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NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Week 9)

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The meat of the Week 9 schedule brings our biggest board yet - plenty of actionable lines, soft totals, and several quarterback storylines to monitor.
We'll keep targeting teams off byes, defenses trending down, and market over-corrections after public overreactions in Week 8.

And as always, the data speaks for itself:

5-Star Props through Week 9

  • Win Rate: 59.22%
  • ROI: +13.74%
  • Total Units Won: +105.12
  • Total Bets: 765

Yardage Props (91 bets) ?' 70.33% hit rate | +36.02% ROI | +32.78 units

It's been another profitable stretch, and we'll lean on that same prop-first approach across Sunday's matchups - identifying inefficiencies in player usage, tempo, and defensive splits before the lines tighten.

The official plays are up to 24-22-1 so far through eight weeks. We are officially over .500…LFG. Here’s to not pissing it all away in Week 9. Keep in mind the favorites smashed in a big way last week. Per Evan Abrams of the Action Network…Favorites went 11-2 ATS (84.6%) in Week 8 — the best win pct for favorites in a single week since Dec. of 1985.

All 11 favorites covered by 7+ pts in Week 8, most in a single week in the last 30 years.

After another big favorite covered on Thursday night to kick things off in Week 9…I’d expect we see some perky underdogs to show up. We are definitely getting overinflated favorites.

Top-5 Best Bets:

  • Lions Team Total Over 28.5 points
  • Bills' Team Total Over 25.5
  • Rams/Saints – Under 43.5
  • Colts ML + Jonathan Taylor anytime TD
  • Texans/Broncos Under 40.5

Top Player Props:

Anytime TD Bets:

Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)

Erickson's Pick: GB -12.5
Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Trends:

  • The Packers are 0-2-1 O/U at home this season.
  • The Panthers have lost each of their last nine road games before a division game.
  • The Panthers have lost 18 of their last 21 road games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in six of the Packers' last eight games.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in 7 of their last 12 games as favorites.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 21-4-1 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 17-9 ATS. Green Bay is 5-14 ATS when they allowed 23+ points on defense.
  • Since 2023, the Packers are 8-5 ATS as a home favorite.
  • Four of the Panthers’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Panthers have covered 8 straight as underdogs following a loss.
  • The Panthers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 16 games as underdogs.

Overall:

I don't like to bet the Panthers on the road.

Even though we are getting Bryce Young instead of Andy Dalton, I'm fine laying a big number with Green Bay.

A high-ankle QB behind that banged-up Carolina OL vs Micah Parsons and the rush is scary. Young is 2-15 on the road as a starter. 6-14-1 ATS (30%).

I think the Steelers’ win was a "turning point" game for the Packers - this profiles as a roll spot.

GB is also better at covering the spread at home versus the road.

And as I have pointed out...the Packers cover when their defense shows up (under 23 points allowed). Young has scored 23 points on the road twice in his NFL career.

Yes, Carolina does qualify as a "Close Your Eyes Special" as a team that got blown out by 21-plus to catch a touchdown or more the following week. But that trend is about more of an overreaction by the market. GB was always going to be laying double-digit points to Carolina regardless.

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)
Erickson's Pick: Lions Team Total over 28.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

  • The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last nine games against the Vikings.
  • The Lions have been the first to 30 points in each of their last five games against the Vikings.
  • The Lions have won each of their last nine games as favorites against opponents on a losing streak.
  • The average total in the Lions’ last 32 home games has been 55.1 points; 69% (22/32) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Seven of the Lions' last 10 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Lions’ last 19 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Lions are 14-5 ATS with rest advantage since 2021 (74%) - Also 15-4 towards the over (79%).
  • Each of the Vikings’ last five games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Vikings have lost the first half in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread or win outright as an underdog following a loss in six straight games (also lost the first half).
  • The Vikings have covered the spread in 7 of their last 13 games.
  • All but 13 of the Vikings' last 39 games have been decided by eight points or fewer (76%).

Overall:

My lean is to the over in Detroit. The spread feels big for a divisional game, but the Lions, off a bye, should push 30 points on the board.

Brian Flores' boom-bust defense can get burned when blitzes don't hit. If we get a somewhat functional JJ McCarthy, that's enough variance to clear a mid-high total indoors. Vikings also a candidate for yet another “Close Your Eyes Special.”

