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NFL Betting Primer, Picks & Predictions: Week 7 (2026)

Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Oct 24, 2026
Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Oct 24, 2026
Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans

Welcome back to yet another edition of Andrew Erickson’s NFL Betting Primer powered by BettingPros.

We’re gearing up for a fun Week 7 slate with 14 games to break down.

My Week 6 betting card finished 7-5 (5-2 on sides/totals and 2-3 on player props).

The player props were absolute BUNs (including an all-time worst over bet on Cam Skattebo’s rushing yards), but it was nice to sweep the Week 6 Best Bets show with Seth Woolcock (5-0 on sides/totals).

I should have just stuck with my picks from the show… as all the additional plays did me no good. Don’t tinker!

Record on official plays this season: 39-27 overall (59%).

The Panthers laying 3.5 against the Eagles (25-14), the Under in Chargers-Chiefs (28 total points), the Browns +5.5 (a 13-10 outright win over the Ravens), the Steelers laying 2.5 in overtime at Tampa Bay and the Over in Saints-Giants (61 points) all cashed.

The one that stung on the game side was the Texans-Jaguars Under 42.5, as that game finished with 65 points on a last-second Texans field goal.

On player props, only Jalen Coker's Over on receiving yards (2-5) and the Under on Jayden Daniels’ rushing yards cashed (Fred Warner is a dawg).

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Find the best +EV NFL bets at BettingPros based on where the sharpest sportsbooks think the expected value is.

Three things stand out in the league-wide trends heading into Week 7.

First, the prime-time underdog honeymoon is over. Underdogs had covered 10 straight prime-time games, and all 10 won outright, before the Packers beat the Cowboys on Sunday night. Washington covered +7.5 against the 49ers on Monday night, so prime-time underdogs are still 14-5-1 against the spread (ATS), and prime-time favorites are 5-14-1.

Thursday night is where it’s been most extreme: Thursday underdogs are 5-2 ATS, and Thursday favorites are 2-5, including this week's Thursday game (Patriots at Bears), with Chicago as a field-goal favorite. The Bears eventually won and covered (the game total went Over).

Chiefs-Seahawks on Sunday night and Cowboys-Eagles on Monday night are the other two prime-time tests. Spoiler… I like both prime-time underdogs.

Second, totals of 42 points or fewer keep hitting the Under. They went 4-1 Under in Week 6 and are now 17-8 for the season (68%). Totals of 50+ have done the opposite, going 10-5 Over for the season, though that bucket went just 2-3 last week (1-0 so far in Week 7).

Week 7 has several totals in that range on the early numbers, including Bengals-Ravens, 49ers-Falcons, Packers-Lions and Patriots-Bears (which went over), so watch the closing numbers.

Third, home underdogs gave back a little. They went 3-4 ATS in Week 6 and sit at 18-16-2 ATS for the season (53% of decided bets), with 14 outright wins in 36 games (39%).

Divisional home underdogs are still the sweet spot at 7-2 ATS (6-3 straight up) after the Browns covered and won.

Based on the early lines, the Week 7 slate has home underdogs in the Saints (vs. the Steelers, although not a true home game, as it’s in Paris, France), Titans (vs. the Browns), Falcons (vs. the 49ers), Cardinals (vs. the Broncos) and, on the early numbers, the Raiders (vs. the Rams) and Eagles (vs. the Cowboys, in-division).

Eagles-Cowboys is the only divisional game of the group (more to come). The Browns’ process last week was that home divisional underdogs tend to be undervalued by the market, and I’m applying the same logic to the Eagles at home, in-division and getting more than a field goal.

Also, the schedule has been a bigger factor than the market has priced.

Teams with at least three more days of rest than their opponent are 10-3-1 ATS and 11-3 straight up (SU) so far in 2026, and the favorites in that spot are 9-0-1 ATS (10-0 straight up). The Vikings, Dolphins, Bengals and Lions are all coming off their Week 6 byes and face opponents who played last Sunday, and the Broncos and Seahawks each have three extra days of rest after playing the Thursday game.

Divisional games have also been dominated by the underdog regardless of home/road status: 19-5 ATS overall, with road divisional underdogs 10-3 ATS and 9-4 toward the Over, and home divisional underdogs 7-2 ATS (6-3 straight up) in games that have gone Under six times in nine games.

Week 7 has five divisional games: Buccaneers-Panthers, Bengals-Ravens, Dolphins-Jets, Packers-Lions and Cowboys-Eagles.

A reminder: Buffalo, Jacksonville, Los Angeles Chargers and Washington are on bye, so we have 14 games this week, and Patriots-Bears on Thursday night has its own stand-alone primer (not a terrible night, but A.J. Brown’s performance definitely leaves a lot to be desired). But if he catches that long pass (defensive pass interference wasn’t called), he adds 50 receiving yards to his final 3-48 stat line, and nobody complains.

Steelers-Saints kicks off at 9:30 AM ET in Paris.

For my thoughts on the Week 7 slate, check out the weekly lookahead lines show I do every week with Ryan Wormley (Monday release following every Sunday slate).

Let's get back to business. All remaining Week 7 games are featured below (including the Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football matchups).

League-Wide Trends

Week 6 Recap

  • Favorites went 6-8 ATS; underdogs went 8-6 ATS (14 games). Underdogs won 5 of the 14 outright.
  • Home teams went 5-8 ATS; road teams went 8-5 ATS (one neutral-site game excluded).
  • Home underdogs went 3-4 ATS (Broncos, Browns and Raiders covered; Eagles, Buccaneers, Giants and Falcons did not).
  • Overall O/U: 7-7.

Full Season 2026 (through Week 6)

  • Favorites went 40-48-5 ATS; underdogs went 48-40-5 ATS (93 games). Underdogs have won 34 of 93 games outright (37%; one game was a tie).
  • Home teams went 41-43-4 ATS; road teams went 43-41-4 ATS (excluding five neutral-site games).
  • Overall O/U: 46-47.
  • Closing totals of 42 or fewer are 17-8 to the Under (68%, 25 games), including 4-1 to the Under in Week 6; closing totals above 42 are 38-30 to the Over (68 games), including 6-3 to the Over in Week 6.
  • Closing totals of 50+ are 9-5 to the Over (14 games), but went 2-3 in Week 6.

Home Underdogs (through Week 6)

  • Home underdogs are 18-16-2 ATS (36 games; neutral-site games excluded), which is 52.9% of decided bets.
  • Home underdogs have won 14 of those 36 games outright (39%), and the O/U is 18-18.
  • Divisional home underdogs are 7-2 ATS (6-3 straight up); all divisional underdogs are 19-5 ATS (24 games, 13 outright wins).

