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NFL Betting Primer, Picks & Predictions: Week 8

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Welcome back to yet another edition of Andrew Erickson’s NFL Betting Primer powered by BettingPros.

We’re gearing up for a fun Week 8 slate with 14 games to break down. May your Halloween candy be sweet and your November 1st sugar hangover be cured by winning football bets. LFG.

My Week 7 betting card finished 7-6 (2-4 on sides/totals and 5-2 on player props), with Sunday night and Monday night going 0-2.

46-33 overall for 58%.

The Vikings -5 and the Broncos -4.5 both cashed. The Chiefs +3 on Sunday night and the Eagles +4.5 on Monday night did not, and the Over 52.5 in Packers-Lions also missed, with only 37 points. [the second missed total - confirm which Under] On props, Kyler Murray's Under 30.5 pass attempts, Kenny Gainwell's Over 10.5 rushing yards, Tyrone Tracy's Under 25.5 rushing yards, Tank Dell's Over 7.5 receiving yards and Kyren Williams' Over 62.5 rushing yards all cashed (5-2). Pat Freiermuth's Over 29.5 receiving yards and Tyler Higbee's Over 4.5 receptions did not.

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Four things stand out in the league-wide trends heading into Week 8. First, the prime-time underdog run is over. Underdogs covered 10 straight prime-time games through the middle of the season, then went 0-3 in Week 7 (the Patriots on Thursday, the Chiefs on Sunday night and the Eagles on Monday night) while the Bears, Seahawks and Cowboys all covered as favorites (Packers continued the trend of favorites covering on Thursday Night versus Carolina).

Prime-time underdogs are still 14-7-1 ATS for the season and favorites are 7-14-1, and Thursday-night underdogs are 5-3 ATS (eight games, including the Melbourne opener). The prime-time games this week are Panthers-Packers on Thursday (Carolina is a road underdog, in its own primer), Eagles-Commanders on Sunday night (Washington -5.5) and Bears-Seahawks on Monday night (Seattle -3).

Second, the low-total Under cooled off a little and the high-total Over held. Totals of 42 or lower went 2-1 Over in Week 7 (Browns-Titans and Dolphins-Jets went Over; Colts-Vikings stayed Under) but are still 18-10 Under for the season (64%). Totals of 50 or more are 10-6 Over, and totals of 52 or more are 6-2 Over. Three Week 8 games sit at 42 or lower on the current numbers (Browns-Steelers, Chiefs-Broncos and Eagles-Commanders) and two are at 52 or higher (Cardinals-Cowboys and Ravens-Bills), so watch the closing numbers.

Third, home underdogs had a bad week, and the real edge is still divisional. Home underdogs went just 1-5 ATS in Week 7 (the Falcons were the only cover) and sit at 19-21-2 ATS for the season (47.5% of decided bets), with 15 outright wins in 42 games (36%).

Divisional underdogs are 22-7 ATS (15 outright wins in 29 games), with road divisional underdogs 13-3 ATS and 11-5 toward the Over, and home divisional underdogs 7-4 ATS (6-5 straight up). Week 8 has seven divisional games: Colts-Jaguars, Browns-Steelers, Vikings-Lions, Falcons-Buccaneers, Patriots-Dolphins, Chiefs-Broncos and Eagles-Commanders.

Five of the underdogs are on the road (the Colts, Browns, Vikings, Falcons and Eagles) and two are at home (the Dolphins and the Broncos). 

Fourth, rest and schedule have mattered more than the market has priced. Teams with at least three more days of rest than their opponent are 14-5-1 ATS and 17-3 straight up in 2026, and the favorites in that spot are 12-2-1 ATS (15-0 straight up). The Jaguars (14 days vs. 7 for the Colts), Bills (14 vs. 7 for the Ravens), Commanders (13 vs. 6 for the Eagles) and Patriots (10 vs. 7 for the Dolphins) are favorites with the edge.

The Chargers (14 vs. 7 for the Rams) and Bears (11 vs. 8 for the Seahawks) are underdogs with the edge, a group that is 2-3 ATS. The flip side: underdogs facing an opponent with at least three extra days of rest are 2-12-1 ATS and 0-15 straight up, which is where the Colts, Ravens, Eagles and Dolphins sit this week. The Steelers also play after their Paris game with no bye, and teams in that spot are 3-6 ATS in 2026 (Browns-Steelers).

A reminder that Houston, the Giants, New Orleans and San Francisco are on bye, so we have 14 games this week, and Panthers-Packers on Thursday night had its own stand-alone primer.

For my thoughts on all the games on the Week 8 slate, be sure to check out the weekly lookahead lines show I do every week with Ryan Wormley (Monday release following every Sunday slate) on the BettingPros YouTube channel:

League-Wide Trends

Week 7 Recap

  • Favorites went 8-6 ATS; underdogs went 6-8 ATS (14 games). Underdogs won 4 of the 14 outright (the Dolphins, Giants, Falcons and Buccaneers).
  • Home teams went 3-10 ATS; road teams went 10-3 ATS (1 neutral-site game excluded).
  • Home underdogs went 1-5 ATS (the Falcons covered; the Titans, Ravens, Cardinals, Raiders and Eagles did not).
  • Overall O/U: 9-5. Totals of 42 or lower went 2-1 Over, totals above 42 went 7-4 Over, and totals of 50 or more went 1-1.

Full Season 2026 (through Week 7)

  • Favorites went 48-54-5 ATS; underdogs went 54-48-5 ATS (107 games). Underdogs have won 38 of 107 games outright (36%; one game was a tie).
  • Home teams went 44-53-4 ATS; road teams went 53-44-4 ATS (6 neutral-site games excluded).
  • Overall O/U: 55-52.
  • Closing totals of 42 or less are 18-10 toward the Under (64%, 28 games), including 2-1 Over in Week 7; closing totals above 42 are 45-34 Over (79 games), including 7-4 Over in Week 7.
  • Closing totals of 50 or more are 10-6 Over (16 games), and went 1-1 in Week 7.

Home Underdogs (through Week 7)

  • Home underdogs are 19-21-2 ATS (42 games; neutral-site games excluded), which is 47.5% of decided bets.
  • Home underdogs have won 15 of those 42 games outright (36%), and the O/U is 23-19 toward the Over.
  • Divisional home underdogs are 7-4 ATS (6-5 straight up); all divisional underdogs are 22-7 ATS (29 games, 15 outright wins). Non-divisional home underdogs are 12-17-2 ATS (31 games).

Prime-Time Highlight (Wed Opener/TNF/SNF/MNF, through Week 7)

  • Favorites went 7-14-1 ATS; underdogs went 14-7-1 ATS (22 games). Underdogs have won 12 of the 22 outright.
  • Home teams went 12-8-1 ATS; road teams went 8-12-1 ATS (1 neutral-site game excluded).
  • Overall O/U: 11-11.
  • Streaks: prime-time underdogs covered 10 straight games (all 10 won outright, from Falcons-Packers in Week 3 through Seahawks-Broncos in Week 6) before Dallas failed to cover at Green Bay in Week 6. Washington covered on Monday night of Week 6, and then underdogs went 0-3 in Week 7, so prime-time underdogs have failed to cover three straight. The Over hit in two of the three Week 7 prime-time games (Patriots-Bears and Cowboys-Eagles; Chiefs-Seahawks stayed Under).
  • Prime-time home underdogs are 6-1 ATS (all 6 covers were outright wins). The Eagles were the Week 7 loss.
  • Thursday nights only (7 games, including the Melbourne opener): underdogs are 5-2 ATS and favorites 2-5; home teams are 4-2 ATS and road teams 2-4 (1 neutral-site game excluded); the O/U is 4-3.
  • Sunday-night underdogs are 5-2 ATS and Monday-night underdogs are 4-3 ATS.