But because there is so much unknown with McCarthy (pseudo-rookie QB making a road start after missing so much time with an injury against a much healthier Detroit defense), I'll opt for the Lions going over their team total at 28.5 points (while still leaning toward the entire game also going over).

The Lions are allowing the 7th-highest passing TD rate. Justin Jefferson is just 17th in fantasy PPG despite ranking 5th in receiving yards (only one TD).

Props:

Cincinnati Bengals vs Chicago Bears - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)
Erickson's Pick: Bears Team Total over 26.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

  • Ten of the Bengals’ last 11 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Bengals have lost five of their last six games.
  • Jake Browning has played better at home than on the road. 6-3 as a starter at home…1-7 on the road. Also, much better ATS. Including the Jaguars' win earlier this season, Browning is 3-2-1 ATS at home versus 1-4 ATS on the road.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Bears have lost nine of their last 10 road games against teams that held a losing record.

Overall: This line looked wrong when Joe and I scoped out the lines on the lookahead show on Monday - I power-rated the Bengals as small home favorites.

Chicago's defense is also bad, and I'll buy the bounce-back after the Jets’ loss. My one caveat was that I want Joe Flacco confirmed healthy: if it's Jake Browning, I'm out.

News breaks on Tuesday that Flacco was 50/50 to play. Woof. Now the reports on Saturday are that he’s expected to play...so my lean is still Cincy on the ML for the value-strictly a value proposition...not a confidence play.

The Bears tend to play much worse on the road than at home – especially in the Caleb Williams era – boasting just a 3-9 record straight up. 4-7-1 ATS as road underdog (and road in general).

I had no problem crossing off the Bengals game last week and I think I'll do the same again.

Confidence level with a banged-up Flacco is non-existent. And let's not forget how completely terrible BOTH of these defenses are.

My most confidence in this game is a breakout performance for Colston Loveland. Bengals are the league's worst defense vs TEs...and all of the other Bears WRs/TEs are dealing with injuries.

Also love the Bengals RBs in this spot. A solid ground game keeps Flacco upright and/or helps Browning from turning the ball over.

Chase Brown has 73 yards or more in two straight games. The Bears defense also ranked 30th in YPA allowed this season (5.3). allowing the 6th-most rushing yards.

I will say that even though I don’t like either sides or the full game total…the Bears Team Total is interesting. Cincy has allowed at least 27 points in all but one game they have played this season.

Props:

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)Erickson's Pick: Under 40.5
Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Texans have scored the first touchdown in seven of their last eight home games.
  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games before a Division game.
  • The Broncos have won each of their last five games.
  • Bo Nix is 5-6-1 ATS as an underdog...Just 3-7 straight up as a road dog.
  • Seven of the Broncos’ last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Denver is 5-3 toward the under this season.
  • Five of the last six games between the Broncos and Texans have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Texans are 0-3 O/U at home this season (35.3 PPG)
  • 17 of the Texans’ last 25 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Texans' last 23 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • 11 of the Texans’ last 12 games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Since 2023, Houston is 6-7-1 as a home favorite ATS (sub-50%).

Overall:

I lean Texans and the under at home. Houston's defense is elite (and historically stingy at home), and this is the classic "look great vs DAL, regress vs real D" spot for Bo Nix.

Teams are 1-1-5 toward the over in their game following a matchup versus Dallas.

CB Pat Surtain's health matters for the total and I don't love that he is not going to play. But even without Surtain for a large portion of last week, the Broncos defense held the Cowboys’ starting offense to just 17 points before a garbage time TD.

Conversely, it looks like Nico Collins will make his return to the lineup after missing last week with a concussion. Even so...the Texans/under is my best angle for this contest. Houston is 0-4 in close games this season, while Denver is 4-2 in close games.

Also, I might entertain teasing these lines. Move Texans to +3.5 and take the game total under 46.5 points (-110 DK). Gives me the best lines I the angles I like most.

Per Next Gen Stats...

The Broncos have totaled 210 rushing yards over expected on designed runs this season, the most in the NFL.