Prime-Time Highlights (Wednesday Opener/TNF/SNF/MNF, through Week 6)

  • Favorites went 4-14-1 ATS; underdogs went 14-4-1 ATS (19 games).
  • Home teams went 10-7-1 ATS; road teams went 7-10-1 ATS (1 neutral-site game excluded).
  • Overall O/U: 9-10.
  • Streaks: prime-time underdogs covered 10 straight games (and won all 10 outright, from Falcons-Packers in Week 3 through Seahawks-Broncos in Week 6) before Dallas failed to cover at Green Bay on Sunday night. Washington covered Monday, so the current underdog cover streak is one game. The Under has hit in the last three prime-time games.
  • Thursday Night Football only (six games, including the Melbourne opener): underdogs are 5-1 ATS and favorites 1-5; home teams are 3-2 ATS and road teams 2-3; the O/U is 3-3.

Totals by Range (through Week 6)

  • Closing totals of 40 points or fewer: 3-7 Over (10 games; the average closing total was 38.9 and the average game finished with 34.9 points).
  • Closing totals of 40.5 to 42: 5-10 Over (15 games; 41.0 average total, 38.9 average points). Combined, totals of 42 points or fewer are 8-17 (68% Under, 25 games; 40.2 average total, 37.3 average points).
  • Closing totals of 42.5 to 45: 13-12 Over (25 games; 43.7 average total, 45.5 average points). Underdogs are 15-7-3 ATS in this range and favorites 7-15-3.
  • Closing totals of 45.5 to 47.5: 11-9 Over (20 games; 46.6 average total, 51.9 average points).
  • Closing totals of 48 to 49.5: 5-4 Over (nine games; 48.6 average total, 47.9 average points). Totals of 48+ are 14-9 Over (23 games).
  • Closing totals of 50 to 51.5: 3-4 Over (seven games; 51.1 average total, 46.9 average points). Totals of 52+ are 6-1 Over (7 games; 53.6 average total, 61.0 average points), which is what drives the 9-5 Over mark for totals of 50+.
  • Prime-time: games with totals of 48+ are 3-4 Over (seven games), so the high-total Over trend has not carried into prime time; prime-time games with totals of 45 points or fewer are also 3-4 toward the Over.
  • Scoring by week (average combined points/average closing total):
    • Week 1: 49.4/45.2
    • Week 2: 40.4/45.5
    • Week 3: 47.2/45.0
    • Week 4: 47.8/45.1
    • Week 5: 48.4/44.5
    • Week 6: 43.6/45.6.
    • The season average is 46.2 points per game against an average closing total of 45.2, and the Over is 46-47 (Week-by-week O/U: 8-8, 6-10, 8-8, 9-7, 8-7, 7-7).

Divisional Games (through Week 6)

  • Divisional underdogs are 19-5 ATS (79%, 24 games) and 13-11 straight up; divisional favorites are 5-19 ATS. In non-divisional games, underdogs are 29-35-5 ATS (69 games) and 21-48 straight up.
  • Home divisional underdogs are 7-2 ATS and 6-3 straight up (9 games), and those games are 3-6 toward the Over (42.1 average points against a 42.9 average total).
  • Road divisional underdogs are 10-3 ATS but only 5-8 straight up (13 games), and those games are 9-4 toward the Over (49.8 average points against a 45.4 average total).
  • Divisional home teams are 10-12 ATS and road teams 12-10 ATS. Divisional games overall are 13-11 Over (46.9 average points against a 44.5 average total).
  • Non-divisional underdogs are 11-14-2 ATS at home (27 games) and 17-20-2 ATS on the road (39 games), so the underdog edge in 2026 has been almost entirely a divisional one.

Spread Size and Roles (through Week 6)

  • Games with a spread of 3 points or fewer (38 games): underdogs are 16-19-3 ATS and 16-22 straight up.
  • Spreads of 3.5 to 6.5 (31 games): underdogs are 17-14 ATS and 11-20 straight up.
  • Spreads of 7 to 9.5 (19 games): underdogs are 12-5-2 ATS and 6-13 straight up. Spreads of 10+ points (five games): underdogs are 3-2 ATS and 1-4 straight up (Kansas City and San Francisco covered as double-digit favorites; Baltimore, Minnesota and the Rams did not). All spreads of 7+ points combined: underdogs are 15-7-2 ATS (68% of decided bets) and 7-17 straight up.
  • By role: home favorites are 23-27-2 ATS and road favorites 16-18-2; home underdogs are 18-16-2 ATS and road underdogs 27-23-2 (52 games).
  • Prime-time vs. everything else: prime-time underdogs are 14-4-1 ATS and 12-7 straight up (19 games), while underdogs in all other games are 34-36-4 ATS and 22-52 straight up (74 games). The prime-time O/U is 9-10 and every other game is 37-37.

Rest and Schedule Spots (through Week 6)

  • Teams with at least three more days between games than their opponent are 10-3-1 ATS and 11-3 straight up (14 team-games). Favorites in that spot are 9-0-1 ATS and 10-0 straight up (10 games); underdogs are 1-3 ATS and 1-3 straight up (four games).
  • The flip side: underdogs facing an opponent with at least three extra days of rest are 0-9-1 ATS and 0-10 straight up, and favorites with that rest disadvantage are 3-1 ATS.
  • Only two teams have played a game off a bye so far, both in Week 6: Carolina (won and covered at Philadelphia, Under) and Kansas City (won and covered against the Chargers, Under). Both were favorites.
  • Teams coming off an international game without a bye are 3-5 ATS and 4-3-1 straight up (3-4 ATS and 4-2-1 straight up excluding Jacksonville's back-to-back games in London). Houston, which played in London in Week 6, is in that spot against the Giants.
  • After a loss (or a tie), teams are 39-33-7 ATS (favorites 16-13-4, underdogs 23-20-3) and the O/U is 39-40. After a win, teams are 34-40-1 ATS and the O/U is 37-38.

Margins and Key Numbers (through Week 6)

  • Out of 93 games, 57 (61%) were decided by eight points or fewer, 23 (25%) by three points or fewer and 25 (27%) by 14+ points.
  • A total of 16 games have been decided by exactly three points and 11 by exactly seven points, so the half-point on a 3 or a 7 has mattered more than any other number this season.

