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NFL Betting Primer, Picks & Predictions: Week 5 (2026)

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Welcome back to yet another edition of the NFL Betting Primer.

My Week 4 betting card was solid, and for the first time, we were positive in the sides/totals market. Naturally, the player props regressed a bit (sports betting, amirite), but it’s been four straight weeks of positivity.

Over four weeks, the official plays have gone 7-4, 6-5, 6-4, and 6-5.

25-18 overall for a strong 58%. So let’s stay on the winning side of NFL action ahead of Week 5. As you can see from the league-wide trends, the dominating teams versus the spread are the home underdogs. Go figure.

Home underdogs are 14-8-1 ATS through Week 4, which is nearly 64% of decided bets. That covers 23 games and leaves out the three neutral-site games (Melbourne, Brazil and London).

Home underdogs have also won 11 of those 23 games outright (48%), and the Over went 12-11.

Six Week 5 games have a home underdog: Packers (vs. Bears) in-division, Chargers (vs. Broncos) in-division, Cardinals (vs. Lions), Saints (vs. Vikings), Dolphins (vs. Bengals) and Titans (vs. Texans) in-division.

This week, I am condensing the betting primer into an all-inclusive document. So every game from Sunday to Monday is fair game.

I’ve got back-to-back weddings Friday and Saturday for two very important people in my life, so I’ve got less time to dedicate to stand-alone pieces on the “island games.”

Nevertheless, the best bets and props prophet will still persevere for the NFL Week 5 slate. And who knows…perhaps a condensed version of the primer will bring back an even stronger betting week as I widen my scope on the entire 14-game slate (with two teams on bye).

Either way, the next few days will be jam-packed with family, friends, maybe a few adult beverages, and football.

Congrats to my sister Rachael and her future husband Matt. And a big shout-out to my guy Mike and his beloved wife-to-be, Mollie. Love you all.

Now let’s get into business.

    League-Wide Trends

    Week 4 Recap

    • Favorites went 4-10-2 ATS; underdogs went 10-4-2 ATS (16 games).
    • Home teams went 6-7-2 ATS; road teams went 7-6-2 ATS (1 neutral-site game excluded).
    • Overall O/U: 9-7.

    Full Season 2026 (through Week 4)

    • Favorites went 27-33-4 ATS; underdogs went 33-27-4 ATS (64 games).
    • Home teams went 32-26-3 ATS; road teams went 26-32-3 ATS (3 neutral-site games excluded).
    • Overall O/U: 31-33.

    Prime-Time Highlight (Wed Opener/TNF/SNF/MNF, through Week 4)

    • Favorites went 3-9-1 ATS; underdogs went 9-3-1 ATS (13 games).
    • Home teams went 8-3-1 ATS; road teams went 3-8-1 ATS (1 neutral-site game excluded)
    • Overall O/U: 7-6.

    For my thoughts on all the games on the Week 5 slate, be sure to check out the weekly lookahead lines show I do every week with Ryan Wormley (Monday release following every Sunday slate) on the BettingPros YouTube Channel.

    Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

    Week 5 NFL Betting Primer

    Official Plays

    • Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
    • Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers (+2.5)
    • Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
    • Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers under first half 21.5 
    • Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals under 54.5
    • Buffalo Bills (ML) vs. Los Angeles Rams
    • Jalen Hurts UNDER 199.5 passing yards
    • Emanuel Wilson UNDER 79.5 rushing and receiving yards
    • Christian McCaffrey OVER 4.5 receptions
    • Najee Harris UNDER 32.5 rushing+receiving yards
    • Najee Harris UNDER 7.5 carries 

    Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Jaguars -7

    Trends

    • PHI has not yet played as a road underdog in 2026 (through Week 4). Overall: across all road games, 0-2 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all underdog games, 0-1 ATS and 1-0 O/U; across all 2026 games, 0-4 ATS and 3-1 O/U.
    • As a home favorite, JAX is 2-0 ATS (100%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-1 ATS and 1-3 O/U.
    • PHI streaks through Week 4: 2-2 straight up (2-game losing streak), 0-4 against the spread (4-game non-cover streak), 3-1 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
    • JAX streaks through Week 4: 3-1 straight up (2-game win streak), 3-1 against the spread (2-game cover streak), 1-3 toward the total (3-game Under streak).
    • Philadelphia is 12-8 ATS on the road from 2024 through 2026.
    • Philadelphia has gone Under in 7 or 8 of its last 12 games (7-5 or 8-4), dating back to the 2025 season, but 3 of its 4 games in 2026 have gone Over.
    • Jacksonville is 11-2 in its last 13 games, dating back to the 2025 season.
    • Jacksonville is 9-3 ATS and straight up at home under Liam Coen across the 2025 regular season, 2025 playoffs, and 2026 to date, including 2-0 at home in 2026 (both ATS and SU).
    • Best home record ATS since Coen became the HC. Also the best ATS record as a favorite (9-2). 6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
    • The Eagles have won 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog, dating back to the 2025 season.
    • The Eagles are 7-point underdogs for the first time since 2021 (Sheil Kapadia) – also the last time Philly had a losing record.
    • Jacksonville is 3-2 straight up and ATS in London in the last three seasons.
    • So far in 2026, the international games are 1-2 toward the O/U.
    • Seven of the last 13 international games have gone OVER the total.
    • Eleven of the last 18 international games have gone UNDER the total.
    • Per Covers.com: Favorites are 49-17 straight up (SU) and 41-24-1 against the spread (ATS) for a 63% hit rate. The O/U is 30-36 (45%).

