NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Primer: Patriots vs Bears Picks

Welcome back to another edition of our NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Primer.

Let’s break down the sides and totals to see what’s the best angle to bet on for TNF.

Spoiler. I want all the A.J. Brown WR1 szn props on Thursday Night Football. AJB WR1 szn. Delayed… but never denied.

LFG.

League-wide in 2026: Prime-Time Highlight (Through Week 6)

League-wide in 2026, Thursday-night underdogs are 5-1 ATS (six games, including the Melbourne opener).
Favorites are 1-5; the O/U is 3-3.
Across all 19 prime-time games (Wed opener, TNF, SNF and MNF), underdogs are 14-4-1 ATS and favorites 4-14-1.
Home teams are 10-7-1 and road teams 7-10-1, and the O/U is 9-10.
The 10-game underdog cover streak (all 10 won outright) ended when Dallas failed to cover at Green Bay (WAS covered versus SF but lost outright last Monday Night Football).
The Under has hit in the last 3 prime-time games.

NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Primer: New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears Picks

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: First Quarter Total OVER 9.5 points

Trends

As a road underdog (the role they play here), NE is 1-1-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U in 2026 (A push at Seattle, a non-cover at Jacksonville, and a cover at Buffalo). Overall: across all road games, 1-1-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-1-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-2-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U.
As a home favorite (the role they play here), CHI is 1-1 ATS and 0-2 O/U in 2026 (A Week 2 loss to Minnesota and a Week 4 cover against the Jets). Overall: across all home games, 2-1 ATS and 0-3 O/U (the Week 3 home win over Philadelphia came as an underdog); across all games as a favorite, 3-2 ATS and 2-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-2 ATS and 2-4 O/U.
NE streaks through Week 6: 4-2 straight up (3-game win streak), 3-2-1 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 3-3 toward the total (3-game Over streak). CHI streaks through Week 6: 4-2 straight up (1-game win streak), 4-2 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 2-4 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
Both teams are on a short week. New England beat the Jets 26-19 at home as a 7.5-point favorite (a win by exactly 7, so the cover depends on the number); Chicago won 31-23 at Atlanta as a 1.5-point road favorite.
Dating back to the start of the 2024 season, the Bears are 8-4 ATS as a home favorite and 14-6-1 ATS at home overall (24-16-2 ATS in all games since 2024). 9-4 ATS at home since 2025, 5-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Chicago’s home games lean toward the Under: 7-14 O/U at home since 2024, including all three 2026 home games (closing totals of 48.5, 44.5 and 43.5, all Unders cashing). This game’s total of roughly 50 is higher than any Bears home game this season, and New England has gone Over in three straight (but 1-2 O/U on the road this season).
7 of the last 8 Bears’ home games have gone UNDER the total.
With Caleb Williams starting (Weeks 1, 2, and 6; he missed Weeks 3-5 with a hamstring injury), Chicago is 2-1 ATS and 2-1 toward the Over. In the three games without him, the Bears were 2-1 ATS and 3-0 toward the Under.
Dating back to the 2025 season, New England is 10-3 straight up and 8-3-2 ATS in true road games (neutral-site games excluded). They have covered the spread in six of their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning record.

Injuries

#Bears Injury Report

The Chicago Bears conducted a walk-thru on Wednesday, participation is an estimation. pic.twitter.com/7AxH13To8X

— Bears Communications (@BearsPR) October 21, 2026

Patriots Wednesday injury report & game statuses for NE vs. CHI: https://t.co/iTcLSoiFXR pic.twitter.com/x1FBOVyvR3

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 21, 2026

Betting Preview

We’re all aware of how well the underdogs have performed this NFL season on prime time. 14-4-1 ATS record with a 12-7 record straight up (4-1 straight up on Thursday Night Football).

If you want to just take that trend with the road New England Patriots (8-3-1 ATS on the road since 2025), I totally get it. But as I pushed back against backing the Pats on the road playing in Jacksonville in Week 3, I have very similar reservations about them in this spot.

The Bears (like the Jaguars) have been great versus the number in the Caleb Williams era at Soldier Field. They boast the 4th-best home record ATS since Ben Johnson became the HC, and 3rd-best since Williams was drafted.

I think this point spread is tight and pretty spot on at 3 points (although my lean is toward the Bears laying 2.5 to win by a FG, but I could really see it go either way). If you could get Patriots +3.5, I’d probably change my stance

The Patriots’ offensive line is banged up with two starters ruled out. Matt Pryor and Walter Rouse will start at both guard spots (Ben Brown was already the No. 2 OG filling in for starter Mike Onwenu).

Bad O-Lines don’t tend to travel well. Now the offensive tackles should be fine (Morgan Moses is iffy, but rookie OT Caleb Lomu can easily plug in if he can’t go or is re-injured), and center Jared Wilson has been playing very well (Wilson is No.1 in ESPN’s IOL Pass Block Win Rate).

So the Patriots’ pass protection game should still be okay – especially given the matchup versus a dreadful Bears defense.

