as favorites.
  • They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 22-11 ATS over their last 33 games (70%).
  • The Lions have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last eight home games following a loss.
  • The Lions have won each of their last 10 games following a loss

Totals:

  • The average total in the Lions' last 29 home games has been 55.7 points; 73% (21/29) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Five of the Lions’ last six games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Lions' last 16 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Bears' last 11 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Bears are 15-8-1 under the point total in their last 24 games.

Overall

Unders DOMINATED in Week 1. And of course, one of my best bets was on the game total under for NYJ-PIT, which was the only over on the Sunday slate before SNF. You truly hate to see it. So, naturally, in our regression world, we will likely see some more overs in Week 2. There's no better place to search for an over than AT the Coors Field of the NFL...Ford Field.

The Lions offense always plays better at home – four of the Lions’ last six road games have gone under the total - so I'd brace for an offensive rebound in Week 2. Just too much talent on this Lions roster.

The average total in the Lions' last 29 home games has been 55.7 points; 73% (21/29) of the games have scored at least 51 points.

Detroit is going to score points. The Bears’ CBs are injured, although it seems like Jaylon Johnson will return after missing Week 1. And when they are out there, it's in press man coverage. According to Next Gen Stats, the Bears aligned their cornerbacks in press coverage on 38.8% of their coverage snaps in Week 1 against the Vikings.

New Bears Defensive Coordinator Dennis Allen has a history of pressing his corners. Last season, the Saints’ defense, under Allen, aligned their cornerbacks in press at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL (29.7%) prior to his dismissal after Week 9.

In 2024, Lions wide receivers faced press coverage at the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL (18.6%) but averaged 10.1 yards per target (2nd-most) and a league-high 76.4% catch rate when given less than three yards of cushion.

Hello Jameson Williams, ladders.

I also think the Bears will remain aggressive in Ben Johnson's return to Ford Field. Chicago's offense was up-and-down in Week 1, but clearly, there's a path to an offensive ceiling.

Both defenses play a lot of man coverage and press, which can lead to very boom-or-bust results.

Prop Angles

  • Expect Caleb Williams to do plenty of scrambling (similar to Monday Night) against the Lions' heavy man coverage. If Williams hits on a few more throws he left on the field last week, we could see some fireworks. He has over 25.5 rushing yards in 7 of his last 10 games, including both games versus the Lions last season (34 and 39 rushing yards).
  • Jameson Williams went for 143 yards and five receptions in his last matchup versus the Bears in 2024.
  • Sam LaPorta scored twice versus the Bears at home in 2024. Last week, LaPorta compiled nine targets, six receptions, 79 yards while running a route on 88% of dropbacks. Also had two red-zone targets but didn't score; positive TD regression coming.

Erickson’s Props:

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens – Sunday, 1:00 PM ET - CBS

BettingPros Consensus Odds: 

Erickson’s Pick: Browns +12

Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

Why:

  • Ravens lay a massive number here, but divisional dogs historically cover at the high of a number.
  • Baltimore's effort fluctuates - dominant vs good teams, flat vs bad ones (especially off a heartbreaking loss).
  • Browns catching double-digit plus points feels like value.
  • Lean: Browns +12 - line inflated for divisional matchup.

Trends

Sides:

  • The home team has covered the spread in each of the Ravens’ last four games.
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in 11 of their last 18 games.
  • Baltimore is 18-7 on the moneyline as home favorites but just 12-13 ATS as home favorites and 9-4-1 ATS as home favorites in their last 14 (5-3-1 ATS as home favorites in 2024).
  • In each of the Ravens’ last seven games, the first score has been a Ravens Touchdown.
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in 12 of their last 15 games following a loss.
  • The favorites have won the first half in each of the last 11 games between the Browns and Ravens.
  • The Browns have lost each of their last eight road games.
  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in 15 of their last 20 games.

Totals:

  • Each of the Ravens’ last seven games following a loss has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Ravens are 15-5 toward the Over since the start of 2024 (12 of last 16 over).
  • Five of the Browns’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line (11 of last 17)
  • Of the Browns' last 19 road games, 14 have gone over the total points line.
  • The Browns are 7-13-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 21 road appearances as underdogs.

Overall

We all know the Ravens are the better team. In fact, Baltimore probably has the best roster in the NFL. But the Browns showed in Week 1 that they won't be an easy out against any opponent - let alone a divisional one. They shut down the Bengals offense completely in the second half, and I think they could pose some problems for Baltimore. Not enough to win, but more than cover the 12-point spread.

Cleveland is not afraid to let Joe Flacco sling it all across the yard, and that means no double-digit cover is safe entering the fourth quarter for those backing the Ravens. I love the Browns in this spot, with Week 2 feeling like a prime let-down spot for the Ravens. Baltimore consistently plays to its level of competition. Against the Bills, it's the best of the Ravens. But against the lowly Brownies, I think they might fail to live up to expectations. Case in point, they were in this exact position last year. Lost a heart-breaker on the road in Week 1 to the Chiefs. Come back home versus the Raiders...as 9-point favorites in Week 2. Lose outright. Take the Brownies with a surplus of points. They beat the Ravens as nine-point underdogs (albeit at home) last season. The Browns beat Baltimore in Baltimore in 2023.