    Injuries

    Overall

    So far, I am 2-1 betting on my Jags ATS this season. And when they have delivered as favorites at home, laying points…I’m 2-0. Trust the process. The betting trends strongly support backing DUVAL county as they host a REELING Philly team in London. The Jags are heavy home favorites. Most international games, it doesn’t matter who the actual home team is, but London is the home away from home for Jacksonville, as we all know. So I do think the home trends still hold some weight here.

    This spread has moved a lot since last Sunday, as the Week 5 early lookahead lines show. Hopefully you got in on some Jaguars -4.5.

    Before Week 4, it was Jags -2.5, then -4.5, and now hovering at that 7-point mark as the best line on some sportsbooks.

    As I talked about last week, favorites tend to dominate the international matchups (the Colts won and covered versus the Washington Commanders in Week 4).

    So back to favorites as the play. Especially when it’s a Jaguars team that has performed so well in this role since last season.

    Per Next Gen Stats: The Jaguars have won 11 of their last 12 regular-season games since Week 11 of the 2025 season. In that span, their 31.1 points per game, 14.1 points per game allowed, and 22 takeaways are all the best in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence has amassed 32 total touchdowns (27 passing, 5 rushing) in that stretch, the most by any player in the NFL.

    Jacksonville is 9-3 ATS and straight up at home under Liam Coen across the 2025 regular season, 2025 playoffs, and 2026 to date, including 2-0 at home in 2026 (both ATS and SU). Best home record ATS since Coen became the HC. Also the best ATS record as a favorite (9-2). 6-1 ATS as a home favorite.

    Meanwhile, the Eagles keep spiraling. 0-4 ATS this season. They are now 5-11 ATS after a loss since 2023. Worst mark in the NFL.

    And I don’t think it’s getting fixed anytime soon.

    The Eagles offense is so broken: per NGS, Philadelphia has a league-leading 15 three-and-out drives this season, with 11 of those coming in the 2nd half. The Eagles have failed to score in the 2nd half over the last two weeks, with their 11 drives resulting in 6 punts, 4 turnovers on downs, and 1 interception. Since the start of the 2025 season, Philadelphia has had a three-and-out on 29.5% of their drives, the highest rate in the NFL.

    Then consider all the lost skill position pieces on the offense: Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert – with the offensive line a whole other issue. This team has been a straight auto-fade without stud RT Lane Johnson, who recently announced his retirement. The team also traded away another starter, Cam Jurgens, to the Ravens for future draft capital.

    It should be noted that Jurgens wasn’t playing particularly well after filling in for Landon Dickerson at guard.

    Per NGS: Jurgens has allowed 18 pressures, tied for the second-most among interior offensive linemen. Jurgens has allowed pressure on 18.5% of his one-on-one pass blocks, the highest rate among interior offensive linemen (min. 50 one-on-one pass blocks). With Johnson out in Week 4 against the Rams, Markel Bell allowed seven pressures and two sacks on 33 pass blocks, the most pressures allowed by an Eagles lineman in a game this season, as Philadelphia allowed pressure on 19 of 33 dropbacks (57.6%), its highest rate in a game since at least 2018.

    In Week 4, Philadelphia’s offense finished with 172 net yards, a 3.0 yards-per-play average, 4 sacks allowed and a 0-for-12 third-down line - with Saquon Barkley out after two carries and DeVonta Smith/Lane Johnson inactive.

    Since 2024, Philadelphia averaged 4.8 yards per carry with Johnson on the field, compared to 4.0 without him. Eagles ball carriers also averaged 2.0 rushing yards before contact per carry with Johnson on the field and 1.3 without him. The Eagles recorded an explosive play on 14.4% of plays with Johnson on the field, a rate that would rank sixth-highest among team seasons since 2024, compared to 11.8% without him, which would rank fifth-lowest.

    According to StatMuse, Hurts also averages UNDER 175 passing yards per game without Johnson in the lineup. He also averages just 120 passing yards per game in his last 5 games without DeVonta Smith, per FantasyPros’ With or Without You Tool. Take the under on the Eagles QB’s passing yards this week.

    The Eagles have allowed pressure on 43.2% of their dropbacks this season, the third-highest rate in the NFL.

    According to Bill Barnwell, since 2013, across all the various Eagles QBs and their Total QBR…

    • With Lane Johnson on the field: 62.5 (3rd-best in the NFL)
    • Without Lane Johnson on the field: 46.8 (29th)

    The Eagles’ defense has also not carried its weight, either ranking as an elite unit:

    • Bottom-10 in EPA/play allowed
    • Bottom-10 in EPA/pass attempt faced
    • 6th-worst in EPA/rush faced

    They have faced the Commanders, Titans, Bears, and Rams this season.

    Fading the Eagles seems obvious, especially when facing a legitimate SB contender in Jacksonville.

    Lawrence has averaged 9.0 yards per attempt when facing four or fewer pass rushers this season (2nd-most in the NFL), a defensive tendency the Eagles do 80.1% of the time (3rd-highest) per NGS.