Totals by Range (through Week 7)

  • Closing totals of 40 or lower: 5-7 Over (12 games; the average closing total was 38.8 and the average game finished with 37.8 points).
  • Closing totals of 40.5 to 42: 5-11 Over (16 games; 41.1 average total, 38.1 average points). Combined, totals of 42 or lower are 10-18 (64% Under, 28 games; 40.1 average total, 38.0 average points).
  • Closing totals of 42.5 to 45: 17-14 Over (31 games; 43.6 average total, 45.0 average points). Underdogs are 17-11-3 ATS in this range and favorites 11-17-3.
  • Closing totals of 45.5 to 47.5: 12-9 Over (21 games; 46.6 average total, 51.7 average points).
  • Closing totals of 48 to 49.5: 6-5 Over (11 games; 48.7 average total, 48.7 average points). Totals of 48 or higher are 16-11 Over (27 games).
  • Closing totals of 50 to 51.5: 4-4 Over (8 games; 51.0 average total, 47.8 average points). Totals of 52 or higher are 6-2 Over (8 games; 53.8 average total, 58.0 average points), which is what drives the 10-6 Over mark for totals of 50 or more.
  • Prime time: games with totals of 48 or higher are 4-4 Over (8 games), and prime-time games with totals of 45 or lower are 4-5 toward the Over (9 games).
  • Scoring by week (average combined points / average closing total): Week 1 49.4 / 45.2, Week 2 40.4 / 45.5, Week 3 47.2 / 45.0, Week 4 47.8 / 45.1, Week 5 48.4 / 44.5, Week 6 43.6 / 45.6, Week 7 45.1 / 44.9. The season average is 46.0 points per game against an average closing total of 45.1, and the Over is 55-52 (Week-by-week O/U: 8-8, 6-10, 8-8, 9-7, 8-7, 7-7, 9-5).

Divisional Games (through Week 7)

  • Divisional underdogs are 22-7 ATS (76%, 29 games) and 15-14 straight up; divisional favorites are 7-22 ATS. In non-divisional games, underdogs are 32-41-5 ATS (78 games) and 23-55 straight up.
  • Home divisional underdogs are 7-4 ATS and 6-5 straight up (11 games), and those games are 5-6 toward the Over (44.2 average points against a 43.3 average total).
  • Road divisional underdogs are 13-3 ATS but only 7-9 straight up (16 games), and those games are 11-5 toward the Over (49.6 average points against a 45.6 average total).
  • Divisional home teams are 10-17 ATS and road teams 17-10 ATS. Divisional games overall are 17-12 Over (47.6 average points against a 44.7 average total).
  • Non-divisional underdogs are 12-17-2 ATS at home (31 games) and 19-22-2 ATS on the road (43 games), so the underdog edge in 2026 has been almost entirely a divisional one.

Spread Size and Roles (through Week 7)

  • Games with a spread of 3 or fewer (45 games): underdogs are 18-24-3 ATS and 18-27 straight up.
  • Spreads of 3.5 to 6.5 (37 games): underdogs are 20-17 ATS and 12-25 straight up.
  • Spreads of 7 to 9.5 (19 games): underdogs are 12-5-2 ATS and 6-13 straight up. Spreads of 10 or more (6 games): underdogs are 4-2 ATS and 2-4 straight up (San Francisco and Kansas City covered as double-digit favorites; Baltimore, Minnesota, the Rams and Houston did not). All spreads of 7 or more combined: underdogs are 16-7-2 ATS (70% of decided bets) and 8-17 straight up.
  • By role: home favorites are 25-32-2 ATS and road favorites 21-19-2; home underdogs are 19-21-2 ATS and road underdogs 32-25-2 (59 games).
  • Prime time vs. everything else: prime-time underdogs are 14-7-1 ATS and 12-10 straight up (22 games), while underdogs in all other games are 40-41-4 ATS and 26-59 straight up (85 games). The prime-time O/U is 11-11 and every other game is 44-41.

Rest and Schedule Spots (through Week 7)

  • Teams with at least three more days between games than their opponent are 14-5-1 ATS and 17-3 straight up (20 team-games). Favorites in that spot are 12-2-1 ATS and 15-0 straight up (15 games); underdogs in that spot are 2-3 ATS and 2-3 straight up (5 games).
  • The flip side: underdogs facing an opponent with at least three extra days of rest are 2-12-1 ATS and 0-15 straight up, and favorites with that rest disadvantage are 3-2 ATS.
  • Six teams have played a game off a bye so far: Carolina and Kansas City in Week 6 (both won and covered as favorites) and Minnesota, Miami, Cincinnati and Detroit in Week 7. Those teams are 4-2 ATS; Minnesota and Detroit were the two non-covers, both as favorites, and Miami covered as the only underdog.
  • Teams coming off a neutral-site or international game with no bye in between are 3-6 ATS in 2026 (2-0 after the Week 1 Melbourne game, 1-6 since Week 3). Pittsburgh, which played New Orleans in Paris in Week 7, is in that spot against Cleveland.
  • After a loss (or a tie), teams are 47-37-7 ATS (favorites 19-14-4, underdogs 28-23-3) and the O/U is 48-43. After a win, teams are 40-50-1 ATS and the O/U is 46-45.

Margins and Key Numbers (through Week 7)

  • 64 of 107 games (60%) have been decided by 8 points or fewer, 26 (24%) by 3 or fewer and 31 (29%) by 14 or more.
  • Nineteen games have been decided by exactly 3 points and 11 by exactly 7, so the half-point on a 3 or a 7 has mattered more than any other number this season.

How This Maps to Week 8 (current BettingPros lines)

  • Divisional games (7): Colts at Jaguars (IND +9.5, best price +10.0), Browns at Steelers (CLE +3.5), Vikings at Lions (MIN +3), Falcons at Buccaneers (ATL +2), Eagles at Commanders (PHI +5.5) and, as home underdogs, Patriots at Dolphins (MIA +7) and Chiefs at Broncos (DEN +1.5). The five road underdogs fall in the group that is 13-3 ATS and 11-5 toward the Over; the Dolphins and Broncos are in the home-divisional-underdog group (7-4 ATS, 5-6 toward the Over).
  • Totals of 42 or lower (10-18 Over): Browns at Steelers (39.5), Chiefs at Broncos (40.5) and Eagles at Commanders (40.5).
  • Totals of 42.5 to 45: Falcons at Buccaneers (best prices 44.5 and 45.5), Patriots at Dolphins (43.5 and 44.5) and Chargers at Rams (44.0 and 45.5); Raiders at Jets (45.0 and 46.5) straddles the top of that range.
  • Totals of 45.5 to 47.5 (12-9 Over): Colts at Jaguars (46.0 and 47.0), Titans at Bengals (46.0 and 47.0), Vikings at Lions (45.5 and 46.5) and Bears at Seahawks (46.5).
  • Totals of 52 or higher (6-2 Over): Cardinals at Cowboys (54.5) and Ravens at Bills (53.5 and 54.5).
  • Rest: the Jaguars, Bills and Commanders are off the Week 7 bye and the Patriots played Thursday, so all four are favorites with the rest edge (12-2-1 ATS). The Chargers (off the bye) and Bears (Thursday game) are underdogs with the edge (2-3 ATS). The Colts, Ravens, Eagles and Dolphins are underdogs with the deficit (2-12-1 ATS, 0-15 straight up), and the Rams and Seahawks are favorites with the deficit (3-2 ATS). Cardinals-Cowboys is a one-day gap (Dallas played Monday night).
  • Spread size: the Colts (+9.5 to +10.0), Titans (+10.5), Cardinals (+7.5 best price, +6.5 consensus), Chargers (+7.0 best price, +6.5 consensus) and Dolphins (+7) are underdogs of 7 or more in the 16-7-2 ATS group; the Colts and Titans are the two double-digit underdogs (4-2 ATS for double-digit underdogs, 4-2 straight up for the favorites).

Week 8 NFL Betting Primer

Official Plays

  1. Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Over 45.5
  2. Detroit Lions’ Team Total Over 24.5 points
  3. Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
  4. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Under 40.5
  5. Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills Over 54.5
  6. Washington Commanders -5.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
  7. New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Over 43.5
  8. Atlanta Falcons ML at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  9. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos ML
  10. Chase Brown OVER 58.5 rushing yards
  11. DK Metcalf UNDER 4.5 receptions
  12. Jonathan Taylor UNDER 15.5 rushing attempts
  13. Antonio Williams OVER 34.5 receiving yards
  14. Garrett Wilson OVER 62.5 receiving yards
  15. Brenton Strange OVER 3.5 receptions
  16. Geno Smith UNDER 30.5 pass attempts

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Props

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), TEN is 2-1 ATS (67%) and 1-2 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 7). Overall: across all road games, 2-2 ATS and 1-3 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-4 ATS and 3-4 O/U.
  • The road team has covered in each of the Titans’ last four road games.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), CIN is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 7). Overall: across all home games, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-2-1 ATS and 4-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-2-1 ATS and 4-2 O/U.
  • TEN streaks through Week 7: 1-6 straight up (1-game losing streak), 3-4 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 3-4 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
  • CIN streaks through Week 7: 4-2 straight up (2-game win streak), 3-2-1 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 4-2 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
  • Tennessee comes in off a 27-24 home loss to Cleveland as a 2.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 7). Cincinnati comes in off a 35-13 road win at Baltimore as a 3-point favorite, covering (Week 7; Week 6 bye).
  • Cincinnati trailed Baltimore 13-0 at halftime last week and then scored 35 straight points in a 35-13 win, with Joe Burrow throwing for 292 yards and four touchdowns. The Bengals are 4-2 straight up and on a 2-game win streak.
  • Tennessee’s only win this season came at Indianapolis (26-20 in Week 6, as a 6.5-point underdog). Last week the Titans lost 27-24 to Cleveland as a 2.5-point home underdog even though Tony Pollard scored three touchdowns.
  • In the six games with a spread of 10 or more points in 2026 through Week 7, underdogs are 4-2 ATS, while favorites are 4-2 straight up.
  • Games with closing totals from 45.5 to 47.5 are 12-9 toward the Over in 2026 through Week 7 (21 games), averaging 51.7 combined points against an average closing total of 46.6. BettingPros has this game’s total at about 46.5.
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): TEN 37.7 against 40.4 (3-4 O/U); CIN 47.5 against 47.0 (4-2 O/U).
  • TEN is 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7); CIN is 3-2-1 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 7).