How This Maps to Week 7

  • Divisional games (five): Buccaneers at Panthers (Tampa Bay +3), Bengals at Ravens (Cincinnati +1.5, and the favorite could flip based on the status of Lamar Jackson), Dolphins at Jets (Miami +4.5), Packers at Lions (Green Bay +3) and Cowboys at Eagles (Philadelphia at home as an underdog). The four road underdogs are 10-3 ATS and 9-4 toward the Over; the Eagles are the only home divisional underdog (7-2 ATS, 3-6 toward the Over).
  • Totals of 42 points or fewer (8-17): Colts at Vikings (41.5), Dolphins at Jets (39.5) and Browns at Titans (36.5). Giants at Texans straddles the cutoff (best prices 42.5 and 43.5).
  • Totals of 42.5 to 45: Chiefs at Seahawks (42.5), Cowboys at Eagles (44.5), Steelers at Saints (44.5) and Buccaneers at Panthers (44.5); Broncos at Cardinals (42.5 and 44) sit at the bottom of the range.
  • Totals of 48+ points (14-9 Over): Bengals at Ravens (48.5), 49ers at Falcons (best prices 49.5 and 50.5) and Packers at Lions (52.5, in the 6-1 Over group of 52+ points). Rams at Raiders (48.5).
  • Rest: the Vikings (14 days vs. 7 for the Colts), Lions (14 vs. 7 for the Packers), Bengals (14 vs. 7 for the Ravens) and Dolphins (14 vs. 7 for the Jets) are off the Week 6 bye, and the Broncos (10 vs. 7 for the Cardinals) and Seahawks (10 vs. 7 for the Chiefs) played Thursday in Week 6. The favorites in those games (Minnesota, Detroit, Denver, Seattle) are in the 9-0-1 ATS group; the underdogs with the rest edge (Miami, and Cincinnati if it stays a slight underdog) are in the 1-3 group, a very small sample.
  • Spread size: the Giants (+10.5 at Houston) are the only underdog of seven points or more (15-7-2 ATS). The Colts (+6.5) and Dolphins (+4.5) sit just under that line.

Week 7 NFL Betting Primer

Official Plays

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Vikings -6.5

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), Indianapolis is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 2-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-1 ATS and 2-0 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 2-2 ATS and 3-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-3 ATS and 4-2 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), Minnesota is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 3-1 ATS and 1-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-1 ATS and 1-4 O/U.
  • Indianapolis streaks through Week 6: 2-4 straight up (two-game losing streak), 3-3 against the spread (two-game non-cover streak), 4-2 toward the total (two-game Over streak).
  • Minnesota streaks through Week 6: 5-0 straight up (five-game win streak), 4-1 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 1-4 toward the total (four-game Under streak).
  • Indianapolis comes in off a 26-20 home loss to Tennessee as a 6.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 6). Minnesota comes in off a 23-13 road win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite, covering (Week 5; off the Week 6 bye).
  • Days between games: Indianapolis has 7 and Minnesota has 14 (coming off the Week 6 bye).
  • Minnesota has won 10 straight games dating back to December 2025 and is 5-0 in 2026.
  • All four Minnesota Unders this season have been low-scoring: 12 points (total 48.5), 39 (42.5), 25 (38.5) and 36 (41.5). The Vikings’ only Over came in Week 1 (61 points against Green Bay).
  • Indianapolis is 10-7 ATS as a road underdog since 2023. The Colts are 1-3 ATS with a rest disadvantage dating back to last season.
  • League-wide in 2026, games with a closing total of 42 points or fewer are 8-17 toward the Over (17 Unders in 25 games, 68%) through Week 6; games with a closing total above 42 are 38-30 Over. BettingPros consensus odds have this game’s total at  41.5.
  • Indianapolis is 3-3 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6); Minnesota is 5-1 ATS and 1-5 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 6).

Injuries

Overall

I love the Vikings here, and I’m more than comfortable laying up to a touchdown. The Colts’ defense is bad (bottom-six in points per game and total yards per play allowed), Daniel Jones has not looked good coming off the Achilles injury, and cornerback Sauce Gardner’s calf injury has already ruled him out for Sunday. Tight end Tyler Warren also won’t play for the second straight game.

The Colts have even fewer answers against a well-rested Minnesota team fresh off their bye week (with a clean bill of health).

The favorites in games so far with a seven-day rest advantage are 9-0-1 ATS.

The Indianapolis organization relieved general manager Chris Ballard of his duties, and the team just lost to a previously winless Titans team on self-inflicted penalties, special-teams miscues and boneheaded turnovers.

I gave out Vikings -5 on the Week 7 Best Bets show, but still feel fine with the number below seven points.

I’d lean toward the Under too. Minnesota’s games have stayed low, and this total is already in the low 40s (but totals in this range so far this season are 8-17/68% toward the Under).

I also like a prop in this game. Five-star NFL props are up +27.7 units this season (through Week 6).

The under on Kyler Murray’s pass attempts is at 30.5. He’s gone over just once in his three starts this season. And given his ability to scramble, that cuts down on passes for the Vikings quarterback. Only one quarterback has attempted more than 31 passes versus the Colts (the Chiefs game went into overtime). Given how bad the Colts have been against the run (32nd in expected points added/rush faced), I could see Minnesota leaning on a rushing attack with Jordan Mason back in the fold. I just don’t see the Colts’ offense pushing Minnesota in any capacity.

Props

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Over 52.5 Points

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), Green Bay is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 0-2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-3-1 ATS and 2-4 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (its role here), Detroit is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 2-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 1-1 ATS and 2-0 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-2 ATS and 4-0 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-3 ATS and 5-0 O/U.
  • Green Bay streaks through Week 6: 4-2 straight up (three-game win streak), 2-3-1 against the spread (two-game cover streak), 2-4 toward the total (three-game Under streak).
  • Detroit streaks through Week 6: 3-2 straight up (one-game win streak), 2-3 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 5-0 toward the total (five-game Over streak).
  • Green Bay comes in off a 23-13 home win over Dallas as a 1.5-point favorite, covering (Week 6; Sunday night). Detroit comes in off a 45-21 road win at Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite, covering (Week 5; off the Week 6 bye).
  • Days between games: Green Bay has 7 and Detroit has 14 (coming off the Week 6 bye).
  • Detroit has gone Over the total in all five of its 2026 games, averaging 62.4 combined points (finals of 61, 72, 55, 58 and 66), and the Lions’ last six home games have all gone Over.
  • Green Bay has not covered in any of its three road games in 2026: a 39-22 loss at Minnesota as a 1.5-point underdog, a 20-17 win at the Jets as a 3.5-point favorite (no cover) and a 17-14 win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite (a push).
  • Closing totals of 50+ are 9-5 toward the Over in 2026 through Week 6 (14 games).
  • Green Bay is 2-3-1 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6); Detroit is 3-3 ATS and 5-1 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 6).

Injuries

Overall

The Over is my best bet. It’s at Ford Field, two offenses that can cook/score, and Detroit has gone Over in every game so far this season (5-0, averaging 62.4 combined points).

In the Lions’ last 36 home games, they have averaged over 55 points, with 75% of those games (27 out of 36) hitting at least 51 points. Ford Field is still the Coors Field of the NFL.

  • Totals of 52+ points are 6-1 Over, and 50+ points are 10-5 this season.
  • Lions are 8-2 toward the Over as a home favorite since last season.
  • The Lions’ last seven home games have all gone Over. They’ve gone Over in 18 of their last 25 home games.
  • Lions after a bye week: 4-0 toward the Over.

Take the free square of the week. Unless, of course, safety Brian Branch returns and completely fixes the Lions’ secondary and/or Josh Jacobs turns the Packers back into a no-fun, run-first offense. I don’t think those things will happen right away, but keep that in mind for Lions and Packers games the rest of the season.