    Beyond his yards per attempt, Lawrence has also totaled eight touchdowns (1 INT) against non-blitzes, tied for most in the NFL with Kirk Cousins (2 INT). In total, Lawrence leads the NFL with a 131.3 passer rating against four or fewer pass rushers, the highest by any quarterback in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).

    The Jags also boast an underrated defense

    • 5th best versus the pass (EPA/attempt faced)
    • 14th in pressure rate
    • 2nd fewest rushing yards allowed per game.

    The defense has also dominated in the red zone, trailing only the Vikings in red-zone conversion rate (29%). If the Eagles can’t score TDs or sustain drives…this game could get ugly real quick.

    Props

    Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Packers +2.5

    Trends

    • As a road favorite, CHI is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-0 ATS and 1-0 O/U; as a favorite, 2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; in 2026, 3-1 ATS and 1-3 O/U.
    • GB has not yet played as a home underdog in 2026 (through Week 4). Overall: across all home games, 0-1 ATS and 1-0 O/U; across all underdog games, 0-1 ATS and 1-0 O/U; across all 2026 games, 0-3-1 ATS and 2-2 O/U.
    • CHI streaks through Week 4: 3-1 straight up (2-game win streak), 3-1 against the spread (2-game cover streak), 1-3 toward the total (3-game Under streak).
    • GB streaks through Week 4: 2-2 straight up (1-game win streak), 0-3-1 against the spread (3-game non-cover streak), 2-2 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
    • Green Bay is 0-9-1 ATS in its last 10 games, with no cover in that stretch; the Week 4 game against Tampa Bay was a push at -3.
    • Chicago is 14-7-1 ATS since 2024, including 9-3-1 at home. But on the road under Ben Johnson: 6-4 ATS (and 2-0 ATS as a road favorite).
    • Green Bay has won 9 of its last 10 home games against Chicago.
    • Chicago is 1-6 ATS in Green Bay in the last 7 matchups.
    • Four of the Bears’ last 5 games have gone Under, dating back to the 2025 playoffs.

    Injuries

    Overall

    We have three divisional matchups this week featuring home underdogs: the Packers, Chargers, and Titans. With only one of these teams having won a game so far this season, the Packers are my favorite of the bunch (though I think blindly betting all three is probably the right process play).

    Home underdogs are 14-8-1 ATS. Divisional home underdogs are 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU, and divisional underdogs overall are 10-2 ATS. Printing press.

    Factor in that the Chicago Bears aren’t nearly as profitable ATS on the road as they are at Soldier Field, and that they’re starting a backup QB who threw close to 3 INTs last week, all erased by New York Jets penalties; this is a total lock for me.

    The Packers are never a strong bet on the road as favorites, but as home underdogs -> they are 4-2 ATS since 2023. This is only the 7th time they’ve been home underdogs in the last three seasons. And it’s only their second home game after opening the season with 3 of 4 road games.

    GB narrowly escaped Tampa Bay with a 17-14 win. But as I alluded to in my Thursday Night Football Betting Primer, the Pack could have easily won by 10-plus points had it not been for two red-zone turnovers deep in enemy territory.

    The Packers have the better and more established QB in this game, so it’s a no-brainer for me. I’m also not convinced the Bears defense has become elite over the last three weeks, given their games against the Vikings (Carson Wentz in bad weather), Eagles (broken), and Jets (ran 32 offensive plays).

    The Packers beat the Bears at home last year by 7 points as 6.5-point favorites. In these 3 GB-CHI matchups last year, the home team won and covered.

    Best HC as an underdog ATS in the NFL: Matt LaFleur at 61% (minimum 2 seasons) tied with Houston’s DeMeco Ryans.

    I understand the Packers’ OL woes, but the offense has changed a bit to mitigate the impact. Jordan Love is getting the ball out quickly. Love has averaged 2.48 seconds to throw this season, the quickest mark in the NFL and nearly three-tenths of a second faster than his next-closest qualified-season mark of 2.77 seconds, set in 2023 (Next Gen Stats).

    And maybe…just maybe…the Packers are more fired up to take a shot on Ben Johnson after he knocked this team out of the playoffs last season…

    Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: First Half Under 21.5

    Trends

    • DEN across all road games, 0-2 ATS and 0-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-0 ATS and 0-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-2 ATS and 1-3 O/U.
    • LAC: across all home games, 0-2 ATS and 0-2 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 0-1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 0-3-1 ATS and 1-3 O/U.
    • DEN streaks through Week 4: 2-2 straight up (1-game losing streak), 2-2 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 1-3 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
    • LAC streaks through Week 4: 0-4 straight up (4-game losing streak), 0-3-1 against the spread (3-game non-cover streak), 1-3 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
    • The Chargers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games (Week 4 was a +7 push).
    • The Chargers are 5-2-1 or 6-1-1 ATS as an underdog over their last 8 games in that role, so the underdog role has been their best spot even during the cold stretch.
    • Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last six games.
    • Denver is 3-6 O/U as the road team since 2025.
    • The Chargers have lost 7 straight games, dating back to the 2025 season.
    • The Chargers have the third-worst record toward the over at home since 2025: 3-7

    Injuries

    Overall

    The Broncos have the NFL’s worst first-half offense. They have scored one TD in the first half in four games this season, averaging a meager 3.3 PPG in the first half (dead-last). The Chargers? Not much better.