Injuries

Betting Preview

Cincy is 4-1 toward the over as a favorite this season, while the Titans are riding a two-game over streak.

The Bengals were an easy side for me early in the week, but the spread moving from 10.5 to 12.5 has me gun-shy

I get that Tennessee only has one win, which came at Indianapolis, and last week it lost at home to a Cleveland team it was supposed to hang with, even though Tony Pollard had a three-touchdown game.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, is starting to heat up. The Bengals came out of the bye sluggish against Baltimore, trailed 13-0 at the half, and then ran off 35 straight points. I think that carries over. Cincinnati is more than 10 points better than Tennessee in a vacuum; it is at home, and the offense got going last week.

I think I’d just bet on points overall from a sides/totals perspective. But really, there is nothing I need to bet here.

Except for Chase Brown props. The Bengals RB has underwhelmed this season, hitting 60-plus rushing yards just twice in six games. But he has faced a tough schedule of run defenses, with Week 8 looking like the easiest matchup he has faced all season.

And although it seemed like Samaje Perine was eating into Brown’s touch before the bye week, the 70-30 split resumed in favor of Brown in Week 7.

Every starting RB has seen at least 13 carries versus the Titans, and Brown has double-digit carries in all but one game this year (and 14 of his last 15 games played).

Every starting RB who has faced the Titans this season has hit at least 60 rushing yards (except Saquon Barkley, who got injured in Week 2).

And that was with stud DT Jeffery Simmons, who was just traded to the Chicago Bears.

Props

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Browns +3.5

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), CLE is 1-2 ATS (33%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 7). Overall: across all road games, 2-2 ATS and 3-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 5-2 ATS and 4-3 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), PIT is 2-0 ATS (100%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 7). Overall: across all home games, 3-0 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 4-1 ATS and 3-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 5-2 ATS and 4-3 O/U.
  • CLE streaks through Week 7: 5-2 straight up (2-game win streak), 5-2 against the spread (2-game cover streak), 4-3 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
  • PIT streaks through Week 7: 5-2 straight up (3-game win streak), 5-2 against the spread (3-game cover streak), 4-3 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
  • Cleveland comes in off a 27-24 road win at Tennessee as a 2.5-point favorite, covering (Week 7). Pittsburgh comes in off a 16-10 neutral-site win over New Orleans as a 3-point favorite, covering (Week 7).
  • Neutral-site games are excluded from the home/road splits above: PIT vs. NO in Week 7.
  • Pittsburgh played last week’s game in Paris, a neutral-site game, and has no bye before this one. Teams playing after a neutral-site or international game with no bye in between are 3-6 ATS in 2026 (2-0 after the Week 1 Melbourne game, 1-6 since Week 3).
  • Cleveland won the Week 4 meeting 27-24 in Cleveland as a 2.5-point underdog, and the game went Over a 38.5 total (51 points).
  • Divisional favorites are 7-22 ATS in 2026 through Week 7. Pittsburgh is a home divisional favorite in this game.
  • Both teams are 4-3 toward the Over in 2026 despite their totals ranging from 37.5 to 42.5. Games with a closing total of 42 or lower are 10-18 toward the Over (Under 64%, 28 games) in 2026 through Week 7, averaging 38.0 combined points against an average closing total of 40.1. BettingPros has this game’s total at about 39.5
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): CLE 39.9 against 39.6 (4-3 O/U); PIT 41.6 against 40.8 (4-3 O/U).
  • CLE is 5-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7); PIT is 4-2 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7).

Injuries

Betting Preview

I am on the Browns +3.5, with the spot being the main angle: Pittsburgh is playing right after its game in Paris with no bye in between, and teams in that position have not been good against the spread. It is the same logic behind the Giants +10.5 that I teased in the BettingPros Week 7 primer and should have made my best bet, since Houston came off London and lost outright. Teams coming off London games with no bye are 0-4 ATS this season, and in 2024 the Jets played right after a London game under Aaron Rodgers without a bye and failed to cover (lost outright).

We have already seen the Browns beat this team earlier this season, on Thursday night, 27-24 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Pittsburgh needed a Boswell 31-yard field goal just before the half to get to 10-21 at the break, and the Steelers went just 4-13 on third downs. So it is clearly possible for Cleveland to win this outright. Both teams are 5-2 ATS and 5-2 straight up, and both have played almost exclusively close games and won most of them. The two quarterbacks also rank first and second in sacks taken (Watson 25, Rodgers 22). I expect this one to come down to a field goal, and that is why the half-point hook matters to me. I am not pretending there is nothing on the other side. The home team has won each of the last 10 Browns-Steelers games, the Steelers have won 22 straight regular-season home games against Cleveland, and the Browns are 0-9 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record, which is not ideal for a road underdog.

Four of the last five Steelers games have also gone Over, and the earlier meeting went Over, so I am not on the Under just because the total sits below 40.

DK Metcalf has only gone over 4.5 receptions in games where Aaron Rodgers attempted at least 40 passes this season (2/7 games this season, 27%).

The Steelers WR has needed at least 9 targets in both of those games (at Cleveland and at Tampa Bay) to catch just 5 passes. He has just a 55% catch rate this season, the 8th worst among all qualified wide receivers, and he is bottom-10 in separation among those same qualifiers. The Browns allow the 4th-fewest targets to No. 1 wide receivers this season, at six per game. So even though Metcalf did go over this number the last time he faced the Browns…he ran so hot toward the end of the game as a tale of two halves: just 22 of his 115 yards came before halftime, with 93 of them (and three of his five catches) arriving in Pittsburgh's fourth-quarter comeback push.

The Steelers moved him inside to get him away from CB1 Denzel Ward, where he was getting blanked in coverage (1 catch on 3 targets).

Also, the Sharps are backing Metcalf under 4.5 recs at -122 (based on $2.5K in prediction market liquidity). DraftKings offers -118 via the Smart Money Picks Tool on BettingPros.

Props

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Props

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), IND is 2-1 ATS (67%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 7). Overall: across all road games, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-2 ATS and 3-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-3 ATS and 4-3 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), JAX is 2-0 ATS (100%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 7). Overall: across all home games, 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-3 ATS and 2-4 O/U.
  • IND streaks through Week 7: 2-5 straight up (3-game losing streak), 4-3 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 4-3 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
  • JAX streaks through Week 7: 4-2 straight up (1-game losing streak), 3-3 against the spread (2-game non-cover streak), 2-4 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
  • Indianapolis comes in off a 16-10 road loss at Minnesota as a 6.5-point underdog, covering (Week 7). Jacksonville comes in off a 34-31 neutral-site loss to Houston as a 2.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 6; Week 7 bye).
  • Days between games: IND has 7 and JAX has 14 (coming off its Week 7 bye).
  • The Jaguars have won 10 straight home games versus the Colts (but the underdogs have covered in 7 of the last 8 games).
  • Neutral-site games are excluded from the home/road splits above: IND vs. WAS in Week 4; JAX vs. PHI in Week 5; JAX vs. HOU in Week 6.
  • Jacksonville went 7-2 ATS at home in the 2025 season. In 2026 the Jaguars are 2-0 ATS and 2-0 straight up in their two true home games (34-10 over Cleveland and 35-6 over New England, as an 8.5-point and a 3-point favorite). Their Week 5 and Week 6 games were neutral-site games in London, both non-covers.
  • Teams with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 14-5-1 ATS and 17-3 straight up in 2026 (Weeks 2-7, 20 games). Favorites in that spot are 12-2-1 ATS and 15-0 straight up; underdogs in that spot are 2-3 ATS and 2-3 straight up.
  • Divisional underdogs are 22-7 ATS in 2026 through Week 7 and have won outright 15 times in 29 games. Road divisional underdogs are 13-3 ATS (11-5 Over) and home divisional underdogs are 7-4 ATS (6-5 straight up). Indianapolis is a road divisional underdog in this game.
  • Underdogs of 7 or more points are 16-7-2 ATS but 8-17 straight up in 2026 through Week 7 (25 games); underdogs getting 7 to 9.5 points are 12-5-2 ATS. Indianapolis is getting 9.5 to 10 points.
  • Indianapolis is 2-1 ATS as a road underdog in 2026 (covers at Kansas City and at Minnesota, a non-cover at Pittsburgh).
  • Games with closing totals from 45.5 to 47.5 are 12-9 toward the Over in 2026 through Week 7 (21 games), averaging 51.7 combined points against an average closing total of 46.6. BettingPros has this game’s total at about 46.5.
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): IND 47.7 against 44.6 (4-3 O/U); JAX 43.0 against 44.3 (2-4 O/U).
  • IND is 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7); JAX is 3-3 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6).

