NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: 49ers vs. Bears (2022)
Here is my preview and best bet for the 2022 NFL Week 1 game between the 49ers and Bears.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sep. 11, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Soldier Field
- TV: FOX
49ers at Bears: Consensus Lines
Lines from our BettingPros odds page and as of Sep. 1.
- Spread: 49ers -7
- Over/Under: 41.5
- Moneyline: 49ers -315, Bears +240
49ers at Bears: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sep. 1.
- Spread: Bears – 24% bets, 68% money
- Over/Under: Over – 45% bets, 49% money
- Moneyline: Bears – 39% bets, 53% money
49ers at Bears: Key Injuries
San Francisco 49ers Injuries
- C Daniel Brunskill (hamstring) – week to week
- CB Jason Verrett (knee, PUP)
- S Jimmie Ward (hamstring, IR)
Chicago Bears Injuries
- C Lucas Patrick (hand) – out indefinitely
- RG Dakota Dozier (knee, IR)
- WR N’Keal Harry (ankle, IR)
- WR Byron Pringle (quad) – questionable
- CB Tavon Young (leg, IR)
Injury Analysis
Over the past three years, Brunskill has made starts at literally every spot on the offensive line. After starting 20 games at right guard last year, he’s expected to shift to the pivot in place of retired C Alex Mack. If he misses Week 1, that would mean that the 49ers would have three new starters on the interior of their offensive line — minus Brunksill, Mack and LG Laken Tomlinson (free agency), as well as competent backup G/T Tom Compton (free agency) — and that could be detrimental to new starting QB Trey Lance.
It’s also notable that the 49ers will be without two starters in their secondary (Verrett and Ward), which leaves them incredibly thin, given the offseason departures of starters CB Josh Norman, CB K’Waun Williams and S Jaquiski Tartt, as well as depth S Tavon Wilson.
As for the Bears, they will be without one projected starter on the offensive line (Dozier), and they could be without another one (Patrick), which feels like a big problem, as the team lost starters LT Jason Peters, RT Germain Ifedi and RG James Daniels this offseason. They will also be without Young at slot corner and maybe Pringle as the No. 2 wide receiver.
49ers at Bears: Situational Spots
San Francisco 49ers Situation
After an offseason filled with more than a soupçon of quarterback intrigue, the 49ers get to ease Lance into his new starting role with two season-opening cupcake contests against the Bears and Seahawks.
But they better win those first two games, because they open the year with 4-of-6 away and then face the Chiefs and Rams in Weeks 7-8. If the 49ers are 3-5 entering the Week 9 bye, Lance will start in Week 10. But if they’re 2-6, fans will call for HC Kyle Shanahan to reinstate backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter.
Chicago Bears Situation
After hosting the 49ers in Week 1, the Bears play 5-of-7 away, with three of those games coming in primetime. Only once in Weeks 1-8 are the Bears favored in the lookahead market. It could be a rough first half of the season for QB Justin Fields and new HC Matt Eberflus.