    Just 7.5 first-half points per game (27th).

    And that was before the Los Angeles Chargers suffered more offensive-line injuries. Two starting tackles are likely out for Week 5: Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. Chargers No. 1 WR Ladd McConkey also re-injured his foot last week.

    So even though the Denver Broncos are down two starting CBs, Pat Surtain and Riley Moss, coverage matters less when the QB doesn’t have time to throw. I think both defenses (even Denver minus their CBs) have trench advantages.

    The Bolts defense actually played half-way decent last week.

    In Week 4 versus Seattle, they finished 8th in EPA/play allowed, 10th in yards/play, and generated the 3rd-highest QB pressure rate. Seattle went just 3-for-12 on third downs. The Chargers now rank 7th in pressure rate on the season.

    Both defenses also rank top-12 in red-zone conversion rate.

    The Chargers are also clearly the worst offense Denver has faced so far this season (KC, JAX, LAR, SF), and only one of those games has surpassed 41 total points.

    Overall, both teams are 1-3 toward the Over this season, and their eight combined games have gone 6-2 toward the Under. Both teams are 0-2 toward the total in their respective home/road roles.

    The last time these two teams met in Week 18 of 2025, the total stayed under 42.5 points. In their first matchup played in LA last year, the final score was 23-20 (went under the 45.5-point total).

    League-wide so far through 2026: closing line totals of 42 or less are only 8-5 Under.

    My official best bet is under in the first half…but I think both the first half and full game total under are firmly in play.

    Update: On Thursday, it was confirmed that HC Sean Payton would reclaim play-calling duties to jump-start the offense. But let’s add the context about how it might not just be on OC Davis Webb for the lack of slow starts. Denver was middle of the pack in first-half points scored LAST season. And they had all those second-half comebacks because they were constantly behind in games LAST season, when Payton was still calling plays. I, for one, believe this sluggish offense is a Bo Nix problem. Not aggressive enough downfield to generate explosives. I could see a scenario where Denver scores on their first possession but then goes super conservative versus an offense missing its two starting tackles.

    I already labeled Broncos-Chargers first half as one of my best bets this week before the play-calling switch. Definitely don’t love it. So an interesting hedge if you are having second thoughts…Broncos to score on first drive is +114 odds (any points count). They get into the red zone on a big pass play because Payton is sick of his offense not scoring in the first half…but then they stall out in the red zone and settle for 3.

    Let’s have our cake (wedding cake obviously) and eat it too.

    Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Steelers -2.5

    Trends

    • As a road underdog, IND is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-0 ATS and 1-0 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-1 ATS and 2-2 O/U.
    • As a home favorite, PIT is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U.
    • IND streaks through Week 4: 2-2 straight up (2-game win streak), 3-1 against the spread (3-game cover streak), 2-2 toward the total (2-game Under streak).
    • PIT streaks through Week 4: 2-2 straight up (1-game losing streak), 2-2 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 2-2 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
    • Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS at home after a loss, and it comes in off a Week 4 loss at Cleveland.

    Injuries

    Steelers will be without WR Michael Pittman Jr. and CB Jamel Dean

    Overall

    The Commanders aren’t the only team facing the uphill trend of playing immediately after a London game. The Colts are in the same situation, and I feel much better betting against them here as road underdogs in Pittsburgh (coming off extra rest after playing two Thursday nights ago).

    I think that matters for a team built like the Steelers, with an older defense and an old quarterback who has been taking a lot of hits. Pittsburgh has increased its passing volume this year compared with last year, when it was more of a run-focused team, and that’s starting to add up for Aaron Rodgers. I think you’ll see his production decline as the season progresses. But for Week 5, I very much like the Steelers laying just a FG. The Colts’ defense is not good (32nd in pressure rate), and Daniel Jones has also not been good (Colts offense ranks 31st in EPA/pass this season).

    Per Next Gen Stats: Jones has committed a league-high five turnovers when under pressure this season, including two interceptions and three strip-sack fumbles lost (8 total sacks taken).

    Even so, the Steelers’ secondary is paper thin and lost DT Derrick Harmon last week.

    I thought the over was an interesting angle early in the week, but not with definite rain showers in the projected weather forecast.

    Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Under 54.5

    Trends

    • As a road favorite, DET is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 0-2 ATS and 2-0 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-2 ATS and 3-0 O/U; across all 2026 games, 1-3 ATS and 4-0 O/U.
    • As a home underdog, ARI is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 0-1 ATS and 0-1 O/U; as an underdog, 2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; in 2026, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U.
    • DET streaks through Week 4: 2-2 straight up (1-game losing streak), 1-3 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 4-0 toward the total (4-game Over streak).
    • ARI streaks through Week 4: 1-3 straight up (3-game losing streak), 2-2 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 2-2 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
    • Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last six games, dating back to the 2025 season.
    • Detroit has gone Over the total in 9 of its last 10 games, and all 4 of its 2026 games have gone Over (avg 61.5 PPG).
    • League-wide in 2025…totals of 50 or more have gone 5-2 Over.
    • Arizona has lost 11 of its last 12 games, dating back to the 2025 season.
    • Arizona is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 home games, dating back to the 2025 season.
    • They are also 6-3 toward the over during that span (4-3 O/U as home underdogs).