Prop Angles

  • All Cedric Tillman has done is out-produce Jerry Jeudy when both guys are healthy. Jeudy already has a target on his back from the Ravens’ secondary after boldly claiming that there are no challenges in facing the Ravens’ secondary this week. The Browns WR led the team in air yards in Week 1, but still managed just five receptions for 66 yards. Joe Flacco generated a 49 passer rating when throwing to Jeudy (the worst among all Browns WRs in Week 1). Because Jeudy (as he often does) had two more drops. He had one catch in the entire first half (although he did pick up two DPI calls), and all four of his other receptions came in the fourth quarter. I’m taking the under on his 4.5 receptions.
  • Three other Browns players had 5-plus receptions in Week 1, and I’d expect to see more of David Njoku this week. Jeudy went over 4.5 receptions in just 50% of his games last season with Njoku and Tillman in the lineup.

Erickson’s Props:

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys – Sunday, 1:00 PM ET - FOX

BettingPros Consensus Odds: 

Erickson’s Pick: Cowboys -4.5 (lean under 44.5)

Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)

Why:

  • Giants' offense couldn't move the ball in Week 1; O-line still a major concern with Andrew Thomas’ injury.
  • Dallas pressured Jalen Hurts heavily in Week 1 without Micah Parsons - Russell Wilson may struggle behind weak protection.
  • Giants' defense is underrated.
  • Lean: Under 44.5 - divisional grind, low total makes sense.

Trends

Sides:

  • The Cowboys have won each of their last eight games against the Giants.
  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games as home favorites against NFC East opponents.
  • The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 16 games.
  • The Cowboys have scored first in six of their last seven games.
  • The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 home games.
  • Dallas went 8-1 at home in 2023. They went 2-7 at home in 2024.
  • They are 7-4 ATS as home favorites since 2023.
  • Dallas is 9-4 ATS in the division since 2023.
  • In each of the Cowboys' last seven home games, their opponents have scored last.
  • The New York Giants are 13-12 ATS on the road.
  • The Giants have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 13 games.
  • The Giants have lost 15 of their last 19 road games.
  • The Giants are 8-17 ATS as road underdogs (5-11 since 2023).
  • Opponents have scored first in eight of the Giants’ last nine road games.
  • New York is 6-7 ATS in their last 13 divisional matchups.
  • The Giants have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 13 games.
  • The Giants are 11-15 ATS over their last 26 games.
  • In 12 of the Giants’ last 13 games, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
  • In 8 of the Giants’ last 10 games, the first score has been an opponent touchdown.

Totals:

  • Each of the Cowboys’ last six home games against the Giants has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Cowboys’ last 20 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Giants' last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Giants are 12-15 toward the over in their last 27 games.

Overall

The Giants' tough schedule continues. After a big divisional loss in Week 1, they are back on the road again at Jerry World. Dallas has traditionally been a good team to bet ATS at home (7-4 ATS as home favorite since 2023). The Giants as road underdogs in the same time frame? 5-11 ATS.

Dallas fell just short of the Week 1 upset in Philly, but Dak Prescott's performance was beyond encouraging. He looked fantastic. No Jalen Carter made life easier, but CeeDee Lamb's drops didn't help his box score.

I don't think New York will have success offensively here to keep pace with Dallas' offense.

New York's only hope might be to turn to Jaxson Dart...but I think Brian Daboll is firm in his stance to wait as long as possible to turn to the rookie (to save his job).

Prop Angles

  • Go heavy on the Dallas First TD scores.
  • No team allowed more receptions to TEs than the Cowboys did in 2024…(3.8 per game). Dallas Goedert feasted in this spot in Week 1 with seven receptions.
  • Theo Johnson has gone over 2.5 receptions in seven of his last 10 games. In his last game versus the Cowboys in Week 13, Johnson caught five balls for 54 yards. He saw four targets last week and had two receptions for 25 yards (an offensive penalty removed one). The second-year TE played 78% of the snaps.
  • The Cowboys’ defense held Saquon Barkley to 60 rushing yards in Week 1, nearly 35 yards below his closing line rushing prop. This line for Tracy is a joke at 53.5 yards. He has gone over this number twice in his last eight games played. On the road in a potential negative game script, this is an easy under. It just takes one fumble for Tracy to find his way to the bench. Last time he faced Dallas? 9 for 32 on the ground.
  • The Giants’ defense allowed 59.1% of their deep passes faced to be completed last season, the highest rate by a defense in a season since 2016.
  • They especially struggled on first downs, allowing 14 of 20 deep passes to be completed for 407 yards and three touchdowns, translating to a 70.0% completion percentage. The Giants’ defense did not face a deep pass in 3 of 17 games last season, including Week 4 against the Cowboys. Expect that to change in Week 2 with George Pickens looking to rebound after a quiet Week 1.

      Erickson’s Props:

      Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday, 1:00 PM ET - CBS

      BettingPros Consensus Odds: 

      Erickson’s Pick: Over 49

      Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

      Why:

      • Hard to evaluate Jacksonville's Week 1 due to weather delays and the Carolina Panthers' terrible run defense; limited takeaways.
      • The Bengals beat the Browns, but underperformed expectations offensively.

