NFL Futures: Best Bets Following the 2020 NFL Draft

by Mike Spector |
May 01, 2020

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The NFL draft has come and gone, and with it came significant odds movement across a variety of different markets. It remains to be seen what kind of impact COVID-19 will have on the preseason or even the regular season. Either way, now is a great time to jump on futures bets before the odds go against our favor.

We have scoured through the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to identify our five best bets to lock in now following the NFL draft.

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NFC Championship: New Orleans Saints (+650)

The Saints have seen their season end in brutal fashion with home playoff losses each of the past two years. The perennial NFC favorites enter the 2020-21 season as not even the most discussed team in their division. That honor goes to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have owned the offseason by signing Tom Brady and trading for Rob Gronkowski. However, something tells me that flying under the radar is exactly what New Orleans wants.

There is no denying that the Saints have a talented and deep roster. The strength of their roster was highlighted when New Orleans managed to go 5-0 while Drew Brees was out with an injured thumb. Granted, much of that 5-0 record was a result of stellar play by Teddy Bridgewater, who is now in Carolina. However, Taysom Hill has shown to be solid in flashes under center in creative packages. In addition, the Saints added Jameis Winston on a cheap one-year deal.

New Orleans has won at least 11 games en route to NFC South divisional titles three consecutive years. While the Saints were not tremendously active in the offseason, I love two of their biggest transactions. New Orleans added veterans in two spots with wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders and safety Malcolm Jenkins. Though he just turned 33 years old, Sanders is still a threat on the outside. Look for him to take defensive pressure off their No. 1 receiver, Michael Thomas. In addition, Jenkins will serve as a leader and mentor for the younger players in the secondary.

The San Francisco 49ers are a worthy favorite to win the NFC, but the inconsistent play of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo down the stretch is worrisome entering this season. There is not a team from either the NFC North or NFC East thatâ€™s more complete than New Orleans. This is the year that the Saints get over the hurdle, allowing Drew Brees to play for a second Super Bowl championship in one of the last years of his career.

To Make the Playoffs: Minnesota Vikings (NO: +112)

The Vikings snuck into the NFC playoffs as the sixth seed with a 10-6 record last year. Their playoff berth happened in a year where the conference as a whole was surprisingly down. The NFC West was the only other division in the conference other than the NFC North to have more than one team over .500. In Minnesotaâ€™s division, the Lions were set back by an injury to Matthew Stafford for half the season. In addition, the Bears stumbled to an 8-8 record due to the inconsistent play of Mitchell Trubisky.

I do not see Minnesota coming close to matching their ten wins from a year ago. First, the NFC North should be much more competitive than it was last year. Green Bay may not win 13 games again, but theyâ€™re still the class of the division. Detroit should be competitive with a healthy Stafford, and Chicago has a possible answer at the quarterback position if they turn to Nick Foles.

In addition, the Vikingsâ€™ secondary is a complete mess. They did select three cornerbacks in the draft, most notably Jeff Gladney of TCU. However, are all three rookies capable of replacing the likes of the departed Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, and Mackensie Alexander? Also, though they drafted wide receiver Justin Jefferson with the 22nd overall pick, the Vikings are still likely to feel the effects of Stefon Diggsâ€™ departure.

If Minnesota does not win the NFC North this year, I donâ€™t see them earning enough wins to secure a Wild Card berth. Keep in mind that, starting this year, there are three Wild Card teams in each conference. Even still, Minnesotaâ€™s roster took too much of a hit to overcome the talent that is apparent in each of the other three divisions in the NFC.

Win the AFC South: Tennessee Titans (+165)

The Indianapolis Colts are the betting favorite to win the division at odds of +135. The Colts started generating a lot of buzz when they signed quarterback Philip Rivers. They followed up that momentum with a solid draft, adding wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and running back Jonathan Taylor. Both rookies should have an impact in the offense right away.

Meanwhile, the Titans are somehow falling under the radar after a trip to the AFC Championship last season. Their ground-and-pound approach is not considered â€œsexy,â€ but it proved to be a great formula. Teams in the playoffs wanted no part of tackling Derrick Henry, and I like him to follow up on his rushing title in 2019 with another strong year.

The Titans are the smarter pick over the Colts for one main reason: consistency in their roster. In a year where preseason workouts may be limited or compromised, it will be more difficult for teams with new quarterbacks to assimilate. Rivers and the Colts are likely to go through a learning curve early on, while the Titans will not miss a beat under Ryan Tannehill, who turned his career around last year.

Carolina Panthers UNDER 5.5 Wins

Itâ€™s clear that new head coach Matt Rhule wants to re-build his new team with an emphasis on the defensive side of the ball. Carolina became the first team in the modern era to select exclusively defensive players in the draft. Rhule has always been a defensive-minded coach, and he clearly wants to improve the 23rd-ranked defense from a year ago.

While Rhule has a great long-term record with new teams, it usually takes time for those teams to gel. Carolina spent most of the offseason stripping its roster of older veterans with big contracts and replacing them with younger and more inexpensive players. This ideal is most evident in signing Teddy Bridgewater to a three-year deal while releasing Cam Newton and saving a bunch of cap space in the process.

Rhule may certainly get the Panthers turned around, but it wonâ€™t happen this year. The Saints and Buccaneers are absolutely loaded, and the Falcons are not too far behind. That is six games that will be tough to find one win from. Going 0-6 or 1-5 in the division leaves little room to accrue six total wins to hit the over.

Daniel Jones UNDER 3799.5 Passing Yards

We end our best bets column with one of my favorite player props on the board. Giants quarterback Daniel Jones threw for 3,027 yards in 12 starts as a rookie. He played in 13 games, but he threw for just 17 yards in Week 1. Therefore, his passing yards from 12 games extrapolated over a full season would put him on pace for 4,013 yards.

So why am I so confident in the under 3799.5 passing yards prop? First and foremost, new head coach Joe Judge has vowed to return the Giants to a more physical brand of football. In addition, new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett loved to run the football while he was with the Dallas Cowboys. Look for the Giants to feature running back Saquon Barkley early and often while getting maximum production out of him before he gets up there in age.

In addition, I expect the Giants to be more competitive than their 4-12 record. If they are in closer games, that should result in needing to throw the football less.

Lastly, New Yorkâ€™s schedule is littered with some of the best pass defenses in the NFL. The Giants face the 49ers, Ravens, Steelers, Browns, Bears, and Cowboys. All of those teams ranked in the top ten in pass defense last year. Take the under on Danny Dimesâ€™ passing yards with confidence.