We’ve had five consecutive profitable weeks on our NFL Thursday Night Football TD scorers picks after cashing in on J.K. Dobbins’ anytime touchdown odds in Week 6.
This week’s Patriots-Bears tilt features two quarterbacks who have either been hot over the last couple of weeks (Drake Maye) or taken their offense to new heights when healthy (Caleb Williams).
That makes for a rare Thursday Night Football game with a total in the 50s, and it’s why I’m excited to back a Patriots player’s anytime touchdown odds, while also adding a play on who will score the game’s first touchdown.
Here are the best touchdown scorer picks for Week 7’s Thursday Night Football contest between the Patriots and Bears.
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NFL Thursday Night Football TD Scorers Picks: Patriots vs. Bears
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
D’Andre Swift First Touchdown Scorer (+600)
D’Andre Swift scored two touchdowns last week despite being outgained by Roschon Johnson, but he showed his versatility out of the backfield with four receptions on five targets. With fellow running back Kyle Monangai likely unavailable again on a short week to steal goal-line touches, Swift’s value for crossing the goal line rises even more.
Chicago’s offense ranks 12th in points per game (25.0 PPG) despite averaging just 19 points in Weeks 3-5. That is because the team scores 33 points per game when Caleb Williams starts, and his availability raises Chicago’s chances of taking the early lead.
The Bears have led on 48.1% of their offensive possessions (the sixth-highest rate) and have the highest rate of rushing touchdowns (72.2%). This is a better matchup for Swift out of the backfield than for Chicago’s receivers, as New England ranks 18th in yards per carry allowed to running backs and 21st in explosive run rate allowed.
Swift was involved early and often last week, securing 16 of the team’s 21 backfield touches in the first half and a 77.5% snap share. All of that points to the game’s most likely touchdown scorer (-155 odds) being the first to punch it into the end zone.
Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+230)
In Drake Maye’s first three games, he logged a 49 total quarterback rating, averaged 195 passing yards per game and recorded a 1:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has heated up, posting a league-high 91 total quarterback rating over the last three games, averaging 293 passing yards, and recording a 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Maye has specifically gotten much more production on throws outside the pocket. Over the first three weeks, he had a 29 total quarterback rating and a 0:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio on such throws. His total quarterback rating rose to 90 on such throws with a 2:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the last three.
Maye’s improvement has also helped Hunter Henry. When targeting Henry over the first three games, Maye had a total quarterback rating of eight with 24 passing yards per game and zero touchdowns. Over the last three, Maye has a 99 total quarterback rating, 51 passing yards per game and a 2:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio when targeting Henry.
After a game in which the Bears allowed two touchdowns to Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts, Henry’s anytime touchdown odds are great.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.