Per Next Gen Stats, Drake Maye has been pressured on 39.5% of his dropbacks since Week 4, nearly identical to his 41.0% rate in Weeks 1-3 (7th-highest pressure rate faced this season). However, Maye has been sacked on just two of 45 pressures since Week 4 (4.4%), the lowest pressure-to-sack rate among qualified passers in that span. Through Week 3, he was sacked on nine of 41 pressures (22.0%). The Bears defense has a 24.3% pressure-to-sack rate this season, the highest rate in the NFL. But their overall pressure rate ranks 13th.

Still, interior OL breakdowns can’t be completely ignored. I question how effective the Patriots’ ground game will be behind a compromised offensive line.

As for how their defense matches up versus the Bears’ offense…I don’t love it. NE’s defense plays so much better against teams that have one No. 1 WR who they can slow down with CB Christian Gonzalez. Not the case with Chicago’s offense that features so much depth across all the skill positions.

The Bears offense also plays a ton of bully ball in an effort to “hide” their defense. They control time of possession (league-high 60% TOP) with their rushing attack, which no defense has been able to slow down (besides Green Bay).

If Chicago can keep Maye off the field, I think that can limit New England’s scoring potential.

Which leads me to my sides/total full game pick. The under at 50.5 points. Last week’s ATL-CHI game barely got over the total (54 points) on the back of two late Falcons TD passes (the game doesn’t hit the over if not for a converted 2-point play on the Falcons’ second-to-last possession).

The Bears defense is bad, no doubt, but a banged-up OL on a short week has me pressing pause on this being a 50-point scoring bonanza shootout. Chicago home games trend toward the under.

But if we are talking just sheer favorite bets…here’s a fun one. First quarter OVER 9.5 points.

Per Next Gen Stats, Drake Maye has averaged 0.49 EPA per dropback on opening drives this season, the second-highest mark, after averaging 0.19 on opening drives last season. The Bears have allowed 7.0 yards per play on opening drives this season, the second-most in the NFL. The Bears forced a turnover on 56.3% of opponents’ opening drives last season, the highest rate by any team since at least 2017, but have not forced one this season.

Both offenses rank top-5 in first-quarter points (combined for 13.3 first-quarter points per game, combined 26 first-half PPG). The Bears have scored on their first or second possession in each of Williams’ three starts this season (two first-possession touchdowns and one second-possession FG versus Minnesota).

A.J. Brown caught 3 of 10 targets for 27 yards in Week 6 against the Jets for a catch rate 36.4% below expected, including two dropped passes. Needless to say, it was a rough showing.

But the usage was elite. He ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks in his first game action since suffering a high ankle sprain in Week 1. And I didn't feel like watching this game; Brown looked like he was playing hurt, more rusty than anything else. His 10 targets (31.3% target share) were the most by any New England player this season. But again, he only caught three of them for 27 yards - that 30.0% catch rate, -36.4% catch rate over expected, and 6.3% success rate were all the lowest marks by a player with at least 10 targets in a game this season, according to Next Gen Stats. Brown dropped two of those targets (one of which would have been a 61-yard touchdown), which ties the most by a WR in a game this season. Brown also went 0-for-4 on third and fourth down and 0-for-3 in the red zone. He scored 12 fantasy points UNDER expectation.

This is such an obvious bounce-back spot versus a defense that has been BUNS against the deep ball (31st in EPA/attempt faced on passes of 20-plus air yards).

Seven of Brown’s 10 targets came while he was lined up on the right side of the formation, forecasting a matchup with Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson. Johnson has played left cornerback on 91.8% of snaps this season and has allowed 284 yards on downfield targets, the third-most among cornerbacks.

Brown has had 100 or more receiving yards in all three of his career games against the Bears, including a career-high 181 in his only career road game in Chicago (Week 15, 2022). Brown averages 138.0 receiving yards per game against Chicago, the third most all-time among players to have played at least three games vs. the Bears.

In 2025, Brown caught 10 of 12 targets for 132 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears.

Take the over on his receiving yardage and his TD props (3 red-zone targets last week). Chicago has allowed 160 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs (72 per game to No. 1s), with 6 going for 70-plus.

On the Bears side, I am honing in on the Bears’ second-year WR Luther Burden.

Last week, Burden caught 8 of 8 for a team-high 95 yards (20.0% adjusted target share, from 17.1% in Week 5). Via Next Gen Stats: Burden ran 18 routes, the sixth most on the team, and earned 83 of his 95 yards against zone (6.4 yards per route against zone, a career high). His 42.4% snap share was the lowest of his season, but his 5.3 yards per route was one of the ten best marks by a player with at least 15 routes in a game this season.

The route participation was a season-low (45%), but it's great to see him hyper-targeted by Williams even on a limited route tree. Burden leads the Bears in targets this season and is averaging 2.3 yards per route run. Also has 9 red-zone targets to go with at least 4 catches and 47 receiving yards in 5 of 6 games played this season (including 2 of three games with Williams as the starter going over 60 yards in both contests). The Pats have given up a ton of production to non-WR1s this season, allowing the 5th-most targets and most yards per game (78.6) to opposing No. 2 WRs.