Injuries

 

Betting Preview

I like the Jaguars if forced to choose a side. The Vikings did not destroy the Colts like we all wanted: the Vikings -5 I gave out on the Week 7 best bets show cashed, but if you laid 6.5 you were left holding the bag when Indianapolis covered. That Vikings team is elite defensively, and the question was whether its offense could do its part. Jacksonville’s offense doesn’t have that problem. With Trevor Lawrence and Liam Coen, it has been a wagon since the second half of last season; I think it is easily a top-10 offense, and it should have its way against a Colts defense that now has real questions about who is on the field.

DeForest Buckner was traded to San Francisco and Quenton Nelson to Seattle. Jacksonville is also traditionally one of the better teams against the spread at home. The last two games were in London, but don’t let that make you forget how good this team is back in Duval County. Indianapolis is best on offense when it runs Jonathan Taylor, and the Jaguars are best at stopping the run, so the matchup doesn’t help the Colts either.
The number has grown since the early lookahead lines show, from -7.5 to -10.5, so I am paying a higher price for the same opinion.

I am still willing to lay it, but respect the trends against it: divisional underdogs are 22-7 ATS this season, and underdogs of 7 or more points are 16-7-2. If you don’t want to lay the big number in a divisional game, consider the props.

Taylor is the only running back besides Christian McCaffrey to see at least 17 carries against the Jaguars’ defense over the last two years. No running back has passed 15 carries against Jacksonville this season, and the Jaguars have faced the fourth-lowest run rate. Taylor is 50/50 on this rushing-attempts number in his last 10 road games.

But I don’t think JT’s role is the same as it’s been in the past, given the trade rumors swirling in Indy. Case in point, he had season lows across the board last week, and No. 2 RB Seth McGowan had a season-high 11 carries. The rookie’s rushing has increased in three straight games.

Taylor hit just 15 carries at Pittsburgh earlier this season (a road game against a tough run defense). And stud OG Quenton Nelson is no longer on the offensive line.

One of the highest-rated bets on the NFL First TD Scorer Report.

Chris Rodriguez is the running back for a heavy home favorite, and he is coming off season highs in carries. He averages 1.7 red zone touches per game, with a lot of short-yardage usage. C-Rod has a GL carry in every single game this season (10 RZ carries).

Jags TE Brenton Strange had 3 catches for 27 yards and 3 catches for 54 yards in the two games against the Colts in the 2025 season. But 4 of the 7 tight ends the Colts have faced have gone for 3.5 or more catches. Given how involved Strange has been the last 3 games: 7-95, 7-68 and 5-44, I like the over on his catches prop.

Last four weeks, Strange ranks

  • 5th in target share (22.3%)
  • 6th in targets per game
  • 3rd in catches per game (6.30)

Props

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Falcons ML

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), ATL is 2-1 ATS (67%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 7). Overall: across all road games, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-4 ATS and 4-3 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), TB is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026 (n=1, through Week 7). Overall: across all home games, 0-3-1 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 0-1 ATS and 1-0 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-4-1 ATS and 4-3 O/U.
  • ATL streaks through Week 7: 3-4 straight up (1-game win streak), 3-4 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 4-3 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
  • The Falcons are 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog since 2025.
  • TB streaks through Week 7: 2-5 straight up (1-game win streak), 2-4-1 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 4-3 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
  • Atlanta comes in off a 29-20 home win over San Francisco as a 2.5-point underdog, covering (Week 7). Tampa Bay comes in off a 43-13 road win at Carolina as a 3-point underdog, covering (Week 7).
  • Tampa Bay has the only positive point differential in the NFC South (+11, despite a 2-5 record); Atlanta is at -2 at 3-4. Atlanta has won three of its last five games (at Green Bay, at New Orleans and over San Francisco), going 3-2 ATS in that stretch.
  • Tampa Bay’s two wins this season were an 8.5-point underdog win at Dallas (24-16) and last week’s 43-13 win at Carolina (argubaly the 2 worst defenses in the NFL). The Buccaneers are 0-3-1 ATS at home in 2026 (0-9 ATS in last 9 home games).
  • Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Zac Robinson was the Falcons’ offensive coordinator last season, so the staffs are familiar with each other. On the flip side, Falcons HC Kevin Stefanski also used to coach Baker Mayfield (no love lost between these two guys) in Cleveland.
  • Divisional favorites are 7-22 ATS in 2026 through Week 7. Tampa Bay is a home divisional favorite in this game.
  • Games with closing totals from 42.5 to 45 are 17-14 toward the Over in 2026 through Week 7 (31 games), averaging 45.0 combined points against an average closing total of 43.6. BettingPros has this game’s total at about 43.5 (down from 45).
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): ATL 49.1 against 46.1 (4-3 O/U); TB 44.7 against 43.2 (4-3 O/U).
  • 5 of the Bucs’ last 6 divisional home games have gone over the total.
  • ATL is 3-3 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7); TB is 2-3-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7).

Injuries

Betting Preview

I like the Falcons here as a small road underdog, and I would take them to win the game outright. The Buccaneers are coming off a big win, but so are the Falcons. Beating the undefeated 49ers is more impressive than what Tampa Bay did to Carolina (as we have seen Carolina’s defense get destroyed twice in the last week).

Atlanta is traditionally an overrated home team, and here you get them on the road (the road team has won the last 6 Bucs’ games).

Tampa Bay won by running the ball against a Carolina defense that is terrible against the run. The Buccaneers threw only 11 times, so I still don’t know how their passing game is fixed. The Buccaneers' passing offense was struggling immensely even before Mayfield got hurt. He has covered just once in his last 13 starts, and the market has continued to dramatically overrate Tampa Bay since the second half of last season.

Atlanta’s run defense has been much better all season. Atlanta is a little banged up on defense, but I like Michael Penix as an underdog. The Falcons are 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog since 2025. Penix specifically is 6-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2025.

He has played really well, and as long as Drake London plays (he had the concussion scare but returned to the game), I have Penix, London and Bijan Robinson on my side, so give me the Falcons to win outright.

Per Next Gen Stats…Penix Jr. enters Week 8 with the fourth-best passer rating (109.1) and TD-INT ratio (9-1) in the NFL this season.

Penix has only faced Todd Bowles’ defense once (Week 1 2025). Atlanta lost by 3 points at home despite out-gaining Tampa Bay by nearly 100 yards and controlling time of possession (Penix threw for nearly 300 passing yards).

You want to bet ON Mayfield on the road as an underdog, not as a small home favorite.

Keep in mind that Tampa Bay’s +11 point differential, the only positive one in the NFC South, is helped a lot by the blowout of Carolina, and Atlanta’s -2 is skewed by the way the season started.

And given the total line movement, I do slightly lean over the total at 43.5.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Over 45.5

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), MIN is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026 (n=1, through Week 7). Overall: across all road games, 3-0 ATS and 0-3 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-0 ATS and 0-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-2 ATS and 1-5 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), DET is 1-2 ATS (33%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 7). Overall: across all home games, 1-2 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-3 ATS and 4-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-4 ATS and 5-1 O/U.
  • MIN streaks through Week 7: 6-0 straight up (6-game win streak), 4-2 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 1-5 toward the total (5-game Under streak).
  • DET streaks through Week 7: 4-2 straight up (2-game win streak), 2-4 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 5-1 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
  • Minnesota comes in off a 16-10 home win over Indianapolis as a 6.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 7; Week 6 bye). Detroit comes in off a 20-17 home win over Green Bay as a 3.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 7; Week 6 bye).
  • Minnesota is the NFL’s only undefeated team (6-0) and is 4-2 ATS, 3-0 ATS on the road. The Vikings have stayed Under the total in five straight games, but Detroit has gone Over in five of its six games (the Packers game last week was the Under).
  • Detroit’s offensive coordinator, Drew Petzing, was the Arizona Cardinals’ offensive coordinator when Kyler Murray was the quarterback there.
  • Divisional underdogs are 22-7 ATS in 2026 through Week 7 and have won outright 15 times in 29 games. Road divisional underdogs are 13-3 ATS (11-5 Over) and home divisional underdogs are 7-4 ATS (6-5 straight up). Minnesota is a road divisional underdog in this game.
  • Games with closing totals from 45.5 to 47.5 are 12-9 toward the Over in 2026 through Week 7 (21 games), averaging 51.7 combined points against an average closing total of 46.6. BettingPros has this game’s total at about 45.5
  • Road divisional dogs are 11-5 Over.
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): MIN 33.2 against 43.2 (1-5 O/U); DET 58.2 against 52.2 (5-1 O/U).
  • MIN is 4-2 ATS and 1-5 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 7); DET is 2-4 ATS and 5-1 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 7).