And for more fun, bet on a Tucker Kraft anytime touchdown prop on National Tight Ends Day. Kraft has scored on National Tight Ends Day over the last two seasons. His stat lines in those games:

  • 2025: 7 catches, 9 targets, 143 yards and 2 touchdowns
  • 2024: 3 catches, 78 yards, 1 touchdown.

And don’t forget to bet on Jahmyr Gibbs to score a touchdown

Props

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Chiefs +2.5

Trends

  • As a road underdog (its role here), Kansas City hasn’t been in that role yet in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; Kansas City has not been an underdog in any 2026 game; across all 2026 games, 3-2 ATS and 2-3 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), Seattle is 0-1-2 ATS (0%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 0-1-2 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-3-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 1-3-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U.
  • Kansas City streaks through Week 6: 5-0 straight up (five-game win streak), 3-2 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 2-3 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
  • Seattle streaks through Week 6: 3-3 straight up (two-game losing streak), 1-3-2 against the spread (three-game non-cover streak), 3-3 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
  • Kansas City comes in off a 22-6 home win over the Chargers as a 7.5-point favorite, covering (Week 6; Week 5 bye). Seattle comes in off a 17-14 overtime road loss to Denver as a 2.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 6; Thursday night).
  • Days between games: Kansas City has 7 and Seattle has 10.
  • Kansas City’s two closest wins this season were by three points (33-30 in overtime over Indianapolis and 30-27 at Las Vegas), and the Chiefs failed to cover as favorites in both.
  • Seattle has lost two straight games (29-32 at home to San Francisco, then 14-17 in overtime at Denver) and has failed to cover three straight (a push in Week 4, then losses in Weeks 5 and 6). Its 5-0 ATS run as a road favorite ended in Week 6.
  • Kansas City is 3-3 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 6); Seattle is 1-3-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6). 5 of Seattle’s last 6 home games have gone OVER.
  • Prime-time record in 2026 (through Week 6): Kansas City is 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U in 2 prime-time games; Seattle is 0-1-1 ATS and 0-2 O/U in 2 prime-time games.

Injuries

Overall

I’m on the Kansas City Chiefs on both the spread and the Moneyline.

Kansas City is the only AFC team ranked in the top five in expected points added (EPA) per play on both offense and defense, and I’ll blindly bet on Patrick Mahomes as an underdog.

Kansas City ranks fourth in EPA/play on offense, third on defense. Seattle ranks 24th in EPA/play on offense, second on defense.

The market undervalues Mahomes as an underdog, as it does with other elite quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Patrick Mahomes as an underdog: 13-3-1 (79.4%) ATS. Only Tyler Shough (87.5%) and Lamar Jackson (80%) are better in that capacity.

Mahomes is also 4-3 straight up in his career (including playoffs) against the team leading the NFL in total defense entering the week, posting an 85.7 passer rating with 13 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions across those seven games, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But now he has a certain running back to help him out against this tough defense.

Kenneth Walker III is playing against his old team in a revenge game, and he leads the NFL in rushing yards with more than 600 through five games.

Kansas City is 5-0 straight up, and Seattle is 1-3-2 ATS with four straight non-covers in 2026, per DraftKings Sportsbook. The reigning Super Bowl champs are also just 0-1-2 ATS at home this season.

And Sam Darnold… has sort of turned back into a pumpkin?

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Darnold’s seven interceptions this season came across his four complete games, after he played just five snaps in Week 1 before suffering an injury and missing Week 2 entirely. His 1.4 interceptions per game is the highest rate among qualified quarterbacks since Jameis Winston in 2019.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Picks: Eagles +4.5

Trends

  • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), Dallas is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-2 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-2 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-3-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U.
  • As a home underdog (its role here), Philadelphia is 0-2 ATS (0%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 0-3 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-2 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 1-5 ATS and 3-3 O/U.
  • Dallas streaks through Week 6: 2-4 straight up (two-game losing streak), 2-3-1 against the spread (two-game non-cover streak), 3-3 toward the total (two-game Under streak).
  • Philadelphia streaks through Week 6: 2-4 straight up (four-game losing streak), 1-5 against the spread (one-game non-cover streak), 3-3 toward the total (two-game Under streak).
  • Dallas comes in off a 23-13 road loss at Green Bay as a 1.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 6; Sunday night). Philadelphia comes in off a 25-14 home loss to Carolina as a 3.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 6).
  • Divisional home underdogs are 7-2 ATS and 6-3 straight up in 2026 through Week 6 (nine games). Philadelphia is a home underdog in this divisional game.
  • Philadelphia has lost four straight games, including home losses to the Rams (20-24) and Carolina (14-25), both as 3.5-point underdogs, and is 1-5 ATS in 2026; it is 12-8 ATS on the road since 2024 but 0-3 ATS at home this season.
  • Dallas has failed to cover in two straight games (a 16-24 home loss to Tampa Bay as an 8.5-point favorite, then a 13-23 loss at Green Bay) and both of those games stayed under the total.
  • Dallas is 2-3-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6); Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6).
  • Prime-time record in 2026 (through Week 6): Dallas is 0-3 ATS and 0-3 O/U in 3 prime-time games; Philadelphia is 0-1 ATS and 0-1 O/U in 1 prime-time game.

Injuries

Overall

I’m on the Eagles. Go Birds.

I’ll blindly bet on home divisional underdogs getting more than a field goal.

Divisional underdogs are 19-5 ATS in 2026 (24 games), and divisional favorites are 5-19. Home divisional underdogs are 7-2 ATS. Home divisional underdogs are only 6-3 straight up.

Tanner McKee is starting for Jalen Hurts, but the Eagles will at least get back starting running back Saquon Barkley after he missed the last few games. The Cowboys have looked dreadful in back-to-back prime-time spots, and I don’t think that changes with them coming in as 4.5-point favorites.

The Cowboys’ defense is still bad, and I think Philadelphia can capitalize on it offensively. Keep in mind that Cowboys defensive coordinator Christian Parker spent 2024-2025 with the Eagles under Vic Fangio as the passing game coordinator and defensive backs coach. Ergo, the Eagles offense should be very familiar with how to attack this scheme even with under-manned personnel. The Eagles have won 12 of their last 13 home division games.

Dallas is just 1-7 ATS as a road favorite (1-6 since the start of last season: tied for last among teams at a 14.3% cover rate). Woof.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Saints +3.5

Trends

  • As a favorite (its role here), Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS (75%) and 3-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all 2026 games, 4-2 ATS and 4-2 O/U.
  • As an underdog (its role here), New Orleans is 2-1 ATS (67%) and 1-2 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all 2026 games, 3-3 ATS and 4-2 O/U.
  • Pittsburgh streaks through Week 6: 4-2 straight up (two-game win streak), 4-2 against the spread (two-game cover streak), 4-2 toward the total (four-game Over streak).
  • New Orleans streaks through Week 6: 2-4 straight up (one-game win streak), 3-3 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 4-2 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
  • Pittsburgh comes in off a 26-19 overtime road win at Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point favorite, covering (Week 6). New Orleans comes in off a 34-27 road win at the Giants as a 1.5-point favorite, covering (Week 6).
  • New Orleans games are averaging 55.0 combined points in 2026 (330 points in six games) against an average closing total of 45.9, and the Saints allow 29.7 points per game. In Week 6, New Orleans’ 34-27 win over the Giants finished with 61 points against a 46-point total.
  • Saints quarterback Tyler Shough is 10-5 ATS as a starter, including the Week 6 cover at the Giants. He has the best ATS underdog record among starting NFL QBs: 7-1 (87.5%).
  • Pittsburgh has gone Over the total in each of its last four games (Weeks 3 through 6), and the Steelers’ Week 6 win at Tampa Bay (26-19 in overtime) finished 45 points against a 38.5 total.
  • Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6); New Orleans is 3-3 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6).