      Trends

      Sides:

      • The Jaguars have lost the first half in each of their last seven games as road underdogs.
      • The Jaguars have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
      • The Jaguars have covered the spread in 15 of their last 22 road games (not in Jacksonville).
      • The Jags are just 3-16 as an underdog since the start of last season.
      • The Jaguars have lost 14 of their last 15 games as underdogs.
      • The Bengals have won each of their last six games.
      • The Bengals have covered the spread in their last four of their last six games to end 2024.

      Totals:

      • Seven of the Bengals' last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
      • Nine of the Bengals' last 11 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
      • Cincy went 7-2 toward the over at home, with games averaging north of 58 points per game.
      • Each of the Jaguars’ last six games following a win has gone OVER the total points line.
      • Nine of the Jaguars' last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.

      Overall

      You have to take AFC North games with a grain of salt. Because of how intense this division is, the matchups are so much closer.

      For the Bengals, this was the recipe for success last season: 8-3 toward the over in non-division contests. And following the Browns’ games over the past two seasons?

      The Bengals went 3-0 over the following week.

      Erase what you saw from the Bengals in Week 1 versus the Browns. I think it's completely irrelevant, as they play the Jaguars at home in Week 2. Jacksonville's defense is not in the same stratosphere as a healthy Browns unit.

      We know the unders dominated in Week 1. But this week, with games at Ford Field and the Bengals not playing the Browns, expect the overs to fire back. Expect points.

      Joe Go Brr...

      Prop Angles

      • The Bengals might be one of the worst defenses in the NFL versus tight ends. They allowed 10 catches to Browns TEs in Week 1. They allowed the most catches to TEs last season. Brenton Strange caught three passes on the Jaguars’ opening drive in Week 1, finishing with four grabs on the day.
      • Tee Higgins’ total stat lines in games AFTER facing the Browns: 8-89-2 and 11-131-3.

      Erickson’s Props:

      Los Angeles Rams @ Tennessee Titans – Sunday, 1:00 PM ET - CBS

      BettingPros Consensus Odds: 

      Erickson’s Pick: Under 41.5 (lean Rams -5.5)

      Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)

      Why:

      • Cam Ward looked solid but was hamstrung by poor play-calling from Titans HC Brian Callahan.
      • Titans failed to feature Calvin Ridley effectively; schematic issues remain.
      • Sean McVay vs Callahan coaching mismatch favors LA.
      • LA is great as a road favorite.
      • Lean: Rams - McVay edge + Titans' offensive concerns.
      • The game total is under with both teams battling OL injuries.

      Trends

      Sides:

      • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight home games.
      • The Titans have lost each of their last seven games.
      • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 14 games.
      • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in their last eight home games.
      • They were the only team in 2024 to not cover any home game (0-8 ATS).
      • The Titans are 6-11 at home since the start of 2023.
      • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 16 games at Nissan Stadium.
      • The Rams have won five of their last six road games.
      • The favorites have won 26 of the Rams’ last 30 games.
      • The Rams have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games.
      • The Rams have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as road favorites.
      • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine games against teams with a losing record.

      Totals:

      • Seven of the Rams’ last eight games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
      • Seven of the Rams' last eight games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
      • Ten of the Rams' last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line (65%).

      Overall:

      It took a Box Nix/Sean Payton Week 1 disaster for the Titans to cover the 8.5 spread in Week 1. Tennessee HC Brian Callahan did no favors by helping his rookie QB with poor play-calling and in-game management. There's a reason why he owns the worst ATS record since becoming HC last season. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford showed that he is healthy in Week 1. And this Rams team (despite traveling West to East) is battle-tested. Road warriors. The Rams have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as road favorites. Fade the home team, the Titans, who are probably getting too much credit after being gifted a cover from Denver in Week 1.

      The Rams’ defensive line was all over C.J. Stroud in Week 1. With starting tackle JC Latham on the injury report for Tennessee, Ward is going to have to be Superman to help the Titans win.

      I also lean heavily toward the under in this contest. The Titans’ defense is underrated as a whole, and both teams are dealing with OL injuries.

      However, I am very confident that Sean McVay will know how to scheme around OL problems.

      Prop Angles:

      • Kyren Williams could eat with Titans nose tackle T’Vondre Sweat out.
      • Davante Adams went 4-51 on eight targets in his debut. He played 90% of snaps but faced heavy coverage from Derek Stingley Jr. However, he hardly looked overmatched.  With strong underlying usage, he’s a buy-low candidate.

      Erickson’s Props:

      New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins- Sunday, 1:00 PM ET - CBS

      BettingPros Consensus Odds: 

      Erickson’s Pick: Patriots ML (+2.5)

      Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

      Why:

      • Patriots historically struggle in Miami, but matchup dynamics favor New England as road underdogs.
      • The Dolphins looked disorganized in Week 1, as the offense lacked rhythm and the run game was ineffective. Matt Judon running on special teams? LOL wut. Vibes? Real bad...
      • Patriots' defense played well early vs Seattle before collapsing in the second half without Christian Gonzalez.
      • Dolphins are dealing with more OL injuries (Austin Jackson, James Daniels).
      • Lean: Patriots ML - Vrabel bounce-back spot vs Mike McDaniel.
      • The Pats didn't look great in Week 1. But Miami looked worse.

