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There are many times in an NFL preseason where futures odds on certain teams can change drastically. The first wave of big changes comes shortly after free agency begins, as many players are on the move all at once. Just look at the impact that Tom Brady signing with Tampa Bay had on their Super Bowl odds!
Another time period where many changes occur is during preseason games. If a certain team looks like they are playing well, or they happen to suffer an unfortunate injury to a key player, that team’s odds can change considerably.
A third key event that impacts futures odds considerably is the NFL draft. Now that the draft is over, we will take a look at the biggest odds changes in a variety of categories. What teams have shorter odds to win their conference or the Super Bowl? Was any team’s projected win total affected significantly by the draft? What did the draft do to change any players’ futures?
Here are the most significant futures odds changes, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The original odds were as of April 3rd, while the newer odds are in effect today.
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Super Bowl Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from +1700 to +1500)
Tampa Bay continues to gain momentum and the respect of the oddsmakers. This change is, in part, a reflection of trading for the retired Rob Gronkowski and reuniting him with Tom Brady. However, the Buccaneers were thought to have had a good draft as well. They traded up one spot to make sure they did not miss out on one of the draft’s best linemen in Tristan Wirfs.
Wirfs is versatile, having played both left and right tackle at Iowa. Last season, he gave up zero sacks while playing both positions. Wirfs will be essential to keeping Tom Brady upright and allowing this offense to gel. He will also look to help improve a running game that finished 28th in yards per carry last year.
Buffalo Bills (from +2200 to +2700)
The Bills’ decrease in odds is somewhat surprising since they were thought to have had a solid draft. Though they lacked a first-round pick, they treated new receiver Stefon Diggs as that pick since they had to move out of the No. 22 draft slot to acquire him. In addition, they found a first-round talent at edge rusher in the second round in A.J. Epenesa. The Bills also drafted a complement to Devin Singletary in the third round with Utah’s Zack Moss.
However, sometimes a change in odds is not about what the team itself does but rather what the teams around them do. The Chiefs and Ravens are both arguably better than last year after solid drafts. In addition, with the New England Patriots’ decision not to draft a quarterback, it’s open to speculation if they will now pursue a veteran free agent like Cam Newton. With the top of the conference all improving, the Buffalo’s odds to win the AFC have also dropped from +1000 to +1300.
Odds to Win the Conferences
In the NFC, the three biggest favorites before the draft all saw their odds get even shorter afterward. The San Francisco 49ers improved from +480 to +460. The New Orleans Saints went from +700 to +650. Lastly, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers improved from +800 to +700. Thus, it will be interesting to see if these three teams separated themselves a bit from what was a very competitive conference last year.
In the AFC, the only real significant change at the top was the Baltimore Ravens improving from +420 to +340. The Ravens were thought to have had an outstanding draft. They filled one of their biggest draft needs with one of the best players at his position with inside linebacker Patrick Queen. In addition, Ohio State running back J.K. Dobbins will provide depth for what is already the league’s most potent rushing attack.
Projected Win Totals
The Green Bay Packers saw the largest change in their projected win total after the draft. Oddsmakers lowered Green Bay’s projected win total from 10 to nine wins. Many experts assumed the Packers would “go for it” this year by getting quarterback Aaron Rodgers some offensive help early and often in the draft. However, Green Bay drafted Rodgers’ heir apparent in the first round in Utah State quarterback Jordan Love. They also selected running back AJ Dillon in the second round, which was a peculiar move considering the big year that Aaron Jones had last year.
MVP Futures Odds
Dak Prescott (from +1400 to +1200)
CeeDee Lamb, arguably the best wide receiver in the draft, fell to Dallas with the No. 17 pick. Though Dallas had other holes to fill, they could not pass up the talented Lamb. Owner Jerry Jones salivated at the thought of pairing Lamb with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup in the receiving corps. Also, the presence of Lamb should stand to open things up for running back Ezekiel Elliott, as fewer teams will be able to stack the box. All of this adds up to a projected big year for Dak Prescott and a much-improved case for MVP.
Aaron Rodgers (from +2000 to +2300)
As previously mentioned, the Packers did not do much to help Aaron Rodgers through the draft. They selected tight end Josiah Deguara in the third round and added two offensive linemen in the sixth. While Green Bay could have had an impact wide receiver with the 26th overall pick, they instead looked to the future by selecting Jordan Love. As a result, Rodgers’ MVP odds took a hit.
Cam Newton’s Week 1 Team Odds
When certain teams solidified their quarterback position in the draft while others passed on the position altogether, all of these moves impacted the odds for where Cam Newton will land this season. Before the draft, the Dolphins and Chargers were thought to be the top two landing spots. However, each of these teams selected young quarterbacks, and thus are unlikely to be in the market for Newton anymore.
Here are the biggest changes in odds to acquire Cam Newton: Jacksonville Jaguars (from +350 to +200), New England Patriots (from +600 to +220), Washington Redskins (from +1000 to +500).
Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
A.J. Epenesa (from +2000 to +1200)
Epenesa is a powerful and versatile edge rusher who will earn significant playing time in Buffalo in year one. Head coach Sean McDermott always churns out solid defenses, and Epenesa finds himself in a great scheme that can utilize his strengths.
Patrick Queen (+1600 to +1200)
The Baltimore Ravens had to be ecstatic that Queen fell to them with the 28th pick. Queen was the defensive MVP of the National Championship Game last season, so he knows how to perform in big spots. Inside linebacker was perhaps the only weak link in a Ravens defense that finished fourth overall last year. Queen does not have to carry the load by himself but he nonetheless lands in a great situation for the spotlight to shine on him this year.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.