Injuries

Betting Preview

I don’t need to go into why I like Overs at Ford Field; it goes without saying. I will take the Over 45.5, which is a point lower than the 46.5 we had on the Week 8 early lookahead lies show. Start with Minnesota’s Unders. The Vikings’ lone Over this season was Week 1 against Green Bay, a 61-point game in which they allowed a season-high 22 points. Their Unders have come against the Bears, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Saints and Colts, and eight of their last nine games have gone Under during the 11-game win streak. The one time they played a good quarterback in a full contest without rain, the game went Over. Dating back to the 2025 season, the Vikings have faced Clayton Tune, Goff (the 23-10 Christmas game that was a disaster for Detroit), Jaxson Dart and Dak Prescott (a 60-point Over), and Jayden Daniels got hurt.

The Lions have been held under 25 points just once this season, last week, and scored at least 26 in every other game. It was the first time since Week 13 of the 2024 season that Detroit failed to score at least 24 at home. The history against Brian Flores points the same way: Detroit has failed to hit 24 against a Flores-led defense only once (that Christmas game), four of the last six meetings between these teams have reached 50 points, two of the last three in Detroit have been 50-plus, and the last meeting at Ford Field, in the 2025 season, finished with 51. Drew Petzing, now Detroit’s offensive coordinator, also faced Flores’ defense with Arizona in 2024, and that game in Minnesota went Over 44.5 with 45 points scored in total.

Jared Goff has 1,788 passing yards and 14 touchdowns with no interceptions through six games this season, and the only other players to reach those marks over any six-game span within a season are Aaron Rodgers in his 2021 MVP year and Tom Brady in 2010. Against the blitz he has 6 touchdowns, no interceptions and a 123.3 passer rating (third), and he is first in EPA per dropback when facing the blitz.

In six career games against a Flores Vikings defense, Jahmyr Gibbs has averaged 92.0 scrimmage yards with 9 total scrimmage touchdowns.

It is a strength-on-strength game. Minnesota has the NFL’s best scoring defense at 12.3 points allowed per game, and Detroit has the second-best scoring offense at 30.7. Flores has faced a top-2 scoring offense five times as Vikings defensive coordinator and is 3-2, but just 1-2 against the Lions in those matchups. The Lions under Dan Campbell have faced a top-3 scoring defense five times and are 1-4, with the lone win coming against Flores’ Vikings in Week 7 of the 2024 season.

The process: bet tight ends to score touchdowns against the Lions. It is the only thing that has worked for me this season on the BetingPros player prop show.  Vikings TE T.J.Hockenson scored last week, and this is a revenge game for the former Lion. Seth Woolcock also gave out Hock’s anytime TD as one of his best bets for Week 8. Squad ride? Squad ride.

I also like the Lions’ team total over 24.5 points as an alternative to the 3.5-point spread.

Props

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Props, Over 45.5

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), LV is 2-1 ATS (67%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 7). Overall: across all road games, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 4-2 ATS and 5-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 5-2 ATS and 5-2 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), NYJ is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 7). Overall: across all home games, 3-1 ATS and 1-3 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-3 ATS and 3-4 O/U.
  • LV streaks through Week 7: 3-4 straight up (4-game losing streak), 5-2 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 5-2 toward the total (5-game Over streak).
  • NYJ streaks through Week 7: 2-5 straight up (2-game losing streak), 4-3 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 3-4 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
  • Las Vegas comes in off a 35-21 home loss to the Rams as a 3.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 7). The Jets come in off a 28-25 home loss to Miami as a 3.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 7).
  • Las Vegas has lost four straight games (Weeks 4 through 7) but is 2-2 ATS in that stretch and 5-2 ATS for the season. The Raiders’ last five games have all gone Over the total.
  • The Raiders have beaten Miami, the Chargers and New Orleans and have lost to Kansas City, New England, Buffalo and the Rams. The Jets are 2-5 straight up.
  • The Jets are 3-1 ATS at home in 2026 and lost 28-25 at home to Miami last week as a 3.5-point favorite.
  • In games with a spread of 3 points or fewer, favorites are 24-18-3 ATS in 2026 through Week 7 (45 games).
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): LV 54.3 against 46.1 (5-2 O/U); NYJ 41.0 against 42.4 (3-4 O/U).
  • LV is 4-2 ATS and 5-1 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7); NYJ is 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7).

Injuries

Betting Preview

I think this is just a straight over play. Raiders’ defense has been exposed over the last month against better offenses, and the Jets have plenty of playmakers to take advantage.

Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith have combined for 26 passing TDs and 7 INTs this season. Both defenses rank bottom or outside the top-20 in EPA/pass attempt faced, while both offenses rank top-15 in passing efficiency.

Garrett Wilson has gone over 63.5 receiving yards in 3 of 7 games played this season. And over the last 4 games, 7 different wide receivers have gone for at least 57 yards against the Raiders. In the last four weeks, they have allowed 8.7 yards per attempt in man coverage (2nd most), including four touchdowns (7th-most) and zero interceptions (t-fewest).

Geno Smith has averaged 9.4 yards per attempt this season versus man coverage this year, second-most among qualified quarterbacks, along with six touchdowns and zero interceptions (t-fewest).

This is also a squeaky wheel game for Gang Green’s No. 1 WR, with Jets HC Aaron Glenn talking up Wilson getting more targets.

S/O @Coachspeakindex for these quotes from the Jets coaches regarding Wilson’s potential uptick in usage this week.

After seeing 3 targets last week, Glenn said, “We have to do everything we can to try to get him the ball. I'm gonna put that on myself, if he doesn’t get the targets that he needs - because, trust me, that's in the game plan, to make sure that he gets the ball. So, we have to do everything we can to try to make sure we do that.

Wilson is our top priority, to make sure we get him the ball.”

Frank Reich said the same thing, saying they are really trying to get Wilson the ball early and often, “we want to get it to him even more. We can create touches and scheme him open, and we are all the time, and that's why he's been productive, relatively speaking. I want it to be more; I want him to be the best in the NFL, because that's what we think of him.”

Also worth noting that the sharps are backing Garrett Wilson over 4.5 recs at -148 (based on $443 in prediction market liquidity). Underdog offers -148. This comes courtesy of the BettingPros Smart Money Tool.

Another bet courtesy of the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet: Geno Smith UNDER 30.5 pass attempts

Smith has gone under in 4 straight games and in 5 of 7 this season. He has thrown exactly 30 attempts in 3 straight games (under in both games where the Jets were favored). RB Breece Hall is also potentially returning. Las Vegas is allowing just 31.7 pass attempts per game. The Raiders face 28.9 rush attempts per game (the 8th-highest rush rate faced) and the 4th-highest rush rate faced over the last 4 weeks. Keep in mind that 5-star bets are up 31 units this season, and the sharps are also backing this Smith play.

Sharps are backing Geno Smith under 30.5 pass atts at +100 (based on $906 in prediction market liquidity) per the Smart Money Tool on BettingPros.