      Trends

      Sides:

      • As road underdogs, the Patriots are 47% ATS (9-11) and sub-50% ATS on the road in their last 24 road contests.
      • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 17 games.
      • The Patriots have lost 16 of their last 20 games.
      • The Patriots have lost 15 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
      • The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last nine games against the Patriots.
      • The home team has won eight of the Dolphins’ last nine games.
      • The Dolphins have covered the spread in 16 of their last 19 games against teams with a losing record.
      • The Dolphins have lost 13 of their last 21 games.
      • Miami has failed to cover the spread in 12 of its last 22 games.
      • The Dolphins have won 24 of their last 31 home games.
      • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine home games (3-5 ATS at home last season, 2-5 ATS as home favorite)

      Totals:

      • Each of the Dolphins’ last six home games has gone OVER the total points line.
      • The Dolphins finished 2024 6-3 toward the OVER with Tua Tagovailoa for the last nine weeks.
      • Without their starting QB, the Dolphins went 2-6 O/U.
      • Fourteen of the Dolphins' last 22 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
      • Each of the Dolphins' last six home games has gone OVER the total points line.
      • Fifteen of the last 23 Patriots games have gone OVER the projected game total.
      • Ten of the Patriots’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.

      Overall

      My Patriots let me down last week, but they sure looked much better than the Dolphins.

      I felt like things could go south for the Dolphins in Week 1 versus the Colts, given how they tend to underperform as underdogs on the road. But back at home, I understand why the Dolphins are favorites in Week 2. The recent track record versus NE bodes in favor of Miami.

      However, the Patriots at least showed some signs of competence versus the Raiders before things unraveled in the second half. They didn't get blown out, and they looked in control at halftime (70%-win probability).

      Also, the Patriots played under wet conditions, which can add additional variance to an NFL game's outcome. Mike Vrabel's teams perform better as ATS underdogs, so that's the angle I am going to lean into. Miami's season is beginning to unravel, and a Week 2 home loss to New England will add fuel to the fire that is McDaniels’ coaching chair. Hotter than that Miami beach sand.

      The Dolphins' patchwork OL and Tua's lack of mobility could be the deciding factor in this AFC East showdown. Give me the Pats to come away with the road upset.

      The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine home games (3-5 ATS at home last season, 2-5 ATS as home favorite in 2024).

      Drake Maye finished 3-3 ATS on the road last season.

      Prop Angles

      • Tailing my boy Welsh on this one. Buy Kayshon Boutte. In Week 1: 8 targets: 6-103; operated as the de facto WR1. Routes leader, 138 air yards (≈38% share), three deep targets, one end-zone target. The chemistry with Drake Maye is real. Potential 3rd-year breakout candidate. Don’t be late. He started to flash at the end of the 2024 season. He has 95-plus receiving yards in three of his last four games played.
      • Henderson is going to be used as a staple in this passing attack. 6 catches last week on six targets. Pats coaching staff has already talked about needing to bet the ball to the RBs more. Specifically, all 3 RBs. TBH, it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if we saw more of Antonio Gibson at the expense of Rhamondre Stevenson. Long shot TD bet? Antonio Gibson anytime TD at +1500.
      • Austin Hooper saw a red-zone target last week and scored against the Dolphins last season. He is part of their red-zone package…

      Erickson’s Props:

      San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints- Sunday, 1:00 PM ET - FOX

      BettingPros Consensus Odds:

      Erickson’s Pick: Under 40.5 (official)

      Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

      Why:

      • The 49ers offense is banged up, and their defense looks primed to put Spencer Rattler through the blender.
      • Saints have some OL injuries.
      • Trends strongly bet toward the under.

      Trends

      Sides:

      • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 10 games following a win.
      • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games.
      • The 49ers are 10-10 ATS as road favorites in their last 19 games.
      • The road team has covered the spread in 19 of the 49ers' last 30 games.
      • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with winning records.
      • San Francisco is 15-9 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
      • The Saints have lost each of their last five games.
      • The home team has covered the spread in seven of the Saints' last 11 games.
      • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 14 games.
      • The Saints have lost 13 of their last 16 games.
      • The Saints are 5-9 ATS as home underdogs (9-18 on the money line as underdogs)
      • As home underdogs, the Saints are 3-11 straight up. Woof.

      Totals:

      • Each of the 49ers’ last six games following a win has gone UNDER the total points line.
      • Ten of the 49ers’ last 11 games following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.
      • Thirteen of the 49ers' last 20 games have gone OVER the total points line.
      • Six of the Saints’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
      • The 2024 Saints finished 5-5 toward the over at home (under 46 points per game).

      Overall

      A lot to unpack here for the SF 49ers, who initially opened up as touchdown road favorites against the Saints. But since these lines dropped, it's just been bad news for Niner Nation. Injuries are piling up. George Kittle is out. Brock Purdy is out 2-5 weeks. Jauan Jennings is also battling a shoulder injury. Needless to say, Kyle Shanahan clearly made a deal with the football gods to sacrifice all his offensive personnel to keep Christian McCaffery upright. Mac Jones is slated to start. And as much as I'd truly like to believe that the offense won't miss a beat without QB1, the compounding effect of all the missing pieces could result in something very subpar offensively.