    Injuries

    Overall

    If this game were being played at Ford Field…it would be one of my best over bets of the week. But that said…Arizona home games have been pretty fun for high totals, especially with Jacoby “Brisket” Brissett under center. The number is massive, but it might not matter given how bad the Lions’ defense is (who are down yet another CB). Trey McBride and Michael Wilson could have a field day versus this defense. And nobody is stopping this Lions offense. At least that’s what the conventional wisdom would suggest. One angle that could thwart scoring for DET is that Arizona’s rush defense ranks No. 1 in efficiency (EPA/rush faced). Also, Lions OC Drew Petzing was with Arizona for the last several seasons, so the defense might be able to key in more on some of his tendencies. I know this argument works both ways, but the total/spread suggests the market is betting on only one side of this coin. Take advantage.

    The Lions defensively can also generate pressure (8th in pressure rate), which could make life tough for Brissett at times given he just lost his stud LT Paris Johnson Jr. We have seen offenses crumble at times when they lose stalworth pieces…but again the market doesn’t even seem to consider this a factor.

    As I write this out…I’m convinced this game will finish under 54.5 points. A big number gives us plenty of room for error, even if one team scores in the 30s. These teams are combining for just under 52 PPG.

    Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Bills +3.5, Bills ML

    Trends

    • BUF hasn’t played as a road underdog in 2026 (through Week 4). Overall: 1-0 ATS and 1-0 O/U across all road games; no games yet as an underdog; 3-1 ATS and 3-1 O/U across all 2026 games.
    • As a home favorite, LAR is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026 (n=1, through Week 4). Overall: across all home games, 1-0 ATS and 0-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U.
    • BUF streaks through Week 4: 3-1 straight up (1-game losing streak), 3-1 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 3-1 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
    • LAR streaks through Week 4: 2-2 straight up (1-game win streak), 2-2 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 2-2 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
    • The Rams have gone Over the total in seven straight games.
    • The Rams have won 6 straight home games, dating back to the 2025 season (the Week 1 Melbourne game doesn’t count as a home game).
    • 4 of the Bills’ last 5 games have gone Over, dating back to the 2025 playoffs.

    Injuries

    Overall

    Give me Josh Allen as an underdog. All day, every day. Allen has a 59% career ATS record (23-16-2). When you get the chance to bet on elite MVP-calibre QBs with points…it’s an automatic play for me.

    The Bills went 3-1 last year as underdogs (also 3-1 straight up).

    Prime-time underdogs have shone the brightest so far this season (8-3-1 ATS).

    Buffalo has been a profitable bet all season: 3-1 SU and ATS, with their offense scoring 31.75 PPG.

    And the offense tends to rebound big after losses.

    Buffalo has scored 35, 35, 26, 44, 14, 40 after their last six losses (32.3 PPG). Since 2024, Buffalo is 7-2 ATS/SU after a loss.

    The Rams rallied big-time to beat the Eagles a week ago, but I don’t think they will be as lucky two weeks in a row. They have played in a lot of weird games, where you’ve seen both the good and bad sides of this team.

    But after a loss, I go back to betting on the best QB in this game as my sharpest angle.

    Also, Josh Allen in the dome. Sign me up. 8-1 career record all-time in the dome. He posts career-highs in nearly all of his per-game passing metrics when playing indoors.

    Full freaking send.

    Week 5 Remaining Matchups

    Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Bengals -6.5

    Trends

    • As a road favorite, CIN is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-2 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U.
    • As a home underdog (its role here), MIA is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 0-1 ATS and 0-1 O/U; as an underdog, 1-3 ATS and 1-3 O/U; in 2026, 1-3 ATS and 1-3 O/U.
    • CIN streaks through Week 4: 2-2 straight up (2-game losing streak), 2-2 against the spread (2-game non-cover streak), 2-2 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
    • MIA streaks through Week 4: 0-4 straight up (4-game losing streak), 1-3 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 1-3 toward the total (2-game Under streak).
    • Favorites have covered the spread in 7 of the Dolphins’ last 8 games (7-1), and Cincinnati is the favorite here.
    • The Bengals are 6-3 ATS as a road favorite since 2024.
    • The Bengals’ defense has allowed 27 or more points in 2 of its 4 games this season; only Houston and Jacksonville have not reached that mark.

    Injuries

    Overall

    As acknowledged in the injury report, it looks like Ja’Marr Chase has a chance to go in this game (Tee Higgins is more unlikely to play). If he plays, I think my lean is laying the points with Cincy. The only time I feel comfortable betting on Miami is when they are getting at least double-digit scores at home. I don’t want to be fooled by their defensive performance against the Vikings. That was a Kyler Murray offense that was just trying to get him comfortable, resulting in just 15 points on five field goals.

    Joe Burrow should have zero issues against this secondary (31st in EPA/pass faced) even with a compromised pass-catcher room.