Props

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Bills -3, Over 54.5

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), BAL is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026 (n=1, through Week 7). Overall: across all road games, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-1 ATS and 2-0 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-4-1 ATS and 4-3 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), BUF is 2-1 ATS (67%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 7). Overall: across all home games, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 3-2 ATS and 4-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-2 ATS and 5-1 O/U.
  • BAL streaks through Week 7: 4-3 straight up (2-game losing streak), 2-4-1 against the spread (2-game non-cover streak), 4-3 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
  • BUF streaks through Week 7: 5-1 straight up (2-game win streak), 4-2 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 5-1 toward the total (3-game Over streak).
  • Baltimore comes in off a 35-13 home loss to Cincinnati as a 3-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 7). Buffalo comes in off a 33-30 road win at Las Vegas as a 5.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 6; Week 7 bye).
  • Days between games: BAL has 7 and BUF has 14 (coming off its Week 7 bye).
  • Neutral-site games are excluded from the home/road splits above: BAL vs. DAL in Week 3.
  • Lamar Jackson missed Weeks 5 through 7 with an ankle injury (expected to play in Week 8). With Tyler Huntley starting, Baltimore went 1-2 straight up and 1-2 ATS: a 30-23 overtime win at Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog, a 13-10 loss at Cleveland and a 35-13 loss to Cincinnati last week after leading 13-0 at the half.
  • Teams with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 14-5-1 ATS and 17-3 straight up in 2026 (Weeks 2-7, 20 games). Favorites in that spot are 12-2-1 ATS and 15-0 straight up; underdogs in that spot are 2-3 ATS and 2-3 straight up. Buffalo is coming off its bye, and Baltimore played/lost on Sunday, being outscored 35-0 in the second half.
  • Underdogs with at least 3 fewer days of rest than their opponent are 2-12-1 ATS and 0-15 straight up in 2026 (Weeks 2-7). Baltimore is an underdog with 7 fewer days of rest in this game.
  • Games with a closing total of 52 or higher are 6-2 toward the Over in 2026 through Week 7 (8 games), averaging 58.0 combined points against an average closing total of 53.8; at 50 or higher, the Over is 10-6. This game’s total is 53.5 to 54.5. Buffalo’s games have gone Over in 5 of 6.
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): BAL 48.0 against 45.9 (4-3 O/U); BUF 61.3 against 51.1 (5-1 O/U).
  • BAL is 1-4-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7); BUF is 4-2 ATS and 5-1 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6).

Injuries

 

Betting Preview

Everything in this game hinges on how well Lamar Jackson plays after his three-game absence.

My view of these elite quarterback matchups is that you bet blindly on the underdogs…but the optics of Buffalo at home after a bye week have me leaning strongly in that direction. The home team has covered in 8 of the last 9 games between the Bills/Ravens. 3 of the last 4 matchups between these teams have been settled by 3 or fewer points.

I also like the Over (how can you not). The total is the highest of the week, but we have seen real classics between these two teams, very high-scoring when Lamar is on the field, and neither defense has particularly played that well this season.

I won’t push back at anyone to fire away on the Over and cheer for a back-and-forth game. Each of the last 7 Ravens’ road underdog games has gone OVER the total. I think my official play will be on the game going over 54.5 points. The last two games between these teams have totaled 81 and 52 points.

Seth Woolcock gave out Bills -2.5 as his best sides/totals play for Week 8, and I agreed with backing the home team. Check out the full episode for more of my thoughts on BUF-BAL:

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Over 43.5

Trends

  • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), NE has not yet been in that role in 2026 (n=0, through Week 7). Overall: across all road games, 1-2-1 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-3-1 ATS and 4-3 O/U.
  • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), MIA is 0-1-1 ATS (0%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 7). Overall: across all home games, 0-1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 2-3-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-3-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U.
  • NE streaks through Week 7: 4-3 straight up (1-game losing streak), 3-3-1 against the spread (2-game non-cover streak), 4-3 toward the total (4-game Over streak).
  • MIA streaks through Week 7: 1-5 straight up (1-game win streak), 2-3-1 against the spread (2-game cover streak), 3-3 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
  • New England comes in off a 30-24 road loss at Chicago as a 3-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 7; Thursday night). Miami comes in off a 28-25 road win at the Jets as a 3.5-point underdog, covering (Week 7; Week 6 bye).
  • Days between games: NE has 10 and MIA has 7.
  • New England beat Miami 38-10 in Week 18 of the 2025 season as a 9.5-point favorite, and the game went Over 46.5 total.
  • New England played last Thursday night, which gives it 3 more days of rest than Miami. Teams with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 14-5-1 ATS and 17-3 straight up in 2026 (Weeks 2-7, 20 games). Favorites in that spot are 12-2-1 ATS and 15-0 straight up; underdogs in that spot are 2-3 ATS and 2-3 straight up.
  • Underdogs with at least 3 fewer days of rest than their opponent are 2-12-1 ATS and 0-15 straight up in 2026 (Weeks 2-7). Miami is an underdog with 3 fewer days of rest in this game.
  • Home divisional underdogs are 7-4 ATS in 2026 through Week 7 (6-5 straight up), which means road favorites in divisional games are 4-7 ATS. Miami is a home divisional underdog in this game. Divisional favorites are 7-22 ATS in 2026 through Week 7.
  • New England has gone Over the total in four straight games (Weeks 4 through 7).
  • Miami’s 28-25 win at the Jets last week was its first of the season, coming right after its Week 6 bye.
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): NE 43.3 against 45.8 (4-3 O/U); MIA 42.5 against 42.4 (3-3 O/U).
  • NE is 3-3 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7); MIA is 2-3-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 7).

Injuries

Betting Preview

I don’t like laying that many points with the Patriots on the road, even after the mini bye from playing on Thursday. It is a divisional matchup, and anyone who has listened to the Best Bets show, or the lookahead show over the first part of the season, knows I’m really into the home divisional underdogs. Miami is one, and you are a touchdown.

The Dolphins are also coming off their best performance of the year, and I think it matters when a team looks significantly better after the bye. You go into the week off, make personnel and scheme changes, and when you see them work, I think you have to consider that the Dolphins of Weeks 1 through 6 might not be the same team we should be looking at for Weeks 8, 9, and on, etc.
That doesn’t mean the Dolphins are a juggernaut, because they beat the Jets. But can they stay within striking distance of a divisional opponent? Potentially.

The number has moved since Monday: the consensus went down from 8.5 to 7, with books now settling at New England -7, which feels like no-man’s land to me.

Both teams are riding over streaks, so I think that might be my best lean in this contest. 10 of the last 11 Dolphins’ divisional games have gone OVER the total. The last 3 games between these 2 teams (with Drake Maye starting for NE) have all gone OVER the total (49, 60, and 48-point totals).

Only one Pats game has finished under 43.5 in their last five…with Miami exceeding 50 points during their two-game over streak.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Under 40.5, Broncos ML

Trends

  • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), KC is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 7). Overall: across all road games, 1-2 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 3-2 ATS and 2-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-3 ATS and 2-4 O/U.
  • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), DEN is 2-0 ATS (100%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 7). Overall: across all home games, 3-0 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 2-2 ATS and 1-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 5-2 ATS and 2-5 O/U.
  • KC streaks through Week 7: 5-1 straight up (1-game losing streak), 3-3 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 2-4 toward the total (2-game Under streak).
  • DEN streaks through Week 7: 5-2 straight up (3-game win streak), 5-2 against the spread (3-game cover streak), 2-5 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
  • Kansas City comes in off a 20-3 road loss at Seattle as a 3-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 7; Sunday night; Week 5 bye). Denver comes in off a 30-16 road win at Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite, covering (Week 7).
  • Kansas City won the Week 1 meeting 31-10 in Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite, and the game went under a 43.5 total.
  • Denver is 5-2 ATS, 3-0 ATS at home, and has won and covered three straight. Its wins include Jacksonville, the Rams, the Chargers, Seattle and Arizona (30-16 last week).
  • Last week’s loss at Seattle was Kansas City’s first of the season, and its 3 points were the fewest scored by any team in Week 7.
  • Home divisional underdogs are 7-4 ATS in 2026 through Week 7 (6-5 straight up), and divisional favorites are 7-22 ATS. Denver is a home divisional underdog in this game.
  • In games with a spread of 3 points or fewer, favorites are 24-18-3 ATS in 2026 through Week 7 (45 games).
  • Games with a closing total of 42 or lower are 10-18 toward the Over (Under 64%, 28 games) in 2026 through Week 7, averaging 38.0 combined points against an average closing total of 40.1. BettingPros has this game’s total at 40.5.
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): KC 41.0 against 44.6 (2-4 O/U); DEN 40.7 against 43.9 (2-5 O/U).
  • KC is 3-3 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 7); DEN is 5-1 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7).

Injuries

Betting Preview

I am firmly on the Under at 40.5 and on the Broncos moneyline at +108. I like Denver here, and the value is on Denver catching a point and a half at home.

As a home divisional dog, you are trying to get the best number you can with them, and they are alive to win this game outright. They could beat the Chiefs. I liked them in back in Week 1 too, but Patrick Mahomes came out guns blazing and ripped this defense apart in a 31-10 Kansas City win.

But in the rematch, I think Denver has a couple more counters; the Chiefs’ offense still lacks pass catchers, and we shall see how much Rashee Rice can contribute in his first game back. Broncos CB Pat Surtain is back practicing in full.