      If the 49ers are going to win this game, I think it will be behind a strong rushing attack and defensive performance (similar to last week). This unit looks revitalized under DC Robert Saleh.

      And it's not just the on-paper matchup that has me on the under for this contest. The trends are strong toward backing the under.

      Each of the 49ers’ last six games following a win has gone UNDER the total points line.

      Six of the Saints’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.

      And don't overlook the coaching matchup here. Who is the Saints’ defensive coordinator? Brandon Staley.

      He spent all last season with the 49ers as the assistant HC. He has also faced the 49ers thrice since 2020 (two as Rams DC and one as Chargers HC). Totals: 38, 40, 43 (each game continued to decrease with each subsequent matchup): three straight unders and three straight covers by the underdog.

      Staley and Saints HC Kellen Moore also faced off versus the Saleh-led Jets in 2023. They won outright 27-6 on the road. The game also went under.

      Also, if we are big-braining here...how good do the 49ers really want Mac Jones to look? Good enough to win...but not so great that it makes the Brock Purdy contract look bad.

      I also think the 49ers’ offensive line is a bit overrated. Trent Williams might be starting to show some signs of age decline. Last week versus the Seahawks, Brock Purdy was pressured on 60.5% of his dropbacks, the highest pressure rate he's faced in a single game in his career.

      The left side of the offensive line accumulated 17 of the 23 total pressures allowed, with left tackle Trent Williams allowing 10 pressures on 38 pass blocks (26.3%) and left guard Ben Bartch giving up seven pressures on 38 pass blocks (18.4%) - Via Next Gen Stats.

      Prop Angles

      • I think this game is closer to a defensive slog than a fun contest. That being said, don’t overlook the Kendrick Bourne-Mac Jones connection. Bourne signed with the 49ers because of all their injuries. During his first stint with San Fran, he was heavily used in the red zone. Bourne was with Jones for all three years in New England-10 TDs over that span. Take the TD long shot and jump on any receiving yards props that get listed. +700 anytime TD. 1st TD? +2800.

      Erickson’s Props:

      Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday, 1:00 PM ET - FOX

      BettingPros Consensus Odds: 


      Erickson’s Pick: Steelers -3*

      *not sure I can handle getting destroyed by Aaron Rodgers two weeks in a row

      Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)

      Why:

      • The Steelers exploded offensively with Aaron Rodgers, but may regress in Week 2 against a stronger Seahawks defense.
      • The Seahawks' offense with Sam Darnold still hasn't shown a high ceiling.
      • In 2024, the Steelers went 3-1 ATS at home (as a favorite) - 6-2 ATS at home ATS
      • Lean: Steelers -3, home-field + potential defensive regression game.

      Trends

      Sides:

      • The Seahawks have won each of their last six road games.
      • The Seahawks have covered the spread in five of their last nine games.
      • The favorites have won 27 of the Seahawks’ last 33 games.
      • The road team has covered the spread in 13 of the Seahawks’ last 14 games.
      • The road team has won 12 of the Seahawks’ last 14 games.
      • Seattle is 10-19-1 ATS in their last 30 games played (9-16-1 over the last 26 games).
      • In 2024, the Steelers went 3-1 ATS at home (as a favorite) and 6-2 ATS at home.
      • The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games.
      • The Steelers have won 14 of their last 23 games.
      • The Steelers have covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 games.

      Totals:

      • Each of the Steelers’ last four home games has gone UNDER the total points line.
      • The Steelers finished 2-6 O/U at home in 2024 (39.6 points per game).
      • Four of the Steelers' last six games went UNDER the total points line.
      • Eight of the Seahawks' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
      • Thirteen of the Seahawks’ last 23 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

      Overall:

      Welp, there was no worse take last week than backing the Steelers-Jets under. Aaron Rodgers absolutely cooked his former team in Week 1 to the tune of 4 passing TDs. Now, I don't necessarily expect another 4-passing TD effort, but I think the Pittsburgh offense can be productive again. I overlooked how Rodgers' intel of the Jets’ defensive personnel could help their offense in Week 1.

      I won't overlook that in Week 2, with former Seahawks WR, DK Metcalf, entrenched as the WR1 for the Steel Curtain.

      And as I wrote last week, I'm not betting on Sam Darnold in any capacity. One of the few things I was correct about was betting against the new Seahawks QB, and the results were very positive. Game on the line? Darnold fumbles. Game over.

      Rinse and repeat.

      As for the total, I'm giving myself a break. The Steelers have some injuries in the secondary (CB Joey Porter Jr., S DeShon Elliott), while first-rounder DT Derrick Harmon will miss another game. The Steelers’ defense still remains a liability with the injuries they are dealing with. Their run defense should play better against a non-mobile QB, but I can’t completely remove Week 1’s performance from my analysis.

      Prop Angles

      • Cooper Kupp has exceeded 31.5 yards twice in his last eight games played. In a run-heavy Seahawks offense built around fullbacks and the ground game, I'm not convinced the older WR will be a focal point.
      • That was apparent in his debut with the Seahawks, where Kupp was a non-factor.
      • This one is a gimme. Ken Walker over 1.5 catches. He’s hit this in 12 straight games. Even last week, in a committee with Zach Charbonnet, Walker dominated the targets out of the backfield in Week 1. Targeted at a 33% clip. Coming off an offseason injury, usage could ramp up in Week 2.

