NFL Futures: Early Week 1 Lines Review & Picks (2020)
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All around the league, organizations tuned in on Thursday night as the NFL released its schedule for the upcoming season. Thus, teams learned when their bye week is, how many primetime games they earned, and most importantly who they play in Week 1. Now, all we have to do is cross our fingers that the season starts as planned.
The folks at FOX Bet Sportsbook released their lines for all the Week 1 action minutes after the schedule was released.
Let’s take a look at the point spreads for each game and offer our advice for every matchup.
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Thursday, September 10th – 8:20 PM EST
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs open the season at home in primetime. This matchup against the Texans is a rematch of a wild Divisional Round game from last year. In that game, the Texans raced out to a 24-0 lead only to be ambushed and outscored 51-7 for the rest of the game.
One would think that defending Super Bowl champions would be distracted by all the emotions that come with raising a banner in Week 1. However, the champions are 13-6-1 ATS since 2000 in Week 1.
It will likely take some time for Houston’s offense to get used to playing without DeAndre Hopkins. I do not see the Texans being able to score enough to keep pace with the Chiefs. Do not be afraid to lay this big number early in the season.
Sunday, September 13th – 1:00 PM EST
Seattle Seahawks (-0.5) at Atlanta Falcons
If there is ever a good time for a west coast team to travel east for a 1:00 kickoff, it is Week 1. Seattle well have plenty of time to get acclimated to the eastern time zone. The Seahawks have their eyes set on an NFC West division title, and that begins with a big win over an Atlanta team that has disappointed the last few seasons.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-9)
“Revenge†is the theme for the Ravens in Week 1. One of Baltimore’s two regular-season losses last season was a 40-25 home trouncing at the hands of the Browns. In addition, quarterback Lamar Jackson will be out to prove he is better than his lackluster playoff performance.
However, given the success that Cleveland has had in Baltimore, this number is too big to pass up. The Ravens will ultimately show they are the class of the division, but this game will be closer than the oddsmakers suggest.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-6)
The Jets and Bills meet in Week 1 for the second straight season and third time in the last four years. New York squandered a 16-0 lead at home in Week 1 last year, eventually losing 17-16. They then beat the Bills in Buffalo in Week 17 in a game where Buffalo rested their starters.
Both teams are optimistic entering this season now that Tom Brady is out of the division. The Bills will prove to be a better team throughout the season, but I will take the points in what should be a low-scoring Week 1 battle.
Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers (-1)
Many things will feel new about this Week 1 matchup. The Raiders are representing a new city, while the Panthers have a new head coach in Matt Rhule and a new quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater. It what may be a compromised off-season, I will take the Raiders who have more continuity on their roster.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-2)
Detroit welcomes back quarterback Matthew Stafford who missed the final eight games of last season with a back injury. Meanwhile, we will wait and see if the Bears name Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles their Week 1 starter. Look for the Lions to play inspired with their leader back under center and pick up a key divisional win to start the season.
Indianapolis Colts (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars
This are a lot of points to lay between divisional opponents with the favorite on the road. However, Indianapolis will look to start strong behind new quarterback Philip Rivers. It will be interesting to see how the Colts utilize two of their key rookies in Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr.
The Jaguars project to be one of the worst teams in the league and their miserable season begins with a blowout loss to Indianapolis.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
This battle between NFC North rivals may go a long way in determining the division champion at season’s end. The Packers caught a lot of flack for the way they drafted, not providing Aaron Rodgers with much immediate help. We will see if that comes back to bite them this year. The Packers went 2-0 against Minnesota last year, and I expect them to make it a third straight win.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5)
With each passing day, it is looking like Jarrett Stidham will be New England’s Week 1 starting quarterback. As vulnerable as New England appears heading into the season, this looks an awful lot like a spot where Bill Belichick and the Patriots silence any doubters. New England will get revenge for a Week 17 home loss to Miami that cost them a first-round bye in the playoffs.
PICK: New England Patriots -6.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-6) at Washington Redskins
If the Eagles are serious about winning the NFC East for the second consecutive year, they must take care of business in games against the Redskins and Giants. Quarterback Carson Wentz should play with more fire this year after the team drafted Jalen Hurts. New Redskins head coach Ron Rivera has what it takes to turn the fate of the franchise around, but the 2020 campaign will start with a divisional loss.
Sunday, September 13th – 4:05 PM EST
Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 at Cincinnati Bengals
Once the Bengals officially parted ways with quarterback Andy Dalton, it solidified the fact that Cincinnati was officially now Joe Burrow’s team. His tenure will not get off to an easy start in Week 1, as he faces the sixth-ranked defense from a year ago. However, Burrow’s composure and poise are off the charts and he will not be rattled early in his career. The Bengals may not win the opener but should be able to keep it within a field goal.
Sunday, September 13th – 4:25 PM EST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
The NFL schedule makers gave us a true Week 1 gift. We do not have to wait to see Tom Brady face Drew Brees in a matchup of what should be the two best teams in the NFC South. The Saints roster is mostly intact from last year, except for the key additions of Emmanuelle Sanders and Malcolm Jenkins. Meanwhile, Brady has to assimilate to head coach Bruce Arians’ new offense. Purely because of familiarity, the edge goes to New Orleans in Week 1.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-9)
In the preview of Kansas City’s home opener, we discussed how well defending Super Bowl Champions have played in Week 1. On the contrary, the teams that lost the Super Bowl are an abysmal 3-16-1 ATS in Week 1 the following season. Given this trend and the fact that Arizona is a divisional opponent familiar with San Francisco’s scheme, nine points are too much to lay.
Sunday, September 13th – 8:20 PM EST
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams
How will the Rams offense look in the first season without running back Todd Gurley? Will Dak Prescott have his long-term deal signed, or will there be any hard feelings over their dispute entering the season? What will the Cowboys offense look like under new coach Mike McCarthy?These are some of the many questions surrounding the matchup between these two playoff hopefuls. I will side with the Rams at home since they have fewer question marks than the Cowboys.
Monday, September 14th – 7:15 PM EST
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at New York Giants
The Pittsburgh Steelers had a tremendous year going 8-8 last season even though Ben Roethlisberger missed 14 games. That is a testament to the depth of their roster and their outstanding defense. Steelers fans always travel well to New York, so look for Pittsburgh to win this opener in what will feel like a home game.
PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Monday, September 14th – 10:10 PM EST
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos -2.5
This line is odd considering the Titans made it all the way to the AFC Championship game last season. While Denver is a tough place to play, the Titans should be able to take the crowd out of it with their strong running game. In addition, it will take the Broncos offense time to gel given the number of young players on their roster. Denver will get better as the season goes on, but should not be favored over a strong Titans team this early in the season.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.