Injuries

Overall

I don’t see a massive edge in this game. The lines look generally right to me, but these international games can be unpredictable. The team trends suggest the Saints with the points and the game total Over, but that contradicts the favorites and under as the preferred side in international NFL matchups.

New Orleans has been a very slow-starting offense (26th in first-quarter points at 7.2, with eight straight games of their opponents being first to 10 points), so it makes sense they traveled early to Paris to adjust. The Steelers traveled later in the week (which Aaron Rodgers wasn’t a fan of), suggesting they might come out a bit sluggish, as we have seen at times with teams that travel late in the week.

If you forced me to take a side, I would take the Saints with the points (especially at 3.5).

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Rodgers has a 32.9% success rate against Cover 3 this season, the third-lowest among qualified passers and his lowest in any season since 2018 (prior low: 40.1% in 2024).
Against all other zone coverages this season, Rodgers has a 52.9% success rate, the seventh-highest. The Saints have played Cover 3 on 55.9% of opponent dropbacks this season, the highest rate in the NFL.

Sharps via the Smart Money BettingPros Tool are willing to lay -122 on the Saints +3.5 (based on $214,000 in prediction market liquidity).

But I like the player props the most.

Pat Freiermuth OVER 29.5 receiving yards. He has at least 29.5 receiving yards in four of his six games played this season. The matchup is great for him versus the Saints, who have allowed the third-most yards to tight ends this season. Seven tight ends they have faced hit 30 receiving yards. He didn’t go over last week, but he was a late addition to the injury report (and needed medical attention late in Week 6), which hurt his production. Despite the limited snaps, Freiermuth still ran more routes than Darnell Washington.

Sunday also marks National Tight Ends Day, so you’ll see a few tight ends pop off for yards/scores. Freiermuth has four touchdowns this season and five red-zone targets. The Steelers love using both their tight ends in the red zone:

  • 8 combined end-zone targets
  • 10 combined red-zone targets
  • 6 combined touchdowns

Freiermuth has also scored a touchdown in three of his last four games with the Steelers as favorites. And Sunday? The Steelers tight end will celebrate his 28th birthday.

Props

Giants at Houston Texans

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Picks: Giants +10.5 & Under 42.5 Points

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), the New York Giants are 1-1 ATS (50%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-2 ATS and 3-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (its role here), Houston is 0-2 ATS (0%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 0-3 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-3 ATS and 1-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U.
  • New York Giants streak through Week 6: 3-2-1 straight up (one-game losing streak), 4-2 against the spread (one-game non-cover streak), 3-3 toward the total (three-game Over streak).
  • Houston streaks through Week 6: 2-4 straight up (two-game win streak), 2-4 against the spread (two-game cover streak), 3-3 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
  • The Giants come in off a 34-27 home loss to New Orleans as a 1.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 6). Houston comes in off a 34-31 neutral-site win over Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog, covering (Week 6).
  • Teams coming off an international game without a bye are 3-5 ATS and 4-3-1 straight up through Week 6 in 2026 (3-4 ATS and 4-2-1 SU excluding Jacksonville’s back-to-back London games). Houston, which played Jacksonville in London in Week 6, is in that spot.
  • Houston is 0-3 ATS at home in 2026 (0-2 as a home favorite), and its largest favorite role before this game was 7.5 points (Week 5 at Tennessee, a 26-3 win that covered).
  • The Giants have gone Over the total in three straight games (Weeks 4, 5 and 6), and they are 1-1 ATS on the road in 2026.
  • New York is 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6); Houston is 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6).

Injuries

Overall

The international no-bye angle proved itself again over the last two weeks, and Houston is coming off the London game.

I’m a believer in the Texans, but I can’t lay this big of a number given how hard everybody seems to be riding Houston. After the international game and with no bye in between, the Texans are 0-3 ATS at home this season (0-2 ATS as a home favorite). 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.

At double-digits, I think there is value on the Giants, even with J.J. McCarthy making his first start for Big Blue.

I said the Week 7 early lookahead lines suggest that if McCarthy was named the starter, the line could move toward Houston (which proved correct, going from 9.5 to 10.5).

The Giants (+10.5 at Houston) are the only underdog of seven or more points in Week 7. Those teams through six weeks have gone 15-7-2 ATS.

Double-digit underdogs (+9.5 or higher) are 4-2 ATS through Week 6, with two outright wins. The only team that hasn’t covered the double-digit spread? The Dolphins (2-1 ATS in those spots). Houston’s only defensive weakness this season has been giving up explosive plays, and safeties Jalen Pitre and Reed Blankenship are both out again with injuries.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, the Texans’ defense has used Cover 3 at the fifth-highest rate this season (42.0%), allowing 6.3 yards per attempt (6th-fewest) and a 35.3% success rate (6th-lowest) when doing so. In all other coverages, they have allowed 8.0 yards per attempt (fourth-most) and a 21.3% explosive rate (2nd-highest). Over the last two seasons against Cover 3, McCarthy has averaged 7.6 yards per attempt (NFL average: 7.5) and a 19.8% explosive rate (NFL average: 16.2%).

The “safe” bet in this game might actually be the under. Games with an underdog of +9.5 have gone 5-1 for the under so far this season.

As for player props, dare I go back into this Giants’ backfield? Let’s do it.

But this time I’ll take the under on Tyrone Tracy Jr. at 25.5 rushing yards.

The matchup is brutal:

  • Houston allows the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.
  • Houston allows the second-fewest yards per carry this season (3.4). They have just 10 rushes for 10+ yards.
  • Dead last in rushing yards over expectation per attempt.
  • Houston allows the fifth-fewest rushing yards allowed before contact.

Last week, Tracy led the Giants backfield with nine of the backs' 18 opportunities (50.0%) and scored twice (a 17-yard catch on 3rd-and-6 and a five-yard run on 3rd-and-2). He still finished with just six carries for 18 yards (38% snaps).

Collectively, Giants running backs were awful against the Saints’ league-worst run defense last week.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats: Giants running backs averaged 2.4 yards per carry despite averaging 4.6 expected yards per carry (NFL average: 4.2). Their -2.2 rushing yards over expected per carry was the lowest mark by a team’s running backs this season. They combined for 14 carries for 34 yards in Week 6. The rushing attack was lackluster without Cam Skattebo (McCarthy led the Giants in rushing yards, followed by wideout Darnell Mooney, neither of whom play running back).

