NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer (Giants vs. Patriots)
Week 13 closes in Foxborough with a matchup between two franchises boasting completely different records. New England's offense has found rhythm at home, while the Giants come in searching for stability and consistency with rookie QB Jaxson Dart back from his concussion. Expect plenty of pressure on both quarterbacks, and the spread coming down to who makes the most under duress.
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Monday Night Football
New York Giants at New England Patriots - Monday, 8:15 PM ET (ESPN)
Erickson's Pick: Over 46
Confidence: ★★★★
Trends:
- The Patriots have won each of their last nine games.
- The Giants have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games as underdogs after coming off overtime.
- The Giants have scored the first touchdown in 10 of their last 11 games.
- The Giants have lost 11 straight as road underdogs
- The Giants have lost 21 of their last 25 road games.
- With Jaxson Dart, the Giants have gone 1-3 ATS in his four road starts.
- New York is 8-15 ATS as a road underdog since 2023 (3-19 straight up).
- The Patriots are 3-3 ATS at home this season (6-0 on the road).
- 9 of the Patriots' last 12 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
- NY is 4-3 O/U on the road this season (3 of last four have gone over the points total)
Overall:
This one screams live-bet. The Giants have been weirdly reliable scoring early (9-3 ATS in the first quarter) while New England has been bad defending opening drives (4-8 SU in the first quarter) - so the best approach is waiting for NYG to jump out 3-0 or 7-0, then buying the Patriots at a discount.
Note this only lasts for the first quarter. Pats are 10-2 on the first-half money line. Giants are 2-10 (lol).
Per Next Gen Stats, since Jaxson Dart took over as the starter in Week 4, the Giants have averaged 6.9 yards per play (4th-most), recorded a 55.7% success rate (2nd-highest), and scored 6 touchdowns on 9 opening drives.
Dart has completed 15 of 20 passes for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Jameis Winston has completed 5 of 6 passes for 106 yards and a touchdown. The Patriots have allowed a league-high 7.5 yards per play and 59.0% success rate on opening drives this season, with opponents scoring 6 touchdowns and 3 field goals on 12 opportunities.
The Giants are +135 to score first.
Pre-game lean is towards the Pats, but the real edge lies in timing the market after the first Giants' drive. I'd be lying if I said I was in love with the Pats -7.5. In fact, the more I read my own analysis, I think the Giants plus the points will be the play - although I hate betting against my own team. Hence, my desire to live bet NE at a better number based on how each team has started games this season.
Or just bet the game total.
The Patriots and Giants rank last and second-to-last in red zone defense this season.
So that's really where my favorite pre-game bet comes into play. The game total over. Neither of these defenses is particularly great...given the sheer amount of injuries on both sides projected for this game. The Giants just fired their defensive coordinator because they have been so bad.
The Pats defense has lost major interior depth on the DL with guys Milton Williams and Khyiris Tonga getting banged up. After not allowing a 50-yard rusher through nine weeks, the Pats have allowed at least 53 or more rushing yards to an opposing RB.
I also understand the Pats have injuries on their offensive line. Will Campbell has since been placed on injured reserve and guard Jared Wilson, meanwhile, is considered week-to-week.
Even so, Drake Maye can make plays off script. Maye is the only quarterback in the NFL who has generated positive win probability added (+4.7%) on pressured dropbacks this season. His 1,038 passing yards under pressure clear the next-closest player by more than 200, while his 9 touchdowns under pressure are 2 more than any other quarterback. His 8.8 yards per attempt when facing pressure is the 4th-highest mark by a qualified quarterback since 2018 (Next Gen Stats).
Even so, both ground games have the chance to generate explosive plays.
Tyrone Tracy has recorded 62+ rushing yards in each of the Giants’ last three games. He is coming off back-to-back 23-touch games with 130-plus yards from scrimmage.
According to Next Gen Stats, Following Rhamondre Stevenson’s injury in Week 8, TreVeyon Henderson’s snap share increased from 19.3 snaps per game in Weeks 1-8 to 49.8 snaps per game in Weeks 9-12. Within the last four games, Henderson has averaged 5.1 yards per carry (6th-most, min. 30 carries), up nearly a yard (4.3) from his yards per carry through the first 8 games. 67.7% of Henderson's attempts have been directed toward the strong side of the formation in those four weeks, and he has tallied 4 touchdowns (t-most), forced 14 missed tackles (t-most), and gained an average of 4.9 yards after contact (3rd-most, min. 10 such carries) on such carries. The Giants have allowed 6.7 yards per carry to RBs rushing to the strong side, a full yard more than any other team. They have allowed the most yards before contact (2.1) and yards after contact (4.6) in the NFL on such runs.
The Pats’ defense has allowed the lowest percentage of rushing TDs this season. Ie...if the Giants score, it will likely be through the air inside the red zone. Big Blue TE, Theo Johnson, has been Dart's favorite red-zone target this season with 12 total looks in the red zone (5 TDs).
Solid bet at +280 to score and 18-1 to score the first TD in the game.
Props:
Full MNF Card:
- Giants score 1st (+135)
- Over 46