The total is where my best bet comes into play. The history is one-sided: each of the last 7 games between these two teams has gone Under, Denver has won 17 of its last 19 home games, and as a home underdog since the 2025 season Denver is 4-0 ATS and 3-1 straight up with a 1-3 O/U record.

Kansas City is just 5-10 O/U as a road favorite and 6-9 ATS in that role (2-7 ATS since last year). Both teams are top-10 in passing defense by EPA per attempt faced. The Chiefs have the second-best red zone defense and the Broncos rank seventh, and they sit at 17.2 and 20.1 points allowed per game.

Bo Nix is a big part of why I expect this to be low-scoring (shockingly).

He has a league-low 41.3% completion percentage against man coverage this season, the lowest by a quarterback in a season since at least 2018. Part of that is how far he pushes the ball: he averages a league-high 11.7 air yards per attempt against man, compared to 5.1 against zone, the second-fewest. That 6.6-yard difference is the largest among qualified quarterbacks. The Chiefs play man on 31.5% of dropbacks (seventh-highest), and they played man on 30.3% of Nix’s dropbacks in Week 1, when he went 3-of-8 for 23 yards and an interception against it.

I will say that if the Chiefs are without multiple starting CBs…Nix’s odds of playing well increase dramatically. Hurts the UNDER, but supports a Broncos’ upset.

Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles  

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Commanders -5.5

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), PHI has not yet been in that role in 2026 (n=0, through Week 7). Overall: across all road games, 0-2 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-3 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 1-6 ATS and 4-3 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), WAS is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026 (n=1, through Week 7). Overall: across all home games, 1-1 ATS and 2-0 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 0-1 ATS and 1-0 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-3 ATS and 4-2 O/U.
  • PHI streaks through Week 7: 2-5 straight up (5-game losing streak), 1-6 against the spread (2-game non-cover streak), 4-3 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
  • WAS streaks through Week 7: 1-4-1 straight up (1-game losing streak), 3-3 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 4-2 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
  • Philadelphia comes in off a 38-21 home loss to Dallas as a 4.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 7; Monday night). Washington comes in off a 23-17 road loss at San Francisco as a 7.5-point underdog, covering (Week 6; Monday night; Week 7 bye).
  • Days between games: PHI has 6 and WAS has 13 (coming off its Week 7 bye).
  • Neutral-site games are excluded from the home/road splits above: PHI vs. JAX in Week 5; WAS vs. IND in Week 4.
  • Philadelphia beat Washington 24-22 in Week 1 as a 5.5-point favorite (failing to cover, and the game went Over a 44.5 total). In Week 18 of the 2025 season, Washington won 24-17 as a 7.5-point road underdog (Under 42.5).
  • Philadelphia lost 38-21 to Dallas on Monday night with Tanner McKee starting for Jalen Hurts, the Eagles’ fifth straight loss. The Eagles are 1-6 ATS and 0-4 ATS at home, and they play this Sunday-night game six days after Monday night’s game.
  • Teams with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 14-5-1 ATS and 17-3 straight up in 2026 (Weeks 2-7, 20 games). Favorites in that spot are 12-2-1 ATS and 15-0 straight up; underdogs in that spot are 2-3 ATS and 2-3 straight up. Washington is coming off its bye, with 7 more days of rest than Philadelphia.
  • Underdogs with at least 3 fewer days of rest than their opponent are 2-12-1 ATS and 0-15 straight up in 2026 (Weeks 2-7). Philadelphia is an underdog with 7 fewer days of rest in this game.
  • Divisional underdogs are 22-7 ATS in 2026 through Week 7 and have won outright 15 times in 29 games. Road divisional underdogs are 13-3 ATS and 11-5 toward the Over. Philadelphia is a road divisional underdog in this game.
  • Underdogs are 14-7-1 ATS across all 22 prime-time games in 2026 through Week 7 (Sunday-night underdogs 5-2, Monday-night underdogs 4-3), though prime-time favorites covered all three Week 7 games.
  • Games with a closing total of 42 or lower are 10-18 toward the Over (Under 64%, 28 games) in 2026 through Week 7, averaging 38.0 combined points against an average closing total of 40.1. BettingPros has this game’s total at about 40.
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): PHI 43.1 against 42.2 (4-3 O/U); WAS 50.7 against 45.8 (4-2 O/U).
  • PHI is 1-5 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7); WAS is 3-3 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6).
  • Prime-time record in 2026 (through Week 7): PHI is 0-2 ATS and 1-1 O/U in 2 prime-time games; WAS is 1-0 ATS and 0-1 O/U in 1 prime-time game.

Injuries

Betting Preview

I am laying the 5.5-6 points with the Commanders. The rest edge is the strongest single stat on the slate: Washington is coming off its bye and Philadelphia is playing on a short week after Monday night. The Eagles have been getting screwed by rest disadvantages all year, and I think it is part of why they have struggled so much health-wise. They played Carolina coming off their bye and lost by 11. That compounds with the injuries on their own roster.

Saquon Barkley will play but he may be on a pitch count.

Having a healthy Jayden Daniels and laying less than a touchdown feels like a decent bet. Three and a half was not enough credit when the line came out, and it has grown to 5.5, which is still short of a full touchdown. Throw out the rest of the roster: both teams are underwhelming across the board, on offense, offensive line, defense, and defensive line, but a healthy Daniels is the player I believe in most.

The Eagles are also 0-7 ATS in their last 7 division road games as underdogs.

One thing in the back of my mind is that these games tend to be slightly higher scoring. Still, 11 of the Eagles’ last 17 games (64%) have gone Under (3 of the overs have been in PHI-WAS matchups).

Bet the overs for Antonio Williams. The rookie WR will have an expanded role in the offense without Terry McLaurin. He is coming off 3 catches for 50 yards and led the Commanders in routes run in Week 6. And in Week 4 without TMC, he again led the team in routes run (and went over this number, but his 87-yard TD was called back on a penalty). Back in Week 1 versus these same Eagles…Williams finished as the fantasy WR14 with 4 catches for 64 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles are allowing the second-most yards to wide receivers this season (and the second-most fantasy points per game).

Per Next Gen Stats: Jayden Daniels has targeted receivers aligned in the slot on 35.3% of his pass attempts this season, the second-highest rate among qualified passers, and receivers lined up out wide on 30.2%, the lowest rate. Stefon Diggs has run 61.5% of his routes from the slot this season, catching 12 of 19 slot targets for 126 yards and two touchdowns, while Williams has nearly matched him with 10 receptions on 13 targets for 111 yards and a score, including three receptions for 50 yards and a score in Week 1 against Philadelphia. The Eagles allowed two touchdowns to receivers aligned in the slot in both Week 1 against Washington and Week 7 against Dallas and allowed the most receiving yards to the slot (245) by any defense this season in Week 5 against Jacksonville.

As for TDs….I originally liked Rachaad White. He was listed as a 5-star bet on him to score a touchdown at plus money. Without Jacory Croskey-Merritt (placed on IR), White should lead the Commanders’ backfield. That being said…we can go deeper here. Jeremy McNichols. He has only played in one game this season for the Commanders but had three red-zone carries and a goal-line carry versus the 49ers back in Week 6. He also scored a 31-yard TD, but it came back on a penalty. If he gets red-zone looks for another week, we could see him find the end zone at north of 4-1 odds.

PHI allows the 10th-most rushing TDs (8 this season), including one rushing TD to Bill back in Week 1.

Props

Week 8 Remaining Matchups

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Cardinals +7

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), ARI is 3-0 ATS (100%) and 1-2 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 7). Overall: across all road games, 3-1 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-4 ATS and 4-3 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), DAL is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 7). Overall: across all home games, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-3-1 ATS and 4-3 O/U.
  • ARI streaks through Week 7: 2-5 straight up (1-game losing streak), 3-4 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 4-3 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
  • Four of the last five Cardinals games have gone over the total
  • DAL streaks through Week 7: 3-4 straight up (1-game win streak), 3-3-1 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 4-3 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
  • Dallas has failed to cover the spread in four of their last games following a win.
  • Arizona comes in off a 30-16 home loss to Denver as a 4.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 7). Dallas comes in off a 38-21 road win at Philadelphia as a 4.5-point favorite, covering (Week 7; Monday night).
  • Days between games: ARI has 7 and DAL has 6.
  • Neutral-site games are excluded from the home/road splits above: DAL vs. BAL in Week 3.
  • Dallas’s Monday-night win over Philadelphia went Over a 43.5 total (59 points). The Cowboys have one fewer day of rest than Arizona (6 days to 7).
  • Arizona is 3-0 ATS as a road underdog in 2026, and each of those covers came with at least 8.5 points (+9.5 at the Chargers, +8.5 at San Francisco and +12.5 at the Rams).
  • Games with a closing total of 52 or higher are 6-2 toward the Over in 2026 through Week 7 (8 games), averaging 58.0 combined points against an average closing total of 53.8; at 50 or higher the Over is 10-6. This game’s total is 54.5.
  • Underdogs getting 7 to 9.5 points are 12-5-2 ATS in 2026 through Week 7 (19 games), though only 6-13 straight up. Best available prices have Arizona at +7.5.
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): ARI 50.0 against 47.1 (4-3 O/U); DAL 52.7 against 49.2 (4-3 O/U).
  • ARI is 2-4 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7); DAL is 3-2-1 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7).