They've averaged 1.4 yards before contact per carry on such carries, the 10th-most in the NFL. In Week 8 against the Cowboys, they averaged 3.2 yards before contact per designed run, the 11th-most of any team in a game this season (min. 15 designed runs). The Texans have allowed just 0.4 yards before contact per carry on designed runs this season, the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

Additionally, the Broncos defense has generated a pressure on 45.9% of dropbacks this season, at least 6.0% more than any other team this season.

Nik Bonitto leads the league with a 24.0% pressure rate, at least 3.8% more than any other player (min. 100 pass rushes). Jonathon Cooper's 18.5% pressure rate is 6th in the league. The Texans have allowed a 31.1% pressure rate this season, 12th-lowest in the NFL. In Week 8 against the 49ers, they allowed pressure on just 21.4% of dropbacks, at least 6.7% lower than they've allowed in any other game this season.

I love the under in this game...so therefore I am very much looking for player prop unders.

Last week, one of my best player props (courtesy of the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet) was J.K. Dobbins under 16.5 carries. How the under cashed when Denver curb-stomped Dallas with a positive game script is beyond me.

But that's why we trust the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet and the 5-star bets.

This week...it's the RJ Harvey carry under. He only has 6 carries in 3 of his 8 games played this season. And they have been in positive game script situations (home versus TEN, CIN and DAL).

Keep in mind that last week, it took Harvey two carries on the Broncos' final drive in the fourth quarter to go over 5.5 carries.

Slam the under.

Props:

New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)
Erickson's Pick: Giants +2.5
Confidence: ★★☆☆☆

Trends:

  • Five of the 49ers' last seven road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Giants have won their last two home games outright as underdogs (3-1 ATS at home this season)
  • Since 2022, the Giants are 14-10-1 as home underdogs.
  • Big Blue at home: 17-12-1 ATS since 2022.

Overall:

Likely a stay-away spot until we know who's actually playing for SF. This team is so injured on both sides of the ball. Brock Purdy won’t start and I don't think it would move the needle much at all on this game from a sides/total perspective anyway.

The Giants also keep losing weapons/defensive personnel, while the 49ers' defense has been completely gutted.

With Jaxson Dart starting at home, there's upset volatility based on his performance this season.

See no value on the bloated total based on injuries on defense...so my lean is with New York catching points at home. Dart has been better at home this season, and has face much tougher defenses this season. The Giants team total at 23.5 is also enticing...

The 49ers have allowed 23-plus points on defense in four of their last five games.

Wan'Dale Robinson was quiet last week- with zero catches in the first half. He finished with just three catches for 48 yards on four targets.

Robinson’s numbers/targets reduce dramatically with Darius Slayton back in the lineup.

19% target share versus 29% target share. Last two games he is under 5.5 catches. Robinson has not gone over this number in a game started by Dart that Slayton also played.

The target share has been much flatter with Theo Johnson and Slayton active in the lineup.

Props:

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)
Erickson's Pick: Colts -3 (Colts ML + Jonathan Taylor anytime TD)
Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Trends:

  • The Colts have won the first half in each of their last six games as favorites.
  • The Colts, as favorites, are 8-4 ATS since the start of 2024.
  • The Colts are 16-2 as favorites straight up since the start of 2023.
  • Shane Steichen owns the second-best record ATS as a favorite (67%, 12-6).
  • 10 of the Colts' last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 12 games.
  • The Steelers as home underdogs since 2023: 6-4 ATS (60%). 10-5-1 since 2021.
  • The Steelers are 5-2 toward the over this season. All of their non-divisional home games have gone over the total

Overall:

I prefer Colts -3. The usual "Tomlin as a dog" trend is built on good defenses, and this Steelers defense definitely isn't one.

Meanwhile, Shane Steichen has actually carried over his impressive record ATS as a favorite into the 2025 season.

Indy's OL/run game with Jonathan Taylor travels well. Matchup and trends lean toward the road team.

The Colts are 10-2 straight up as favorites since the start of last season (16-2 since the start of 2023).

I also like the game total going over.

However, if you can’t find any Colts -2.5s or -3s (depending where the lines close)…make this bet instead.

Colts ML and Jonathan Taylor anytime TD. Somehow…this is +100.