      Erickson’s Props:

      Buffalo Bills  @ New York Jets- Sunday, 1:00 PM ET - CBS

      BettingPros Consensus Odds: 

      Erickson’s Pick: Over 47.5 (lean Jets +6.5)

      Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

      Why:

      • The Jets' offense looks sharp with Justin Fields; they were fun to watch in Week 1.
      • Buffalo's secondary is banged up, and they struggled to stop the run.
      • Lean: Jets +6.5 at home in a divisional matchup - strong matchup edge against an injury-depleted Bills defense.
      • I also like the over. The Bills’ offense needs to score to pick up the slack on defense.

      Trends

      Sides:

      • The Jets finished 0-7 as underdogs in their last seven appearances as such
      • The Jets have lost 12 of their 15 games.
      • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven home games.
      • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games against teams with winning records.
      • The underdogs have covered the spread in nine of the last 11 games between the Bills and Jets at MetLife Stadium.
      • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record (56%).
      • The home team has won each of the Bills’ last seven games.
      • The Bills have covered the spread in 11 of their last 12 games.
      • The Bills have covered the spread in 12 of their last 19 games against AFC opponents.
      • The Bills have won 22 of their last 28 games.
      • The Buffalo Bills are 23-8 as a favorite since the start of last season but just 16-15 ATS.

      Totals:

      • Each of the Jets’ last six games against AFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
      • At home, the Jets finished 5-4 O/U in 2024.
      • Seven of the Jets’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line
      • Seventeen of the Bills’ last 23 games have gone OVER the total points line
      • Bills have scored 30+ points in 11 of their last 14 games with starters (78%).
      • Twelve of the Bills' last 15 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
      • Each of the Bills' last five road games has gone OVER the total points line.
      • Sixteen of the Bills' last 22 games have gone OVER the total points line - 22 of their last 28 road games.

      Overall

      As I mentioned in the Steelers matchup, I had no bigger miss than undervaluing what the Jets offense was capable of doing in Week 1. I feared the Steelers’ defense and got cooked. Sometimes we can get carried away overreacting to Week 1, but I was so impressed by what the Jets did in Aaron Glenn's debut.

      And even though they came up short of winning...they still covered. Good teams win. Great teams cover. Dan Campbell taught Glenn well.

      When Glenn's defense in Detroit played the Bills in 2024, they allowed 48 points.

      I like the Jets with the points, but I think I like the game total over more. Buffalo is good for 30 points almost every week, and their defense is vulnerable with so many injuries/missing pieces.

      Trends are strong for overs, considering both BUF/NYJ games also went over last season.

      Prop Angles

      • Sauce Gardner lined up against DK Metcalf on 30 of Metcalf's 33 routes (90.9%) in Week 1, the first time Gardner has stayed with a receiver on over 70% of pass snaps in any game in his career. Metcalf caught 1 of 3 targets for 11 yards with Gardner as the nearest defender, with Gardner forcing tight windows (<1 yard of separation) on 2 of 3 targets according to Next Gen Stats.
      • I think Keon Coleman gets the sauce treatment this week. As a non-separator and contested-catch savant, I could see Coleman struggling to haul in more than 3.5 catches in tight coverage. He was held to just three catches in both games last year versus New York.

      Erickson’s Props:

       

      Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals- Sunday, 4:05 PM ET - FOX

      BettingPros Consensus Odds: 

      Erickson’s Pick: Over 44.5 (Tentatively lean Panthers +7)

      Confidence:  ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

      Why:

      • Panthers were a Week 1 letdown, but catching +7 offers value.
      • Cardinals are likely winners, but covering a full TD is a stretch
      • Lean: Panthers +7 - better value dog on the slate. But likely more of a shy away.
      • Better bet on the total.

      Trends

      Sides:

      • The Panthers have lost 16 of their last 18 road games.
      • The Panthers have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games as underdogs.
      • The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the Panthers’ last nine games.
      • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with winning records.
      • The Panthers have not covered the spread in 13 of their last 20 games.
      • The Panthers have lost 21 of their last 28 games.
      • The Panthers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against the Cardinals.
      • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 9 of their last 12 games.

      Totals:

      • Eight of the Cardinals’ last nine games as home favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
      • Six of the Cardinals’ last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
      • Twelve of the Cardinals’ last 15 Sunday home games have gone OVER the total points line.
      • The Cardinals have been an UNDER machine on the road since the start of 2023 (5-11-1).
      • Four of the Cardinals' last five games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
      • Eleven of the Cardinals' last 16 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
      • Twelve of the Panthers' last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.

      Overall:

      This game is probably off my Week 2 NFL betting card. For those who are in the BettingPros Discord, you know my love for both of these teams during the offseason NFL futures market. So, whatever the outcome, it's going to feel neutral for me.

      Also, I'm still licking my wounds from the Panthers letting me down last week. Their run defense is still terrible (DT Tershawn Wharton is out with an injury), and the offense was dysfunctional in Week 1.