    New York Giants at Washington Commanders

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Pass

    Trends

    • As a road underdog, NYG is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 0-1 ATS and 0-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-1 ATS and 1-3 O/U.
    • WAS has not yet played as a home favorite in 2026 (through Week 4). Overall: across all home games, 1-0 ATS and 1-0 O/U; no games yet as a favorite; across all 2026 games, 2-2 ATS and 3-1 O/U.
    • NYG streaks through Week 4: 3-1 straight up (2-game win streak), 3-1 against the spread (2-game cover streak), 1-3 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
    • WAS streaks through Week 4: 1-3 straight up (1-game losing streak), 2-2 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 3-1 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
    • Washington has gone Over the total in 10 of its last 12 games (10-2), dating back to the 2025 season, though its Week 4 game finished Under.
    • Washington is 3-2 ATS in its last 5 games.
    • Eleven or 12 of the Giants’ last 16 post-win games have gone Under, and New York comes off a Week 4 win over the Cardinals.
    • The home team has covered in each of the Giants’ last 5 games, dating back to the 2025 season.

    Injuries

    Stefon Diggs will not play.

    Overall

    Jayden Daniels is 3-0 against the Giants, posting a 107.4 passer rating in those matchups (Next Gen Stats).  So earlier in the week, I thought the Commanders were the right side to be on. We know the pass defense is horrible, but Jameis Winston never feels like a confident bet because of his hyper variance (especially against a blitz-heavy defense). 

    Per Next Gen Stats: The Commanders blitz on 46.4% of passing plays this season, trailing only the Vikings (70.5%), where Commanders defensive coordinator Daronte Jones coached from 2022-25. Winston has a 29.2% success rate against the blitz, the lowest among qualified passers. Winston has averaged 9.2 air yards per attempt when blitzed, the sixth-highest among qualified passers, but just 4.3 air yards per completion, the fourth-lowest among qualified passers. Winston has completed only two downfield passes (10+ air yards) when blitzed, tying Cam Ward for the fewest in the league.

    This game feels much more like a stay-away spot for me, given the Commanders are also coming off an international game without a bye week. So far in 2026…those teams (Rams, 49ers, Ravens, Cowboys) are 4-0 S and 3-1 ATS.

    A divisional game with a tight spread…gross. If I had to pick, I’d take NY with the points and hope the Winston variance works in my favor. You also win if the Giants lose by only a FG.

    Still, I very much prefer the props.

    Najee Harris has been the No. 2 RB for the Giants the last two weeks, but there have been some coach-speak rumblings about potentially getting Devin Singletary more involved this week after being a healthy scratch Weeks 2-3. Harris lost a fumble last week, so it’s possible he sees a major workload reduction (zero touches last week after he turned the ball over). Besides, the matchup is tougher on the ground for all Giants RBs: 5th-fewest rushing yards allowed per game to opposing RBs (73.5). 3 of the last 4 RBs to face the Commanders have finished UNDER their rushing attempts prop.

    Props

    Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Jets -1.5

    Trends

    • As a road underdog, CLE is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 2-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-1 ATS and 2-0 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-1 ATS and 3-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-1 ATS and 3-1 O/U.
    • NYJ has not yet played as a home favorite in 2026 (through Week 4). Overall: across all home games, 2-0 ATS and 0-2 O/U; no games yet as a favorite; across all 2026 games, 2-2 ATS and 1-3 O/U.
    • CLE streaks through Week 4: 3-1 straight up (3-game win streak), 3-1 against the spread (3-game cover streak), 3-1 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
    • NYJ streaks through Week 4: 1-3 straight up (3-game losing streak), 2-2 against the spread (2-game non-cover streak), 1-3 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
    • Cleveland is 3-6 ATS after a win since 2024, and it comes in off a Week 4 win over Pittsburgh.
    • Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games, dating back to the 2025 season.

    Injuries

    Overall

    I like the Jets at home to win this game outright. NYJ is 2-0 ATS at home this season, and the Browns are a team we continue to fade when they play on the road. The Browns are light on their defensive line with injuries to Mason Graham and Mike Hall Jr., opening up the Jets’ run game by a decent margin.

    The Jets offense is catching strays after last week’s performance – but that was more about their defense’s inability to get off the field. New York ran just 32 offensive plays. The last time a team ran that few plays was in 2025. The Las Vegas Raiders, led by QB Geno Smith, ran 30 offensive plays in a 31-0 defeat to the Chiefs. In the next game Smith played, he threw for 4 TDs.

    Rain in the forecast doesn’t necessarily favor either team, so I’ll just side with the slight home favorite (and continue to be versus Deshaun Watson).

    Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Pass

    Trends

    • As a road underdog, LV is 2-0 ATS (100%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-0 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-0 ATS and 2-2 O/U.
    • As a home favorite, NE is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 1-0 ATS and 0-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-0 ATS and 0-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-1-1 ATS and 1-3 O/U.
    • LV streaks through Week 4: 3-1 straight up (1-game losing streak), 4-0 against the spread (4-game cover streak), 2-2 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
    • NE streaks through Week 4: 2-2 straight up (1-game win streak), 2-1-1 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 1-3 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
    • Las Vegas is 6-6 ATS as an underdog over its last 12 games in that role, dating back to the 2025 season.
    • The Patriots have won 14 straight games as a favorite, dating back to the 2025 season.
    • Favorites have covered in each of the last 7 games at Gillette Stadium.
    • The Pats are 7-2-1 ATS as a home favorite since the start of 2025 (3rd-best record during that span).
    • 5 of the Patriots’ last 6 games have gone Under, dating back to the 2025 playoffs.