Betting Preview

On the early lookahead lines show I liked the under. And with the total up to 54.5, you’d think it would be a slam-dunk for me. At the time, it felt too high for a Cardinals-Cowboys game: that number suggests a lot of confidence that both of these teams will be competent on both sides of the ball, and I am not sure you can count on that.

But after looking more at the trends, I think you just take Arizona with the points in a high-scoring affair. Michael Wilson and Jeremiyah Love are expected to play (although the Cardinals’ OL is in shambles).

Dallas is the home favorite coming off a short week, but Arizona has covered every game it has played as a road underdog this season. They are always live for back-door cover (7-4 ATS since 2025 as a road underdog).

Still nowhere near a best bet.

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Over 45.5

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), LAC is 0-2-1 ATS (0%) and 1-2 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 7). Overall: across all road games, 0-2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 0-3-1 ATS and 1-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 0-5-1 ATS and 1-5 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), LAR is 1-2 ATS (33%) and 1-2 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 7). Overall: across all home games, 1-2 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 3-4 ATS and 4-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-4 ATS and 4-3 O/U.
  • LAC streaks through Week 7: 0-6 straight up (6-game losing streak), 0-5-1 against the spread (5-game non-cover streak), 1-5 toward the total (2-game Under streak).
  • LAR streaks through Week 7: 3-4 straight up (1-game win streak), 3-4 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 4-3 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
  • The Chargers come in off a 22-6 road loss at Kansas City as a 7.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 6; Week 7 bye). The Rams come in off a 35-21 road win at Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite, covering (Week 7).
  • Days between games: LAC has 14 (coming off its Week 7 bye) and LAR has 7.
  • Neutral-site games are excluded from the home/road splits above: LAR vs. SF in Week 1.
  • The Chargers are the NFL’s only winless team (0-6) and have failed to cover five straight (0-5-1 ATS). Their offense is averaging 15.0 points per game. They are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games (8 of their last 9 have also gone UNDER).
  • Chargers games are 1-5 toward the Over in 2026, averaging 40.2 combined points against an average closing total of 44.5.
  • The Chargers are coming off a bye. Teams with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 14-5-1 ATS and 17-3 straight up in 2026 (Weeks 2-7, 20 games). Underdogs in that spot are 2-3 ATS and 2-3 straight up.
  • Underdogs getting 7 to 9.5 points are 12-5-2 ATS in 2026 through Week 7 (19 games), though only 6-13 straight up.
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): LAC 40.2 against 44.5 (1-5 O/U); LAR 47.0 against 48.2 (4-3 O/U).
  • LAC is 0-5-1 ATS and 1-5 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6); LAR is 3-3 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7).

Injuries

Betting Preview

I am willing to take a shot on the Over. The Rams could technically cover this number by themselves if they are firing on all cylinders, and the game is in a dome with no home-field advantage to speak of.

At 45.5, the total is not that low compared to the rest of the board. The Rams’ defense is still injured: Myles Garrett is not back, and Trent McDuffie missed a second game last week.

And I am crossing my fingers that the Chargers did something over the bye to get this offense going in some way. They are going to be healthier, getting Joe Alt back with some of their receivers, and they have nowhere to go but up after their abysmal start to the year.

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Bears +3

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), CHI has not yet been in that role in 2026 (n=0, through Week 7). Overall: across all road games, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-0 ATS and 0-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 5-2 ATS and 3-4 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), SEA is 1-1-2 ATS (50%) and 2-2 O/U in 2026 (n=4, through Week 7). Overall: across all home games, 1-1-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-3-2 ATS and 3-4 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-3-2 ATS and 3-4 O/U.
  • Seattle has won 10 if their last 11 home games.
  • CHI streaks through Week 7: 5-2 straight up (2-game win streak), 5-2 against the spread (2-game cover streak), 3-4 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
  • SEA streaks through Week 7: 4-3 straight up (1-game win streak), 2-3-2 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 3-4 toward the total (2-game Under streak).
  • Chicago comes in off a 30-24 home win over New England as a 3-point favorite, covering (Week 7; Thursday night). Seattle comes in off a 20-3 home win over Kansas City as a 3-point favorite, covering (Week 7; Sunday night).
  • Days between games: CHI has 11 and SEA has 8.
  • Chicago played last Thursday night and Seattle played Sunday night, so Chicago has 3 more days of rest. Underdogs with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 2-3 ATS and 2-3 straight up in 2026 (Weeks 2-7).
  • Chicago has won and covered its last two games and is 5-2 ATS in 2026. Seattle is 2-3-2 ATS, with two pushes at -3 and -7.
  • Mike Macdonald’s defenses have faced Ben Johnson’s offenses before: Johnson’s Lions scored 42 on Macdonald’s Seahawks in Week 4 of the 2024 season (42-29).
  • Underdogs are 14-7-1 ATS across all 22 prime-time games in 2026 through Week 7 (Sunday-night underdogs 5-2, Monday-night underdogs 4-3), though prime-time favorites covered all three Week 7 games.
  • Games with closing totals from 45.5 to 47.5 are 12-9 toward the Over in 2026 through Week 7 (21 games), averaging 51.7 combined points against an average closing total of 46.6. BettingPros has this game’s total at 46.5.
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): CHI 46.1 against 47.6 (3-4 O/U); SEA 41.9 against 42.6 (3-4 O/U).
  • CHI is 4-2 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7); SEA is 2-3-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through 2026 Week 7).
  • Prime-time record in 2026 (through Week 7): CHI is 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U in 2 prime-time games; SEA is 1-1-1 ATS and 0-3 O/U in 3 prime-time games.

Injuries

Betting Preview

I don’t have a strong feeling/read on this one. I wish I had the answers and could tell you Ben Johnson is going to do X, Y and Z to exploit the Mike Macdonald defense, but I don’t know that it’s in the range of outcomes. What I do find interesting is the history of those two play-callers: Johnson’s Lions put up 42 on Macdonald’s Seahawks in 2024, and Macdonald’s Ravens defense completely destroyed Jared Goff and the Lions in 2023. We have seen it go both ways.

I lean a little toward liking the Bears’ offense. They have extra time to prepare because they played on Thursday, so Ben Johnson has been in the lab since the Patriots game ended, studying the Seahawks’ defense, and he had to have been watching the Chiefs-Seahawks game very closely.

The Bears can attack defenses in so many ways. They run the football effectively, they use Caleb Williams in the run game, and they have so many weapons from the pass-catching standpoint that it is hard to take one person away. Against Kansas City, it was very clear that Seattle stopped Kenneth Walker and the run game and wasn’t going to get beat by Xavier Worthy or Travis Kelce, and that worked because the Chiefs couldn’t get into the red zone. That’s harder against Chicago.

And given how turnover-prone Sam Darnold has been…I think I trust the Bears just a tad more (especially with the 3 points).

And Per Next Gen Stats: The Seahawks’ defense has blitzed on 20.5% of dropbacks this season, the second-lowest rate in the NFL, and have generated a 39.9% pressure rate when sending four or fewer pass rushers (2nd-highest). On those pass rushes, they have generated a 16.2% quick pressure rate (under 2.5 seconds, 3rd-highest), with opposing passers scrambling to run on 8.6% of dropbacks (3rd-highest). When facing four or fewer pass rushers, Caleb Williams has recorded a 58.8% passing success rate (highest in the NFL) and has scrambled to run on 11.8% of dropbacks (4th-highest).

So maybe I like the Bears a little bit, catching the points. It is a game I am very interested in seeing, but I would not bet it heavy.

I’m also fascinated by the matchup of each team’s newly acquired trench player. Seattle traded for OG Quenton Nelson, and the Bears traded for DT Jeffery Simmons. These guys have played their entire careers battling in the AFC South (as recently as Week 4 when IND played TEN), so this will hardly be the first time they will butt heads (literally).

We should also see a revamped Seattle backfield with Jadarian Price activated off IR, and Zach Charbonnet practicing in full (Thursday).

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