      However, I think I'll give the offense a pass due to the unusual weather delay. Also, Bryce Young's WRs were leaving his QB out to dry by incompletions on sideline throws. Xavier Legette. Bruh.

      But this Panthers defense can't stop the run. And Arizona knows that.

      That being said, the Red Birds didn't completely dominate the Saints in Week 1. They still covered, but it went down to the wire. So, they feel overrated by their 6.5-point home favorites.

      I think this is a classic “Panthers cover and Cardinals win type game.”

      That's probably an ideal outcome for me personally, given that I am holding an Arizona +1100 ticket to start the season 5-0.

      But if I am going to back the Panthers at all, they need to get back OT Ikem Ekwonu.

      Otherwise, this game is made for player props. And maybe a lean toward the over. Kyler Murray was sick last week (boy got the runs), so I'd expect them to improve offensively at home.

      Considering my love for both these teams, give me the over as the official play. Last time these teams faced off? 36-30. The Panthers won as 5-point home underdogs.

      Once Arizona gets the ball, watch the first rushing attempt, and if we see a chunk gain, fire on the over.

      Prop Angles

      • Murray has also scored at least one touchdown in three of the Cardinals' last six home games against teams with a losing record.
      • The Panthers QB has rushed for over 15.5 yards in seven of his final nine games. Expect that to continue in Week 2 on a fast indoor track. Young rushed for a career-high 68 yards when he faced the Cardinals in 2024. 

      Erickson’s Props:

      Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts- Sunday, 4:05 PM ET - CBS

      BettingPros Consensus Odds: 

      Erickson’s Pick: Broncos -2.5

      Confidence:  ★★★★★ (5 out of 5)

      Why:

      • The Broncos looked sloppy but still escaped Week 1 with a win despite five turnovers.
      • The Colts have historically dominated as small favorites under Shane Steichen, but face a different test here as home underdogs.
      • Denver is in a bounce-back spot after uncharacteristic mistakes; the market expects them to win outright.
      • Lean: Broncos - buy the dip. Opened up as 3.5-point road favorites.
      • Shane Steichen owns the second-best record ATS as a favorite (64.3%, 9-5). But since 2023...the Colts are 6-15 SU as underdogs.

      Trends

      Sides:

      • Bo Nix is 8-1 ATS as a favorite.
      • The favorites have won each of the Broncos’ last 15 games.
      • Each of the Broncos’ last six games as favorites following a win has gone OVER the total points line.
      • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last seven games as favorites against AFC opponents.
      • The favorites have covered the spread in 13 of the Broncos’ last 15 games.
      • The favorites have won each of the Broncos’ last 15 games.
      • The Broncos have scored first in eight of their last 10 games.
      • The Broncos have covered the spread in 11 of their last 17 games.
      • The Broncos have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games.
      • The Broncos have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games as favorites.
      • The Broncos have won each of their last 10 games as favorites.
      • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last seven games following a loss.
      • The favorites have won 25 of the Colts’ last 30 games.
      • Since 2023, the Colts are 6-15 SU as underdogs.
      • The Colts are 6-4 ATS as an underdog (3-7 overall).
      • The Colts are 5-3 ATS as favorites since the start of 2024.
      • The Colts are 12-2 as favorites straight up since the start of 2023.
      • The Colts have covered the spread in 11 of their last 18 games.
      • The Colts have covered the spread in 10 of their last 16 games.
      • The Colts have covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 games against AFC opponents.

      Totals:

      • Five of the Colts’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
      • Ten of the last 14 Colts’ games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
      • With Joe Flacco in 2024: 5-2 O/U (last five games 4-1).
      • Twelve of the Colts’ last 19 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
      • Six of the Colts' last seven games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
      • Each of the Broncos’ last six games as favorites following a win have gone OVER the total points line.
      • Five of the Broncos’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
      • Nine of the Broncos’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.

      Overall

      Denver laid a massive egg in Week 1. Sloppy on offense. Had they played a legitimate opponent, we could have seen them lose outright. But I'm confident that Sean Payton will right the ship in Week 2 and deliver on some of the high preseason expectations.

      Bo Nix is still 8-1 ATS as a favorite, and the market still believes Denver should be favored - even on the road.

      The Colts don't win/cover as underdogs, so expect Daniel Jones' production to come back down to Earth against one of the NFL's top defensive units.

      There is a night-and-day difference between the Broncos’ defense and the Dolphins’ defense.

      Prop Angles

      • Michael Pittman Jr. had a great debut with Daniel Jones. But I don’t imagine that will continue with him, likely drawing coverage from Patrick Surtain II this week. Until proven otherwise, bet the under on receptions to opposing No. 1 WRs against the Broncos. However, I do think that we might actually see Surtain guard Tyler Warren a decent chunk (Broncos did something similar last year against Brock Bowers).
      • Essentially, we want to find the receiver who will see the fewest of Surtain on Sunday. And it’s probably Josh Downs. He went 3-38 on eight targets when Indy faced Denver last season. He was quiet last week – 2-12 on three targets; sub-50% snaps as primary slot – but I think he will be more involved this week. Keep in mind that last week was a blowout, and Downs had two catches in the first half.