Colts -3 was my one of my bets bets on Week 9 best bet show…but I definitely like this angle more to avoid a push at 3 points. If JT doesn’t score (or gets hurt), the Colts probably aren’t winning this game anyway.

Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)
Erickson's Pick: Tease Chargers -2.5/Under 47.5
Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Trends:

  • The Titans are 3-0 toward the over at home this season (52.3 PPG)
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 11 home games.
  • Each of the Chargers’ last three games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 road games.
  • Chargers’ road games on the East Coast tend to go UNDER the projected total.
  • Since the start of 2024, when they have played on the East Coast, the point totals have been 39, 29, 30, 37, 30, 47 and 56. 2-5 O/U.
  • The Bolts are also 4-0 under Jim Harbaugh with a rest advantage.

Overall: Chargers win, but I'm not comfortable laying near double digits on the road. I can't get past this West Coast-East Coast travel. Typically these have been lower-scoring affairs - so I think that might be my best angle.

Terrifies me that the Chargers are 0-2 ATS on the road this season - failing to cover by 5.5 and 3.5 points.

As for the total....Harbaugh's Chargers on East Coast/early kicks have skewed under.

The Titans are looking ahead to 2026, as they are selling all their assets before next week's trade deadline.

Another game I'd prefer to tease. Bring the Chargers down to -2.5 (win by a FG) and bring the total up to 47.5 and go under. (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook). Also good opportunity to live bet Bolts as they might be sleepwalking in the first half of this game.

Ward has over 20.5 completions in 5 out of 6 games.

Props:

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)
Erickson's Pick: Live Bet Patriots
Confidence: ★★☆☆☆

Trends:

  • The Patriots have covered the spread in five straight games.
  • The Patriots have conceded the first touchdown in each of their last six games as home favorites.
  • The Patriots have been the first to 20 points in each of their last five games.
  • 8 of the Patriots' last 10 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight road games.
  • The Falcons on the road since the start of 2023: 6-12-1 ATS. 1-2 ATS this season.
  • Eight of the Falcons’ last nine games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Early in the week, I liked the Patriots at home. Drake Maye is dealing, the crowd's heating up again, and Atlanta's defense has regressed with injuries. Treyvon Henderson flashing last week adds another gear to this offense.

However, Terrell Furman Jr. has once again got inside my ear...as this is a "Close Your Eyes Special."

This was one of Furman’s best bets for Week 9 – and I think his logic was very sound.

“Atlanta can attack New England where it's soft-RBs in coverage. The Pats are 25th in DVOA vs. RBs in the pass game, so this sets up as a Bijan game to keep it tight late.”

Tailing TF on the B-Rob receiving yards prop. Over in 5/7 games this season, and the Pats gave up solid receiving games to the likes of Alvin Kamara and Tony Pollard – both who went over 40 receiving yards.

This matchup overall definitely feels like a “Close Your Eyes Special”, considering the total EGG the Dirty Birds laid last week.

This line has moved nearly 3.5 points since last week.

Now I'm never "ON" betting Atlanta on the road. Because this dome team looks and plays like a dome team on the road.

I will say that I like their odds with Michael Penix Jr. set to play, alongside some of their other WRs such as Drake London.

I think if you like the Pats, wait until this game starts. They haven't been great in the first half at home this season, so you might get a better number if Atlanta strikes first (they typically like to start with the ball on offense). Feel comfortable laying 2.5 or 3.5 points (closer to what this line was before Week 8 played out). And I guess that means if I am forced to bet this pre-game… I have to take the Falcons (woof).

Atlanta's season-long defensive numbers look good, but they have dealt with a ton of injuries in the last two weeks that have left that unit vulnerable.

So why sweat the sides...when you can just bet Maye's passing TDs?

Maye has thrown two or more touchdowns in six of the Patriots’ last seven games. The Patriots have heavily relied on their passing game this season, with the RBs struggling to take off in most matchups. Rhamondre Stevenson is banged up, which could put more emphasis on QB passes. 3 of the last 4 QBs to face the Falcons have thrown for at least 2 TD passes - including four from Tua Tagovailoa last week.

Per Next Gen Stats: The Falcons have blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL this season (48.1%), averaging 5.3 pressures a game (T-4th-most) and 1.4 sacks per game (3rd-most) when sending five or more rushers.