    Injuries

    Overall

    This is a really interesting matchup, with Klint Kubiak and Mike Vrabel meeting again for the first time since the Super Bowl, when Kubiak was Seattle’s offensive coordinator. The Raiders offense has looked really good under Kubiak with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, and even in a loss to the Chiefs, they showed they can hang with the big boys, which was a question mark for a lot of people, myself included. Now they go on the road to take on the Patriots, and this is another test.

    I’ll admit I’m a bit of a homer here, but I like the Patriots at this number. Eventually, I think Kirk Cousins is going to start to tail off. I just don’t think what he’s doing is sustainable at a 17-game pace, though I may be off base.

    How the Raiders’ defense plays against the Patriots’ offense will be the telltale sign. The Vegas defense has been underrated all season (5th in EPA/play allowed). If it shows out, this could turn into an Under and a spot to bet against Cousins continuing at an elite level and against Drake Maye when he faces a better defense (unlike last week versus a reeling Bills’ defense).

    Full disclosure: I have been on point with the Patriots the last two weeks: I bet them to get boat-raced by the Jags, and I covered the spread last week at Buffalo. This matchup, though, I have much less confidence in how the game will go. Which naturally means it’s a lock for the Pats to win by 3 or 4 points – giving me zero sense of a strong reason to bet on this contest.

    Even so, betting on the Pats blindly at home as strong favorites has been the profitable trend. Either the Pats laying the points… or the game total UNDER 45. But even the total feels shaky given the Pats are down 3 CBs…making it seem like another strong outing in the future for the Raiders veteran QB. That is…if the Raiders WR room can take advantage.

    Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Under 41.5

    Trends

    • As a road favorite, MIN is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 2-0 ATS and 0-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-1 ATS and 1-3 O/U.
    • Overall NO across all home games, 0-2 ATS and 2-0 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-2 ATS and 3-1 O/U.
    • MIN streaks through Week 4: 4-0 straight up (4-game win streak), 3-1 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 1-3 toward the total (3-game Under streak).
    • NO streaks through Week 4: 1-3 straight up (2-game losing streak), 2-2 against the spread (2-game non-cover streak), 3-1 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
    • Minnesota has won 9 straight games, a streak that began on 12/7/25 (2025 season), and 8 of the 9 wins have come by 1-13 points.
    • New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games, but 5 of its last 7 home games have gone Under.
    • Sixteen of New Orleans’ last 23 games have gone Under the total, dating back to the 2025 season.
    • Saints QB Tyler Shough is 9-4 ATS to start his career (7-1 ATS as an underdog)
    • Six of Minnesota’s last 7 games have gone Under, dating back to the 2025 season.

    Injuries

    Overall

    Kyler Murray hasn’t looked good behind this banged-up Vikings offensive line.

    So even though Minnesota is 4-0, I think that just means you’re getting value on the home team. The Saints just got destroyed on MNF by the Atlanta Falcons, so that feels to be inflating the spread in favor of the road team.

    I understand Brian Flores will be a tough out for any quarterback, especially a QB like Tyler Shough, who will definitely make mistakes against that defense.

    But no game with the Saints is flawless anyway, so even with the turnovers that are inevitably going to happen baked in, I have no confidence betting on Murray to go on the road in New Orleans behind a compromised offensive line.

    I like the Saints as an underdog upset special this week (squad riding with Seth Woolcock’s upset of the week), while 100% backing the under.

    • The Saints are 1-4 O/U as home underdogs in the Kellen Moore era.
    • Minnesota is 9-19 O/U as a favorite since 2013.
    • Kyler Murray is just 15-21-0 (41.7%) ATS as a market favorite.

    Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Titans +7.5, Under 38

    Trends

    • As a road favorite, HOU is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 0-1 ATS and 0-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 0-3 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 0-4 ATS and 2-2 O/U.
    • As a home underdog, TEN is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 1-0 ATS and 1-0 O/U; as an underdog, 2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; in 2026, 2-2 ATS and 1-3 O/U.
    • HOU streaks through Week 4: 0-4 straight up (4-game losing streak), 0-4 against the spread (4-game non-cover streak), 2-2 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
    • TEN streaks through Week 4: 0-4 straight up (4-game losing streak), 2-2 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 1-3 toward the total (2-game Under streak).
    • Tennessee is 12-6 toward the Over (66.7%) since Cam Ward became the starting QB.
    • Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games, a stretch that runs back to the 2025 playoffs.
    • Houston’s last 4 road division games have all gone Under.

    Injuries

    Overall

    This line screams to me: Texans win, but the Titans cover the 7.5. Both teams are winless, which makes a touchdown-plus a bit generous for Houston (who is also 0-4 ATS this season). Home divisional underdogs have been cooking this year, so that, along with the under (Texans defense + Titans offense), seems like the no-brainer way to attack this AFC South matchup.

    Houston’s defense should have its best game to date, since the Titans are by far the worst offense they have faced all season (BUF, CIN, IND, DAL). HC DeMeco Ryans has also taken back defensive play-calling duties.