      Erickson’s Props:

      Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs- Sunday, 4:25 PM ET - FOX

      BettingPros Consensus Odds: 

      Erickson’s Pick: Pass (Live Bet Chiefs ML)

      Confidence:  ★ (1 out of 5)

      Why:

      • The Chiefs open as home underdogs in a rare spot vs the reigning champs.
      • The Eagles crushed KC in their last matchup
      • Potential Super Bowl hangover angle for Kansas City early in the year.
      • Lean: Eagles ML - matchup advantage + better overall roster.

      Trends

      Sides:

      • The Chiefs have won eight of their last 10 games as underdogs.
      • KC is 7-1 after a loss since 2023 (4-3-1 ATS). Since 2024? 0-2 ATS but 2-0 straight up.
      • The Chiefs have scored last in seven of their last nine home games.
      • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams that held a winning record.
      • Kansas City has played five games with a +/- two-point spread since the 2023 Super Bowl. They won three times but lost against the Bills in the regular season and the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
      • The Chiefs have won each of their last 12 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
      • The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 15 games.
      • Chiefs starters have won 23 of their last 26 games.
      • The Chiefs have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 road games.
      • The Chiefs have covered the spread in four of their last five games against reigning Super Bowl champions.
      • The Eagles have won 17 of their last 18 games.
      • In seven of the Eagles' last eight games, the first score has been an Eagles touchdown.
      • The Eagles have won 16 of their last 22 games as favorites.
      • The Eagles have scored first in eight of their last nine games.
      • The Eagles are 7-15-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season (30%).
      • They covered just seven spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
      • The Eagles are 16-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (69%).
      • The underdogs have covered the spread in 16 of the Eagles' last 27 games.
      • The Eagles covered four of their last six games when favored by 4.5 points or more at home since the start of 2024.
      • The average margin of victory in those contests was greater than nine points. The Eagles are 18-13 ATS as home favorites in their last 31 games (58%).
      • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
      • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games against teams that held a losing record.

      Totals:

      • Four of the last five games between the Eagles and Chiefs have gone OVER the total points line.
      • The Eagles are 4-8 O/U at home since the start of 2024 (44.5 PPG).
      • Nine of the Eagles’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
      • Seven of the Eagles' last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
      • The Eagles are 16-22 O/U since the start of 2023. They are 7-12 toward the over on the road.
      • The Eagles have hit the first quarter OVER in eight straight (10 or more points) - excluding Week 18 (rested starters in 2024).
      • Sixteen of the Chiefs’ last 28 games have gone UNDER the total points line (19 of the last 30).
      • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have allowed just five teams (Bills twice) to score 27 points (Bills in Week 11, Bills in the AFC Championship Game, Panthers in Week 12, Broncos in Week 18, Eagles in the Super Bowl, Chargers in Week 1 of 2025).
      • KC went 5-5 O/U at home in 2024, averaging OVER 42 points per game.
      • Twenty of the Chiefs’ last 27 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line (74%).

      Overall

      The NFL wasted no time getting fans a Super Bowl rematch. We've got Chiefs-Eagles set for Week 2 in the late afternoon window, and it's under unique circumstances. The Chiefs are getting 1.5 points as home underdogs. Just the second time in the Patrick Mahomes era that he has been a home underdog. The other time came back in 2022, when the Chiefs lost 24-20 to the Bills.

      I'm not sure that I want to have a pre-game bet in this matchup. We know the Eagles have the superior roster, and we saw them destroy the Chiefs not so long ago. Jalen Carter will also be back for the Eagles’ defense.

      Meanwhile, KC is reeling after a loss in Brazil to the Chargers. Xavier Worthy is hurt, and Travis Kelce looks like he is on his final run. They look like a team that is dealing with a Super Bowl hangover.

      But nobody ever can confidently bet against Mahomes as an underdog. Typically, this is where he always thrives. But he fell short as a home underdog before...and it's very possible that it could happen again. KC ran so close to the sun last season, winning so many close games. Regression monster is coming…

      I really just want to bet props for this game (cc DeVonta Smith overs) than have a play on the side or total.

      I think for an additional sweat, I'd look for a live bet on the Chiefs with more points and/or ML. If you are simply betting on the Mahomes underdog magic, you may as well get the most bang for your buck.

      KC was a slow starter at home last year, so you might be able to jump on the Chiefs at a solid number if the Eagles open up 7-0.

      Prop Angles

      • Nobody can run on the Chiefs. So much so, the Chargers didn't even really try to throw, ranking first in Week 1 in pass rate over expectation (+15.25%). Attacking the right side of the field on 50% of their attempts.
      • Expect the Eagles’ passing game to get more opportunities than we saw in Week 1. Anticipate the ground game to be less stellar.
      • First quarter overs. The Chiefs' game plan last week was hindered because of Xavier Worthy’s injury. I would expect a better plan for the offense to start fast in Week 2.
      • DeVonta Smith COOKS when either Dallas Goedert or A.J. Brown misses games. He also owns the Chiefs. In 4 career matchups, Smith has totaled no less than 69 yards versus KC, including three games with 99-plus yards.
      • Jalen Hurts has recorded 29+ rushing yards in each of his last 10 regular-season appearances.

      Erickson’s Props:

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