49ers at Bears: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
San Francisco 49ers Trends
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 16-24-1 ATS (15.3% ROI for faders) as favorite (including postseason)
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 15-21-1 ATS (14.1% ROI for faders) without Garoppolo as starter
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 0-4-1 ATS (55.0% ROI for faders) in Week 1
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 27-17 ATS (19.4%) on road (including postseason)
Chicago Bears Trends
- QB Justin Fields: 3-7 ATS (35.4% ROI for faders) overall
- QB Justin Fields: 1-4 ATS (53.1% ROI for faders) at home
- QB Justin Fields: 7-3 (34.6% ROI) to the under
49ers at Bears: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
San Francisco 49ers Offense vs. Chicago Bears Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.085 | 6 | 0.032 | 22 | 16 |
| Total SR | 45.5% | 12 | 44.5% | 15 | 3 |
| Total DVOA | 14.9% | 5 | -0.9% | 13 | 8 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.174 | 5 | 0.076 | 20 | 15 |
| Dropback SR | 47.7% | 13 | 46.6% | 15 | 2 |
| Pass DVOA | 32.7% | 5 | 2.3% | 12 | 7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.6% | 17 | 9.6% | 1 | -16 |
| Rush EPA | -0.024 | 8 | -0.023 | 26 | 18 |
| Rush SR | 42.8% | 9 | 41.9% | 23 | 14 |
| Rush DVOA | 7.0% | 4 | -4.3% | 24 | 20 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.40 | 11 | 4.41 | 20 | 9 |
| Yards per Play | 6.1 | 1 | 5.3 | 11 | 10 |
| Points per Game | 25.1 | 13 | 23.9 | 22 | 9 |
| Rd vs. Hm DVOA | 11.2% | 7 | -13.4% | 2 | -5 |
San Francisco 49ers Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2021: Trey Lance
- EPA + CPOE: 0.0.39 (No. 28, if qualified)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 9.5 (No. 3, if qualified)
- AY/A: 8.6 (No. 3, if qualified)
- QBR: 33.4 (No. 29, if qualified)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.52 (No. 31)
Chicago Bears Offense vs. San Francisco 49ers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.087 | 29 | 0.004 | 14 | -15 |
| Total SR | 41.4% | 26 | 41.7% | 5 | -21 |
| Total DVOA | -13.6% | 26 | -7.4% | 7 | -19 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.077 | 29 | 0.098 | 23 | -6 |
| Dropback SR | 43.6% | 27 | 46.2% | 13 | -14 |
| Pass DVOA | -5.3% | 26 | 5.1% | 15 | -11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.5% | 32 | 8.0% | 5 | -27 |
| Rush EPA | -0.105 | 23 | -0.151 | 2 | -21 |
| Rush SR | 37.7% | 25 | 34.2% | 2 | -23 |
| Rush DVOA | -13.5% | 23 | -24.8% | 2 | -21 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.06 | 23 | 3.56 | 2 | -21 |
| Yards per Play | 4.9 | 26 | 5.1 | 3 | -23 |
| Points per Game | 18.3 | 27 | 21.5 | 9 | -18 |
| Hm vs. Rd DVOA | -12.5% | 26 | -7.1% | 7 | -19 |
Chicago Bears Quarterback Statistics
2021: Justin Fields
- EPA + CPOE: 0.0.14 (No. 34)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 9.7 (No. 2)
- AY/A: 5.8 (No. 28)
- QBR: 26.4 (No. 31)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -1.56 (No. 46)
Key Matchup: Justin Fields vs. 49ers Secondary
As noted earlier, the 49ers are without starters CB Jason Verrett and S Jimmie Ward — and over the offseason they lost starters CB Josh Norman, CB K’Waun Williams and S Jaquiski Tartt.
As bad as the Bears offense was last year, it wasn’t much worse in dropback EPA (No. 29) than was the 49ers defense (No. 23). And based on our FantasyPros unit power rankings, Fields isn’t at a massive disadvantage against the 49ers secondary.
| Rank | Quarterback | Offense | Opp Defense | Defense Rank | Secondary Rank | QB-Def Edge | QB-Sec Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Justin Fields | CHI | SF | 4 | 16 | -16 | -4 |
Sure, Fields has a tough matchup overall. We have the 49ers defense ranked No. 4, thanks mainly to their strong defensive line (No. 2) and off-ball linebackers (No. 1). But Fields — the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback as a high school recruit in 2018 — might have the scrambling ability to escape the pocket and pick up chunk yardage on the ground (72-420-2 rushing last year; 3.72 yards after contact per carry, No. 2 at position, per PFF).
And he probably has the weapons in WR Darnell Mooney and TE Cole Kmet to attack the 49ers downfield and between the numbers.
I’m not going to put too much stock in preseason performance, but Fields looked good in August with 243-3-0 on 23-of-30 passing and 4-44-0 rushing — better than all the other quarterbacks in his draft class.
And it’s not unthinkable for a first-round quarterback to take a significant step forward in his second season.
The Bears should absolutely lose this game, but the 49ers secondary might help them make it look almost respectable in the fourth quarter.
Bet: Bears +7 (-110, BetMGM)
Personal Projection: Bears +4.5
Limit: Bears +6
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