I think Skattebo will get more involved next week. That’s been the general sentiment around Giants practice this week; coaches are impressed by how Skattebo responded to last week’s benching, so I am projecting him to get the lion’s share of work, with Tracy sprinkling in alongside Devin Singletary.

Tracy’s rushing prop (when it was listed) earlier in the year was closer to 15.5-16.5 rushing yards, so I think it’s been boosted after last week.

As for the Welsh/Erickson squad ride player prop, we are honing in on Texans wide receiver Tank Dell.

Dell will return to the field for the first time in over two years after battling through devastating injuries. We know C.J. Stroud will give him at least one look, and that’s why we love the over on his receiving yards.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, over his first two seasons, Dell generated an explosive reception (15+ yards) on 5.3% of his routes (17th-highest, minimum 500 routes). He also recorded 1,029 receiving yards on downfield receptions (10+ air yards, 28th-most) during that span. Dell has averaged 14 yards per reception in his NFL career (8.8 yards per career target). Dell has not surpassed 7.5 yards in a game with at least one reception only once in his career.

Sharps via the Smart Money BettingPros Tool back Dell over 0.5 receptions at -190 (based on $1,300 in prediction market liquidity). Underdog has this listed at -179.

Props

Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Over 48.5 Points

Trends

  • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), Los Angeles is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 2-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-1 ATS and 2-0 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U.
  • As a home underdog (its role here), Las Vegas is 2-0 ATS (100%) and 2-0 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 3-0 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 4-1 ATS and 4-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 5-1 ATS and 4-2 O/U.
  • Los Angeles streaks through Week 6: 2-4 straight up (two-game losing streak), 2-4 against the spread (two-game non-cover streak), 3-3 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
  • Las Vegas streaks through Week 6: 3-3 straight up (three-game losing streak), 5-1 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 4-2 toward the total (four-game Over streak).
  • The Rams come in off an 18-16 home loss to Arizona as a 12.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 6). Las Vegas comes in off a 33-30 home loss to Buffalo as a 5.5-point underdog, covering (Week 6).
  • Las Vegas’ four straight Overs have averaged 61.0 combined points (62, 57, 62 and 63) against closing totals of 43.5, 47.5, 45.5 and 53.5.
  • Los Angeles has lost two straight games (34-37 in overtime to Buffalo and 16-18 to Arizona as a 12.5-point favorite) and failed to cover both.
  • The Rams are 2-0 toward the Over on the road in 2026, and have gone Over the total in at least 10 of their last 12 road games (9 of last 10 road games).
  • Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6); Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6).

Injuries

Overall

I like the Raiders plus the points. Kirk Cousins has played well in Klint Kubiak’s offense, and the Rams are reeling and banged up on defense, with cornerback Trent McDuffie likely out and Myles Garrett still not back. The Rams added two more defensive linemen to their injured reserve (IR) this week (Poona Ford, Kobie Turner).

I also like the Over. This is a dome game with two high-powered offenses. Nine of the Rams’ last 10 games have gone Over. Las Vegas’ four straight Overs have averaged 61.0 combined points (62, 57, 62 and 63) against closing totals of 43.5, 47.5, 45.5 and 53.5.

My favorite player prop in this game is Kyren Williams’ rushing yards. He’s coming off a down game and was upset about his total workload after the game. Head coach Sean McVay will feed Williams a ton in this spot against the Raiders.

Las Vegas is allowing the second-most rushing yards to opposing running backs (114 per game).

Williams has 14+ carries in three of his last four games and averaged over 16 carries and 74 rushing yards per game in 2025 without Davante Adams (three games). Without Puka Nacua to start the year (true game-time decision this week), Williams went over 85 rushing yards in both games.

I also like the over on Rams tight end Tyler Higbee, specifically on his receptions total. Higbee caught only four passes last week, but he had five or more catches and 62+ yards in three straight games from Weeks 3-5. No Adams and/or Nacua should free up the Rams’ No. 1 TE. And don’t get it twisted, Higbee was the Rams’ No. 1 TE in Week 6 based on his snaps (83%) and route participation (season-high 78%) ahead of Colby Parkinson.

Las Vegas has allowed the third-most catches to tight ends this season (6.7 per game).

Props

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Broncos -4.5

Trends

  • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), Denver is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-2 ATS and 0-3 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-0 ATS and 0-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-2 ATS and 1-5 O/U.
  • As a home underdog (its role here), Arizona is 0-2 ATS (0%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 0-2 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-2 ATS and 2-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U.
  • Denver streaks through Week 6: 4-2 straight up (two-game win streak), 4-2 against the spread (two-game cover streak), 1-5 toward the total (three-game Under streak).
  • Arizona streaks through Week 6: 2-4 straight up (one-game win streak), 3-3 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 3-3 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
  • Denver comes in off a 17-14 home win over Seattle as a 2.5-point underdog, covering (Week 6; Thursday night). Arizona comes in off an 18-16 road win at the Rams as a 12.5-point underdog, covering (Week 6).
  • Days between games: Denver has 10 and Arizona has 7.
  • Denver is 4-2 ATS over its last six games and 1-2 ATS on the road in 2026. Denver’s games are 1-5 toward the Over in 2026 (0-3 on the road): its six finishes were 41, 33, 56, 38, 40 and 31 points, and only the 56-point Week 3 win over the Rams finished above 41.
  • Arizona is 0-2 ATS at home in 2026 and 1-9 ATS over its last 10 home games.
  • Denver is 4-2 ATS and 1-5 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6); Arizona is 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6).

Injuries

Overall

I like Denver in this spot. The Broncos are coming off a mini-bye after Thursday, and I imagine Bo Nix will play with a chip on his shoulder after the Ryan Fitzpatrick criticism in Week 6. The Broncos have had a tough schedule to start the year (Kansas City, Jacksonville, Rams, San Francisco, Chargers, Seattle), so Arizona should be the get-right spot for their offense to get going.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, the Cardinals’ defense is allowing 0.65 fantasy points per dropback this season, the highest mark since at least 2016.

Arizona has faced the fourth-fewest dropbacks in the league (191), but has given up the most passing touchdowns in the NFL (16). Opposing quarterbacks are posting a 116.5 passer rating and 8.6 yards per attempt against the Cardinals, both the highest in the league.

I don’t think Arizona’s win over the Rams says as much about the Cardinals as it does about the Rams. Their offensive line is banged up, and Denver could overpower the Cardinals on both sides of the trenches.

This isn’t one of my best bets, but I am changing my tune; this is definitely a get-right spot for Denver. The Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS with rest advantage since 2024. Underdogs facing an opponent with at least three extra days of rest are 0-9-1 ATS and 0-10 straight up, and favorites with that rest disadvantage are 3-1 ATS.