    San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Under 46.5

    Trends

    • SF has not yet played as a road underdog in 2026 (through Week 4). Overall: no non-neutral road games yet; as an underdog, 1-0 ATS and 0-1 O/U; in all 2026 games, 3-1 ATS and 2-2 O/U.
    • As a home favorite, SEA is 0-0-2 ATS and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 0-0-2 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-1-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 1-1-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U.
    • SF streaks through Week 4: 4-0 straight up (4-game win streak), 3-1 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 2-2 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
    • SEA streaks through Week 4: 3-1 straight up (1-game win streak), 1-1-2 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 2-2 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
    • Seattle is 15-8-3 ATS as a favorite (includes the Week 4 push at -7 against the Chargers).
    • Seattle has won 9 straight home games, dating back to the 2025 season.
    • Seattle is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 NFC West games since the 2025 season.
    • Seattle’s last four home division games have all gone Over since the 2025 season.
    • Seattle is 8-4 at home toward the over since the start of last season.

    Injuries

    Overall

    This is the game I’m probably most excited about on the slate. It’s a divisional matchup, NFC West, two juggernaut teams. The 49ers are undefeated, and the Seahawks are trying to knock them off as the reigning Super Bowl champions.

    I don’t have a lean here, but Seth Woolcock loves the under as one of his best bets of the week. In their three matchups last season, the scores were 13-17, 41-6, and 13-3.

    The 49ers’ offense did come down to Earth last week against a tougher Broncos defense, so we could see something similar on the road against Seattle.

    Emanuel Wilson has taken on a bigger role in the Seahawks’ backfield after Jadarian Price’s injury. But I do question his monster rushing+receiving yards line in Week 5 at a whopping 79.5 yards. The 49ers defense has allowed the 6th-fewest combined rushing+receiving yards to RBs this season – even with the recent strong performances from RJ Harvey (all receiving), Jeremiyah Love, and De’Von Achane.

    Last week, Wilson had two carries for 15-yard gains, whereas on his other 19 carries he averaged just 2.7 yards per clip (19 for 51). His efficiency has been modest at best, and his 3 catches for 39 yards (23 on one catch) don’t seem sustainable, especially with George Holani heavily involved as a receiver out of the backfield. He’s a volume bet for sure…but Seattle controlling the ball and tempo against the Niners isn’t as much of a guarantee.

    Among qualified rushers, Wilson ranks in the bottom-20 in success rate, yards per carry, and EPA/attempt.

    I’m also hesitant to call any matchup against a defense led by linebacker Fred Warner great for an opposing RB. Per Next Gen Stats… Warner has recorded a tackle in the run game on a career-high 26.9% of snaps this season, the third-highest rate among off-ball linebackers with at least 50 snaps in run defense, trailing only Azeez Al-Shaair (28.1%) and Alex Singleton (27.7%). Warner has also missed only one tackle in run defense, while Al-Shaair and Singleton have missed two and five tackles, respectively. As a defense, the 49ers have a 11.0% missed-tackle rate on called-run plays, the sixth-lowest in the NFL.

    SF is allowing just 3.7 YPC this season. 5-star BET on the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet this week.

    That’s where I will stop betting unders in this game. Seattle loves to give up RB production in the passing game, so I think this is a spot where Christian McCaffrey gets peppered with targets. His catches have gone down in four straight weeks (5, 4, 4, 3), but so much of that has been game-script-related. In a more back-and-forth contest, I think he stays more involved for all four quarters. Besides, in his last 3 games versus Seattle…he has 9, 6, and 5 catches…all hitting the over on 4.5.

    Props

    Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Over 43.5

    Trends

    • BAL has not yet played as a road underdog in 2026 (through Week 4). Overall: across all road games, 1-0 ATS and 1-0 O/U; no games yet as an underdog; across all 2026 games, 1-2-1 ATS and 2-2 O/U.
    • ATL has not yet played as a home favorite in 2026 (through Week 4). Overall: 0-1 ATS and 0-1 O/U across all home games; no games as a favorite yet; 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U across all 2026 games.
    • BAL streaks through Week 4: 3-1 straight up (2-game win streak), 1-2-1 against the spread (2-game non-cover streak), 2-2 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
    • ATL streaks through Week 4: 2-2 straight up (2-game win streak), 2-2 against the spread (2-game cover streak), 2-2 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
    • Baltimore is 2-8 or 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games (including the 2025 season), after failing to cover as an 11.5-point home favorite in Week 4.
    • Baltimore has gone Over the total in 5 of its last 6 games (5-1).
    • Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games, dating back to the 2025 season.

    Injuries

    Overall

    No Lamar Jackson. If the Ravens organization learned anything last year, it’s that when he returned without being fully healthy, it was a disaster, and you can’t let that happen again. You give him as many weeks as humanly possible, because you need to get back to a 100 percent healthy Lamar Jackson or you compromise the season.

    Tyler Huntley has been productive in the Lamar role before, so he can at least right the ship in the meantime while featuring Derrick Henry a ton.

    But this is a tough draw for the Ravens RB versus the No. 1 run defense in rushing yards allowed per game. The Ravens were also extremely banged up across their interior OL, which is why they traded for center Cam Jurgens.

    On the Falcons’ side, this feels like a natural flat spot. Third prime-time game in a row. Home favorites versus a backup QB. Two great offensive performances in back-to-back weeks. But there’s nobody on the defense who can stop Zay Flowers. And as we saw Thursday night with Jalen Hurts, plucky mobile QBs can terrorize defenses. With the Ravens’ star pass rusher Trey Hendrickson also out…I like the game total over the best in this matchup.

    Huntley’s last 3 starts have all gone over the projected game totals.

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