Maye has completed 13.9% more passes against the blitz than expected, a league-leading mark, generating 624 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 42 first downs when doing so.

If Tua could shred this defense vs the blitz...so will Maye.

Props:

Las Vegas Raiders vs Jacksonville Jaguars - Sunday, 4:05 PM ET (CBS)
Erickson's Pick: Under 44.5 (lean Raiders +2.5)
Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Trends:

  • The Raiders have lost each of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs (0-4 in last four games).
  • The Raiders have conceded the first touchdown in each of their last four games as underdogs.
  • The Raiders are 15-11-1 ATS at home over their last 27 games.
  • They are 5-7-1 as home underdogs ATS but just 2-9 straight up.
  • The Raiders have lost 6 straight as home underdogs
  • 10 of the Raiders’ last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 11-6 overall as a favorite, dating back to 2023 (9-7 ATS).

Overall:

Both teams are coming off byes so schematic tweaks are coming. If forced, I think I'd grab the Raiders as home underdogs with Brock Bowers returning at full health and Ashton Jeanty emerging as the focal point of the Raiders offense.

But this is a value proposition bet. As this game SCREAMS a four range-of-outcomes stay-away. Both these QBs rank top-7 in turnover-worthy plays. Travis Hunter is out for Jacksonville. And the Jags' defense has basically just feasted on turnovers this season.

At least this is how I felt early in the week.

The only trend backing the Raiders is the game total going under...although they do qualify as a "Close Your Eyes Special" given the last time we saw them, they got boat-raced by the Chiefs.

The Jags? Also got demolished the last time they played.

Now they were facing one of the best NFL teams as underdogs...but still. Trevor Lawrence still looks all out of sync in Liam Coen's offense. Maybe that changes over the bye week - as that’s what this line suggests will happen. But with Hunter just placed on IR…vibes seem off here.

And, this matchup is bad for Lawrence.

Per Next Gen Stats...Trevor Lawrence has completed only 125 of 209 passes for 1,253 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions against zone coverage this season.

His 59.8% completion percentage against zone coverage is the lowest in the NFL, while his passer rating of 73.7 is the 5th-lowest. The Raiders have deployed zone coverage on 84.0% of opponent dropbacks this season, the 3rd-highest rate in the league.

Not to mention, all of his WRs seemingly popped up on the injury report...after the bye week. Not good.

The matchup isn't great for Geno Smith either. Per NGS...Smith has completed 23 of 60 passes for 537 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a league-high-tying 8 interceptions on downfield throws (10+ air yards).

He has registered a passer rating of 48.4 on such passes, the lowest by any qualified quarterback in a season since 2020 (Dwayne Haskins, 28.0). The Jaguars defense has held quarterbacks to a 43.5% completion rate (4th-lowest), a 72.2 passer rating (7th-lowest), and 7 interceptions (tied for most in NFL) on downfield passes.

I like the value with the Raiders, but I just don't have a ton of confidence in either team coming out of the bye week with all their problems fixed.

Either bet the Raiders as home dogs with their best player back in action (Bowers) or just take the game total under at 44 points.

Or just bet the props.

Bhayshul Tuten is fully healthy out of the bye week and I expect him to eat into Etienne's workload. ETN has finished under 14.5 carries in three straight games and the Raiders have only allowed one RB to surpass 16 carries against them this season (Jonathan Taylor).

Props:

Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET (FOX)
Erickson's Pick: Under 44.5
Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • Since 2023, the Rams are 3-9 O/U as home favorites (25%)
  • Five of the Rams' last six games as home favorites has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Rams’ last 11 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games at SoFi Stadium when playing with a rest advantage.
  • The Rams are also 0-4 ATS since 2021 after a bye week.
  • The Saints have lost each of their last 12 games as underdogs.
  • Each of the Saints’ last four games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • According to VSIN…Rookie quarterbacks have struggled for bettors as early-season starters, going 6-26-1 SU and 12-20-1 ATS (36%) in their last 24 week 1-3 games. They are also on a 29-12 Under the total run in their last 41 such contests (dating back to 2024).
  • Rookie QBs are below 50% ATS on the road. As small road dogs…are 42% ATS when catching +4.5 or fewer.
  • 10 of the Saints' last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Saints are 30th in red zone scoring this season.
  • The Rams rank 1st in red zone scoring defense.