Arizona is 0-2 ATS at home this season.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Under 37.5 Points

Trends

  • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), Cleveland hasn’t been in that role yet in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-2 ATS and 2-1 O/U; Cleveland has not been a favorite in any 2026 game; across all 2026 games, 4-2 ATS (including 4-1 in last 5 games) and 3-3 O/U.
  • As a home underdog (its role here), Tennessee is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-2 ATS and 2-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-3 ATS and 2-4 O/U.
  • Cleveland streaks through Week 6: 4-2 straight up (one-game win streak), 4-2 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 3-3 toward the total (two-game Under streak).
  • Tennessee streaks through Week 6: 1-5 straight up (one-game win streak), 3-3 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 2-4 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
  • Cleveland comes in off a 13-10 home win over Baltimore as a 3.5-point underdog, covering (Week 6). Tennessee comes in off a 26-20 road win at Indianapolis as a 6.5-point underdog, covering (Week 6).
  • Cleveland has not been a favorite in any of its six games in 2026, so this is its first game laying points. The Browns are 3-0 ATS at home but 1-2 ATS on the road.
  • Tennessee has gone Over the total in 13 of 20 games (65%) since Cam Ward became the starting quarterback in 2024, including the Week 6 win at Indianapolis (46 points against a 44.5 total).
  • League-wide in 2026, games with a closing total of 42 points or fewer are 8-17 toward the Over (17 Unders in 25 games, 68%) through Week 6; games with a closing total of 40 points or fewer are 3-7 Over. BettingPros has this game’s total near 37.5.
  • Cleveland is 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6); Tennessee is 3-3 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6).

Injuries

Overall

I projected this game total at 36.5 back on Monday, and it moved up slightly to 37.5. I’m leaning on the Titans with the points at home. I don’t think Cleveland (or any team led by Deshaun Watson) should be a market road favorite. The Browns’ win over the Ravens was a self-inflicted loss by Baltimore. Also, Cleveland was disrespected as a divisional home underdog versus a backup quarterback.

Watson has not been good. That doesn’t make the Titans a strong bet either, given they were outgained by more than 200 yards by the Colts in Week 6 and still won on special teams, penalties and turnovers.

This is another under bet for me between two bad teams. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, the Browns (17.7 points per game, T-28th) and Titans (14.0 points per game, tied for last) are both among the NFL’s bottom-five scoring offenses in 2026. Their defenses also rank in the top-13 in points per game allowed (Browns: 20.3, 5th) and (Titans: 21.5, 13th).

Week 7 Remaining Matchups

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Under 39.5 Points

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), Miami is 1-2 ATS (33%) and 1-2 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-2 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-3-1 ATS and 2-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 1-3-1 ATS and 2-3 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (its role here), New York is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 3-0 ATS and 0-3 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-0 ATS and 0-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-2 ATS and 2-4 O/U.
  • Miami streaks through Week 6: 0-5 straight up (five-game losing streak), 1-3-1 against the spread (one-game cover streak), 2-3 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
  • New York streaks through Week 6: 2-4 straight up (one-game losing streak), 4-2 against the spread (two-game cover streak), 2-4 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
  • Miami comes in off a 31-24 home loss to Cincinnati as a 7-point underdog, a push against the spread (Week 5; off the Week 6 bye). The Jets come in off a 26-19 road loss at New England as a 7.5-point underdog, covering (Week 6).
  • Days between games: Miami has 14 (coming off the Week 6 bye) and New York has 7.
  • All three of the Jets’ home games in 2026 have gone Under the total (39.5, 44.5 and 38.5 totals; 33, 37 and 29 points), and New York is 3-0 ATS at home.
  • Miami has scored 24 or fewer points in all five games (13, 13, 10, 10 and 24), but its Week 5 loss to Cincinnati still went Over (55 points against a 44.5 total).
  • League-wide in 2026, games with a closing total of 42 points or fewer are 8-17 toward the Over (17 Unders in 25 games, 68%) through Week 6; games with a closing total of 40 points or fewer are 3-7 Over. BettingPros has this game’s total at about 39.5.
  • Miami is 1-4-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 6); New York is 4-2 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6).

Injuries

 

Overall

This game seems easy to handicap. All three of the Jets’ home games in 2026 have gone under the total (39.5, 44.5 and 38.5 totals; 33, 37 and 29 points), and New York is 3-0 ATS at home. Totals of 42 points or fewer are 17-8 to the Under, and 7-3 to the Under at 40 points or fewer. Miami hasn't scored more than 24 in any game. Bet the under and watch another game on Sunday.

Seth’s Polymarket prediction for Week 7 was the under at 39.5 points (featured on the Week 7 Best Bets Show).

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Pass

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), Cincinnati is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-1-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-0 ATS and 0-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-2-1 ATS and 3-2 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (its role here), Baltimore is 0-2 ATS (0%) and 0-2 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 0-2 ATS and 0-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-3-1 ATS and 2-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-3-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U.
  • Cincinnati streaks through Week 6: 3-2 straight up (one-game win streak), 2-2-1 against the spread (two-game non-cover streak), 3-2 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
  • 4 of the last 5 Bengals’ road games have gone OVER.
  • Baltimore streaks through Week 6: 4-2 straight up (one-game losing streak), 2-3-1 against the spread (one-game non-cover streak), 3-3 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
  • Cincinnati comes in off a 31-24 road win at Miami as a 7-point favorite, a push against the spread (Week 5; off the Week 6 bye). Baltimore comes in off a 13-10 road loss at Cleveland as a 3.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 6).
  • Days between games: Cincinnati has 14 (coming off the Week 6 bye) and Baltimore has 7. However, rest hasn’t helped Cincinnati cover recently, as they have lost seven of their last eight games with a rest advantage.
  • Baltimore has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine home games, including both 2026 home games (as an 8.5-point and an 11.5-point favorite). 2-9 at home ATS since 2025 (0-2 ATS as home underdog, 2-7 ATS as home favorite).
  • Baltimore has gone over the total in 14 of its last 16 games following a loss. The Ravens come off a Week 6 loss to the Browns.
  • Lamar Jackson missed Weeks 5 and 6 with an ankle injury. In those two games, Baltimore went 1-1 straight up and 1-1 ATS: a 30-23 win at Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog and a 13-10 loss at Cleveland as a 3.5-point favorite.
  • League-wide in 2026, games with a closing total of 48 or higher are 14-9 toward the Over through Week 6 (23 games).
  • Cincinnati is 2-3-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2025 Week 18 through 2026 Week 6); Baltimore is 2-3-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6).

Injuries

Overall

This game hinges on Lamar Jackson. If he plays, I expect a high-scoring game; if he doesn’t, it will be low-scoring. The FantasyPros “Are They Playing Tool” leans toward his third missed game (35% chance to play).

On the early number, I liked the Bengals plus the points. Cincinnati is coming off a bye, Joe Burrow is back at quarterback and Joe Burrow-Lamar Jackson games are always close. I also didn’t like what I saw from Baltimore in Cleveland: A classic Ravens collapse with Tyler Huntley at quarterback, including a Derrick Henry fumble and a defensive pass interference call.