Overall:

Earlier in the week, I felt like I wanted to attack points rather than sides - leaning toward the over and/or Rams team total.

The Saints will drop back 40-50 times no matter what, which invites back-door volatility on a big spread.

The Rams tend to be massively overvalued at home, but it's impossible to ignore how profitable it is to bet against rookie QBs. But it's still more than two TDs. Even against Tyler Shough making his first NFL start...it feels like a lot of points to lay.

Especially after the Rams just killed the Jags...we might have some recency bias playing a factor here.

Because before the Jags game, the Rams played the Ravens' backup defense and scored 17 points. The London game was just the second time this season the Rams scored 30-plus points.

If this game were in New Orleans, I'd be backing the home squad. But on the road (even in LA, where there's not really a home-field advantage), I think I prefer the game total under.

Easy to paint a picture of how the Saints’ offense struggles versus a fierce Rams defense.

But for the Rams...they know they don't need to score a billion points to win this game.

And typically, when they are playing at home as favorites...these games go under the total. Even the last time LA played as a home favorite (Week 5 vs SF), that game needed overtime to go over the 47.5 point total.

Best bet for this game? Under 44.5 points. Since 2023, the Rams are 3-9 O/U as home favorites (25%).

Matthew Stafford has attempted 33.5 or fewer passes in 5/7 games this season. And that is despite LA ranking third in pass rate over expectation (+3.4%).

Only two QBs the Saints have faced this season have gone over their passing yards props and surpassed 33.5 attempts.

New Orleans is facing the league's second-highest run rate - with teams rushing on over 50% of their plays against this defense.

5-star bet on the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. Trust the process.

Props:

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET (CBS)
Erickson's Pick: Bills' Team Total over 25.5
Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Bills have won 13 of their last 14 home games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home games against teams that held a winning record (4-0 as home underdogs straight up).
  • The Bills have covered the spread in 14 of their last 18 games.
  • The Bills have been the first to 10 points in each of their last five games against the Chiefs.
  • The Bills beat the Chiefs at home in 2024 by nine points.  The game went over the 46-point total and Buffalo easily covered.
  • Bills have scored 30+ points in 15 of their previous 20 games with their starters playing.  5 of 7 games this season, they have scored 30-plus.
  • The last time they were held under 25 points at home. KC in the 2023 playoffs, Patriots the last two times and versus Denver in the middle of November in 2023.
  • Bills averaged 29.5 points in last two matchups versus KC.
  • Each of the last three games between the Chiefs and Bills have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall: In these coin-flip heavyweight games, I either take the home dog (Bills) or I bet the over and enjoy Mahomes vs Allen. KC’s offense looks "back," and Buffalo home games have leaned to higher scoring. I'll prioritize total first, then sides (which will likely come down to who has the last possession in the game).

Buffalo routinely scores 30 PPG at home and I expect them to be aggressive offensively.

They have averaged ~29.5 points in the last two vs. KC, and 15 of the last 20 full-starter games have hit 30+. I expect fourth-down aggression and touchdowns over field goals from Joe Brady’s play-calling.

The Bills are allowing highest rushing TD rate this season.

Death, taxes and Kareem Hunt anytime TDs. Don’t fight it. Just embrace it.

Rashee Rice was electric last week, catching all nine of his targets for 93 yards and a touchdown while adding two carries for 12 yards. Rice was inches away from an even BIGGER day - he was ruled down at the 1-yard line on one rushing attempt and narrowly missed scoring twice more in the red zone. He finished second on the team in routes run (31, 86% snap rate) and logged three more red-zone opportunities, continuing his ascension as Mahomes' most dangerous after-the-catch threat.

He has 7-plus catches in back-to-back games to go with a league-leading 40% target rate. Dating back to last season he only has one game played in full with fewer than seven grabs.

Buffalo has allowed 7-plus catches to opposing No. 1s in three straight games…

Brashard Smith cooked me last week. Zero catches after going for 2.5 in four straight. But with Isiah Pacheco out…I am going back to the rookie RB.

Props:

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