If the line flips and Baltimore becomes a home divisional underdog, I would buy that back.

Home teams in the AFC North (especially when they are the underdogs) are the side you typically want to be betting on. The home team has covered in the last four AFC North matchups. Baltimore is also dramatically overdue for a home cover, and it would be the perfect alignment if they do so as divisional home underdogs as the lines settle before Sunday’s kickoff.

Calling my shot here: I think Jackson won’t play, but the Ravens cover the point spread at home. I’d imagine they get three points.

If you’re reading this now and Jackson’s status is still ‘up in the air,’ I’d hammer the Bengals Moneyline and reap the closing line value (CLV).

My longshot first touchdown bet in Week 7: Matthew Hibner (+5500).

The rookie tight end ranks in the top-15 in snaps inside the 10-yard line. He missed last week’s game with a hand injury but is practicing in full this week. He already scored this season (played 50% or more of the snaps in Weeks 3-4).

Interestingly, Cincinnati hasn’t allowed a touchdown to a tight end yet this season, but they are allowing the second-most yards per game to the position. Eventually, the regression will kick in, and it seems fitting that it would happen on National Tight Ends Day.

Props

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Picks: Over 44.5 Points & Panthers -2.5

Trends

  • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), Tampa Bay is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-3-1 ATS and 2-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 1-4-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U.
  • As a home favorite (its role here), Carolina has not yet been in that role in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 1-1 ATS and 2-0 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-1 ATS and 0-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-2 ATS and 2-3 O/U.
  • Tampa Bay streaks through Week 6: 1-5 straight up (one-game losing streak), 1-4-1 against the spread (one-game non-cover streak), 3-3 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
  • Carolina streaks through Week 6: 3-2 straight up (two-game win streak), 3-2 against the spread (two-game cover streak), 2-3 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
  • Tampa Bay comes off a 26-19 overtime home loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 6). Carolina comes in off a 25-14 road win at Philadelphia as a 3.5-point favorite, covering (Week 6; Week 5 bye).
  • Carolina’s 2026 home games have both gone Over the total: 96 points against a 47.5 total (Week 1 vs. Chicago) and 58 against a 51.5 total (Week 4 vs. Detroit).
  • Tampa Bay’s only cover this season came in Week 5 at Dallas, an outright 24-16 win as an 8.5-point underdog. The Buccaneers are 1-4-1 ATS and 1-5 straight up.
  • Tampa Bay is 1-4-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6); Carolina is 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2025 Wild Card Round through 2026 Week 6).

Injuries

Overall

I’m on the Panthers. And I love that you get them at home for less than a field goal. Bryce Young is playing his best football, and Baker Mayfield’s return doesn’t mean you can escape the Cardiac Cats.

The Buccaneers’ offense was struggling immensely even before Mayfield got hurt. He hasn’t covered in any of his last 12 starts, and the market has continued to dramatically overrate Tampa Bay since the second half of last season. Their last cover came against Dallas with the backup quarterback (and an 8.5-point spread). It also remains to be seen how Mayfield will play in his first game back from injury. That was part of why he played so poorly last season.

The 2.5-point line shows respect for an in-division matchup (divisional underdogs are 19-5 ATS), but it feels like Carolina is getting zero credit for their impressive 3-2 start. I can’t understand how the Buccaneers would be slight favorites on a neutral field given the 2.5-point spread (especially without No. 1 WR Emeka Egbuka).

Again, these tight-spread divisional games can always feel like traps, so I won’t make Carolina -2.5 an official play (though that is my lean).

The sharper move might be on the over: Road divisional teams are 9-4 toward the over this season, averaging 49.8 points against a 45.4 total. Carolina is 2-0 at home to the over.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Bryce Young has thrown for 593 yards against the blitz this season, the second-most in the NFL, averaging 8.9 yards per attempt (fifth in the NFL) without throwing an interception.

Young’s explosive play rate against the blitz is a league-high 26.1%, up 11.3 percentage points from 14.8% against four or fewer pass-rushers. The Buccaneers have blitzed on 43.8% of passing plays this season (third-highest in the league), allowing just 6.1 yards per attempt when doing so (ninth-fewest).

For an additional player prop, I like Kenneth Gainwell to go OVER 10.5 rushing yards. His coaches have been adamant about getting him more snaps this week (S/O to the @CoachSpeakIndex Discord), and Gainwell has hit this number in back-to-back games. The Panthers’ run defense is poor - allowing the most yards per carry (5.1) in the NFL, along with the most yards after contact per attempt.

Props

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: 49ers -2.5

Trends

  • As a road favorite (its role here), San Francisco hasn’t been in that role yet in 2026. Overall: across all road games, 1-0 ATS and 1-0 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U.
  • As a home underdog (its role here), Atlanta is 0-2 ATS (0%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026. Overall: across all home games, 0-3 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 2-3 ATS and 3-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-4 ATS and 4-2 O/U.
  • San Francisco streaks through Week 6: 6-0 straight up (six-game win streak), 4-2 against the spread (one-game non-cover streak), 3-3 toward the total (one-game Under streak).
  • Atlanta streaks through Week 6: 2-4 straight up (two-game losing streak), 2-4 against the spread (two-game non-cover streak), 4-2 toward the total (four-game Over streak).
  • San Francisco is coming off a 23-17 home win over Washington as a 7.5-point favorite, but failed to cover (Week 6; Monday night). Atlanta comes in off a 31-23 home loss to Chicago as a 1.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 6).
  • Days between games: San Francisco has 6 and Atlanta has 7.
  • San Francisco is 1-0 ATS in true road games in 2026 (a 32-29 win at Seattle in Week 5 as a 3-point underdog; the neutral-site Week 1 game against the Rams is excluded).
  • Atlanta is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games and 0-3 ATS at home in 2026. The Falcons are 8-2-1 ATS as an underdog since 2025.
  • Atlanta has gone Over the total in four straight games (Weeks 3 through 6), averaging 56.3 combined points in those games (49, 69, 53 and 54).
  • San Francisco is 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6); Atlanta is 2-4 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 1 through 2026 Week 6).

Injuries

Overall

No player is tied closer to National TE’s Day than 49ers TE George Kittle. If you are looking to fire on any player props or anytime TDs…look no further than Kittle. The 49ers TE has scored at least one TD in his last 6 appearances when the 49ers have been favored. Given all the injuries to the 49ers WRs…Kittle kaboom on National TE’s Day seems inevitable. Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel both did not practice on Friday, and neither will play in Week 7.

Seth gave out the 49ers -2.5 as one of his best bets for Week 7…and I didn’t have much pushback. The Falcons are extremely overrated at home (0-3 ATS at home this season, 3-8 ATS at home since 2025), whereas the 49ers remain undefeated (also 6-0 ATS as a road favorite since 2025).

Props

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